Commercial Real Estate Valuation: Fundamentals Versus Investor Sentiment

This paper investigates the role of fundamentals and investor sentiment in commercial real estate valuation. In real estate markets, heterogeneous properties trade in illiquid, highly segmented and informationally inefficient local markets. Moreover, the inability to short sell private real estate restricts the ability of sophisticated traders to enter the market and eliminate mispricing. These characteristics would seem to render private real estate markets highly susceptible to sentiment-induced mispricing. Using error correction models to carefully model potential lags in the adjustment process, this paper extends previous work on cap rate dynamics by examining the extent to which fundamentals and investor sentiment help to explain the time-series variation in national-level cap rates. We find evidence that investor sentiment impacts pricing, even after controlling for changes in expected rental growth, equity risk premiums, T-bond yields, and lagged adjustments from long run equilibrium.

关于中国房地产税费改革的基本看法

贾康在《关于中国房地产税费改革的基本看法》一文中将我国房地产税费的基本现状概括为“两个双轨制”和“一个不规范”：内外资“双轨”、城乡双轨以及正税与收费的不规范。指出这种税费的不规范和现在整个市场经济发展的取向是越来越不相容的。认为要把税费的改革放在一起考虑,把那些不合理的收费取消,开征统一的物业税,并把其培育成为地方政府的一个支柱性的主体税种。     

新一轮房地产调控政策的特征、影响及对策建议

本文从不同角度对国务院新国八条与前两轮房地产调控政策进行了比较.相对而言,新国八条具有调控目标要求量化、调控力度加大、地方政府作用强化等主要特征.各地在贯彻新国八条精神基础上制定的调控细则均对本地房地产市场产生了一定程度的影响,导致了成交量与价格的异常波动.本文认为,各地从制度层面着手,明确房地产调控的目标...     

The Earnings of Real Estate Salespersons and Others in the Financial Services Industry

This study explores the determinants of earnings of salespersons in financial services using nationwide data from the 1990 U.S. Census. The study reveals that security and insurance salespersons earn substantially more than do persons in real estate sales. The returns to K through 12 schooling are highest in the insurance and securities areas, while the returns to college are highest in security sales. For males, the returns to graduate education are negative in real estate and insurance. For females in these same areas, returns are large and positive in insurance and negative in real estate. In all areas of financial services, earnings are higher in larger, more wealthy, homogenous cities.     

Real Estate Risk Exposure of Equity Real Estate Investment Trusts

This study examines the linkage between equity real estate investment trust (REIT) returns and the private real estate factor. The results reveal a tighter connection between REIT and the private real estate market starting from 1993. In addition, large-cap REITs seem to behave more like real estate than do small-cap REITs. Overall, the results are consistent with three notions: (1) that institutional investors provide information-gathering services (Bradrinath et al., Rev. Financ. Stud., 8:401–430, 1995), (2) that a more sophisticated investor base improves information flow, and (3) that a high degree of participation from institutional investors strengthens the linkage between REIT returns and the underlying real estate factor (Ziering et al., The evolution of public and private market investing in the new real estate capital markets, Prudential Real Estate Investors, Parsippany, NJ, 1997).

我国房地产信贷调控对房地产周期的影响分析

本文研究房地产周期波动的成因中发现我国历史上有些房地产信贷调控助推了我国房地产周期波动,而对投资性购房实施的逆周期房地产信贷调控平缓了房地产周期波动。通过进一步计量分析房地产信贷与房地产周期的关系,得出我国房地产信贷政策与房地产周期之间的相关结论。最后提出建立逆周期房地产信贷调控机制来熨平房地产周期波动的政策建议。     

中美房地产金融风险比较及我国的应对策略

近年来,伴随我国房地产市场的高速发展,金融特别是银行信贷在不断提供支撑的同时,其面临的风险也不断积聚.美国次贷危机的爆发,让我们有机会冷静审视当前我国房地产金融面临的风险和形势,通过对比.不难发现中关两国房地产金融风险有着许多相似之处.借鉴美国的经验和教训,本文提出应对我国房地产金融风险的对策.     

Investing for the Long-run in European Real Estate

We calculate optimal portfolio choices for a long-horizon, risk-averse investor who diversifies among European stocks, bonds, real estate, and cash, when excess asset returns are predictable. Simulations are performed for scenarios involving different risk aversion levels, horizons, and statistical models capturing predictability in risk premia. Importantly, under one of the scenarios, the investor takes into account the parameter uncertainty implied by the use of estimated coefficients to characterize predictability. We find that real estate ought to play a significant role in optimal portfolio choices, with weights between 12 and 44%. Under plausible assumptions, the welfare costs of either ignoring predictability or restricting portfolio choices to traditional financial assets only are found to be in the order of 150–300 basis points per year. These results are robust to changes in the benchmarks and in the statistical framework.      

A Note on the Earnings of Real Estate Salespersons and others in the Financial Services Industry

The earnings of females in various sales professions are less than their male counterparts. By expanding on the set of variables used by Jud and Winkler we were able to explain a large portion of this differential for most professions. Child rearing and marriage explain much of the differential in income in business sales outside of real estate. These variables fail to explain the remaining large gap in real estate sales, however.     

