The evolution of commercial banking and financial markets in Taiwan

Over the past five decades, Taiwan has achieved rapid economic development. Correspondingly, Taiwan’s financial system has been gradually transformed from a controlled system into a liberalized one, from a state banking system into a private banking one, and from an inward investment system into an outward investment one. In the financial market, the interest rate and foreign exchange rate have always been completely determined by market forces. As for capital movements, there are no controls on trade-related capital transactions. Only inward investment in stock markets is still subject to a ceiling imposed by the Central Bank. Financial institutions are gradually being liberalized, although the process is rather slow. Many private banks have been established since 1991, creating a competitive situation in the banking sector. Since the financial crisis broke out in East Asia, Taiwan has suffered less from its impact because its economic fundamentals are comparatively sound. However, it will still take a considerable amount of time before Taiwan’s financial system is fully liberalized.     

The two-sided effect of financial globalization on output volatility

This paper provides evidence for a significant relation between international financial markets integration and output volatility. In the framework of a threshold model, it is empirically shown that this relation depends on the financial risk of a country as perceived by investors. In order to proxy financial risk, a financial risk rating employed by multinational firms, banks, and equity and currency traders is used. This rating relies on debt to GDP ratios amongst other indicators. In countries with low financial risk, financial openness decreases output volatility while financial openness increases output volatility in countries with high financial risk. Extensive robustness checks confirm this result.     

The west and China: globalisation and competition in financial services

This paper examines the evolution of the industrial structure of global financial firms since the 1970s, during which time, free market policies dominated theoretical and practical policy discussion. It examines the logic behind and evidence on consolidation in the international financial services industry. It analyses the impact of Washington Consensus policies upon the expansion of global banks in developing and transition economies. It contrasts the evolution of the international banking structure during the era of modern globalisation with that in China, which has followed a fundamentally different path. Although Chinese banks have large profits and market capitalisation, their international competitiveness is still limited. Global banks have only a small role in the Chinese economy and Chinese banks have a small role in the international economy. The contrast between the two systems is of central importance for the way in which competition and regulation develops in the global financial sector.     

Financial constraints and foreign direct investment: firm-level evidence

Low productivity is an important barrier to the cross-border expansion of firms. But firms may also need external finance to shoulder the costs of entering foreign markets. We develop a model of multinational firms facing real and financial barriers to foreign direct investment (FDI), and we analyze their impact on the FDI decision. Theoretically, we show that financial constraints can affect highly productive firms more than firms with low productivity because the former are more likely to expand abroad. We provide empirical evidence based on a detailed dataset of German domestic and multinational firms which contains information on parent-level financial constraints as well as on the location the foreign affiliates. We find that financial factors constrain firms’ foreign investment decisions, an effect felt in particular by firms most likely to consider investing abroad. The locational information in our dataset allows exploiting cross-country differences in contract enforcement. Consistent with theory, we find that poor contract enforcement in the host country has a negative impact on FDI decisions.     

Vertical linkages and multinational enterprises in developing countries

Many studies have concluded that multinational firms do not create significant technical and other vertical linkages in developing host countries. This case study of three multinational firms in the export-oriented electronics industry in Singapore shows that under certain conditions multinational firms can lead in creating local vertical linkages. It suggests that restrictive government policies to increase local purchases may not be necessary, effective or desirable in promoting local linkages by export-oriented multinational firms that respond primarily to international market conditions. The Singapore experience poinst to the importance of a healthy investment climate and rapid economic growth in encouraging multinational firms to forge local linkages.     

Equity volatility connectedness across China’s real estate firms and financial institutions

The study investigates the dynamic equity volatility connectedness across the major real estate firms, banks, and other financial institutions in China. Based on the relative level of equity volatility connectedness, the study also examines the systemic importance of real estate firms and banks. The study shows that despite widespread worries about potential real estate bubbles in China, total directional connectedness from real estate firms to banks has decreased over the sample period. In contrast, total directional connectedness from banks to the real estate firms and to the financial institutions has become stronger over the sample period, which implies stronger risk originating from the banking sector. The study also shows that size plays an important role in determining the systemic importance of a real estate firm to the banking sector. The largest real estate firm displays the highest average systemic importance ranking. However, size does not appear to be the determinant factor of the systemic importance of a bank to the financial system. The largest bank shows the lowest average systemic importance ranking and 70% probability of being the least or second least systemically important bank in the long run.     

