The Distribution of Multifamily Mortgage Originations: What We Know and Why We Care

Three policy-relevant questions about multifamily mortgage originations (MFOs) are addressed. First, what is the annual volume of MFOs? This analysis highlights differences and problems among three publicly available multifamily lending surveys; the 1993 volume is estimated at $30 billion. Second, what is the size distribution of multifamily mortgages? Using kernel density estimation, variation in this distribution among central cities and suburbs, underserved areas, and lender type is examined. Third, what are the primary determinants of the variation in multifamily lending? A relatively simple regression model is estimated to shed light on the variables most highly correlated with multifamily lending. Tract income relative to MSA median income and minority concentrations are shown to be highly correlated with lending volume, but the largest source of variation is the number of multifamily rental units in the tract.     

Spillover effects of subprime mortgage originations: The effects of single-family mortgage credit expansion on the multifamily rental market

The dramatic expansion in subprime mortgage credit fueled a remarkable boom and bust in the US housing market and created a global financial crisis. Even though considerable research examines the housing and mortgage markets during the previous decade, how the expansion in mortgage credit affected the rental market remains unclear; and yet, over 30 percent of all U.S. households reside in the rental market. Our study fills this gap by showing how the multifamily rental market was adversely affected by the development of subprime lending in the single-family market before the advent of the 2007/2008 subprime induced financial crisis. We provide evidence for a fundamentals based linkage by which the effect of an innovation in one market (i.e, the growth in subprime mortgage originations) is propagated through to another market. Using a large database of residential rental lease payment records, our results confirm that the expansion in subprime lending corresponds with an overall decline in the quality of rental payments. Finally, we present evidence showing that the financial performance of multifamily rental properties reflected the increase in rental lease defaults.     

美国商业房地产复苏的实证分析及趋势判断

美国商业房地产特别是多家庭住房是支撑本轮经济复苏的重要力量。商业房地产中公寓楼空置率最低且下降最快,但需求扩张力度在减缓。商业抵押恢复较为缓陵,收缩幅度呈缩小趋势,可能成为继多家庭抵押之后房地产复苏支撑力量。商业房地产复苏有相当强的联邦政府支持背景,机构和GSE支持抵押池、国民存款机构和私人养老基金的抵押对商业房地产复苏的支撑力度在逐渐加大。商业和多家庭抵押的信用风险状况改善较快。未来商业房地产价格呈上升趋势,但公寓楼价格升势可能减缓。商业房地产销售缓慢增长;多家庭住房销售呈扩张趋势,但势头逐渐减缓。多家庭租房空置率降势在下半年可能转为缓升势头;住房开工扩张势头开始减缓,明年可能平稳或发生变化。商业抵押呈波动式缓良扩张态势;多家庭抵押持续扩张势头减缓,明年下半年可能逆转。商业房地产抵押贷款支持证券（CMBS）发行扩张,但余额扩张缓陵。商业抵押、商业银行商业抵押以及CMBS的拖欠率继续下降各级CMBS的风险利差可能平稳波动或缓慢趋高。商业房地产市场的活跃程度可能略有加强,明年商业房地产整体情况将略好于今年。     

An analysis of default risk in the Home Equity Conversion Mortgage (HECM) program

While reverse mortgages are intended as a tool to enable financial security for older homeowners, in 2014, nearly 12 percent of reverse mortgage borrowers in the federally insured Home Equity Conversion Mortgage (HECM) program were in default on their property taxes or homeowners insurance. Unlike the traditional mortgage market, there were no risk-based underwriting guidelines for HECMs through 2014. In response to the relatively high default rate, a variety of policy responses were implemented, including establishing underwriting guidelines. However, there is a lack of data and analysis to inform such criteria. Our analysis follows 30,000 seniors counseled for reverse mortgages between 2006 and 2011. The data includes comprehensive financial and credit report attributes, not typically available in analyses of reverse mortgage borrowers. Using a bivariate probit model that accounts for selection, we estimate the likelihood of tax and insurance default. Financial characteristics that increase default risk include the percentage of funds withdrawn in the first month of the loan, a lower credit score, higher property tax to income ratio, low or no unused revolving credit, and a history of being past due on mortgage payments or having a tax lien on the property. Our estimate of the elasticity of default with respect to credit scores is similar to that for closed-end home equity loans, but higher than that for HELOCs. We simulate the effects of alternative underwriting criteria and policy changes on the probability of take-up and default. Reductions in the default rate with a minimal effect on participation can be achieved by requiring that participants with low credit scores set aside some of their HECM funds for future property tax and insurance payments, a form of escrowing.     

