Evidence on the Demand for Mortgage Debt by Owner-Occupants

This paper explores the relationship between household mortgage debt burdens and housing consumption, periodic income, nonhousing wealth, the income tax position of the household, expected mobility, and other micro-level characteristics that proxy for household risk preferences and life cycle effects. We use 1985 and 1989 American Housing Survey data to estimate mortgage debt level equations simultaneous with house value equations, controlling for the contemporaneous nature of these two choices. We find that larger debt levels are positively associated with greater value residences and with the level of household income. Numerous household level demographic characteristics are also systematically related to mortgage demand. Of particular interest are our findings that the use of mortgage debt is affected significantly by the rate of tax savings on mortgage interest deductions and by the expected mobility of the household.     

RESIDENTIAL MOBILITY AND HOUSING TAX REFORMS: Some Empirical Evidence*

The efficiency and equity implications of mortgage interest deductibility have been studied by a number of authors using models of housing demand that do not account for barriers to residential mobility. This paper examines how one's assessment of that proposed tax reform may differ based on models that do allow for such barriers, using data from Toronto, Canada. We find that earlier works tend to overstate the deadweight loss attributable to the introduction of mortgage interest deductibility, particularly in the short run.     

Inflation, tax advantages to homeownership and the locational choices of households

The U.S. tax system encourages investment in owner-occupied housing by allowing consumers to deduct mortgage interest and to exclude net imputed rental income from taxable income. The primary purpose of this paper is to analyze how this tax treatment affects the housing and locational choices of urban households. It is shown that the effect of the tax treatment on these choices is sensitive to the preferences of consumers and the rate of anticipated inflation. To illustrate the likely size and direction of these effects, an example is constructed based upon econometric estimates of the parameters of the model.     

Property taxation and the demand for housing: An econometric analysis

There is disagreement among economists regarding the effect of a local increase in property taxation on the housing market. In defining the price of housing services studies of the demand for housing have treated the property tax exclusively as an excise tax on housing consumption. Two recent theoretical developments suggest this is a misrepresentation of the tax. One theory holds that the excise effects of property taxation may be shifted backward to the factors employed in the production of housing. The other theory concludes that the property tax is not an excise, but rather serves as an efficient price for local public services. To investigate these hypotheses, data from the Annual Housing Survey were employed to estimate a housing demand model which included the net effective property tax rate among the set of independent variables. In addition to revealing the property tax-housing demand relationship, the model provides more reliable estimates of income and price elasticities by eliminating specification errors found in previous studies. Results indicate that the property tax reduces the housing consumption of central city homeowners, but does not distort the suburban housing market.     

The spatial effects of a tax on housing and land

This paper analytically investigates the spatial consequences of a tax on housing and land. In general, a property tax is not spatially neutral; instead it disproportionately affects certain parts of the city. The property tax can therefore create distributional inequities and can distort the pattern of residential and industrial location. We derive conditions on locational preferences and housing production that determine which parts of a city will be disproportionately affected by a property tax. Empirical estimates suggest that central locations will be disproportionately affected by property taxes.     

房租波动与政府干预

房租的逐渐上涨及其变动原因成为近期关注的焦点之一。本文分析了城市房租波动的四个典型化特征,并讨论了影响城市房租波动的若干因素,其中包括房价变动及以收入和利率表征的基本面因素,也包括投机需求和政府限购政策及房产税等。最后,我们分析了政府干预房租的可能性和形式。     

旁租波动与政府干预

房租的逐渐上涨及其变动原因成为近期关注的焦点之一。本文分析了城市房租波动的四个典型化特征,并讨论了影响城市房租波动的若干因素,其中包括房价变动及以收入和利率表征的基本面因素,也包括投机需求和政府限购政策及房产税等。最后,我们分析了政府干预房租的可能性和形式。     

