Macroeconomies as constructively rational games

Real-world decision-makers are forced to be locally constructive; that is, their decisions are necessarily constrained by their interaction networks, information, beliefs, and physical states. This study transforms an otherwise standard dynamic macroeconomic model into an open-ended dynamic game by requiring consumers and firms with intertemporal utility and profit objectives to be locally constructive. Tested locally constructive decision processes for the consumers and firms range from simple reactive reinforcement learning to adaptive dynamic programming (ADP). Computational experiments are used to explore macroeconomic performance under alternative decision-process combinations relative to a social planner benchmark solution. A key finding is that simpler decision processes can outperform more sophisticated decision processes such as ADP. However, memory length permitting some degree of adaptive foresight is critical for good performance.     

Evidence of irreversibility in the UK property market

The real options approach to valuation of property investment suggests that various sources of uncertainty about future returns on investment have important effects on irreversible property investment decisions. Our aim in this study has been to examine how investment decisions at three main stages of the property development/investment processes respond to different sources of uncertainty. Based on the methodology developed by Episcopos (1995), the neo-classical proposition of Hartman-Abel that predicts a positive investment-uncertainty relationship is tested against that proposed by the real option theory. It is interesting to note that our empirical findings are generally consistent with the prediction of the real option theory that uncertainty increases the option value to wait for the arrival of new information thus decreasing the current investment activities. In periods of high volatility, we would expect investors in the property market to be more prudent and scale down their investment exposure to market volatility compared with periods of a relatively stable market environment.     

Planning horizon results for the dynamic warehouse location problem

In the last decade, a number of models for the dynamic facility location problem have been proposed. The various models contain differing assumptions regarding the revenues and costs realized in the opening, operation, and closure of a facility as well as considering which of the facility sites are candidates for acquisition or disposal at the beginning of a time period. Since the problem becomes extremely large for practical applications, much of the research has been directed toward developing efficient solution techniques. Most of the models and solutions assume that the facilities will be disposed of at the end of the time horizon since distant future conditions usually can't be forecasted with any reasonable degree of accuracy. The problem with this approach is that the “optimal” solution is optimal for only one hypothesized post horizon facility configuration and may become nonoptimal under a different configuration. Post-optimality analysis is needed to assure management that the “optimal” decision to open or close a facility at a given point in time won't prove to be “nonoptimal” when the planning horizon is extended or when design parameters in subsequent time periods change. If management has some guarantee that the decision to open or close a facility in a given time period won't change, it can safely direct attention to the accuracy of the design parameters within that time period.This paper proposes a mixed integer linear programming model to determine which of a finite set of warehouse sites will be operating in each time period of a finite planning horizon. The model is general in the sense that it can reflect a number of acquisition alternatives—purchase, lease or rent. The principal assumptions of the model are: a) Warehouses are assumed to have infinite capacity in meeting customer demand, b) In each time period, any non-operating warehouse is a candidate for becoming operational, and likewise any operating warehouse is a candidate for disposal, c) During a given time period, the fixed costs of becoming operational at a site are greater than the disposal value at that site to reflect the nonrecoverable costs involved in operating a warehouse. These costs are separate from the acquisition and liquidation values of the site. d) During a time period the operation of a warehouse incurs overhead and maintenance costs as well as a depreciation in the disposal value.To solve the model, it is first simplified and a partial optimal solution is obtained by the iterative examination by both lower and upper bounds on the savings realized if a site is opened in a given time period. An attempt is made to fix each warehouse open or closed in each time period. The bounds are based on the delta and omega tests proposed by Efroymson and Ray (1966) and Khumawala (1972) with adjustment for changes in the value of the warehouse between the beginning and end of a time period. A complete optimal solution is obtained by solving the reduced model with Benders' decomposition procedure. The optimal solution is then tested to determine which time periods contain “tentative” decisions that may be affected by post horizon data by analyzing the relationship between the lower (or upper) bounds used in the model simplification time period. If the warehouse decisions made in a time period satisfy these relationships and are thus unaffected by data changes in subsequent time periods, then the decisions made in earlier time periods will also be unaffected by future changes.     

Tax Competition and Revelation of Preferences for Public Expenditure

This paper considers a federal country composed of local jurisdictions that differ in their inhabitants' tastes for public goods, and which finance local public expenditure through a source-based tax on capital income. The taste for public goods is the private information of local governments. The central government seeks an optimal policy, in which grants to local governments are conditioned on local tax rates. The uninformed central government seeks both to allocate capital efficiently among jurisdictions, and to induce jurisdictions to provide an efficient mix of private and public consumption. It is shown that there persist at this constrained optimum both some misallocation of capital and some violation of the Samuelson rule for optimal public good provision in every jurisdiction.     