An Examination of Mortgage Debt Characteristics and Financial Risk among Multifamily Properties

Using the 1996 Property Owners and Managers Survey (POMS), the authors (1) examine the mortgage debt characteristics of multifamily properties; (2) estimate the size and potential for growth of the multifamily mortgage debt market; and (3) examine the financial characteristics of multifamily properties, each with particular attention to differences by property size. While the authors find that the POMS suffers from severe missing value problems, their analysis indicates large differences in the likelihood that a property has a mortgage, the interest rate conditional on having a mortgage, and indicators of financial distress among properties of different size. They also find that smaller properties, with large potential for growth in multifamily mortgage lending, have much higher concentrations of low- to moderate-income tenants but that larger properties provide the bulk of units that serve these renters.     

Payment changes and default risk: The impact of refinancing on expected credit losses

This paper analyzes how access to credit and the path of mortgage rates can affect borrower credit risk. This is a crucial issue for evaluating refinance programs as a form of loss mitigation, and it became prominent in the debates around the Treasury Department's Home Affordable Refinance Program (HARP). These debates exposed gaps in the literature on the relationship between credit performance and changes in borrowers’ monthly mortgage payments. Since then, several new studies have attempted to fill these holes, each pursing a different methodology. In this paper, we review the relevant debates and look at what downward adjustments in prime adjustable-rate mortgages can tell us about modifications of prime fixed-rate mortgages. We argue that this method better addresses the various sampling biases that plague all attempts to predict HARP's impact. Our analysis indicates that typical monthly payment reductions under HARP would reduce credit losses by 56 basis points.     

小产权房向公共租赁住房转化问题研究

小产权房的存在是“高房价”下的产物，它不仅损害农村集体成员的利益，也会给购买人造成不可避免的风险。以北京为例，目前小产权房问题屡禁不止。时下我国在大力发展公共租赁住房，以此为背景对北京目前存在的小产权房进行全面研究。首先分析目前小产权房存在的原因，再通过二者特征对比进而对其转化的可能性加以论证，最终提出小产权房向公共租赁住房转化的具体建议，以此来解决一直存在且屡禁不止的小产权房问题。     

Subprime mortgage default

This paper constructs a reduced-form credit risk model of mortgage default. The data used is of privately-securitized subprime ARMs (adjustable rate mortgages), originated between 1997 and 2008, and observed between 2000 and 2009. The period studied thus encompasses the beginning of the subprime crisis. Given the estimated model, contractual properties of the loans are then used to infer the market price of default risk for the various quarters of origination. It is empirically determined that a change in the inherent nature of borrowers led to a deterioration in their default performance, a change which can be first detected in late 2004. On the other hand, the evidence also indicates that the secondary mortgage market became aware of this change at about this same time. The large rise in defaults in 2007 cannot, therefore, be attributed to any surprise other than the unexpectedly large fall in housing prices.     

PERFORMANCE OF THE VARIABLE RATE MORTGAGE AND THE BULGARIAN INDEXED CAPPED CREDIT

For countries relying on variable-rate, equal monthly installment mortgages, periods of high or unstable inflation can decimate loan affordability and profitability. The Bulgarian Indexed Capped Credit (BICC) can protect bank returns and radically improve loan affordability. Nevertheless, the instrument has a significantly higher credit risk than a fixed rate mortgage. Using Bulgaria as a model, this paper will review the BICC's benefits for borrowers and lenders. In addition, it will examine the instrument's credit risk and explore one option for reducing that hazard. Finally, this report will examine briefly liquidity risk, consumer acceptance and servicing issues.     