Targeting fertility and female participation through the income tax

We evaluate the effect of a 2003 reform in the Spanish income tax on fertility and the employment of mothers with small children. The reform introduced a tax credit for working mothers with children under the age of three, while also increasing child deductions for all households with children. Theoretically, given the interplay of these two components, the expected effect of the reform is ambiguous on both outcomes. We find that the combined reforms significantly increased both fertility (by almost 5%) and the employment rate of mothers with children under three (by 2%). These effects were more pronounced among less-educated women. In addition, to disentangle the impact of the two reform components, we use an earlier reform that increased child deductions in 1999. We find that the child deductions affect mothers' employment negatively, which implies that the 2003 tax credit would have increased employment even more (up to 5%) in the absence of the change in child deductions.     

Mobility and optimal tenure choice

In this paper, we offer a dynamic model of the optimal tenure behavior of an individual who faces the possibility of moving multiple times during his lifetime. We also investigate the lifetime effects of such factors as income tax, property tax, transaction costs, and mortgage rates on the household’s tenure choice. The agents in the model utilize a genetic algorithm, a probabilistic search approach, to determine their optimal lifetime tenure choice path. The agents are forward looking in that they anticipate such possible events as changes in jobs, marital status, household size, or dissatisfaction with current residence. Our results suggest several housing policy implications and explain some of the empirical findings in the literature.     

Federal deductibility and local property tax rates

Recent econometric work has suggested that federal deductibility of state and local taxes has raised the proportion of these taxes—especially property taxes—in local budgets. This paper lends additional support to these earlier findings by showing that one channel through which deductibility leads to higher local property tax revenues is by increasing the rate of local property taxation. Specifically, we find that if deductibility were eliminated, the mean property tax rate in our sample would fall by 0.00715 ($7.15 per $1000 of assessed property), or 21.1% of the mean tax rate.     

Negative equity and wages

We examine the relationship between housing equity and wage earnings using nine waves of the national American Housing Survey from 1985 to 2003. Employing a rich set of time and place controls, a synthetic mortgage instrumental variable strategy, and a first difference estimator we find that people underwater on their mortgage command a significantly lower wage than other homeowners. The finding survives a number of robustness checks for reverse causality and unobserved heterogeneity. We also explore other determinants of “house lock” including loss aversion, a low existing mortgage interest rate and property tax assessment caps, but do not find these factors mitigate the effect of negative equity on wages.     

Economic Outlook 1985- 1989: The London Business School with Gower Publishing: Forecast Release: THE AUTUMN STATEMENT: IF YOU CAN'T BEAT 'EM

In announcing significant increases in public spending in the Autumn Statement, the government has recognised that the scope for further interest rate reductions ahead of the election is virtually nil. It has therefore sought to boost demand, and its own popularity, by a fiscal relaxation. It so doing, it is prepared to risk a PSBR. (excluding privatization) of £27bn, exactly in line with the estimates which we made in June of Labour Party policy. In terms of macroeconomic policy, therefore, the gap between the two parties is virtually closed, while that between Mr. Major's government and that of Mrs. Thatcher is evident. Front this starting point, we argue that honouring Mr. Laniont's pledge on income tax could be at the expense of removing tax relief on mortgage interest payments and that a Labour government which still cherishes higher public spending may be forced into continuing the privatization programme. Under either Party there is a strong political case for tax increases, or for rescinding some of the planned increase in spending, early in the life of the next Parliament in order to bring the economic and political cycles back into synchronisation from which they were disturbed by Mr. Lawson's tax-cutting Budget of 1988.     

企业所得税对债务融资影响分析——基于我国上市公司的实证研究

本文主要研究了企业所得税对企业债务融资决策产生的影响。研究结论支持了修正的MM理论关于税收对企业的债务融资决策有影响的观点。研究表明:在我国上市公司的债务融资决策中,企业所得税是考虑的因素之一,主要表现在其他条件相同的情况下,实际税率较高的企业债务融资的利用程度较高,享受税盾利益的动机相对较强。同时在我国上市公司中,债务性税盾与非债务性税盾的替代作用并不明显。     

Interest on reserves,policy rules and quantitative easing

Hundred percent reserve transaction banking system is proposed with tax-free interest on demand deposits and interest bearing reserves. To eliminate shadow banking arrangements, a 100% tax on net interest income is proposed for limited liability businesses. All financing of businesses would be mutual as currently most is. With this arrangement there would be no bank runs associated giving rise to a financial crisis.     

