An anatomy of trading strategies

In this article we use a single unifying framework to analyzethe sources of profits to a wide spectrum of return-based tradingstrategies implemented in the literature. We show that lessthan 50% of the 120 strategies implemented in the article yieldstatistically significant profits and, unconditionally, momentumand contrarian strategies are equally likely to be successful.However, when we condition on the return horizon (short, medium,or long) of the strategy, or the time period during which itis implemented, two patterns emerge. A momentum strategy isusually profitable at the medium (3- to 12-months) horizon,while a contrarian strategy nets statistically significant profitsat long horizons, but only during the 1926-1947 subperiod. Moreimportantly, our results show that the cross-sectional variationin the mean returns of individual securities included in thesestrategies play an important role in their profitability. Thecross-sectional variation can potentially account for the profitabilityof momentum strategies and it is also responsible for attenuatingthe profits from price reversals to long-horizon contrarianstrategies.     

Internal audit reporting lines,fraud risk decomposition,and assessments of fraud risk

The main purpose of this research is to examine the effects of internal audit reporting lines on fraud risk assessments made by internal auditors when the level of fraud risk varies. Significant emphasis has been placed on the importance of reporting lines in maintaining the autonomy of internal auditors, but the perceived benefits of requiring internal audit to report directly to the audit committee have not been validated or systematically investigated. Results of an experiment involving 172 experienced internal auditors and additional survey findings indicate that internal auditors perceive more personal threats when they report high levels of risk directly to the audit committee, relative to management. Perceived threats lead internal auditors to reduce assessed levels of fraud risk when reporting to the audit committee relative to when reporting to management. This finding runs counter to the anticipated benefits of requirements that the internal audit function report directly to the audit committee, and it reveals potential conflicts of interest and independence threats created by the audit committee itself. We also investigate the effects of fraud risk decomposition on risk assessments made by internal auditors. We find that fraud risk assessment decomposition does not have the same effects on internal auditors as it has on external auditors, and the effects of decomposition do not align with the expected benefits of decomposition.     

银行卡欺诈与防范对策探析

随着银行卡业务迅速扩张和竞争日趋激烈,各类银行卡犯罪也相伴而生,信用卡套现、伪卡欺诈、ATM资金诈骗及短信和电话转账诈骗等案件日益增加.银行卡犯罪手段不断向高科技化、集团化、专业化和规模化发展,案件实施过程更为隐蔽,手法不断翻新,对银行和持卡人的资金安全构成了严重威胁.     

Conservatism,SEC investigation,and fraud

We present evidence on the relationship between firms that have engaged in fraudulent financial reporting and accounting conservatism. We empirically investigate the extent to which US firms identified by the SEC in their Enforcement Releases demonstrate higher levels of conditional conservatism in order to mitigate information asymmetry and agency problems. Specifically, by assessing the timing of changes in the litigation risk environment for fraud firms, we document how differences in heightened legal liability guide changes in conservative accounting behavior. Compared to a matched non-fraud control sample, we document that fraud firms have significantly lower levels of accounting conservatism in the pre-fraud period. Consistent with changes in potential legal liability, we find an increase in accounting conservatism for fraud firms during the SEC investigation period. Subsequently, during the public discovery of fraud, any increases in accounting conservatism are marginal and appear to converge back to lower levels compared to the SEC investigation period. Overall, our findings suggest more temporary changes in conservative reporting in the short-term for fraud firms. We also document that increased levels of accounting conservatism for fraud firms are not due solely to the passage of the SOX Act. Our findings aid in explaining fraud firms’ incentives and opportunities for accounting conservatism and lend support for why standard setters, regulators and auditors should continue to monitor and re-evaluate conservatism’s short-term effects that are conditioned on changes in a firm’s risk environment.     

Linkages between organizational goals,strategies, and the budget process

This case is ideally suited to integrate organizational goals and strategies with budgeting, feedback, and variance analysis. It demonstrates the interplay between the budget process and organizational goals and strategies. The case is also useful in integrating accounting concepts with concepts which students have studied in management or organizational behavior courses. It suggests that the way that managers respond to variances is affected by the environment in which the firm operates and the product(s) manufactured by the firm. This case is based upon an actual situation in which a firm experienced rapid growth through acquisition. Integration of the budget process with organizational goals and strategies enhances the students' interest and their understanding of the role of budgets in the planning and control process. The case demonstrates that budgets are part of a “big picture,” and can be traced and related to managerial goals and strategies. Further, the case allows students to develop an understanding and appreciation of variance analysis. The case has been used successfully with undergraduate cost accounting students and with participants in a 2-week executive-education program. The students find the case interesting and are eager to participate in the discussion.     

