Axiomatic reference-dependence in behavior toward others and toward risk

Summary. This paper considers the applicability of the standard separability axiom for both risk and other-regarding preferences, and advances arguments why separability might fail. An alternative axiom, which is immune to these arguments, leads to a preference representation that is additively separable in a reference variable and the differences between the other variables and the reference variable. For other-regarding preferences the reference variable is the decision-maker’s own payoff, and the resulting representation coincides with the Fehr-Schmidt model. For risk preferences the reference variable is initial wealth, and the resulting representation is a generalization of prospect theory.Received: 28 April 2004, Revised: 27 April 2005, JEL Classification Numbers: D81, D64.An earlier version of this paper was titled “An Axiomatic Characterization of the Fehr-Schmidt Model of Inequity Aversion.” I am grateful to Rachel Croson, Jill Stowe, and Karl Vind for helpful comments. Financial support was provided by the Private Enterprise Research Center, the Program in the Economics of Public Policy, and the Program to Enhance Scholarly and Creative Activities.     

Plant domestication more rapid under optimizing behavior

We assume that early Neolithic cultivators had an optimizing behavior aiming yield maximization and labor efficiency. Then we conduct a hypothetical optimization exercise by examining which consequences such behavior would have if applied to the cultivation of Near-Eastern wild cereals, especially on their rate of domestication measured by the frequency of non-shattering seeds. Two stages of the cultivation process are analyzed, the harvest and the processing. The harvest stage requires two strategies, one about the state of ripeness at the harvest and the other about the harvesting method. We demonstrate that under an optimizing behavior most mature seeds are harvested—by combining two technologies, ground collection and sickling—and thus this stage leads to no selective pressure. On the contrary, the processing stage, from threshing to storage, leads to positive selection when the products of the two harvests are processed separately, a strategy resulting from labor efficiency and risk minimization. Therefore, and from a theoretical point of view, an optimizing behavior tends to support a rapid pathway toward plant domestication, even though the latter is an unconscious outcome of human behavior.     

Payoff Assessments without Probabilities: A Simple Dynamic Model of Choice

We develop a model which reflects the tendency of people to simplify the decision problems they face. The decision maker chooses among alternate strategies only on the basis of the payoff she assesses she would obtain from them, and these assessments do not explicitly take into account her subjective judgements regarding the likelihood of alternate states of the world. At each stage, the decision maker chooses the strategy that she assesses to give the highest payoff. She updates her assessments adaptively. We show that such behavior leads to maxmin choices. We also consider the decision maker who experiences shocks. Journal of Economic Literature Classification Numbers: C7, D8.     

通向经济一体化：日本政策的演化

2000年10月22日,日本首相森喜朗与新加坡总理吴作栋同意就达成新时代伙伴关系的日新经济协定（JSEPA）于2001年1月展开正式谈判,其依据为日本－－新加坡自由贸易协定（JSFTA）联合研究组2000年9月发表的报告。这是日本首次为一个区域性经济一体化协定进行谈判。在格外强调需要应对全球化和技术进步所引起的挑战时,联合研究组探讨了两国间提出“新时代自由贸易协定”（New Age FTA）建议的各种可能因素,吴总理1999年12月曾提出这一建议。因此,JSEPA标志着日本在加强区域性经济一体化和探索这方面新因素的重大转折点。     

全球经济危机对哈萨克斯坦经济的影响

全球经济危机对哈萨克斯坦的影响广泛且剧烈,在短时期内,作为哈萨克斯坦贸易收入和国际收入主要来源与财政收入重要来源的资源产业的收入大幅度缩减,这势必对哈萨克斯坦的经济发展产生强烈的震荡。对此,哈萨克斯坦采取石油减产保价、通过财政注资刺激实体经济增长、稳定金融系统等途径抗御此次经济危机,将经济危机冲击造成的损失降到最低水平。     

Economic progress of black women

While black women are much closer to earnings parity with white women than is true for black relative to white men, such a comparison is misleading since it ignores maximization of utility (including leisure) by households (not individuals) and sex discrimination.     

