我国股票市场行为及其影响因素分析

文章以2000年1月4日至2001年1月2日间在上海证券交易所A股市场交易的股票为样本,借鉴Debondt和Thaler(1985)的研究方法,发现我国股票市场存在明显的“反转趋势”,同时采用多元回归模型,分析影响反转趋势的主要因素,发现影响我国赢家组合和输家组合CAR反转的主要因素有形成期的CAR、换手率和公司资产规模。最后,作者从心理学和我国股票市场的制度背景探讨这种反转趋势的心理成因和制度成因。     

后股权分置改革时代 A股惯性与反转异象研究

本文借鉴了Jegadeesh and Titman（1993）的赢家-输家组合策略的研究方法,对2005年至2009年之间完成股权分置改革的1121只沪深A股的收益进行研究。结果表明：中国股市存在显著的反转效应和微弱的中期惯性效应,并且沪深A股中的惯性与反转效应的表现形式受到股市牛熊转换周期的重要影响。     

中国股市动量投资策略和逆向投资策略的实证研究

本文基于行为金融理论的市场反应不足和过度反应假设，采用“买入过去赢家，卖出过去输家”的投资组合，对中国股市的动量投资策略和逆向投资策略进行实证研究。而且，将Lo和Mackinglay(1990)单期收益分解拓展到多期，对组合收益进行分解。通过对结果的分析，得出了一些有意义的结论。     

恒生指数、B股指数和A股指数过度反应后短期行为分析

本文通过平均收益率计算方法 ,系统地比较了恒生指数、B股指数和A股指数的短期过度反应行为及其后的累积超额收益率变化特征。本文的研究认为 :由于国内股市涨跌停板制度的实施 ,其波动程度已经小于香港股市。国内A、B股市场在发生正向激烈变化后 ,次日往往存在惯性上冲 ,但在第 2到第 3天存在过度反应现象 ;第 5天到第 10天存在明显的反抽 ,即与事件日方向相同的变化。国内股市在发生大幅下跌之后 ,无论哪个市场都有惯性的下跌动量存在 ,A、B股市场的异常波动存在一定程度的“隔年现象”。本文进一步的回归模拟发现 ,在上涨期间 ,香港股市发生异常波动后的第 1天、第 5天和第 10天的累积超额收益率和异常波动的幅度相关 ,B股和A股市场的第 1天和第 5天的累积超额收益率和异常波动幅度相关。而在下跌过程中 ,三个市场都无一例外的和异常波动的幅度强相关     

证券市场过度反应研究综述

对证券市场中过度反应的判断,过度反应理论研究思路进行了梳理,文章对过度反应理论的实际应用——反转交易策略进行了分析,并总结出该领域进一步研究的方向。     

交易量适合作为股价波动信息的代理变量吗?——来自中国沪深股市的证据

本文利用中国沪深股市日交易数据,采用多元GARCH模型从信息传递的角度进行实证研究,结果表明:股价对交易量具有显著的波动溢出效应,但交易量对股价的波动溢出效应不明显。这种波动的单向溢出说明在应对信息的冲击上股价比交易量能更快地做出反应,其后才通过波动溢出在交易量上得到反映,股价波动对成交量波动具有先导作用。因此,从波动冲击传导和信息传递的角度看,单纯地将交易量视为股价变动信息的代理变量还缺乏稳健的统计证据。     

XBRL财务报告与盈余公告后股价漂移现象——基于上交所上市公司的实证研究

本文从盈余信息市场反应的角度,研究了XBRL财务报告这一会计信息标准化措施对资本市场信息反应效率产生的影响。研究发现,我国资本市场存在盈余公告后股价漂移现象,但与大多数研究结果不同,在2007~2011年期间的盈余公告后股价漂移现象存在熊市特征:在此期间,与大多数研究结果一致,未预期盈余为负的股票价格向下漂移;而与大多数研究结果不同,未预期盈余为正的股票价格也向下漂移。同时研究还证明,XBRL财务报告的强制披露显著降低了盈余公告后的股价漂移程度,提高了资本市场的有效性。     