Delivery lags and buffer stocks in the theory of investment by the firm

This paper contains a dynamic model of a firm holding a stock of unfilled orders for output while facing a fixed delivery lag attached to acquiring new capital goods. The model leads to a two-stage optimal control problem where the initial time interval corresponds to the Marshallian short-run and the second interval is the period during which deliveries of capital goods may arrive. Optimality criteria are provided for both time intervals and the behavior of the firm is characterized along both adjustment paths. The short-run decisions of the firm are shown to be tied to long-run decisions planned by the firm.     

STRATEGIES OF EXPANSION AND ORGANIZATIONAL DEVELOPMENTS IN EUROPEAN AND AMERICAN FIRMS 1

Summary The pace of change of the last ten years has challenged the traditional management processes to the point that the key organizational question is no longer to fit new strategies into available organizational patterns but instead to fit the organizational structure to the kind of problems to be faced. However, the intricacy of strategic and structural difficulties is often such that the appraisal of organizational inadequacies may prove difficult: symptoms may be wrongly considered as problems which may in turn be over-or understated so that corrective measures may well be inappropriate. This is why the saying‘When in trouble, reoganize!’is of little practicability. The lack of organizational planning in framing responses to structural problems will more and more make adjustments necessary. In our attempts to define the nature of organizational changes which are likely to occur within business firms in the future, we shall isolate the stragetic decisions related to corporate expansion on a transnational, trans-continental and eventually on an intercontinental scale. We shall start by analysing present organizational patterns — as they reflect decisions made in the past regarding current strategies — and we shall try to outline some possible structural developments as they may be required by the implementation of future strategies.     

An optimal multiple stopping approach to infrastructure investment decisions

The energy and material processing industries are traditionally characterized by very large-scale physical capital that is custom-built with long lead times and long lifetimes. However, recent technological advancement in low-cost automation has made possible the parallel operation of large numbers of small-scale and modular production units. Amenable to mass-production, these units can be more rapidly deployed but they are also likely to have a much quicker turnover. Such a paradigm shift motivates the analysis of the combined effect of lead time and lifetime on infrastructure investment decisions. In order to value the underlying real option, we introduce an optimal multiple stopping approach that accounts for operational flexibility, delay induced by lead time, and multiple (finite/infinite) future investment opportunities. We provide an analytical characterization of the firm׳s value function and optimal stopping rule. This leads us to develop an iterative numerical scheme, and examine how the investment decisions depend on lead time and lifetime, as well as other parameters. Furthermore, our model can be used to analyze the critical investment cost that makes small-scale (short lead time, short lifetime) alternatives competitive with traditional large-scale infrastructure.     

The Prophecy of Place: A Labor Market Study of Young Women and Education

This study demonstrates that place—defined in this article as labor market area (LMA)— provides a useful context for examining how youth manage gendered situations. Places vary by conditions in which gender is more, less or differently salient, and a particular mix of factors accommodates different individual outcomes. This study utilizes multi–level modeling to examine influence of LMA characteristics on over–time educational measures for young women (Center for Human Resource Research 1994). Hierarchical models determine place–level effects on both average outcomes (within and between LMAs) and attainment processes. A major finding of this study is that aggregate place effects channel personal decisions and outcomes of young women. Young women's educational aspirations are dependent on gender– specific variables such as the number of women in college or the number of young women married in a local area. Attainment depends on the percentage of women in higher education and a local labor market's average age at first marriage. Further, what are assumed to be positive environmental effects (e.g., manufacturing dominance) are based on structural advantages for men and actually depress outcomes for women. Notably, the influence of place is independent of strong individual–level determinants, including social class.     

The peer-firm effect on firm’s investment decisions

This study investigates the effect of peer firms on firm investment strategies. We test the peer group effect hypothesis along differing levels of financially constrained firms as well as differing degrees of industry competition. Using idiosyncratic equity returns as the instrument variable, we use 2-stage least squares regression to identify the influence of peer firms’ investment decisions on a firm’s own investment policies. Our analyses empirically confirm that there is a peer group effect in making firm investment decisions. More financially constrained firms show greater dependency on peers’ investment decisions. Tests of peer sensitivity to the increase in industrial competition, however, displayed a U-shaped quadratic curve, which shows that firms have the lowest peer group effect in medium-competition markets. We claim that imitative behavior in investment is presumably weak in the mid-competition market because firms are yet to be distinguished in this market.     