伪造身份证取款引发的纠纷及其启示

银行卡使银行操作的一大部分由人工变为机器,导致了一定风险,也引发了不少法律纠纷。尤其是银行卡中的存款被冒领更足经常见诸报端。对这种纠纷,各地法院适用法律、判决结果不完全相同,影响了法律的统一性,同时也引起了法律界、金融界较大的关注。     

一起信用卡诈骗案件评析

案情简介1998年被告人陈某在明知自己无偿还能力的情况下,仍持其牡丹卡、太平洋卡先后在江苏省无锡市、常熟市、上海市、杭州市、深圳市和东莞市等地,采用小额取现、刷卡消费等手段,恶意透支190笔,共计透支数额181008.82元。张家港市人民检察院以被告人陈某犯信用卡诈骗罪,向张家港市人民法院提起     

Financial fraud,director reputation,and shareholder wealth

We investigate the reputational impact of financial fraud for outside directors based on a sample of firms facing shareholder class action lawsuits. Following a financial fraud lawsuit, outside directors do not face abnormal turnover on the board of the sued firm but experience a significant decline in other board seats held. This decline in other directorships is greater for more severe allegations of fraud and when the outside director bears greater responsibility for monitoring fraud. Interlocked firms that share directors with the sued firm also exhibit valuation declines at the lawsuit filing. Fraud-affiliated directors are more likely to lose directorships at firms with stronger corporate governance and their departure is associated with valuation increases for these firms.     

A theorem on translations by Hille,and its interpretation from the point of view of the theory of probability

Abstract

The Taylor expansion of a function around a point a may, as is well-known, be formally written      

Ownership structure,corporate governance,and fraud: Evidence from China

Our study examines whether ownership structure and boardroom characteristics have an effect on corporate financial fraud in China. The data come from the enforcement actions of the Chinese Securities Regulatory Commission (CSRC). The results from univariate analyses, where we compare fraud and no-fraud firms, show that ownership and board characteristics are important in explaining fraud. However, using a bivariate probit model with partial observability we demonstrate that boardroom characteristics are important, while the type of owner is less relevant. In particular, the proportion of outside directors, the number of board meetings, and the tenure of the chairman are associated with the incidence of fraud. Our findings have implications for the design of appropriate corporate governance systems for listed firms. Moreover, our results provide information that can inform policy debates within the CSRC.     

系统性金融风险文献综述:现状、发展与展望

防范风险是我国金融业的永恒主题。如何有效应对金融系统的异常波动、缓释国际市场的外部冲击、精准处置重点领域风险,仍将是我国“十四五”期间的重要任务。本文分别基于系统性金融风险的有效测度、传染溢出、驱动因素、前瞻预测,以及其与宏观经济的相互作用关系、风险调控政策与政策的有效性、监管理念发展等不同视角,对272篇国内外顶级(权威)文献进行了全面、深入的梳理与总结,并展望该领域的重点研究方向,从而为我国构建金融风险防控长效机制、完善“双循环”新格局下的金融监管体系提供参考,以牢牢守住不发生系统性金融风险的底线,推动经济社会高质量发展。     

Framing,decision-aid systems,and culture: Exploring influences on fraud investigations

We conducted an experiment to investigate the influence of the framing of reports, the type of decision-aid system, and the cultural background of the decision maker on the intention to investigate fraud. We compared decisions made from reports generated by automated and manual systems to explore whether automated systems exacerbated or ameliorated the framing bias. We also explored whether the cultural background of participants—Americans and Mexicans—influenced the decision. Results indicated that the influence of type of system and framing are culturally dependent. When the framing highlights the possibility of the results being incorrect, people take a more cautious approach and the intention to investigate fraud is lower compared to the framing that highlights the probability of the results being correct. Automated systems appear to ameliorate the framing bias in the American sample and preserve the framing bias in the Mexican sample. The reason for the different impact of automated systems appears to be in how Americans and Mexicans perceive decision-aid systems. Americans are less likely to trust automated systems and more likely to trust manual systems than Mexicans. Mexicans, on the other hand, rely more on automated systems and evaluate their reputation at a higher level than Americans.     