沪、深股市送转股除权效应与预期心理实证研究

本文对我国股票市场是否存在除权效应,即在除权交易日前后,股价会产生异常波动的现象进行了实证分析。结果发现:送、转股的除权事件对于我国证券市场的股价有激励作用,事件本身所隐含的信息对股价也有正向影响,尤其除权交易日前后之股价反应,出现正向异常报酬的情形更加的显著,表明除权行情主要是反应在除权交易日之前,投资者对于除权行情具有"预期的心理"。     

沪、深股市送转股除权效应与预期心理实证研究

本文对我国股票市场是否存在除权效应，即在除权交易日前后，股价会产生异常波动的现象进行了实证分析。结果发现：送、转股的除权事件对于我国证券市场的股价有激励作用，事件本身所隐含的信息对股价也有正向影响，尤其除权交易日前后之股价反应，出现正向异常报酬的情形更加的显著，表明除权行情主要是反应在除权交易日之前，投资者对于除权行情具有“预期的心理”。     

股票市场对盈余管理行为的市场反应分析

会计报告中包舍着盈余管理的信息,会计报告公布日前后股价相对于全年平均股价的变动可以看出市场对盈余管理等信息的反应.二元回归模型显示出会计报告公布日前后平均股价对净利润、经营活动现金流量并不成显著相关,股价受多种因素影响.证券监管部门应对会计报告信息披露进行有效的监管,促进证券业的健康发展.     

The momentum and reversal effects of investor sentiment on stock prices

In this paper, we illustrate the real function relationship between the stock returns and change of investor sentiment based on the nonparametric regression model. The empirical results show that when the change of investor sentiment is moderate, the stock return is positively correlated with the change of investor sentiment, presenting an obvious momentum effect. However, the stock return is negatively correlated with the change of investor sentiment if the change of investor sentiment is dramatic, presenting significant reversal effects. Moreover, the degree of reversal effect caused by extremely optimistic sentiment is greater than that driven by extremely pessimistic sentiment, which shows a significant asymmetry. Our findings offer a partial explanation for financial anomalies such as the mean reversion of stock returns, the characteristic of slow rise and steep fall in China's stock market and so on.     

Is there valuable private information in credit ratings?

Credit rating agencies (CRAs) contend their ratings contain a quantitative assessment based on hard information, and a qualitative adjustment based on private information. We study if the qualitative portion of ratings, generated with the companies’ own private information, contains valuable information for equity investors. We generate predicted ratings based on hard information alone and form portfolios of stocks based on the difference between observed and predicted ratings. Over a sample from 1998 to 2018, we find that stock portfolios formed on the basis of private information generate 2% to 4% in annual risk-adjusted returns. We also find that companies with positive private information have better future accounting performance. Our results suggest that CRAs bring valuable information to the market and investors could benefit from it.     

Market effects of private equity placement: Evidence from Chinese equity and bond markets

Research has provided empirical evidence for the stock market reaction toward private placement; however, similar research has not been conducted in terms of the bond market. Using the event study method, we empirically examine the explanatory power of the signaling, free cash flow, and wealth transfer hypotheses based on the reaction of the stock market, bond market, and firm abnormal returns to the private placement announcement. The results show that the stock market has a negative reaction toward private placement, whereas the bond market has a positive reaction. The results also show that the scale of private placement is correlated with the severity of the market reaction. Abnormal returns indicate no significant change both before and after the private placement, and they are unaffected by the scale of private placement. These results are consistent with the wealth transfer hypothesis; however, the market reaction is not attributable to the signaling hypothesis and the free cash flow hypothesis. Extensive research shows that the abnormal returns of private placement change dramatically in non-state-owned enterprises and firms with low credit rating bonds, whereas the bond maturity has no significant impact on the abnormal returns—the wealth transfer effect of private placement is stronger in non-state-owned enterprises and firms with low credit rating bond.     