Community preferences and social choice

This paper gives necessary and sufficient conditions for the aggregation of preferences, extending an earlier treatment of aggregation by Stolper, Gorman, Samuelson and Chipman. Such aggregation procedures are intended to deal with the problem of aggregating demand functions in econometrics, where the aggregate is required to be independent to the income distribution. Thus, it is usually assumed in this form of aggregation that all consumers face the same prices, but that the distribution of income is unrestricted.In order to establish the characterisation result, we present a new approach to preference aggregation which involves summing certain subsets of the graphs of the preferences, viewed as subsets of a Euclidean space. This procedure has a clear geometrical interpretation, and a number of useful applications. In particular, it enables us to analyse the possibility of aggregation when prices are not constrained to be the same for all consumers, a case of possible empirical significance. We also show that the Stolper-Gorman-Samuelson-Chipman construction of community indifference curves coincides with a special case of this procedure.Finally, this approach allows us to develop the relationship between these forms of aggregation and the preference aggregation problem as it occurs in social choice theory.     

Consistent estimation when the left-hand variable is exogenous over part of the sample period

This paper proposes a consistent estimation method for regression equations with a left-hand variable that is endogenous for some observations, and exogenous for others. This method is applied to the estimation of a demand-for-money function for Switzerland over a time interval which includes periods of monetary control; that is periods when the quantity of money can best be viewed as exogenous.     

Consumer Stockpiling and Price Competition in Differentiated Markets

In many storable-goods markets, firms are often aware that consumers may strategically adjust purchase timing in response to expected price dynamics. For example, in periods when prices are low, consumers stockpile for future consumption. This paper investigates the dynamic impact of consumer stockpiling on competing firms' strategic pricing decisions in differentiated markets. The necessity of equilibrium consumer storage for storable products is re-examined. It is shown that preference heterogeneity generates differential consumer stockpiling propensity, thereby intensifying future price competition. As a result, consumer storage may not necessarily arise as an equilibrium outcome. Economic forces are also investigated that may mitigate the competition-intensifying effect of consumer inventories and that, hence, may lead to equilibrium consumer storage.     

RENEWABLE RESOURCE AND CAPITAL ACCUMULATION UNDER UNCERTAINTY

An economy endowed with a renewable natural resource and physical capital is considered in order to examine the characteristics of possible transformation from natural to man-made capital, as a potential means of surviving over long periods of time if the natural resource may be depleted or fall short of certain sustainable levels. Natural resource together with physical capital is utilized to produce a commodity that is either to be sold in a market to earn sales revenue or invested to accumulate physical capital. The reserve size of resource and the production technology are both subject to uncertainties that are modeled by Wiener processes. The Wiener process is used to express the intrinsic nature of uncertainty for a long planning horizon such as on natural resources, in which distant futures are more difficult to foresee than the near future. It is shown that there exists a steady-state equilibrium in this economy under certainty and that, under some plausible conditions, the expected rate of change in resource harvest over time under uncertainty is less than the rate under certainty, while that of product sales is not affected by uncertainty.     

管理者过度自信与企业投资现金敏感度——基于英国上市公司的实证研究

本文以英国上市公司为样本,发现融资约束公司普遍表现出管理者过度自信与投资现金流敏感性之间显著的正相关关系。与此相反,这种积极的关系不能在融资无约束公司中找到。这个结果和预期相一致,即在融资约束公司中过度自信的管理者的投资决策应该比非过度自信的管理者投资决策对现金流更加敏感。因为,现金流的增加能够促使过度自信的管理者加大投资并达到他们想要的水平。     

Limits to global sourcing?: Strategic consequences of dependency on international suppliers: Cluster theory,resource-based view and case studies

This paper argues for the inclusion of an analysis of industry clusters when making decisions about global or local sourcing. Suppliers are viewed as valuable resources that can contribute to a firm's competitive advantage. Two contrasting case studies illustrate that, contrary to common expectations, a high global sourcing quota does not necessarily improve a firm's competitiveness. Rather, there may be limits to global sourcing, if a firm is unable to become a preferred customer of its strategic suppliers. Achieving preferred customer status is easier for firms located in the same regional or national cluster than it is for foreign firms attempting to access a remote supplier. This paper contributes a new and more differentiated approach to global sourcing decisions by integrating the cluster concept. Furthermore, our findings enrich the discourse of strategic management by supporting the view that resources which enable a firm to achieve sustainable competitive advantages can be located beyond its legal boundaries.     

