Demographics and aggregate household saving in Japan,China, and India

We use a model of household life-cycle saving decisions to quantify the impact of demographic changes on aggregate household saving rates in Japan, China, and India. The observed age distributions help explain the contrasting saving patterns over time across the three countries. In the model simulations, the growing number of retirees suppresses Japanese saving rates, while decreasing family size increases saving for both China and India. Projecting forward, the model predicts a decline in household saving rates in Japan and China.     

Patrilocality and human capital accumulationEvidence from Central Asia1

Anthropologists estimate that 70 percent of human societies are patrilocal, meaning that adult sons reside with their parents, and that wives go to live with their husbands’ families upon marriage. Yet very little is known about how this widespread social norm influences intrahousehold resource allocation and, through this, economic development. This paper examines the effects of patrilocality on schooling and household educational expenditures in Tajikistan. To identify the causal effect of living in a three versus two generation household on these outcomes, exogenous variation in housing availability across communities is exploited. It is shown that the impacts of living in a three generation household are important for both school enrolment and for educational spending. The results suggest that one reason why patrilocal societies remain poorer than those with nuclear household norms is that three generation households make relatively few human capital investments in the youngest generation. Patrilocality, which probably evolved to solve coordination problems in agrarian societies, may thus be a cause rather than simply a correlate of low educational attainment in developing countries.     

Expenditure behavior and children's welfare: an analysis of female headed households in Jamaica

This paper presents an analysis on the expenditure behavior and children's welfare among female-headed households in Jamaica. Included in the examination of household composition are the demographic effects, endogeneity of total expenditure, the headship variable and the endogeneity of family structure. Using the 1989 Jamaican Survey of Living Conditions (SLC), expenditure estimation on over 100 goods for 3500 household was examined. This study utilized the Ordinary Least Square estimates, 2 SLC and endogeneity tests, and partnered and unpartnered household heads. Results for the demand for preventive health care were significant among older children in female-headed households, with a 4% increase in the probability of a check-up across all ages. This study presents a partial explanation of lower morbidity rates in female-headed households despite lower budget and total per capita expenditure levels. In conclusion, this study confirms the significant influence of sex and union status of the household head on household expenditure behaviors with implications for individual household members, with more positive outcomes among children despite differences in budget allocation and lower health expenditures.     

An economic profile of peasant perpetrators of genocide: Micro-level evidence from Rwanda

This paper presents the results of a research project in which we have traced 350 Rwandan households who were part of a rural household survey before the Rwandan genocide (1994). Economic, demographic and agricultural data from an extensive 1989–1992 survey can be linked with the condition of the household at the time of the Genocide Transition Survey (2000). This allows us to study the fate of the household members during the genocide. Our results show that age, sex, the sex of the head of the household, the size of rented land, off-farm income, gross household income and farm-level anti-erosion investment significantly determine the probability of a household member to become a perpetrator of genocide. These results are interpreted in the political economy of Rwanda.     

IS JAPAN'S HOUSEHOLD SAVING RATE REALLY HIGH?

This paper discusses, and measures the quantitative impact of, a number of conceptual issues relating to the household saving rate data in the National Accounts of Japan. It finds that Japan's seemingly high household saving rate is biased due to the exclusion of capital transfers and real capital gains, the valuation of depreciation at historical cost rather than at replacement cost, the use of a residual measure of financial saving rather than Flow of Funds Accounts data thereon, and the treatment of expenditures on consumer durables as consumption rather than as saving, but that the biases are to a considerable extent mutually offsetting. It also finds that the Japan-U.S. gap in household (personal) saving rates is due largely to conceptual differences and deficiencies and that household saving in Japan consists primarily of financial saving (net lending), meaning that most of it is available to finance investment in other sectors of the economy and/or abroad.     

Are the Japanese Selfish,Altruistic or Dynastic?

I analyse a variety of evidence for Japan and, where available, for the United States on bequest practices, the importance and nature of bequest motives, bequest division, the willingness of individuals to help others, etc., in order to shed light on which model of household behaviour applies in the two countries. My results suggest that the selfish lifecycle model is the dominant model of household behaviour in both countries but that it is far more applicable in Japan; that the dynasty model is also more applicable in Japan but is not of dominant importance even there; and, conversely, that the altruism model is far more applicable in the USA. JEL Classification Numbers: D12, D64, D91, E21.     

On the distributional properties of household consumption expenditures: the case of Italy

In this paper we explore the statistical properties of the distributions of consumption expenditures for a large sample of Italian households in the period 1989–2004. Goodness-of-fit tests show that household aggregate (and age-conditioned) consumption distributions are not log-normal. Rather, their logs can be invariably characterized by asymmetric exponential-power densities. Departures from log-normality are mainly due to the presence of thick lower tails coexisting with upper tails thinner than Gaussian ones. The emergence of this irreducible heterogeneity in statistical patterns casts some doubts on the attempts to explain log-normality of household consumption patterns by means of simple models based on Gibrat’s Law applied to permanent income and marginal utility.     

