On not doing due diligence: Bagus and Howden on free banking

In their recent article in the Quarterly Journal of Austrian Economics, Bagus and Howden (2010) present “quibbles” with fractional-reserve free banking. Specifically, they raise what they call “unaddressed issues” in this system, with a particular emphasis on Selgin (1988). We deem their arguments to be more substantial than “quibbles” and see them as part of a longstanding debate about fundamental aspects of monetary theory. We respond to their objections and attempt to specify how debate between the two sides might proceed more productively.     

The irrelevant-menu affect on valuation

Three experiments are designed to test if the level of irrelevant prizes in the menu has a positive (assimilation) or negative (contrast) effect on the perceived valuation of target objects. Familiar field prizes and binary lotteries over such prizes are placed within “more-expensive” and “less-expensive” menus. Subjects fill-in a sequence of binary choice problems to reveal their preference between given cash and a designated prize from the menu. Between-subject comparisons reveal that the prize-level in the menu positively affects perceived valuations in spite of procedural attempts to rule out menu-dependent preferences and prohibit experimenter bias. The effect also shows within-subject in auction experiments: the price that subjects are willing to pay for given monetary lotteries significantly increases with the average payoff in the irrelevant-menu. The bias finally manifests even when subjects are led to choose the target lottery, independently, from the underlying menu.     

New EU member states and the Euro: economic readiness,benefits and costs

All of the new EU member states (NMSs) have made a commitment to adopt the Euro. This essay considers the countries’ economic readiness to adopt the Euro as well as the economic benefits and costs of adoption. Paper applies a method suggested by Bayoumi and Eichengreen (1997) and finds that the changes of real effective exchange rates between the Euro area and the new EU member states follow the pattern predicted by the optimum currency area theory. This finding allows the construction of the readiness for adoption index for every NMS. The tangible benefits (for NMSs) of adoption are also examined in this essay. Analyses suggest that the costs of currency exchange and hedging against the uncertainty in foreign exchange markets account for about 0.08–0.012% of the countries’ GDP. In addition, countries that adopt the Euro might expect lower inflation and interest rates. This essay also examines the possible costs of adoption. These are in the forms of the lost ability to use monetary policy tools and set the level of seigniorage. Analysis suggests that many countries had given up their independence over monetary policy even before the accession to the EU. In addition, bigger NMSs have not used seigniorage as the source of fiscal income. However, they used exchange rate flexibility to depreciate their currencies during the recent crisis.     

A regime-switching approach to the study of speculative attacks: A focus on EMS crises

This paper implements a regime-switching framework to study speculative attacks against EMS currencies during 1979–1993. To identify speculative episodes, we model exchange rates, reserves, and interest rates as time series subject to discrete regime shifts between two possible states: “tranquil” and “speculative”. We allow the probabilities of switching between states to be a function of fundamentals and expectations. The regime-switching framework improves the ability to identify speculative attacks vis-à-vis the indices of speculative pressure used in the literature. The results also indicate that fundamentals (particularly budget deficits) and expectations drive the probability of switching to a speculative state. First Version Received: October 2000/Final Version Received: June 2001     

贸易结算货币的新选择:稳定的篮子货币——对“金砖五国”货币合作的探讨

文章研究"金砖五国"货币合作的可能形式,构建了稳定的篮子货币作为贸易结算货币,为货币合作提供政策建议。文章首先考察了汇率之间的关系,认为一种货币的加权几何平均汇率能够消除不同货币表示币值的差异,在此基础上构建了篮子货币指数;其次研究了篮子货币波动最小的货币权重的选取,通过最优化方法获得最优权重;最后模拟计算了"金砖五国"篮子货币的权重,并探讨了如何把篮子货币最优权重转化为具体的货币篮子,同时给出了篮子货币和各国货币之间的汇率关系。     

