Growth, Inequality, and Integration: A Political Economy Analysis

The issue of political integration between two countries (more generally two political constituencies) for economic reasons is studied within the context of a simple endogenous growth model with a productive public good financed by taxation. We consider two countries that initially differ in terms of average endowment, size, and inequality. Because taxation affects the distribution of income both within and between countries, we are able to show how integration impacts it over the entire time horizon. The decision to integrate or not is made by the two national median voters. We establish the net gain for any individual in any country derived from integration and offer a simple decomposition of this gain. It is then proven that even though integration generates aggregate gains for both countries through an endogenous growth mechanism related to size, it may be in the interest of either median voter not to vote for integration given the transformation in the inequality schedule it implies. Surprisingly, even the poorer median voter may vote against integration. Turning to the process of union building, we prove that, once it is decided, integration is irreversible. Countries may initially decide against integration yet be willing to reverse this decision in a subsequent period.     

Marx,Finance and Political Economy

ABSTRACT

Shortly after the publication of Volume I of Capital, the financial requirements of capitalist enterprise forced the financial innovation of bond and stock finance for joint stock companies. Marx intended to re-write Capital in order to incorporate this change. He did not achieve this. The economic analysis of capitalism with long-term finance was undertaken by Hilferding in his Finance Capital. Thereafter, a strand of economic analysis of production and distribution emerged in the work of the Austro-Marxists, Veblen, Keynes, Kalecki, Steindl and Sweezy, and the Italian Kaleckians, Joseph Halevi and Riccardo Bellofiore, which incorporated the change made to the structure and dynamics of capitalism by long-term finance. However, this shift in capitalist financing has largely been ignored in economic theory, while much of the heterodox analysis that seeks to challenge the role of finance in contemporary capitalism has not integrated finance consistently. The change from the classic capitalism to finance capital raises important questions about the meaning and relevance of Marx’s work today.     

Microfoundations,Minsky and Classical Political Economy

The microfoundations discourse originated as a critique of modelling abstracted from theory, in the sense of an explanation of the economic decisions that are supposed to give rise to particular economic outcomes. However, reduction of theory to individual choices and optimisation, integrated by prices and markets, overlooks the key role played by the circular flow of income in integrating individual choices, noted by Schumpeter and Marx, and the key distinction between households and firms that underlies Keynesian macroeconomics and the theories of Minsky, because the expenditure decisions of firms determine aggregate incomes.     

长期经济增长的需求因素制约——政治经济学视角的增长理论与实践分析

本文围绕长期经济增长的需求制约,引入政治经济学的分析视角,对现代增长理论的缺失问题和增长阶段转变的国际经验进行分析,进而探讨中国经济增长的长期趋势和政策选择。现代增长理论忽略需求因素的制约,对经济现实缺乏解释力和应用性,面临实践过程日益突出的挑战。日本、韩国和台湾地区经济发展阶段变化后长期增速大幅回落,主要是受到内需增长尤其是投资增速下行的影响。中国改革开放以来,经济高速增长主要是由需求扩张拉动的,经济进入新常态之后的长期增长趋势主要取决于内需增速的变化,影响需求长期增速的因素既有供给结构问题也有需求结构问题,长期增长政策应把供给侧结构性改革与需求侧结构性改革结合起来。     

城镇化、经济增长与保险业发展简

基于VAR模型讨论中国城镇化、经济增长与保险业发展三者的关系,结果显示,城镇化水平和经济增长对保险业发展具有长期的正向效应。从长期看,经济增长、城镇化率对保险业发展的影响有一个相对滞后效应。     

Political Economy*

The term 'political economy' has a long and curious history, from its 17th-century meaning of statecraft to the classical economists' use of it for what later came to be called economics and its recent appropriation by neo-Marxists for social theory which, in contrast to 'orthodox' economics, goes into history, politics and sociology, focuses on power relationships and combines positive analysis with advocacy. This article points out that there are now at least two schools of political economy in this tatter sense, the neo-Marxist and the 'Chicago' school. The concluding section distinguishes sensible and not so sensible uses of the term.     

所有制、涓滴效应与共享发展:一个政治经济学分析

传统涓滴理论作为西方主流发展经济学的重要组成部分,源自西方社会报酬结构演进中对利益冲突的行为选择与思潮迭代。这一理论逻辑的根本缺陷在于其遮蔽了社会制度的内在蕴涵和社会结构的本质特征。将经济增长、收入分配和贫困三者关系置于社会生产关系的视域下考察:生产关系性质决定分配关系性质继而决定涓滴发展的实质,所有制是涓滴效应实现的核心机制。涓滴效应在不同经济体中阻滞或畅通实质上受所有制关系规定的“发展为了谁”的增长逻辑支配。“发展为了资本”和“发展为了人民”是两种截然不同的发展道路:前者从私有制出发,沿着自下而上的负向涓滴路径,必然导向两极分化;后者从公有制出发,沿着自上而下的正向涓滴路径,必将导向共同富裕。     

Marxism,Crypto-Marxism and the Political Economy of Capitalism

ABSTRACT

This article conducts groundwork for a discussion of Marx’s influence through examining the boundaries of the specifically Marxian school of economics. This Marxian school extends well beyond the bounds of the self-identified Marxian school. Marx’s influence, Marxian themes and effectively Marxian theory can be found in several important heterodox traditions of economics, though this is often unacknowledged. A consideration of the proper boundaries of the Marxian school of economics is essential for a full understanding of Marx’s legacy and could contribute to the emergence of a more unified heterodoxy in economics.     

