An empirical investigation of customer market analysis–a microfoundation for macroeconomics

The slow adjustment and stickiness of output prices is widely regarded as an important determinant of macroeconomic behaviour. Recently, a number of writers have argued that customer market analysis can provide a microfoundation for price stickiness. This paper develops the theory of a firm selling in a customer market and investigates the empirical implications of the theory. The model is shown to imply a particular pattern of behaviour between retail prices and wholesale prices. Data on retail and wholesale prices for the United States, the United Kingdom and Australia at various levels of aggregation is investigated and found to support the predictions of the customer market model. In the conclusion the macroeconomic implications of the empirical conslusions are drawn out.     

Causes of recurrent unemployment—An empirical analysis

Zusammenfassung Die Determinanten erneuter Betroffenheit von Arbeitslosigkeit werden mittels Individualdaten für einen lokalen Arbeitsmarkt über einen Zeitraum von rund drei Jahren untersucht. Dazu wird ein Probit-Modell mit persönlichen Charakteristika der ehemals Arbeitslosen, der individuellen Arbeitsmarktbiographie im Anschluß an Arbeitslosigkeit, einem Arbeitsmarktindikator und der Arbeitslosenunterstützung als erklärenden Variablen spezifiziert. Die Wahrscheinlichkeit erneuter Betroffenheit von Arbeitslosigkeit hängt primär von bestimmten persönlichen Merkmalen ab. Das Verhältnis der Zahl der Arbeitslosen zur Zahl der offenen Stellen auf berufsspezifischen Teilarbeitsmärkten (Stellenandrangszahl) hat nur einen geringen Effekt, die vergangene Arbeitsmarktbiographie übt nur bei den Männern einen statistisch signifikanten Effekt aus. Der Einfluß der Arbeitslosenunterstützung ist weder bei den Männern noch bei den Frauen statistisch signifikant.

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I wish to thank G. Flaig, G. Licht, J. Zweimüller, and an anonymous referee for helpful suggestions. Support from the Fonds zur Förderung der wissenschaftlichen Forschung is gratefully acknowledged. The usual caveats apply.     

An empirical analysis of constitutional review voting in the polish constitutional tribunal, 2003–2014

Different theories have been developed, mainly in the context of the United States, to explain judicial decision-making. In this respect, there is an important ongoing debate over whether judges are guided by the law or by personal ideology. The analysis of the decision-making in the Polish Constitutional Tribunal seems to support the existence of some party alignment. It is to say that judicial behavior is influenced by the ideology, either because judges’ preferences coincide with the interests of a specific party or because the judges are incentivized to show their loyalty to a party. Party alignment exists but subject to institutional influences. These results are in line with previous findings for other constitutional courts in Europe.     

An empirical analysis of disinvestment policy in India: does ideology matter?

Using panel data estimation for limited dependent variables and sample selection models, we identify political, industry specific, firm specific and macroeconomic variables which influenced the decision to divest central public enterprises in India between 1991–2010. We find that higher partial privatization is driven by a more right-winged coalition, lower ideological spread in the coalition and lower ideological difference between the center and the state in which the public enterprise is located. We also find that after the government selects larger, more experienced and more profitable firms, it divests the relatively less experienced and less profitable firms to a larger extent.     

Rogue aid? An empirical analysis of China's aid allocation

Foreign aid from China is often characterized as “rogue aid” that is guided by selfish interests alone. We collect data on Chinese project aid, food aid, medical staff and total aid money to developing countries, covering the 1956–2006 period, to empirically test to what extent self‐interests shape China's aid allocation. While political considerations shape China's allocation of aid, China does not pay substantially more attention to politics compared to Western donors. What is more, China's aid allocation seems to be widely independent of recipients' endowment with natural resources and institutional characteristics. Overall, denoting Chinese aid as “rogue aid” seems unjustified.     