CHOICES AND OPPORTUNITIES: Low-Income Rental Housing in Indonesia*

Rental housing is increasingly acknowledged as a valuable housing solution in developing countries and is therefore becoming a focus for policy discussions. This paper describes the rental market in Indonesia based on the results of 60 semi-structured renter-related interviews. It appears that the rental subsector is housing a large and highly varied portion of the urban population quite effectively. The results of this survey indicate that rental units are generally produced on a small scale on or near the same property as the owner's home. The unit construction occurs in increments as funds become available and is rarely financed formally. This represents an easy and flexible form of investment for a group otherwise generally uninterested in placing savings in formal institutions. The typical rental property owner is less motivated by profit accumulations than by the security of a steady supplemental income and the possibility of a future unit for his children. As a result, tenant-landlord relationships tend to be quite casual and family-like, unlike the exploitative relationship often described. Further studies need to explore how future policy could support the activities of the Indonesian rental market and improve the quality of rental units that are being produced.     

Just the facts: An initial analysis of subprime’s role in the housing crisis

Using two large proprietary datasets from New England, this paper establishes some basic facts about the subprime crisis. First, while unaffordable interest-rate resets are often blamed for setting off this crisis, most subprime borrowers who defaulted did so well in advance of their reset dates. Defaults on subprime adjustable-rate mortgages are more sensitive to declining housing prices than are defaults on fixed-rate loans, however, and the data support a number of alternative explanations for this finding. Second, many borrowers with good credit scores took out subprime loans as the housing boom gathered steam. It is hard to construct a prima facie case that these borrowers were inappropriately steered into the subprime market, however, because the loans that these borrowers took out were too risky for prime treatment. Finally, 70% of Massachusetts homes recently lost to foreclosure were originally purchased with prime mortgages. But subprime refinancing is especially prevalent among owners who were likely to have extracted substantial amounts of equity before they defaulted.     

Stability in consumer credit scores: Level and direction of FICO score drift as a precursor to mortgage default and prepayment

This article represents an extension of the expansive credit risk and credit migration literature, prominent in the corporate bond and securities risk pricing literature, to an analysis of the drift of consumer credit scores. A rich data set of residential mortgages is used to observe credit score migration post loan origination and in a test of the ability of credit score transition to serve as a precursor to potential default and prepayment. The results indicate credit scores provide signals and information to investors and servicing agents in a fashion similar to credit ratings on commercial paper as to default potential.     

公租房小区的特征及治理

公租房小区有三个特征:一是租房者和买房者的混居;二是政府在公租房小区有着相当比重的经济利益;三是居民都是社会的收入中下阶层。公租房小区要避免变成贫民窟,其关键之一是中下阶层的居民能够也愿意参与到小区的治理中来。在此基础上,公租房小区的治理应该强调以小区居民代表为主体组成小区管理委员会,居民代表由居民大会选举产生,买房者的投票权高于租房者,政府代表拥有一定比例的投票权。     

Taxation and Housing Tenure Choice: The Case for Moderate-Income Homeownership

This study explores the financial value of homeownership for households in the 15% Federal tax bracket. Earlier studies concluded homeownership was only for households with high marginal tax rates, but they neglected how vacancy and turnover rates factor into rental prices. Principal innovations here include deriving long-run equilibrium rent-to-value ratios for the rental market and contrasting investor holding periods with lengths of household tenures. Tax regime simulations are performed for homeowner deductions and investor capital gains tax rates.     

Mortgage default in an estimated model of the U.S. housing market

This paper models the housing sector, mortgages and endogenous default in a DSGE setting with nominal and real rigidities. We use data for the period 1981–2006 to estimate our model using Bayesian techniques. We analyze how an increase in risk in the mortgage market raises the default rate and spreads to the rest of the economy, creating a recession. In our model two shocks are well suited to replicate the subprime crisis and the Great Recession: the mortgage risk shock and the housing demand shock. Next we use our estimated model to evaluate a policy that reduces the principal of underwater mortgages. This policy is successful in stabilizing the mortgage market and makes all agents better off.     

