谈谈资产评估的价值基础

古典经济学中的劳动价值论和现代西方经济学中的供求平衡价值理论是资产评估的理论基础.采用现行市价法评估单项资产的价值是市场价值,采用重置成本法评估单项资产的价值主要是非市场价值.目前采用重置成本加和法评估一个持续经营企业的整体资产价值,当物价上涨时作为财务报告的补充资料来增强财务报告的有用性是必要的,但不符合持续经营价值的定义.现行市价法和收益现值法是评估一个持续经营企业的整体价值的有效方法,也是现代西方经济学中的供求平衡价值理论的体现,但现行市价法操作较难,因此整体资产的价值评估应定位于收益现值法.     

当代主流经济学进展对资产评估的启示——以诺贝尔经济学奖为主线分析

资产评估从经济学中产生,是将经济学理论应用于实践的一门学科。经济学理论的发展必将极大地促进资产评估理论、方法、模型的更新与发展。通过对诺贝尔经济学奖这项世界性经济学奖项进行考察,可以发现经济学理论进展对资产评估的重要借鉴意义。     

价值理论和评估理论溯源

在过去十年中,资产评估理论的发展远远落后于评估实践的发展,两者存在严重的不均衡,这已成为制约我国评估业进一步健康发展的重要障碍.因此,在系统引进和学习国外评估界在评估方法等领域成果的同时,应注重对评估理论的研究.对价值理论的认识是评估基本理论研究的一个重要方面.本文将经济学发展史上的相关概念引入评估理论,希望有助于探讨评估学的理论基础.     

新会计准则下基于剩余收益模型的价值评估与价值因素分析

Ohlson（1995）,Feltham and Ohlson（1995,1996）等人在传统股利折现模型（Dividend Discount Model,DDM）的基础上,结合经济学的相关理论,从价值创造的角度考虑“股利是怎么来的”,完整地表达了以会计信息为基础的剩余收益价值评估模型。     

论商誉评估理论的重构

一、商誉是什么无形资产理论是会计理论和评估理论中的一大难题。商誉作为有高度价值又高度不确定的企业资产,如何对其进行科学的确认、计量和评估,令评估师们、会计师们困惑。目前,商誉的评估主要来源于会计理论的两种计价方法:一是超额收益论,也叫预期收益现值法;二是总计价帐户论,即根据企业整体评估价值与各单项资产评估价值之和进行比较确定。“超额收益论”认为,商誉是预期未来收益的现值超过正常报酬的超额利润。美国学者配顿（Ｗ．Ｐａｔｏｎ）和利德尔顿（Ａ．Ｃ．Ｌｉｔｔｌｅｔｏｎ）指出:“如果一家企业有优越的营利能力———…     

资产评估的经济学分析

作者对评估行业存在的基础进行了思考，从经济学角度对资产评估进行了分析，提出新制度经济学是资产评估的经济学基础，而资产评估存在的基础是由其经济学属性所决定的。     

《新经济学原理——论人类社会的能量特性》

目前在投资领域存在的重要问题是资源的价值评估问题，传统的成本理论已经基本失效，采用什么理论来解决这个问题是一个急待解决的问题。这个问题的困难主要体现在资源的价值是跟资源的自然性质紧密相关。而自然性质又是与物理学紧密相关，如何解决这个问题，显然需要借助于物理学、或者与物理学相关的经济学理论。     

资源价值与泛目的资产评估

【摘要】通过提出新的价值理论，解释现有经济学不能解释的问题，提高人们对价值的认识能力，助推社会资源的优化配置，同时提出泛目的资产评估及其方法。     

略论理论经济学与应用经济学的关系

当前经济学研究中存在重实务、轻理论的倾向，这种倾向不利于理论经济学的正常发展，也将阻碍应用经济学的发展。理论经济学是现实经济现象的概括和总结，是各种应用经济学的基础。理论经济学与应用经济学的关系是理论与实践的关系。没有理论基础的论文不能算论文。要提高学生的理论功底，就要使学生深刻理解理论经济学与应用经济学的关系，要改变传统的教学手段和学习方法。     