研发密集度与跨国公司组织模式选择——基于金融市场摩擦的分析

本文探讨了在东道国金融市场不完善的条件下,行业研发密集度与跨国公司组织模式之间的关系。本文的基本逻辑是,因为研发密集度高的行业对东道国金融市场的依赖程度更高,而跨国公司可以通过选择组织模式和投资区位以消除金融市场不完全的影响,因此,不同的行业跨国公司的组织模式和区位选择会随行业研发密集度的不同而不同。本文分析结果表明:首先,在研发密集度较高的行业,更多的企业会选择在发达地区进行FDI,而在落后地区进行外包;其次,随着落后地区金融市场效率的提高,所有行业在发达和落后地区的外包都会变得更加普遍;最后,本文还进一步分析了行业生产率分布对企业组织模式的影响。本文的结论为现有经验研究结果提供了理论支持。     

PARTIAL DOLLARIZATION,EXCHANGE RATES,AND FIRM INVESTMENT IN PARAGUAY

Between 1989 and 1993 the government of Paraguay removed most restriction on financial transactions in domestic and foreign currency. The resulting financial deepening also involved partial dollarization. This investigation sought to determine whether partial dollarization led to negative balance sheet effects (in the form of reduced access to investment credit due to depreciation‐induced reduction in firms’ net worth as a result of currency mismatches on their balance sheets) and, therefore, to investment contractions, at the firm level, in the face of real currency depreciations. Support was found for that thesis. However, there was also evidence that banks expanded credit more rapidly in the face of currency depreciations. These apparent contradictory movements in credit and investment were shown to be a result of the absence of any clear causal link (in a Granger sense) between bank credit to the private sector and private investment in Paraguay.     

Is Japan's financial system efficient?

This paper puts forward some hypotheses to try and explain therecent fragility of the Japanese banking sector in a corporate-governanceperspective. One hypothesis is that the banks themselves werenot effectively monitored and disciplined. A second hypothesisis that the banks were able to show a good performance not becausethey monitored and disciplined their client firms, but becausethe firms were themselves disciplined by international competition.When those client firms reduced their reliance on bank creditin the 1980s, the banks were forced to extend their funds tonon-traded-goods industries, such as real estate and finance,without having prepared themselves for this. The consequencewas a serious non-performing-loan problem in the 1990s.     

跨国银行监管理论的新进展

金融市场的统一趋势及其监管范围的不断扩展,引发了银行监管的国际协调问题。跨国银行主要以分行或子行的形式开展国际业务,组织结构的差异同时带来了银行监管方面的差异。本文探讨了跨国银行监管与组织结构的关系,并对国际上关于跨国银行监管理论的最新研究成果进行了综述。随着我国银行业的全面对外开放,跨国银行监管会越来越凸显其重要的现实意义。     

A hallmark of India’s new economic policy:: deregulation and liberalization of the financial sector

A fundamental job of the financial sector of any economy is to allocate capital efficiently. To achieve this, capital is supposed to be invested in the sectors that are expected to have high returns and be withdrawn from sectors with poor prospects. The purpose of this paper is to ascertain the validity of this proposition in the context of financial liberalization in India. We first examine whether the total funds (debt and equity) available for investment started flowing to the “more efficient” (defined later), Indian firms due to financial liberalization. We examine changes in the allocation of credit across industrial sectors and changes in the allocation of capital among firms within the same sector or industry. Our empirical analysis shows that during the early years of financial liberalization the share of investment going to the more efficient firms did not rise, resulting in no perceptible rise in the overall efficiency of investment allocation for the economy. Our analysis of the sources and uses of funds shows that in the period immediately following the announcement of liberalization in 1991, there was a tendency in the Indian corporate sector towards a myopic use of funds. The surge in the availability of funds in the stock market, coming mainly from small and medium savers, failed to translate itself into any noticeable rise in gross fixed assets (GFAs). Thus, the lack of an improvement in the index of efficiency of investment allocation can be partly ascribed to bad investments to begin with. The message that emerges is that financial reforms in an inadequate regulatory framework do not necessarily have positive effects.     

Bubble into reallocation: How bubbles improve capital allocation in China

This paper develops a theoretical framework to shed lights on the relations between the segmented financial market and the housing bubble in China. In our framework, capital misallocation across firms plays a central role. The segmented financial market causes discrimination against private enterprises and favoritism to state-owned firms. This biased financial system not only gives rise to capital misallocation across firms but also significantly pushes down the equilibrium interest rate in the formal financial market. The overly low interest rate in the formal financial market causes a rational bubble in a dynamically efficient economy. More importantly, the bubble improves capital allocation across firms by crowding out inefficient investment in the state-owned sector. Despite the role of improving capital allocation, bubbles may still reduce welfare by crowding out aggregate capital.     

Do NBFCs propagate real shocks?

Notwithstanding a smaller share of total loans vis-à-vis commercial banks, we investigate a possible role of Non-banking financial companies (NBFCs) in propagating a real shock to the rest of the economy. Our two-sector model captures emerging economy characteristics such as NBFC borrowings from commercial banks, heterogeneities in financial constraints, and labour market friction faced by firms. Our theoretical and simulation results, using Indian parameters, indicate that an idiosyncratic shock (i.e., higher realization of the failed firms) and a sectoral productivity shock (in the sector financed by NBFCs) increase the interest rate charged by the banks, and the unemployment rate while reducing the real wages and per capita capital formation. However, the reverse happens given a structural shock, assumed as an increase in the average number of failed firms. Early detection of such shocks and quick policy intervention are required to provide a cushion for capital formation and job creation.     