The effects of experience and explicit fraud risk assessment in detecting fraud with analytical procedures

This paper reports the results of an experiment that examined the effects of audit experience and explicit fraud risk assessment instructions on the effectiveness of analytical procedures in detecting financial statement fraud. The results of this study suggest that audit managers are more effective than audit seniors in assessing the risk of fraud with analytical procedures. Additionally, explicit fraud risk assessment instructions resulted in more effective assessments of the presence of fraud. These results have implications for the assignment of auditors to tasks and the structuring of these tasks.     

Anti-money laundering and financial fraud detection: A systematic literature review

Money laundering has affected the global economy for many years, and there are several methods of solving it presented in the literature. However, when tackling money laundering and financial fraud together there are few methods for solving them. Thus, this study aims to identify methods for anti-money laundering (AML) and financial fraud detection (FFD). A systematic literature review was performed for analysis and research of the methods used, utilizing the SCOPUS and Web of Science databases. Of the 48 articles that aligned with the research theme, 20 used quantitative methods for AML and FFD solution, 13 were literature reviews, 7 used qualitative methods, and 8 used mixed methods. This study contributes by presenting a systematic literature review that fills two research gaps: lack of studies on AML and FFD, and the methods used to solve them. This will assist researchers in identifying gaps and related research.     

系统性金融风险成因、度量及监管研究综述

在当今经济社会中,防范系统性金融风险,提高金融业抗风险能力,受到了国内外政府机构和学者的空前关注.本文从系统性金融风险的成因、度量、监管三个角度,对国内外文献进行了分析整理.其中,系统性金融风险的成因有溢出效应、金融业的过度创新、信息不对称和金融市场的高杠杆性;系统性金融风险的度量办法主要有指标法和模型法;系统性金融风险的监管措施则主要包括监管主体、监管手段和宏观审慎监管三个方面.最后,就系统性金融风险成因的识别、度量和监管的优化以及宏观审慎框架的建立健全方面提出了建议.     

卡片不在现场欺诈风险及防控措施探析

卡片不在现场欺诈(Card-Not-Present fraud,CNP fraud)是指信用卡和持卡人均不在销售终端,欺诈分子以非法方式,如黑客攻击、拷贝他人消费收据信息、销售终端员工非法记录他人信用卡信息等,盗取信用卡信息,继而通过线上渠道实施的盗刷行为。     

Measuring, explaining, and controlling tax evasion: lessons from theory, experiments, and field studies

In this paper, I assess what we have learned about tax evasion since Michael Allingham and Agnar Sandmo launched the modern analysis of tax evasion in 1972. I focus on three specific questions and the answers to these questions that have emerged over the years. First, how do we measure the extent of evasion? Second, how can we explain these patterns of behavior? Third, how can we use these insights to control evasion? In the process, I illustrate my own answers to these questions by highlighting various specific examples of research. My main conclusion is that we have learned many things but that we also still have many gaps in our understanding of how to measure, explain, and control tax evasion. I also give some suggestions—and some predictions—about where promising avenues of future research may lie.     

Systemic Risk, Dollarization, and Interest Rates in Emerging Markets: A Panel-Based Approach

This study investigates the impact of systemic risks and financialdollarization on real interest rates in emerging economies.Higher systemic risks induce both higher real interest ratesand increased dollarization. Using appropriate instruments forthe dollarization ratio, the study overcomes the simultaneousequation problem and correctly estimates a negative coefficientfor the dollarization ratio in the interest rate equation. Itconfirms the theoretical prediction that a strategy of "dedollarizing"the economy will raise the equilibrium domestic real interestrate if the strategy fails to address fundamental macroeconomicrisks. Even so, it also finds that this effect is small, aftercontrolling for the risks of dilution and default. The resultsbring to light the systemic-risk reasons for high interest ratesin emerging economies—and contribute to evaluating thedifficulties of dedollarization policies.     

A comparison of the financial institutions' view and the market's view of country creditworthiness

In 1979, both Institutional Investor and Euromoney began publishing country risk ratings. For years, international commercial bankers have used these rating services as part of their international evaluation process for lending to sovereign governments. An examination of these services suggests that Institutional Investor's ratings, which are based upon questionnaire responses from commercial bankers, reflect the financial institutions' perception of country creditworthiness. On the other hand, Euromoney's ratings represent a market view in that they are based upon data observed from financial and credit markets. The purpose of this article is to investigate the consistency between the financial institutions' view and the market's view in assessing the creditworthiness of developing and newly industrialized countries.