The distribution of household consumption-expenditure budget shares

This paper explores the statistical properties of household consumption-expenditure budget share distributions – defined as the share of household total expenditure spent for purchasing a specific category of commodities – for a large sample of Italian households in the period 1989–2004. We find that household budget share distributions are fairly stable over time for each specific category, but profoundly heterogeneous across commodity categories. We then derive a parametric density that is able to satisfactorily characterize (from a univariate perspective) household budget share distributions and: (i) is consistent with the observed statistical properties of the underlying levels of household consumption-expenditure distributions; (ii) can accommodate the observed across-category heterogeneity in household budget-share distributions. Finally, we taxonomize commodity categories according to the estimated parameters of the proposed density. We show that the resulting classification is consistent with the traditional economic scheme that labels commodities as necessary, luxury or inferior.     

Micro-simulation and Normative Policy Evaluation: An Application to Some EU Tax Benefits Systems

In this work we explore the impact of alternative tax benefits systems on household welfare. The framework of our analysis is the theory of optimal taxation with the distribution of potential wages replaced by the distribution of household abilities. The latter has been calculated by inversion of the household's utility maximization problem. This methodology has then been implemented in order to compare the tax benefits systems of France and the United Kingdom. We have employed a behavioral micro‐simulation model that has been applied on samples extracted from the “Households Budget Survey 1989” of INSEE and from the “Family Expenditure Survey” of ONS.     

A BOUNDED INDEX TEST TO MAKE ROBUST HETEROGENEOUS WELFARE COMPARISONS

Fleurbaey et al. (2003) develop a bounded dominance test to make robust welfare comparisons, which is intermediate between Ebert's (1999) cardinal dominance criterion—generalized Lorenz dominance applied to household incomes, divided and weighted by an equivalence scale—and Bourguignon's (1989) ordinal dominance criterion. In this paper, we develop a more complete, but less robust bounded index test, which is intermediate between Ebert's (1997) cardinal index test—an index applied to household incomes, divided and weighted by the equivalence scale—and a (new) sequential index test—an index applied to household incomes of the most needy only, the most and second most needy only, and so on. We illustrate the power of our test to detect welfare changes in Russia using data of the RLMS-surveys.     

户籍管制、基本公共服务供给与城市化——基于城市特征与流动人口监测数据的经验分析

本文在理论分析户籍管制、基本公共服务供给对城市化影响的基础上，利用2015年240个城市特征数据与2016年流动人口监测微观数据进行了实证检验。研究结果显示，户籍管制抑制了流动人口迁移的稳定性与完整性，是城市选择性吸纳高禀赋人口的重要制度工具。提高基本公共服务供给有助于促进流动人口自身稳定与家庭完整迁移，但基本公共服务的正向作用不足以抵消户籍管制的负向影响。研究结果还发现户籍管制、基本公共服务供给对流动人口迁移稳定性与完整性的影响存在个体差异。户籍管制制约了新生代流动人口迁移的稳定性与完整性，增加基本公共服务供给则有利于新生代流动人口与高禀赋人口的稳定与完整迁移。     

Book reviews

Innovation and Industrial Strength in the UK, West Germany, United States and Japan Joan Cox & Herbert Kriegbaum London, Policy Studies Institute, 1989, 168pp. Industrial Societies After the Stagnation of the 1970s. Taking Stock from an Interdisciplinary Perspective Burkhard Strumpel (ed.) Berlin, de Gruyter, 1989, 313pp.

The Social Basis of the Microelectronics Revolution Alfonso Hernan Molina Edinburgh, Edinburgh University Press, 1989, xxi + 260pp., £25.00 h/b (also avail-able in p/b)

Innovation and Technology Transfer in Japan and Europe: Industry-Academic Relations Glynn 0. Philips (assisted by Michael Hughes) London, Routledge, 1990, 282pp.) £45.00

Banking 1992-A Eurostudy Special Report Ian Gillespie (ed.) I,ondon, Eurostudy Publishing, 1990, 162pp., $£60 ($99)     

Book reviews

Innovation and Industrial Strength in the UK, West Germany, United States and Japan Joan Cox &; Herbert Kriegbaum London, Policy Studies Institute, 1989, 168pp. Industrial Societies After the Stagnation of the 1970s. Taking Stock from an Interdisciplinary Perspective Burkhard Strumpel (ed.) Berlin, de Gruyter, 1989, 313pp.