Small worlds: Modeling attitudes toward sources of uncertainty

We introduce the concept of a conditional small world event domain—an extension of Savage's [The Foundations of Statistics, Wiley, New York, 1954] notion of a ‘small world’—as a self-contained collection of comparable events. Under weak behavioral conditions we demonstrate probabilistic sophistication in any small world event domain without relying on monotonicity or continuity. Probabilistic sophistication within, though not necessarily across, small worlds provides a foundation for modeling a decision maker that has source-dependent risk attitudes. This also helps formalize the idea of source preference and suggests an interpretation of ambiguity aversion, often associated with Ellsberg-type behavior, in terms of comparative risk aversion across small worlds.     

A more powerful modification of Johansen's cointegration tests

We apply the idea of using reversed time series to improve the power of Johansen tests. We suggest computationally simple variants of the trace and maximum eigenvalue statistics and establish their limit distributions. Both are shown, via simulation, to yield nontrivial power gains.     

The effect of task experience on assessments of auditor expert potential

This paper proposes a model and methodology for studying the effect of experience on an auditor's expert potential. Expert potential is defined as an increase in the expected level of expertise at which an auditor will perform in an arbitrary future task. An auditor's behaviors during performance of a current task are treated as probes of that auditor's knowledge base. From an analysis of the responses thus obtained, inferences are made concerning the effects of task experience on the underlying properties of the knowledge driving task behaviors and on the probability of greater expert-like task behavior in the future. Application of the model is illustrated by evaluating the effects of experience on the expert potential of four first-year auditors who performed audit-related tasks in simulated auditing environments.     

建立东亚自由贸易区前途坎坷

20世纪80年代末,随着冷战的结束,东亚地区国家间的政治、经济和对外关系出现了重大调整,经济贸易合作加强,利益相互依赖加深。世界经济全球化趋势加速发展,地区经济集团组织不断涌现,特别是北美自由贸易区、美洲自由贸易区、欧洲联盟的建立,更加激发了东亚国家建立某种形式的经济贸易合作组织的热情。从20世纪90年代开始,东亚国家接连提出各种建立地区经济合作组织的建议。东亚各国政府首脑一个接一个地提出地区经济合作的建议,宣告了创建东亚地区经济合作组织的时代已经来临。当今国际经济合作和地区经济一体化理论认为,国家和地…     

我国中小企业集群化发展的现状

在经济日益全球化的今天,中小企业发展已经成为一种世界性的经济现象。改革开放20多年来,我国中小企业也得到了迅速发展,目前中小企业在我国经济中正发挥着相当重要的作用,并占据着不可忽视的地位。据统计,到2001年底,我国共有中小企业2930万个(其中个体企业2540万个),从业人员1．74亿人,资本金6．66万亿元。从数量上看,中小企业个数占我国全     

Different ways of knowing: a communicative turn toward sustainability

Despite the urgency of the ecological crisis the steady continuation of environmental degradation suggests that new ways of interpreting problems and acting with environmental integrity may need to be considered. This paper draws on a broad range of contemporary theory to argue that the conventional conceptualization of environmental problems has remained a largely disciplinary-based exercise that has relied on abstracting the environmental issues from their real-world complexity. A practical articulation of the main environmental narratives reveals self-referential discourses whose disciplinary-based practices have insulated these approaches from a broad range of contemporary theorising and different ways of knowing. The dominance of these approaches in environmental policy development has led to the continued acceleration of environmental degradation despite widespread political and social interest in its abatement. This paper provides a critique of methodologies derived from the assumptions of instrumental rationalism, and contemplates the potential for alternative ‘communicative’ approaches and strategies for dealing with environmental policy development and implementation. It is argued that a communicative approach to planning for sustainability represents a more appropriate strategy for mobilising a currently impotent environmental movement. A communicative approach by explicitly dealing with the assumptions and motivations of contested positions in the sustainability debate, it is argued, offers the most pragmatic way of developing change strategies to deal with the complex issues surrounding environmental policy development and implementation.     

A graphical exposition of a more complete Keynesian system

This paper uses an expanded version of the widely cited Smith model to show the classical natural rate of interest and employment results as a special case of a more general Keynesian model. The model's equilibrium level of employment and real interest rate depend on the inflation rate. The classical results apply to changes in the price level while the Keynesian results apply to changes in the inflation rate. The model assumes inflation is anticipated in equilibrium. Violation of the classical results does not depend on market imperfections such as sticky prices or information costs.