Converting social conflict: Focal points and the evolution of cooperation

We examine the ability of focal points to transform situations of potential conflict into situations of cooperation. In performing this function, focal points convert “worst-case scenarios” into “better-case scenarios,” which are easier for political economic systems to handle. Focal points thus contribute to the ability of political economies to perform well in the face of less than ideal conditions, enhancing systemic robustness. JEL Code P0     

Still unanswered quibbles with fractional reserve free banking

Anthony Evans and Steven Horwitz readily admit that their own understanding of monetary theory is imperfect, and do not even “attempt a rebuttal of [our] claims.” George Selgin accepts that some of the arguments we put forward in Bagus and Howden (2010) make for “interesting theory”. He fails to rebuff our claim that precautionary reserves are unable to constrain credit creation in a fractional reserve free banking system. While calling for us to provide historical evidence to validate the quibbles we put forward, Selgin himself overstates the evidence. He also claims that we have distorted what he has written, and that we use incorrect monetary theory. These allegations are false.     

Bi‐currency versus Single‐currency Targeting: Lessons from the Russian Experience

This paper examines how the 2005 shift in Russian exchange rate policy from US dollar (USD) single‐currency to USD–EUR (euro) bi‐currency targeting has impacted domestic interest rates. The finding show that this policy shift has disconnected Russian interest rates from US dollar‐denominated interest rates, while instead linking them to a synthetic interest rate composed of USD and EUR rates at the same proportion as that of these two currencies in the currency basket against which the ruble's exchange rate is set. The Russian experience shows that while the adoption of bi‐currency targeting may help ensure that domestic interest rates are less dependent on the monetary cycle of a single country, these rates are instead likely to reflect financial developments in all countries whose currencies are included in the currency basket. This insight is likely to be relevant for other countries that pursue basket‐targeting policies.     

固定汇率体系下的货币政策:对未来中国货币政策的探讨

Using a macro dynamic model that is specified for the current Chinese economy, we investigate the monetary policy in China under the assumption that the capital market was “open” under WTO frame-work while the exchange rate was fixed. Our purpose here is to find whether it is possible for China in this case to keep the effective monetary policy for stabilizing the domestic economy. For this, we suggest some institutional arrangements (or restrictions). Given these institutional restrictions, we find that not only the monetary policy can still be effective but also the fixed exchange regime will strengthen the macroeconomic stability shared by both the domestic economy and the economy of its trade partners. The dynamic analysis of the model further shows that the under-valued RMB is necessary for the target exchange rate to be sustainable. Finally, due to the import pattern of the current Chinese economy, RMB appreciation will not help to resolve the trade deficit problem in the Western economy with respect to China.      

Currency Areas and International Monetary Reform at the Dawn of a New Century

The Asian crisis and the creation of the euro have jump-started once again discussion of exchange rate systems, currency areas, and international monetary reform. The role of power in the international monetary system is discussed and its relevance to analysis of the new euro area as an instigator of change in the power configuration of the system. The dollar, euro, and yen areas have achieved a high degree of price stability, but international efficiency is seriously undermined by exchange rate gyrations of these three currencies. The best path to international monetary reform leads through a new international currency called the INTOR based on a G-3 monetary union platform possibly linked to gold.     

Reserve requirement, reserve requirement tax and money control in China: 1984–2007

In recent years, the People’s Bank of China (PBC) has carried out monetary policy by means of reserve requirement frequently in an effort to hedge the excess liquidity in the banking system. But just like other government taxes, reserve requirement maybe have an optimal required reserve rate (RRR). When the RRR have been raised to the optimal level, the effect of reserve requirement policy in money control and liquidity sterilization should also be withered due to the loss of the “tax base”. Therefore, we establish a theoretical model and analysis framework and make the corresponding econometric test and empirical analysis. The main conclusions are as follows: The optimal RRR in China at present is about 23%. If the RRR is further raised above 23%, the monetary authority should adjust the deposit and loan interest rates, interest margins between deposits and loans and the deposit reserve requirement rate to expand the using scope of the reserve requirement policy. __________ Translated from Jingji Yanjiu 经济研究 (Economic Research Journal), 2008, (10): 37–51     