Credit rationing, race, and the mortgage market

This study applies microdata from the 1983 Survey of Consumer Finances to evaluate the effects of borrower race and default risk in mortgage lending. The empirical analysis is based on a probit model of whether borrowers obtain FHA or conventional mortgages; the former are fully insured and are characterized by easier downpayment constraints, but are typically more expensive. Hence, households borrowing through the FHA will tend to be credit constrained in the conventional market. Results of the analysis indicate that variables which proxy lender concerns about default risk and cost have an important effect on the type of loan borrowers obtain. Empirical estimates also suggest that minority households are significantly less likely to obtain conventional financing than whites, even after controlling for various proxies of default risk. These results suggest that race effects in mortgage lending may persist for reasons unrelated to borrower default risk.     

The quality assurance role of seller financing: evidence from second mortgages

Quality problems that are known to the seller of a product, but will become known to the buyer only after the purchase have the potential to frustrate voluntary exchanges. Where the determination of quality after the sale is cut-and-dried, brand names and unconditional guarantees will bond contract performance. When the problem is more subtle or confounded by the extent of consumer inputs, requiring risk-sharing by the contracting parties, these bonding devices typically are not sufficient. Under the circumstances, seller financing may be an efficient contracting solution for bonding the quality dimension of the contract. This form of financing makes both the buyer and the seller share the risk that the product may not suit the buyer’s needs in the way promised by the seller. This paper provides further empirical evidence on the quality assurance role of seller financing. We consider seller-financed second mortgages in the National Association of Realtors database. Seller financing in second mortgages may be a supplement to first mortgages supplied by conventional lenders. The role of seller financing as a quality assurance mechanism in second mortgages is more complex than its role in first mortgages, but is also less subject to an alternative interpretation of credit rationing than is its role in seller-financed first mortgages. To avoid further complexities, we do not consider second seller financing transactions that supplement first assumption mortgage transactions.     

各国多元租赁房供给模式与启示

在各国的住房市场上，租赁住房具有不可或缺的地位。它既可满足消费者多样化选择，促进人口劳动力的合理流动，平抑售房市场价格，还可减轻政府公共住房的压力。为培养租赁住房市场，各国政府无不运用财税、金融、法律等多种政策鼓励民营资本进入租赁市场，使得非盈利组织、住房合作社、房地产信托基金、保险公司和私人业主成为租赁住房的主力军。借鉴国外经验，遵循《政府工作报告》中“建机制、补短板、兜底线”的精神，补好住房政策中租赁市场欠发达的短板，鼓励民营资本进入，更有效地解决大城市住房难的问题。     

Environmental Credit Risk Management in Banks and Financial Service Institutions

How do Canadian banks integrate environmental risks into corporate lending and where are they located compared with their global peers? In this paper we report a mixed method analysis of the integration of environmental risks into the credit management. The qualitative and quantitative analyses suggest that all analyzed Canadian commercial banks, credit unions and Export Development Canada manage environmental risks in credit management to avoid financial risks. Some of the institutions even connect environmental and sustainability issues with their general business strategies. Compared with other countries, Canadian banks are best in class, as all six Canadian commercial banks, comprising over 90 percent of Canadian assets, systematically examine environmental risks for credits, loans and mortgages. We conclude that Canadian banks are proactive regarding environmental examinations of loans and that there is a need for a more accountancy related reporting on environmental risk management in financial institutions. Further research is needed to be able to calculate costs and benefits of integrating environmental and sustainability issues into the credit risk management. Copyright © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd and ERP Environment.     

A comparison of household mobility for owned manufactured,traditional owned,and rental units using the American Housing Survey

This study employs data from the national sample of the American Housing Survey to analyze the mobility decisions of families in owned manufactured housing in comparison to families in traditional owned homes and rental units. Specifically a continuous time probability model (CTM) is used to estimate the likelihood of these families moving over the period of 1993–2001. In general, the empirical work suggests that families occupying both owned manufactured housing and traditional owned housing are associated with lower probabilities of moving than comparable households in rental units. Of particular interest is the fact that, ceteris paribus, families in both traditional owned homes and owned manufactured housing exhibit negative duration dependence, or a decreasing probability of moving over time, while for those in rental units duration dependence is positive. These differences are important because of their potential implications for long-term neighborhood stability and, as such, the viability of manufactured housing as an affordable housing alternative for lower income families.