The Effect of CEO Stock-Based Compensation on the Pricing of Future Earnings

This paper examines whether CEO stock-based compensation has an effect on the market’s ability to predict future earnings. When stock-based compensation motivates managers to share their private information with shareholders, it will expedite the pricing of future earnings in current stock prices. In contrast, when equity-compensated managers attempt to temporarily manipulate the stock price to maximize their own benefit rather than that of shareholders, the market may not fully anticipate future performance. We find that a CEO’s stock-based compensation strengthens the association between current returns and future earnings, indicating that more information about future earnings is reflected in current stock prices. In addition, we find that the positive effect is weaker for firms that have a high level of signed discretionary accruals or a low management forecast frequency. Overall, our study suggests that on average, equity-based compensation improves the informativeness of stock prices about future earnings, while opportunistic discretionary accruals or lowered earnings guidance hamper this improvement.     

Estimating the Precision of Information on Earnings and Non-earnings Announcement Days,and Its Relation with the Cost of Equity

ABSTRACT

Using daily stock returns, we estimate the precision of information during earnings and non-earnings announcement days, and find that although the precision of information in daily stock returns increases during earnings announcement days, it explains less of the variation in expected returns than the precision of information on non-earnings announcement days. Our findings suggest that the precision of earnings disclosures has a small effect on the cost of equity relative to the precision of information on other days of the year.     

Contrarian strategies and investor overreaction under price limits

This study investigates the effects of price limits on investment performance of contrarian trading strategies in Taiwan’s stock market over the period 1997 to 2006. All contrarian strategies in intraday limit-hit stocks lead to superior returns relative to the benchmark index return, and the findings support the overreaction effect. Also, there is evidence of delayed overreaction reflected by price continuations for the overnight period and price reversals for the subsequent trading day. Moreover, investment performance of contrarian strategies is related to firm characteristics where investors tend to overreact more in small-size, high-turnover, and non-high-tech stocks. Finally, price overreaction is strong for up-hit stocks in the aftermath of catastrophic events. If overreaction exists, price-limit regulation designed to cool off investors and reduce price volatility may not be effective.     

对上证指数波动性的实证分析

股票价格频繁波动是股票市场中最明显的特征之一。ARCH类模型可以成功的预测金融资产收益的方差。通过对我国股价指数的统计描述,表明我国金融资产收益率存在自回归条件异方差,并表现出非正态性。并且应用GARCH、TARCH、EGARCH模型理论,进一步分析了日收益率波动的条件异方差性、非对称性。     

Order Imbalance,Liquidity, and Market Efficiency: Evidence from the Chinese Stock Market

We used data from the Chinese stock market to quantify the amount of time for the market to converge to efficiency. Order imbalance may predict returns when there is no designated market maker. In spite of availability of the direction of trade information in the Chinese stock market, it takes longer for information regarding order imbalance to be incorporated into stock prices in China than in the USA. With information on past returns and order imbalance, it takes between 15 and 30 min to converge to efficiency in the Chinese stock market. The process of converging to efficiency depends highly on liquidity. Copyright © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

中国城市土地市场存在“赢者诅咒”吗？

借鉴相关研究成果,构建一个综合性的时间窗口分析模型,利用我国境内房地产上市公司在20个城市购置的205宗土地作为样本,设置前向与后向共八个事件窗口,定量考察土地市场价格信号对股票市场的影响。实证结果表明：土地市场与股票市场是两个高度关联的市场,两个市场之间存在信号传递作用,短期内具有正向冲击效应,地价信号在土地出让后能够在短期内影响股票收益率,形成对股票价格的短期冲击效应;土地出让价格信号对股票市场的影响具有时间上的不对称性,地价信号对于股票收益率的影响主要发生在土地成交之后,股票市场对于土地竞拍以前的信息没有明显响应;土地市场所发现的价格信号是关联市场价格波动的信号源,改变竞价人的预期是市场稳定的关键。     

Size and book-to-market factors in the relationship between average stock returns and average book returns: some evidence from an emerging market

The present paper examines the association between average stock returns and average book returns and addresses the question as to whether there are common size and book-to-market factors in earnings and returns. The results of the empirical research, conducted in the Athens Stock Exchange, suggest that when the sample firms are grouped into size, book-to-market portfolios stock returns properly reflect differences in the evolution of accounting profitability. Moreover, it is found that the return on investment (ROI) measure contains size and book-to-market factors analogous to the mimic risk factors inherent in stock returns, in the sense that they capture information missed by ROI.