Fiscal Discipline and Exchange Rate Systems

A new 'fiscal' theory of price determination has implications for exchange rate systems and common currency areas. We show that deeper monetary integration requires the discipline of a Ricardian regime ; that is, the government must guarantee fiscal solvency for any sequence of prices or exchange rates. Particularly striking results are that a currency peg is not credible without the discipline of a Ricardian regime, and a common currency area is not viable if fiscal policy in two (or more) of the countries in the union is Non-Ricardian. Interestingly, constraints written into the Maastricht Treaty are sufficient for a Ricardian regime.     

Economic Growth and Development: Towards a Catchup Model

We develop a model for economic growth applicable to a group of countries, constituting around half of the gross global production, that have been consistently “catching up” to the US since 1960 or so. This group can be termed “the convergence club.” The model has a theoretical basis developed in other publications (cited), but the present work is essentially empirical. It demonstrates that there is a very strong correlation between “catchup” growth, with respect to the US, and an energy proxy (EP). The energy proxy that works best is a linear combination of domestic electric power consumption petroleum (oil) consumption, per capita, compared to the US levels. The results presented here do not constitute a theory of growth, but they are consistent with theory presented elsewhere. On a practical level, we argue that consistent “catchup” trends over the past 40 years can safely be extrapolated for a few more decades for scenario construction purposes. We also believe that the observed catchup trends can be regarded as “potential” mid-term or long-term growth trajectories for transition economies and others that have recently been adversely affected by conflict or mismanagement.     

Coping with Preference Anomalies in Cost–Benefit Analysis: A Market-Simulation Approach

This paper proposes a methodological strategy for cost–benefit analysis (CBA) which does not require the assumption that individuals’ preferences satisfy standard coherence conditions, and so renders CBA immune to the problems generated by preference anomalies. The proposal treats CBA as an exercise in market simulation, based on the measurement of surplus. Anomalies occur when surplus measurements vary according to the hypothetical payment mechanism used. In such cases, the mechanism that is the “closest market analogue” should be used. This approach is used to resolve problems associated with some familiar anomalies, including inconsistencies between “citizen” and “consumer” valuations, and endowment effects. JEL classifications: D61, D63, Q51     

Stability of risk preference parameter estimates within the Becker-DeGroot-Marschak procedure

This paper reports new data from both selling and buying versions of the Becker-DeGroot-Marschak (BDM) procedure. First, when using the selling version of BDM, the cross-sectional mean of CRRA risk preference parameter estimates shifts from a value consistent with “as if” risk-seeking behavior in the early baseline to a value closer to “as if” risk neutrality in the late baseline. Second, when using the buying version of BDM, the cross-sectional mean of CRRA risk preference parameter estimates does not appear to change over time in a statistically significant manner. The cross-sectional mean from the late baseline of the buying version of BDM is closer to “as if” risk neutrality and to the late baseline estimates from the selling version of BDM than it is to either early baseline estimates from the selling version of BDM or typical estimates from the first price auction. Use of dominated offers is correlated with deviations from “as if” risk neutrality; this suggests the possibility that the early deviations from “as if” risk neutrality reflect errors. Electronic Supplementary Material Supplementary material is available in the online version of this article at . JEL Classification D80     

The demand for money and the real exchange rate misalignments in emerging European countries: A nonlinear approach

This paper investigates the extent to which domestic and foreign money balances in emerging European countries are influenced by foreign exchange considerations. A well-specified and stable relationship between real money demand and the exchange rate can be perceived as an important part of a successful monetary policy. This study examines the long-run determinants of real exchange rates (RERs) associated with the behavioral equilibrium exchange rate (BEER) approach and identifies currency misalignments in these countries. The misalignment is later used to test the nonlinear behavior of the demand for money. The results indicate that the RER misalignments have a significant impact on domestic money demand. When the currencies are overvalued, there is a reduction in domestic money demand, and when they are undervalued, there is an increase in domestic money demand. Furthermore, it can be concluded that overvaluation causes an increase in foreign money demand indicating a shift of preference from domestic to foreign currency.     