The unequal distribution of unequal pay – An empirical analysis of the gender wage gap in Switzerland

In this paper we analyze the distribution of the gender wage gap. Using microdata for Switzerland we estimate conditional wage distribution functions and find that the total wage gap and its discrimination component are not constant over the range of wages. At low wages an overproportional part of the wage gap is due to discrimination. In a further analysis of specific individuals we examine the wage gap at different quantiles and propose a new measure to assess equal earnings opportunities. These additional results reveal that it is primarily low education that causes the large discrimination component at low wages. First version received: April 1999/Final version accepted: July 2000     

Does democracy foster financial development? An empirical analysis

This paper examines whether democracy promotes financial development. While cross-section results show a positive association between democracy and bank development, this relationship disappears in panel regressions. The data also reveals that democracy is not positively related to stock market development.     

What determines simultaneous asset bubbles? An empirical analysis

The recent global financial crisis demonstrated that the simultaneous collapse of asset bubbles in different countries is a major challenge for monetary policy. In order to evaluate determinants of these simultaneous asset bubbles, we detect rational asset bubbles in corporate equity and real estate markets worldwide using forward recursive right-sided ADF tests. Then we create dummy variables for simultaneous asset bubbles and analyse potential determinants using gravity models and spatial economics. Our empirical analysis suggests that simultaneous asset bubbles depend positively upon potential asset demand, capital account openness, monetary conditions, cultural similarities and negatively upon informational frictions and exchange rate flexibility. These findings imply that monetary policy can impede the probability of simultaneous asset bubbles by ensuring sound monetary conditions and choosing a flexible exchange regime.     

The economic relevance of sustainable agroforestry practices — An empirical analysis from Tanzania

This paper investigates the economic relevance of sustainable behavior of agroforestry practices for smallholders using the example of firewood exploitation in rural Tanzania. Three questions are addressed: (1) To what extent do households behave sustainably regarding firewood extraction from agroforestry? (2) Which factors determine the likelihood of households practicing sustainable agroforestry? (3) Are sustainably behaving households better off in terms of income compared to households practicing unsustainable agroforestry? The analysis is based on cross-sectional data of 314 households. A sustainability indicator shows that the share of sustainable households varies between 14 and 41% depending on the underlying wood growth rate. The results of the logistic regression indicate that property rights regarding the ownership of agricultural land and environmental awareness increase the likelihood of sustainable firewood extraction. Empirical evidence from the quantile regression reveals that poorest households generate higher income if they extract firewood unsustainably. The opposite is true for households of upper income percentiles. Thus, the poor are likely to increase environmental degradation to generate more income causing a ‘downward spiral’ of the poverty–environment trap resulting in income losses in the long run. Households with a per capita income of 524 TZS or more manage their tree stocks sustainably.     

Did fiscal institutions affect Wagner’s law in Italy during 1951–2009 period? An empirical analysis

In this article, we test Wagner’s assumption of the one-sided directional flow moving from economic growth to public spending in Italy for the 1951–2009 period. We pay particular attention to the impact of certain regime shifts related to changes in Italian budget regulations and procedures and the relevance of fiscal institutions to the fiscal performance equation, i.e. the public spending–national income nexus. The Error Correction Model is estimated to measure short-run dynamic effects and the long-run equilibrium between the two time series. The empirical evidence suggests that Wagner’s law is supported. In regard to policy implications, we find that public spending reacted less to positive changes in economic growth when the strengthening of the Ministry of Finance occurred in 1997 (Ciampi’s reform). Some sensitivity analyses confirm our empirical evidence.     

Policy tolerance of economic crime? An empirical analysis of the effect of counterfeiting on Italian trade

Some governments seem ambivalent towards economic crime because, on the one hand, there are adverse effects on competition and legal businesses; on the other hand, there are benefits through (shadow) employment and income in less-developed areas, as well as benefits through relations of political clientage. We focus on counterfeiting and its economic effects on trade in Italy during the economic crisis. Using a newly built regional dataset and a dynamic panel model, we find evidence of the dual impact of counterfeiting. The production (and exchange) of fake goods depresses the legal market that relies on intellectual property rights but supports shadow-economic activities for the benefit of illegal workers, criminal organisations, and political clientele. We show that the negative effects outweigh the positive effects.     