Mainstream Methodology, Financial Markets and Global Political Economy

The experience of financial markets in the global economy isopen to a variety of interpretations, based on different framings,with important consequences for economic policy. Knowledge aboutfinancial markets, and the methodology employed to build it,can be understood in terms of framing. The underlying argumentof the paper is in favour of considering the framing of financialmarkets within an open-system approach, allowing input fromother disciplines, as well as taking account of the real, oftenperformative, implications of (closed-system) mainstream framingby policy-makers. The methodological underpinnings of, and interdependenciesbetween, different framings among theorists, policy-makers,market players and users is explored.     

唯物史观、动态优化与经济增长——兼评马克思主义政治经济学的数学化

本文以推动马克思主义政治经济学的创新发展为目标,以马克思主义最优经济增长理论为线索,在系统评述该理论的建模特点与主要结论的基础上,通过与西方经济学数学模型的对比辨析,对马克思主义政治经济学数学化的基本原则与建模思路进行了探讨。研究指出:马克思主义政治经济学并不排斥数学方法,但是对其进行数学化建模的过程必须要以坚持历史唯物主义的研究方法作为基本原则,即抓住生产力与生产关系这对矛盾及其运动来对经济社会的运行规律进行分析。具体而言,在坚持劳动价值论的基础上,构建一种包含工人与资本家两种行为主体,区分生产资料与消费资料两大部类,并且纳入剥削关系与迂回生产特点的动态模型可能是一种可行的建模思路。     

数字经济、普惠金融与包容性增长

人类正在经历的以互联网为基础的第三次技术革命,对效率和公平的影响巨大且深远。中国尤其得益于互联网革命,使得中国实现了数字经济和数字金融的快速发展。本文将中国数字普惠金融指数和中国家庭追踪调查(CFPS)数据相结合,评估互联网革命所推动的数字金融的发展对包容性增长的影响。首先,基于分样本实证分析,发现中国的数字金融不但在落后地区的发展速度更快,而且显著提升了家庭收入,尤其是对农村低收入群体而言。可见,数字金融促进了中国的包容性增长。其次,对于数字金融至包容性增长的传导机制,本文发现,数字金融的发展帮助改善了农村居民的创业行为,并带来了创业机会的均等化。最后,通过对物质资本、人力资本及社会资本的异质性分析,发现数字金融特别有助于促进低物质资本或低社会资本家庭的创业行为,从而促进了中国的包容性增长。     

温度驱动、经济增长与居民生活能源消费

在1阶段Becker-Grossman模型的基础上,引入日平均降雨量、人均总产出和地域虚拟变量,分析水旱灾害、温度、经济增长和地域差别因素对我国居民能源消费的影响。采用2004年~2011年30个省域数据建立面板模型,研究发现:(1)各省居民基础生活能源消费存在的明显的个体差异,欠发达地区和高海拔地区的生活能源消费基数较高;(2)我国居民能源消费形式已不同于上世纪90年代之前的灾害驱动型,而达到了与发达国家相似的温度驱动型时期,能源消费量与温度关系曲线呈U型,且温度调节的成本差异导致曲线左右不对称;(3)经济增长效应大于温度驱动效应,是近年来我国居民生活能源增加的主要原因,收入能源消费弹性系数仅为0.39,未来能源消费还会进一步增加。最后本文对模型进行了6种形式的扩展,发现模型具有良好的稳健性。     

财富效应、消费函数与经济增长

通过持久收入理论和生命周期理论，可从不同侧面分析股市财富效应的作用。LC-PIH模型则对股市的财富效应进行了全面的诠释，即持续繁荣的股市所形成的财富效应，可以增加投资者财富和公众对未来经济发展的景气预期，改变短期MPC，刺激消费增长，进而促进经济增长，但是财富效应的影响程度要受股市规模，股市变动趋势，股价波动的不确定性等因素的制约。     

论政治经济学、西方经济学的位置和功能

准确定位政治经济学、西方经济学的位置和功能,需要把握好以下问题:要正确看待西方经济学,分清西方经济学和当年马克思批判的资产阶级庸俗经济学的关系,鼓励对西方经济学进行创新性研究,有分析地加以利用;正确看待马克思主义在教学和研究中的指导作用,理解好马克思主义的基本内涵,采取与时俱进的态度来创新和发展政治经济学的资本主义部分,针对社会主义国家建设过程中出现的社会各阶层之间利益关系的矛盾,来创建社会主义政治经济学;深刻认识政治经济学和西方经济学的互补性。     

区域一体化、经济增长与政治晋升

我国市场分割问题比较突出，但区域经济一体化的出现以及增多已成为一个重要现象。为什么有些省区选择市场分割，而有些却致力于区域一体化？地方政府在处理区际关系上的迥异行为是否具有内在一致性的解释？我们从中央政府按照经济绩效晋升地方政府官员的假设出发，构造一个地方官员晋升博弈模型，证明了，为了政治晋升最大化，地方官员选择地方市场分割还是区域一体化因条件而异。实证分析支持模型的预测。