资产评估的功能和资产评估行业产生、发展的经济学分析

本文根据交易成本理论，对资产评估功能和资产评估行业产生和发展的经济学基础进行分析，指出资产评估行业的产生是经济发展的必然需求，从而揭示了该行业在西方经典市场经济国家中持续发展、经久不衰的原因。本文除了对是否需要进行资产评估进行分析之外，还对资产评估是由企业内部人员来承担还是由企业外部人员来承担的问题进行了分析。本文指出，资产评估行业持续长久的发展，需要该行业能够持续地证明通过评估实现价值发现等功能的交易成本相对于其他制度安排较低。本文旨在提醒我国资产评估行业既要反对资产评估无用论，也要反对资产评估万能论；既要重视企业外部人员评估的作用，也不应当强制性地要求所有的资产评估都由企业外部的人员进行。     

Almanac of anticipations: The age of affluence—of anticipation—of anxiety—of automation—of discontinuity—of longing—of overkill—of space exploration

With this survey of developments in the futures field since 1945, I.F. Clarke completes his present series for Futures. He makes two major points: that forecasting techniques have become essential tools in the management of change; and that nuclear weapons and ecological problems have added a moral dimension to the study of the future. In the next issue of Futures he will start a new series on the range of future-thinking in the USA, from the expectations of the first settlers to the Star Wars programme.     

对基层人民银行科技工作的几点建议

银监会分设后,人民银行将专司货币政策、金融稳定、金融服务三大职能。作为人民银行的分支机构,基层人民银行的工作重心也将从金融监管调整到这三大职能上来。人民银行的科技部门,就要积极运用科技手段,为人民银行履行新的职能发挥“服务、支持、促进、发展”的作用。一、围绕三大职能搭建五大平台经过“六五打基础、七五作准备、八五大发展”几个阶段后,人民银行相继实现了核算电算化、清算网络化和办公信息化。特别是近一两年来,陆续开通了大额支付系统、信贷登记咨询系统、会计四集中系统、金融信息服务网站等系统,人民银行信息化水平又…     

基金公司经营融资融券业务的问题审视

融资融券业务正式运营已经开展,为证券市场带来了革命性的改革,作为证券市场的一大主体,基金公司面对融资融券也迎来了新的发展方向和挑战,本文从融资融券业务的运行机制入手,分析了基金公司融资融券的新契机,并对其即将面临的问题进行审视和剖析,进而提出策略建议.     

社会主义所有制形式的改革、完善与共产党执政能力的提高

在中国,所有制形式的调整、改革与完善,先进生产力的发展,党的执政能力建设,是社会主义建设过程中密切结合在一起的三个不同层面的发展关系.应在相互促进和共同提高中促进社会的和谐发展,保证社会主义现代化建设战略目标的顺利实现.     

金融企业员工考核系统的设计

一、概述 为配合公司人事考核制度的贯彻执行,保证该制度执行过程中各项工作能够长期、高效、准确地完成,我们开发了公司员工考核系统,实现了人事考核工作中员工投票、考核统计、考核信息分析、报表生成等功能,减少了人事部门人员的手工操作,提高了考核工作的自动化程度.     

Summary of Results of Survey of Seminar Attendees

Abstract

The Society of Actuaries undertook a three-phase research project on mortality improvement in the three NAFTA countries: Canada, Mexico, and the U.S. Phase 1 consisted of a literature review of papers on projecting mortality levels in the future and a study of the trend in mortality improvement during this century. Phase 2 consisted of a discussion of different facets of modeling mortality rates at a seminar attended by 79 experts (actuaries, demographers, economists, and medical researchers) representing different countries. The last session of the seminar consisted of the completion of a survey by the attendees to obtain input for Phase 3, which would analyze the impact of mortality improvement on the social security system of each country. This paper summarizes the results of the survey.