An experimental analysis of team production in networks

Experimental and empirical evidence highlights the role of networks on social outcomes. This paper tests the properties of exogenously fixed networks in team production. Subjects make the same decisions in a team work environment under four different organizational networks: the line, the circle, the star, and the complete network. In all the networks, links make information available to neighbors. This design allows us to analyze decisions across networks and a variety of subject types in a standard linear team production game. Contribution levels differ significantly across networks and the star is the most efficient incomplete network. Moreover, our results suggest that subjects act as conditional cooperators with respect to the information received from the network.     

An empirical investigation of interregional production relations and comparative advantage in US manufacturing, 1960–70

Hypothesized differences in mean changes in shares of European Community (EC) import markets over the period 1976-84 are tested for each of 36 less-developed countries. Means are calculated for cases in which MFN tariffs are re-established and for cases in which duty-free treatment is restored under the EC generalized system of preferences. They are compared with means for cases in which tariffs remained constant. We attempt to control for both product-specific and cyclical influences on imports. In contrast to some previous results, our findings suggest that denial (restoration) of preferential treatment, i.e. a tariff increase (decrease), has its expected negative (positive) effect.     

Why are Latin America's savings rates so low? An international comparative analysis

This paper presents a theoretical and empirical assessment of the determinants of savings rates, with special emphasis on Latin American savings rates. The study is based on international comparisons, using data from 36 countries for 1970–1992. A distinction is made between private and public savings. The later are endogenously determined by economic and political variables. Per capita income growth is the most important determinant of private and public savings; public savings are lower in countries with higher political instability; public savings crowd out private savings, but less than proportionately. Low Latin American savings are due to the magnitudes of their determinants, rather than structural differences.     

Does vertical separation reduce cost? An empirical analysis of the rail industry in European and East Asian OECD Countries

The main purpose of this study is to analyze structural separation policies, especially vertical (i.e. operation-infrastructure) and horizontal (i.e. passenger-freight service) separation. Using the total cost function of a railway organization, we evaluate whether or not vertical separation and/or horizontal separation can reduce costs. For this analysis, we selected 30 railway organizations in 23 European and East Asian OECD countries over 14?years, from 1994 to 2007. Our findings show that horizontal separation reduces railway cost. As for vertical separation, effects change according to the train density of a railway organization. With lower train density, vertical separation tends to reduce cost, while with higher train density vertical separation increases cost.     

An economic analysis of remittance of unskilled migration on skilled–unskilled wage inequality in labor host region

The present paper establishes a two-sector general equilibrium model and conduct the comparative static approach to investigate the impact exerted by an increase in the remittance rate of the unskilled migrants on the skilled–unskilled wage inequality in the labor host region. We find that the unskilled migrants increase their remittance rate to the labor outsourcing regions that will decrease the skilled–unskilled wage inequality in the labor host region.     

Commitment or discretion? An empirical investigation of monetary policy preferences in China

This paper offers a first attempt to estimate the policy preferences of China’s central bank by confronting a small-scale microfounded New Keynesian model in which monetary policy is described by commitment or discretion with the Chinese macroeconomic data over the period from 1992Q2 to 2017Q4. Bayesian model comparison reveals that the data favor discretionary monetary policy. Estimates of the loss function weights under both cases show that the leading policy goal is price stability, followed by output stability and then interest rate smoothing. Finally, through counterfactual analyses we assess how macroeconomic outcomes might improve, had the Chinese central bank been able to commit. These findings shed new light on the opaque Chinese monetary policy, and are robust to subsample analysis.     

Does growing wealth influence hedge funds’ development? An empirical analysis

Alternative investments, such as hedge funds, have, in last years, become an integral part of the investment portfolios of the wealthy. The article’s goal is also to answer the following research question: Does the global wealth of the world have impact on the global value of the hedge funds’ assets? We also try to forecast the value of the hedge funds’ assets for the next years 2015–2017. The results from this study would also be valuable to investors and other stakeholders, such as the regulators and the creditors of the hedge funds.