ENVIRONMENT, ORGANIZATION AND EFFECTIVENESS: A BIOGRAPHICAL APPROACH[1]

Answers to the question of what makes an organization effective have proved elusive despite more than 20 years of intensive theorizing and research. Yet the search for answers, which gained momentum with Lawrence and Lorsch's (1969) Organization and Environment, clearly has had salutary effects on students of organizations and their work. This paper offers an approach to analysing organizations explicitly based on two of those benefits. The first is the shift toward a more dynamic orientation for explaining organizational configurations and outcomes. The second is the identification of strategic decisionmaking as the key link between organizational environment, structures, and effectiveness. By merging these two, we construct a biographical approach to the study of organizations. This approach sees organizations as evolving through time in response to, or in anticipation of, both external and internal forces. We view effectiveness as the outcome of a variety of decisions taken by one or more groups of organizational actors - elites or coalitions - in the context of bounded rationalities and environmental and structural constraints. So decision processes underpin observed configurations of environmental and structural features and link these configurations to effectiveness. An organization's biography - the pattern of its evolution - can be conceptualized as a succession of decisions and their consequences, with some decisions having a major long-term influence on the direction taken by the organization and its effectiveness, while others have but an incremental influence. This article is an initial effort to make concrete our ideas. The opening section discusses organizational decision-making and organizational effectiveness. This is the core of our approach: a basis for categorizing organizational decisions and in particular for singling out those which can be regarded as strategic. It is our contention that significant decisions vary across organizations and that it will embrace rather than ignore history and context. And ultimately, it will enhance our understanding of organizational effectiveness.     

Exploring the reshoring and insourcing decision making process: toward an agenda for future research

The topics of reshoring and insourcing have recently become more widely discussed among operations management and international business scholars and managers, as some firms are revoking their offshoring and outsourcing decisions. This research focuses on and clarifies the decision making processes related to the two distinct, yet closely related phenomena of reshoring and insourcing. It presents a conceptual framework of all theoretically possible reshoring and insourcing decisions, illustrated in its applicability by a review of the United States and German business press. Then four future research avenues are developed as part of an overall decision making framework together with an overview of specific research questions for this emergent field. Further research avenues include the need to differentiate between reshoring/insourcing as strategic direction or reaction to failure, studying organizational readiness in addition to decision drivers, improve coverage of the implementation stage and explore further contingency factors such as technological advancement as well as to focus on decision makers as the unit of analysis.     

Internationalisation of British fundraising charities: a two-phase empirical study

• A two-phase mixed methods (qualitative and quantitative) study was undertaken to identify and then to confirm the main dimensions and the principal antecedents of the internationalisation behaviour of a sample of British charities known to engage in foreign operations. Specifically the investigation examined the factors that explained charities' decisions to enter foreign countries, the motivations and practical methods involved and the time periods elapsing between first and subsequent entry. Outcomes were compared against theories of internationalisation developed by previous studies completed in the commercial domain. The approaches to internationalisation adopted by 15 organisations were established, and the generalisability of these approaches tested via a mail survey that elicited 238 responses. Least squares, Cox time and logistic regression analyses were completed to determine the factors that significantly influenced the extents and timings of the sample members' international activities. It emerged that some but not all of the considerations that have been found to affect the internationalisation of commercial firms also impacted on the patterns of internationalisation pursued by many of the sample organisations, especially managerial inclinations and participation in networks. However, psychic distance was seemingly irrelevant to charities' internationalisation decisions. Rather, a construct termed for present purposes as ‘philanthropic imperative’ constituted a crucial determinant of behaviour. The results imply that charities' levels of involvement in networks should be encouraged and that charity support organisations need to develop their institutional networking facilities. Also, charity managers should question whether the most favoured mode of entry to foreign countries (i.e. the ad hoc project partnership (PP)) is necessarily the most effective.

Copyright © 2009 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Testing hypotheses with fuzzy data: The fuzzy <Emphasis Type="Bold">p</Emphasis>-value

Statistical hypothesis testing is very important for finding decisions in practical problems. Usually, the underlying data are assumed to be precise numbers, but it is much more realistic in general to consider fuzzy values which are non-precise numbers. In this case the test statistic will also yield a non-precise number. This article presents an approach for statistical testing at the basis of fuzzy values by introducing the fuzzy p-value. It turns out that clear decisions can be made outside a certain interval which is determined by the characterizing function of the fuzzy p-values.