The survey results illustrate the difficulty in forecasting mortality levels, because the effects of many factors that could have significant impact on mortality rates are unknown. This suggests the need for dynamic forecasting, which allows for the possibility of random shocks. A majority of the survey respondents believe that stochastic forecasting models, despite their complexity, have significant potential to add value. Respondents also believe that both historical data and cause-specific mortality forecasts are useful as input and also in validating forecasts of the aggregate levels of mortality. The challenge is to develop more sophisticated forecasting models to produce results that are relatively easy to interpret and to communicate these results to the desired audiences, including the public and policymakers.

The survey results suggest that the aggregate effect of lifestyle changes, medical advances, diseases, catastrophe, and physical environmental changes is an increase in life span. However, there is much uncertainty about the future. Respondents expect that beyond the year 2020 the mean annual rate of reduction in mortality for males age 65 and over will average about 0.58% for Canada, 0.76% for Mexico, and 0.67% for the U.S. The results for the female age 65 and over population are 0.64%, 0.83%, and 0.70%, respectively. The age 65 and over population is expected to see larger percentage reductions in mortality than the 0–14 and 15–64 populations. The reductions in male and female mortality will be ultimately the same, and the mortality levels in the three countries will ultimately converge, although differences may persist for decades.     

The Usefulness of Measures of Consistency of Discretionary Components of Accruals in the Detection of Earnings Management

Abstract:  Prior research has shown the prevalence of measurement error in models used to estimate aggregate discretionary accruals. In these models, the incremental information content of the various components of accruals is ignored. Limited prior research and data gathered from firms under Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) litigation indicate that managers use either one or more than one component of accruals simultaneously, in a consistent way to manipulate bottom-line earnings in a given direction. I propose two measures that capture the consistency between the discretionary components of accruals and test their significance in earnings management (EM) detection in firms that have artificially added accrual manipulation and firms that were targeted by the SEC for accrual manipulation. There is evidence that this information is incrementally useful in detecting EM. This finding paves the way for improvements in the discretionary accruals measure by including consistency information from the components of aggregate accruals.     

我国助学贷款改革刍议--"双担保"机制设计

国家新出台的助学贷款政策,还不过是既有的框架下的局部调整,存在诸多不完善的地方。为此,对国家助学贷款应构建高校与就业单位的“双担保”机制。从长期来看,要构建一个系统有效的“政府部门管理和商业银行运作相结合”、“多层次、多渠道、多方式”、“担保和非担保、贴息和非贴息、市场和非市场运作互相补充”的中国教育金融框架。     

Properties of time-series estimates of degree of leverage measures

Empirical studies suggest that time-series regression estimates of the degrees of operating and financial leverage have a tendency to produce measures less than one. According to ex ante theory, these measures should be greater than one for firms operating above the breakeven point. There have also been suggestions that the biases in these estimates may be attributable to an underlying increase in unit sales. This work presents evidence that these counter-intuitive measures are produced by changes in the firm's operating parameters (unit price, variable cost, fixed cost and interest payments). It further suggests that attempts to control for the underlying change in unit sales substantially increase the volatility of predicted estimates.     

浅议金融机构的举证责任

金融纠纷案件是当事人以存单或进账单、对账单、存款合同、保险单、票据、证券等凭证为主要证据向人民法院提出诉讼的案件,对于不同种类金融纠纷的当事人的举证责任,我国现行的金融法律、法规及司法解释有不同的规定。由于金融机构的特殊法律地位,发生金融纠纷时存在有关当事人将最后偿付风险转移给金融机构承担的主观故意,在客观上会使金融机构难以提供相应的证据来对抗不法债权人的诉讼请求,而导致金融机构败诉。为此,对金融诉讼案件中金融机构的举证责任加以研究具有重要的实践意义。