Experienced Utility as a Standard of Policy Evaluation

This paper explores the possibility of basing economic appraisal on the measurement of experienced utility (utility as hedonic experience) rather than decision utility (utility as a representation of preference). Because of underestimation of the extent of hedonic adaptation to changed circumstances and because of the “focusing illusion” (exaggerating the importance of the current focus of one’s attention), individuals’ forecasts of experienced utility are subject to systematic error. Such errors induce preference anomalies which the experienced utility approach might circumvent. The “day reconstruction method” of measuring experienced utility is considered as a possible alternative to stated preference methods. JEL classifications: D63, Q51     

Solving coordination failure with “all-or-none” group-level incentives

Coordinating activity among members is an important problem faced by organizations. When firms, or units within firms, are stuck in bad equilibria, managers may turn to the temporary use of simple incentives—flat punishments or rewards—in an attempt to transition the firm or unit to a more efficient equilibrium. We investigate the use of incentives in the context of the “minimum-effort,” or “weak-link,” coordination game. We allow groups to reach the inefficient equilibrium and then implement temporary, flat, “all-or-none” incentives to encourage coordination on more efficient equilibria. We vary whether incentives are positive (rewards) or negative (penalties), whether they have substantial or nominal monetary value, and whether they are targeted to a specific outcome (the efficient equilibrium) or untargeted (apply to more than one outcome). Overall, incentives of all kinds are effective at improving coordination while they are in place, but there is little long-term persistent benefit of incentives—once incentives are removed, groups tend to return to the inefficient outcome. We find some differences between different kinds of incentives. Finally, we contrast our results to other recent work demonstrating greater long-term effectiveness of temporary incentives.      

Emerging from the Hobbesian jungle: Might takes and makes rights

The conflict over scarce resources in the Hobbesian jungle may be avoided if rules of obligation delineating property rights develop along with institutions of governance. One possibility is a “duress contract” as the strongest individual threatens others who agree to enslavement. Thus, “might takes rights.” Alternatively, individuals with similar capacities for violence may enter a “consent contract” establishing rules of obligation and then voluntarily participating in governance. They will not agree to a rights assignment that produces less wealth than they expect through violence, however, so “might makes rights.” A might-takes-and-makes-rights analysis is outlined to explain the continuum of legal institutions and property rights allocations that can evolve between these two extremes of duress and consent. Increasingly finely delineated private property rights tend to evolve under institutions produced by consent contracts, while common pool problems tend to arise near the duress contract end of the spectrum. This paper draws from a larger project on “The Evolution of Law” which has been supported by the Earhart Foundation. Discussions with and comments by Randy Holcombe, Kevin Reffit, and two anonymous referees led to significant improvements in the development and presentation of the arguments, as did discussant comments on a related paper made by Douglas Ginsburg and participants in the Friedrich August von Hayek Symposium on “Competition Among Institutions” in Freiburg, Germany, June 1–4, 1994, sponsored by the International Institute at George Mason University and the Walter Eucken Institute, Freiburg.     

Transmission of monetary policy and exchange rate shocks under foreign currency lending

This paper analyses the differences in reaction of domestic and foreign currency lending to monetary and exchange rate shocks, using a panel VAR model estimated for the three biggest Central and Eastern European countries (Poland, the Czech Republic and Hungary). Our results point toward a drop in domestic currency loans and an increase of foreign currency credit in reaction to monetary policy tightening in Poland and Hungary, suggesting that the presence of foreign currency debt weakens the transmission of monetary policy. A currency depreciation shock leads to an initial decline in foreign currency lending, but also in loans denominated in domestic currency as central banks react to a weaker exchange rate by increasing the interest rates. However, after several quarters, credit in foreign currency accelerates, indicating that borrowers start using it to substitute for depressed domestic currency lending.