The Social Basis of the Microelectronics Revolution Alfonso Hernan Molina Edinburgh, Edinburgh University Press, 1989, xxi + 260pp., £25.00 h/b (also avail-able in p/b)

Innovation and Technology Transfer in Japan and Europe: Industry-Academic Relations Glynn 0. Philips (assisted by Michael Hughes) London, Routledge, 1990, 282pp.) £45.00

Banking 1992-A Eurostudy Special Report Ian Gillespie (ed.) I,ondon, Eurostudy Publishing, 1990, 162pp., $£60 ($99)     

The Corporate State,Economic Performance,and Social Policy

We use the Survey of Consumer Finances to analyze changes in U.S. household debt between 1989 and 2013. We focus on how income and debt levels have changed, and what this means for future economic growth and living standards. Prior to the Great Recession, U.S. households had record high debt levels and record low savings rates. Highly leveraged consumption boosted economic growth. However, large debt burdens have led many families to deleverage. Our study finds that deleveraging has been insufficient. Although debt payments have fallen relative to household income, this is mainly due to low interest rates. Debt levels, especially for home mortgages, remain high by historical standards and portend continued stagnation due to lower consumer spending.     

Does unconventional monetary policy affect inequality? Evidence from Japan

Inequality has been largely ignored in the literature and practice of monetary policy, but is gaining more attention recently. Here, we exclusively focus on the impact of unconventional monetary policy (UMP) on inequality. We look at how the recent UMP in Japan affected inequality, using household survey data. Our vector auto regression (VAR) results show that UMP widened income inequality after 2008Q3 as the Bank of Japan (BoJ) resumed its zero-interest rate policy and reinstated UMP. This is largely due to the portfolio channel. To the best of our knowledge, this is the first study to empirically analyse the distributional impact of UMP. Japan’s extensive experience with UMP may hold important policy implications for other countries.     

THE IMPACT OF BEQUESTS ON LIFETIME WEALTH ACCUMULATION: AN ECONOMETRIC STUDY OF TWO GENERATIONS OF RURAL HOUSEHOLDS IN INDIA

Using retrospective data on bequest receipts and wealth over two generations of rural Indian households, we have estimated the effect of bequest receipts on the lifetime wealth accumulation of recipients. We exploit the availability of data on two generations of the same household by estimating a family fixed effects model that controls for unobserved, intergenerationally-persistent household endowments. Our results suggest an adverse impact of bequest receipts on the wealth accumulation of recipients. This effect is much more negative for the current generation of household heads than for the previous generation, indicating that the disincentive effects associated with bequest receipts have increased substantially over a generation. Such disincentive effects are consistent with the commonly-observed phenomenon of "regression to the mean." The empirical results also show that the positive association between schooling and wealth accumulation has strengthened substantially over the course of a generation, implying rising returns to schooling.     

Household wealth, public consumption and economic well-being in the United States

Standard official measures of household economic well-beingin several countries are based on money income. The generalconsensus is that such measures are limited because they ignorecertain crucial determinants of well-being. We examine two suchdeterminants—household wealth and public consumption—inthe context of the US. Our findings suggest that the level anddistribution of economic well-being is substantially alteredwhen money income is adjusted for wealth or public consumption.Over the 1989–2000 period, median well-being appears toincrease faster when these adjustments are made than when standardmoney income is used. Adding imputed rent and annuity from householdwealth to household income increases measured inequality, whileadding public consumption reduces it. However, all three measuresshow about the same rise in inequality over the period.     

THE DISTRIBUTIONAL CONSEQUENCES OF GOVERNMENT SPENDING AND TAXATION IN THE U.S., 1989 AND 2000

We assess the effects of government expenditures and taxation on household economic well-being in the United States in 1989 and 2000. Net government expenditure is estimated as the difference between government expenditures incurred on behalf of the household sector—transfers and public consumption—and the taxes paid by that sector. We incorporate the estimates of net government expenditures into a wealth-adjusted measure of income. We find that overall inequality in our income measure is considerably reduced by net government expenditures. Results from decomposition analysis show that the inequality-reducing effect of net government expenditures owed more to expenditures than to taxes.     

日本海洋科技开发战略及动向

日本是能源和矿产资源极为稀缺的国家,为了摆脱在资源和能源领域受制于人的被动局面,日本正在制定雄心勃勃的海洋开发战略,希望通过促进"产官学研"密切协作的方式,在海洋开发上获得突破。日本海洋开发的重要领域包括:海底可燃冰、海底稀土、海底热水矿床、海水提取锂、海流发电、海上风电及海洋藻类生物燃料。通过对日本政府指导海洋开发的纲领性文件《海洋基本计划》的分析与研究,期望对我国未来制定较为全面的海洋科技开发战略提供参考。     

POVERTY IN PRE-REFORM UZBEKISTAN: WHAT DO OFFICIAL DATA REALLY REVEAL?

Using 1989 household survey data, we investigate large differences in poverty measured with a conventional all-Union per capita income line between Uzbekistan, the largest Central Asian republic of the former U.S.S.R., and Ukraine as an example of a European republic. We show that (i) differences between the two countries in the distribution of household size is not the main explanation, (ii) undervaluation of agricultural income in kind understates the welfare of rural households, something of particular importance in Uzbekistan, and (iii) indicators of food consumption provide important additional information. Lessons are drawn for the measurement of poverty in post-Union Uzbekistan.