Devaluation in a neo-Keynesian temporary equilibrium

We analyse a two sector open economy model in which prices are rigid and markets clear by quantity adjustments. We consider the case of Keynesian unemployment (excess supplies of labour and of the non-traded good), and derive conditions under which devaluation will be expansionary and will improve the balance of trade.     

Relaxing the sure-solvency conditions in temporary equilibrium models

The usual temporary equilibrium results hold when sure-solvency conditions are appropriately relaxed. Preferences over potentially bankrupt states are represented by an extension of the indirect utility function for negative wealth. For models without institutional constraints such as margin requirements, sure-solvency can be replaced by unbounded aversion to bankruptcy. For models with institutional constraints, sure-solvency can be replaced by a weaker limit on maximum loss (or expected loss).     

The temporary equilibrium method: Hicks against Hicks

Abstract

Hicks is renowned for having introduced the temporary equilibrium framework in his book Value and Capital. Subsequently, however, he partially recanted this framework by rejecting the market clearing idea while still keeping the week device. The aim of this paper is to assess whether this change was right. My answer will be broadly negative. To make my point, I will ponder on the meaning and implications of the week device, assess the validity of Hicks' claim that slow adjustment can cause market rationing, examine his claim that the possibility of market clearing depends on the prevailing market form and, finally, assess his twofold filiations towards Marshall and Walras.     

Repressed inflation in the Soviet Union: A temporary equilibrium approach

The Soviet economy is modeled by means of temporary general equilibrium theory. Three temporary equilibrium states are distinguished. In Walrasian equilibrium, all markets clear. Under repressed inflation, there is excess consumer demand for goods marketed by the state, while consumer demand is deficient in the underconsumption regime. The dynamics of these temporary equilibrium states are studied and the dynamic adjustment equations fitted to Soviet data. Simulation of the model offers an explanation for the tendency of the inventories/cash balances ratio to fall since 1965.     

The convergence of least squares learning in stochastic temporary equilibrium models

Summary. This paper provides conditions for the almost sure convergence of the least squares learning rule in a stochastic temporary equilibrium model, where regressions are performed on the past values of the endogenous state variable. In contrast to earlier studies, (Evans and Honkapohja, 1998; Marcent and Sargent, 1989), which were local analyses, the dynamics are studied from a global viewpoint, which allows one to obtain an almost sure convergence result without employing projection facilities. Received: April 7, 2001; revised version: September 5, 2001     

Dynamic aspects in a temporary equilibrium of international trade with quantity rationing

The dynamics of a small open economy are analyzed in a context where economic agents have uncertain expectations about future market dates such as prices and wages or quantity constraints. The dynamic adjustment process is shown to be a stable one, and conditions are discussed under which exogeneous shocks will alter the asymptotic equilibrium of the economy. The economic system in general does not approach the long-run equilibrium monotonically, i.e. the adjustment process has a cyclical pattern.     

Consumption and time in economics: prices and quantities in a temporary equilibrium perspective

The main tenet of the paper is that cost-plus non-competitiveprices, while obviously set by firms according to expected marketdemand for their output, can be assumed to be independent ofpossible discrepancies between the expected and the actual demandfor firms' output. The analysis is placed within Hicks's temporaryequilibrium framework, though suggesting an explanation of demandtotally different from Hicks's. It is argued that the rationalefor the independence of prices from actual sales might be foundin Gossen's notion of optimum frequency of consumption.     

考虑均值—方差多目标决策的报童模型研究

考虑到传统报童模型忽视了对风险的关注,引入了方差来度量报童面临的风险,从而将报童的期望利润最大化的单目标决策问题扩展为均值-方差多目标决策问题。首先利用绝对最优解和有效解的概念分析了多目标决策问题的相关性质,然后利用加权法将其转化为单目标决策问题进行求解,最后通过数值实验研究了权系数和需求波动对报童最优订货量的影响。     

Credit rationing as a (temporary) suboptimal equilibrium with imperfect information

Jaffee and Russell (1976) characterized partial rationing as a contract rate and contract size below those of the no-rationing equilibrium. Their non-price rationing here obtains as a suboptimal equilibrium for a risk-averse rate-setting intermediary with marginal increasing cost and a monopolistically competitive loan demand. The temporary (dis)equilibrium corresponds to a dominated strategy, and the wider class of models of which J-R's solution is but a singular case is touched upon.     