房地产金融对房地产市场发展的影响研究：北海实证

本文通过向量自回y-5模型（VAR）研究房地产金融对房地产市场的实际影响。选取北海市金融类和房地产市场类等4项指标,建立2个VAR模型系统;利用脉冲相应函数和方差分解方法,分析信贷市场指标变化对房地产市场供需影响的时滞、持续时间及作用强度。结果表明：北海房地产金融市场与房地产市场无论在长期还是短期都存在均衡关系,两者具有一定程度的共生性。基于以上分析,提出相应的政策建议。     

房价小跌怡情

全球经济刚刚从“急救室”里推出来,中国的房地产市场却仍在“高烧”。一些本该用于企业主业的资金被持续投入房地产市场,这些企业的CFO目前的要务,是给自己的决策层适当“降温”。     

正视地产风险

多元化的融资渠道可以提高融资质量、大幅降低风险,避免致地产资金链断裂的情境。2012年10月惠誉发布了最新的《中国房地产开发商评级报告》,其中对行业风险状况的评估进行了更新,在中国本行业内的代表性企业倾向于被评为非投资级,只有极少数公司在BBB级别范围内,这些企业具有较高水平的经常性收入,可优先获取优质土地储备或资金,通常为国家所有。     

江西省房地产市场发展与房地产金融风险关系实证研究

金融危机爆发后,世界主要经济体普遍实行了宽松货币政策。在这一背景下,我国房地产市场强势反弹,销量涨幅创历史新高,成交均价一路走高。2009年,江西省房地产市场实现逆势上扬行情,呈现出投资增速逐月回升,供给面积低位增长,销售规模大幅上升,成交均价一路走高的运行特点。在分析江西省房地产市场运行特点的基础上,本文从实证角度考察了房地产市场发展与金融支持之间的关系。实证结果表明,房地产市场的发展、房价的上涨与金融支持之间具有相互促进、互为因果的密切关系。在此基础上进一步分析了房地产市场发展中隐含的金融风险,并提出相应的对策建议。     

“从紧”下的地产乾坤——访上海原申投资有限公司董事长兼总裁 金银华

没有什么时候能像当今房地产这样火爆,没有什么时候能像现在银行房贷这样高涨。没有什么时候能像目前央行调控这样频繁。2003年的央行上调存款准备金率,被认为是控制商业银行信贷增长过快的开局。2005年进一步的调控,使高热的房地产市场降了温。2007年年内多次上调存款准备金率、多次加息和提高第二套房贷首付。无疑表明央行的调控在逐步升级。     

International Diversification Strategies for Direct Real Estate

This paper will disentangle the performance of international real estate into property type performance and region selection. This helps to create an international diversification strategy for direct real estate. We use constrained cross-section regression with dummy variables for regions and property types to measure the best risk reducer. We analyze the impact of currency changes on total returns by looking at a hedged and un-hedged portfolio, both stock and equally weighted. The findings show that geographic factors have the largest influence on the volatility of international real estate returns. The average variance of the regional effects is higher than the property type effects and therefore the regional effects have a higher influence on the variation of the total portfolio. However, the regional effects are less stable through time, compared with the variance and correlation of the property type effects. Also the property type effect seems to become a more important factor for the return over time, especially when the return is expressed in local currency.     

Spatial Autoregression Techniques for Real Estate Data

This paper describes how spatial techniques can be used to improve the accuracy of market value estimates obtained using multiple regression analysis. Rather than eliminating the problem of spatial residual dependencies through the inclusion of many independent variables, spatial statistical methods typically keep fewer independent variables and augment these with a simple model of the spatial error dependence. We discuss alternative spatial autoregression model specifications, estimation methods, and prediction procedures. An empirical example is provided in the appendix.     

房贷集中度管理 如何影响房地产与银行业?

过去十余年,房地产市场因上下游产业链条长,且横跨生产、消费、流通等领域,对经济增长发挥了拉动作用,但房地产资金与金融体系绑定较重,使其成为现阶段我国金融风险方面最大的"灰犀牛".2020年12月31日,央行、银保监会联合发布《关于建立银行业金融机构房地产贷款集中度管理制度的通知》,明确建立银行业金融机构房地产贷款集中度...     

浅析住房抵押贷款证券化

住房抵押贷款证券化是房地产证券化的一种形式,浅述了住房抵押贷款证券化的涵义和国外的经验,对我国住房抵押贷款市场的局限性进行了分析,阐述了推行住房抵押贷款证券化的必要性和可行性,并重点对我国进行住房抵押贷款证券化提出相应的对策和建议。     

房地产价格、房地产贷款与经济增长研究

本文通过价格传导机制和多元回归分析,将理论与实证结合起来分别研究房地产贷款与房地产价格和经济增长之间是否存在显著的线性相关关系.结果表明,房地产贷款与房地产价格正线性相关;房地产贷款增长与经济增长正线性相关,而且显著性水平都大于99％.本文进而推导出房地产贷款可以作为一种调控房地产价格和经济增长一种常态化调节工具,且具有见效快、反应灵敏和便于操控的优点,同时还可以成为一种反映宏观经济状况的指标.     

重视房地产持有环节税的作用 积极推进房地产税制改革

开征房地产持有环节税①是我国财政体制改革的一项重要内容。本文探讨了现阶段在我国开征房地产持有环节税可以实现的政策目标:构建地方税主体税种,完善分税制财政体制;调节居民收入分配和财富存量,缩小贫富差距;稳定房地产价格,促进房地产市场健康发展;促进节约利用土地资源,保护耕地红线;缓和购房压力,促进一般性消费增长,优化消费结构。