Interbank market frictions, international banks and growth

In developing countries and countries in transition, a lack of finance is regarded as a major reason for the underperformance of the SME sector. The financial sector does not channel funds efficiently from savers to the most efficient investment. In a general equilibrium endogenous growth model, we explain the underperformance of the SME sector by interbank market frictions. High information costs in the interbank market lead to a high loan/deposit spread and hence to a low growth equilibrium. The solution to this problem is twofold. First, central bank policy could reduce interbank information problems by providing effective bank supervision. Second, if the central bank is expected not to have sufficient monitoring capabilities, reputation and reserves, opening up the interbank market to international banks can substitute for insufficient central bank activities.The sources of this advantage in efficiency are stronger incentives for workers and managers (direct connection between effort and return), easier monitoring and greater flexibility (McIntyre 2001).     

Foreign Ownership,Exporting and Gender Wage Gaps: Evidence from Japanese Linked Employer-Employee Data

We explore potential relationships between international economic activities and gender wage gaps (GWGs) using linked employer-employee data for Japan. We find evidence that exporting and multinational activities are associated with reduced GWGs. Domestic-owned firms that neither export nor invest abroad (i.e., domestic-only firms) report the largest GWG, followed by Japanese-owned multinational enterprises (JMNE), then by locally-owned exporters that do not invest abroad and finally by foreign-owned multinational enterprises (FMNE). We separate FMNE by mode of entry and confirm that FMNE established by greenfield investment deviate more than FMNE established by merger and acquisition from domestic-only firms in terms of wages. Greenfield-born FMNE are associated with the smallest GWG and largest gender-neutral wage premium among the firm types. The estimated GWG among Greenfield-born FMNE is almost 12 percentage-points lower than the 26.8 percent prevailing at domestic-only firms.     

Credit policy,real exchange rate volatility and moral hazard

We extend the well-developed theoretical literature on unconventional credit policy from a closed economy to a small open economy. Consistent with the literature, we find that credit policy has positive effects on output and consumption by raising investment demand. In terms of expanding output, it is more effective to extend government credit to banks than to the goods-producing sector because for each unit of credit supplied to banks, banks - through leverage - can supply greater than one unit of intermediation to firms. We find the welfare implications are ambiguous and depend on the type of policy chosen. A policy of providing funds to goods-producing firms tends to be welfare-improving because it dampens the responses of all variables after a negative shock, including the real exchange rate. However, providing government assistance to the banking sector may be a costly policy because it encourages greater risk-taking on part of banks, leading to higher bank leverage. All else equal, this increases the volatility of the economy, raising the variances of consumption and of the real exchange rate, which is welfare-deteriorating. We interpret this as indicative of the problem of moral hazard associated with a policy of providing support to failing banks.     

Investment by Korean conglomerates before and after the crisis

This paper analyzes the investment behavior of the Korean corporate sector before and after the 1997 financial crisis. Using firm-level data, we find that after controlling for investment profitability and cash flows, Korean conglomerates (‘chaebol’)-affiliated firms, particularly ones with low-managerial ownership, made significantly higher investments than non-chaebol firms before the crisis. In contrast, this difference in investment volume between chaebol and non-chaebol firms is no longer existent in the period following the crisis. We find the sharp reduction in investment by chaebols in the post-crisis period can be attributed mainly to the need to moderate their debt burden. It is not clear, however, whether these changes indicate an improvement in investment efficiency.     

Challenges and opportunities in El Salvador's financial sector

The formal financial sector has expanded rapidly in postwar El Salvador, encouraged by premature financial liberalization and a remittance windfall, exceeding commercial banks' capacities to lend prudently. The counterpart of this spurious financial deepening is a shallow financial market for smaller firms, which reflects both difficult real conditions for small urban and agricultural enterprises, and the unfortunate effects of the credit-channeling model characterizing development banks and most nongovernment organization projects. This model discourages the growth of small-scale institutions that can fund themselves from local resources, and limits the ability of small producers to accumulate financial savings.     

Regional Economic Integration and the Location of Multinational Firms

A theoretical model of international location is applied to a process of regional economic integration in which a set of countries mutually removes barriers to trade and investment, thus overcoming the traditional ‘hub and spoke’ setup of regional agreements. The theoretical results are matched with actual trade and foreign investment data from a sample of some 4,200 multinational firms who have invested in Central and Eastern Europe over the 1990–1999 period. Controlling for the effects of the reduction in trade barriers through a proper specification of a gravity model, it is found that the conventional outcome of an agglomeration of economic activities in the centre of the integrating area does not necessarily hold. Multilateral regional integration agreements can act as an important dispersion force significantly driving the location of multinational firms. A panel probit econometric exercise confirms the findings. JEL no. F12, F15, F21     

The German bank–growth nexus revisited: savings banks and economic growth in Prussia†

This article provides evidence that smaller, regional public financial intermediaries contributed to Germany's industrial development, using a new dataset of the foundation year and location of Prussian savings banks. This extends the bank–growth nexus beyond its traditional focus on large universal banks. Since savings banks were public financial intermediaries, our results further suggest that state intervention can be successful in the financial sector, particularly at the early stages of industrial development when capital requirements are manageable, and access to international capital markets is limited.