Construction of a state space for interrelated securities with an application to temporary equilibrium theory

Summary We construct an endogenous state space in an exchange economy with possibly infinite horizon. Every period agents trade securities whose payoffs depend on future dividends and asset prices. We reject the perfect foresight assumption on the ground that agents have not only limited knowledge of other individuals' endowments and preferences, but also limited capacity to compute equilibria. We choose instead absence of arbitrage as the principle which allows agents to determine if a system of future prices is possible. We give an alogrithm to compute the set of nonarbitrage prices every period, with both finite and infinite horizon. We then apply this endogenous structure of uncertainty to an infinite horizon temporary equilibrium model.I would like to thank Professor Donald Brown for his constant help and guidance. I have also greatly benefited from helpful discussions with Professors Jacques Drèze, Bernard Dumas, Mordecai Kurz, Carsten Nielsen, Jan Werner, and Ho-Mou Wu.     

Non-parametric counterfactual analysis in dynamic general equilibrium

In this paper, we examine non-parametric restrictions on counterfactual analysis in a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model. Under the assumption of time-separable expected utility and complete markets all equilibria in this model are stationary. The Arrow-Debreu prices uniquely reveal the probabilities and discount factor. The equilibrium correspondence, defined as the map from endowments to stationary (probability-free) state prices, is identical to the equilibrium correspondence in a standard Arrow-Debreu exchange economy with additively separable utility. We examine possible restriction on this correspondence and give necessary as well as sufficient conditions on profiles of individual endowments that ensure that associated equilibrium prices cannot be arbitrary. Although restrictions on possible price changes often exist, we show that results from a representative-agent economy usually do not carry over to a setting with heterogeneous agents.     

A policy rule for ‘Say's Law’ in a theory of temporary equilibrium

In a theory of temporary macroeconomic equilibrium this paper considers whether there is a simple nondiscretionary rule of monetary management under which the free play of market forces will always equate aggregate money demand to the sum of expected money incomes, whatever the latter may be, so that aggregate demand ceases to be a determinant of the economy's behavior. The rule proposed is that the Central Bank should let the commercial banks determine their cash reserves by trading negotiable securities with it at current prices. The conditions for the rule's success are given and are supported by theoretical considerations.     

Welfare under friction and uncertainty: General equilibrium evaluation of temporary employment in the U.S.

Temporary contracts usually fall outside of employee protection litigation, thus they are often cheaper than permanent contracts and are offered on-demand by firms. In the last two decades, there has been a sharp growth in such contracts in the U.S. labor market. This paper investigates the welfare consequences of offering temporary contracts in the U.S., an environment with low employee protection litigation and high production risk for firms. Employee protection litigation creates firing rigidity in regular labor markets. Pairing firing rigidity with high production risk, firms reduce employment and output, which generates welfare loss. The inexpensive and flexible nature of temporary contracts offers firms a buffer strategy in making employment decisions under risk and navigating the firing rigidity of the regular labor sector, thereby reducing welfare loss. However, temporary contracts cannot fully compensate for the efficiency cost from rising firing rigidity and risk.     

A general equilibrium analysis in the Phillips space

The relationship between inflation and unemployment is analyzed within a general equilibrium framework in which the equilibrium rates of inflation and unemployment are solved simultaneously. The locus of points in the Phillips (inflation-unemployment) space depends on the dynamic adjustment mechanism postulated and the value of the behavioral parameters of the model. Changes in fiscal and monetary policy may lead to clockwise or counter-clockwise loops or spirals and to movement of the system in any direction in the Phillips space. The traditional inverse relationship between inflation and unemployment represents only one of a number of possibilities.     

A general equilibrium analysis of financial regulation

This paper utilizes a general equilibrium approach to investigate the factor returns and output effects on a regulated and unregulated sector from imposition of a rate of return on investment regulatory constraint. The results differ from those of the ‘traditional’ partial equilibrium model of the regulated firm as originally developed by Averch and Johnson (AJ). The differences are explained by the fact that the general equilibrium approach assumes the existence of efficient capital markets whereas the AJ approach does not. Introduction of the competitive capital market framework in the study of financial regulation through the general equilibrium methodology is this paper's major contribution.     

Advancing economic analysis beyond the equilibrium framework

Twentieth century economics was dominated by the development and refinement of the concept of economic equilibrium. While it is worthwhile to understand the properties of economic equilibrium, equilibrium concepts have dominated economic thought to the point that they have obscured some of the more important issues economists have always strived to understand. At least since Adam Smith’s time, economists have tried to understand the causes of prosperity, and how economic welfare can be enhanced, but these issues are best understood outside the equilibrium framework. The foundations provided by the Austrian school point toward ways that economic analysis can expand beyond the equilibrium framework.