The struggle for a smarter world

The coming knowledge society will see an acceleration in the trend towards increasing human intelligence begun hundreds of thousands of years ago. Many converging technologies will facilitate this acceleration of intelligence, including psychopharmacology, genetic engineering, nanotechnology and communications technology. The accelerating increase in intelligence will not just be in individual brains, but also in the social, political and economic systems that link those brains together. From growing individual and social intelligence we will create increasingly accurate models of the way the social and natural world works, and how best to achieve human ends. But the struggle for a smarter world will require a political struggle for greater liberty and equality to enable everyone to participate fully in social decision-making and to benefit from human enhancement.     

The pricing of capital assets in a multiperiod world

This paper proposes a general framework for the pricing of capital assets in a multiperiod world. Under quite general conditions, the analysis shows that the equilibrium expected nominal return on any asset can always be expressed as the sum of the risk-free rate and various risk premiums. The first risk premium is identical to the usual risk premium in the Sharpe-Lintner-Mossin capital asset pricing model. The mathematical forms of all the remaining risk premiums are identical even though each individual risk premium may be present for a different reason.     

The tragedy of the commons in a violent world

Earlier research has shown that the tragedy of the commons may be resolved by Folk theorems for dynamic games. In this article, we graft on a standard natural‐resource exploitation game the possibility to appropriate the resource through violent means. Because conflict emerges endogenously as resources get depleted, the threat supporting the cooperative outcome is no longer subgame perfect, and thus credible. The unique equilibrium is such that players exploit noncooperatively the resource when it is abundant, and they revert to conflict when it becomes scarce. The players' utility is shown to be lower even if conflict wastes no resources.     

The IMF in a world of private capital markets

In analyzing the IMF attempts to stabilize private capital flows, we contrast cases where banks and bondholders do the lending. Consistent with banks’ natural advantage in monitoring, they reduce spreads as they obtain more information through repeat transactions with borrowers. By comparison, repeat borrowing has little influence in bond markets, where publicly-available information dominates. But spreads on bonds are lower when they are issued in conjunction with an IMF-supported program, as if the existence of a program conveys positive information to bondholders. The influence of IMF monitoring in bond markets is especially pronounced for countries vulnerable to liquidity crises.     

Transitions in a globalising world

The increasing complexity of our global society means that sustainable development cannot be addressed from a single perspective or scientific discipline. By using the concept of transitions, we examine current and future tensions between welfare, well-being and the environment, and focus on four major issues that are of global importance: two of our key natural resources, water and biodiversity; the health of human populations; and the developments related to global tourism. In our global assessment, we base ourselves on the most recent scenario efforts of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). Future developments are explored along the lines of four development paths (scenario groups), defined along two dimensions (global versus regional dynamics and emphasising economic objectives versus environmental and equity objectives.     

The world economy

The World Economy And The German Economy In The Spring Of 1991

The world economy     

The world economy

The World Economy And The West German Economy In The Spring Of 1988

The world economy