A micro view on home equity withdrawal and its determinants: Evidence from Dutch households

For most households, home ownership is the largest wealth component that has become more accessible through innovation and deregulation in mortgage markets. This paper studies the factors driving home equity withdrawal (HEW) at the household level using Dutch survey data. In the Netherlands, house prices were growing fast and mortgage expenses are to a large extent tax deductible. Expectations and perceptions do seem to play an important role in HEW. Withdrawers tend to be more positive about house price developments and – although having lower income – less concerned about their future economic situation. HEW can have a significant impact on both households and the economy, with most of the equity released being reinvested in the housing sector and only a small share used to finance consumption expenditure.     

Property Tax and Housing Returns

This paper evaluates the effects of property tax on housing. While land tax and capital gains tax are widely used for curbing hoarding of land and speculation, its effectiveness is inconclusive. The imposition of a capital gains tax will impair the liquidity of property transaction, lower the rate of return on property investment, and reduce revenue from land sales which represents an important tax resource for the communities. This paper shows that a capital gains tax is capitalized into housing prices. Individuals tend to postpone the purchase of houses because of transaction taxes. Using an impulse response function, we show that a transaction tax has a dynamic negative impact on housing returns. While this paper focuses on Hong kong, for the purpose of comparison Singapore and Taiwan are also discussed.     

Flat tax reform: A quantitative exploration

This paper explores quantitatively the general equilibrium implications of a revenue neutral tax reform in which the current income and capital income tax structure in the U.S. is replaced by a flat tax, as proposed by Hall and Rabushka (1995), (The Flat Tax, 2nd ed. Hoover). The central aspects of such reform, the impact of tax reform on capital accumulation and labor supply, as well as its distributional consequences, are analyzed in a dynamic general equilibrium model. Main results are that, (i) the elimination of the actual taxation of capital income has an important and positive effect on capital accumulation; (ii) mean labor hours are relatively constant across tax systems, but aggregate labor in efficiency units increases; (iii) in all circumstances analyzed, the distributions of earnings, income and especially wealth become more concentrated.     

Local public goods and the demand for high-income municipalities

Affluent towns often deliver high-quality public services to their residents. I estimate the willingness to pay to live in a high-income suburb, above and beyond the demand of wealthy neighbors, by measuring changes in housing prices across city–suburban borders as the income disparity between the two municipalities changes over time. I find that a $10,000 increase in town-level median income is associated with a seven percent increase in housing values at the border. The estimated demand for high-income municipalities is primarily driven by school quality and lower property tax rates.     

An analysis of default risk in the Home Equity Conversion Mortgage (HECM) program

While reverse mortgages are intended as a tool to enable financial security for older homeowners, in 2014, nearly 12 percent of reverse mortgage borrowers in the federally insured Home Equity Conversion Mortgage (HECM) program were in default on their property taxes or homeowners insurance. Unlike the traditional mortgage market, there were no risk-based underwriting guidelines for HECMs through 2014. In response to the relatively high default rate, a variety of policy responses were implemented, including establishing underwriting guidelines. However, there is a lack of data and analysis to inform such criteria. Our analysis follows 30,000 seniors counseled for reverse mortgages between 2006 and 2011. The data includes comprehensive financial and credit report attributes, not typically available in analyses of reverse mortgage borrowers. Using a bivariate probit model that accounts for selection, we estimate the likelihood of tax and insurance default. Financial characteristics that increase default risk include the percentage of funds withdrawn in the first month of the loan, a lower credit score, higher property tax to income ratio, low or no unused revolving credit, and a history of being past due on mortgage payments or having a tax lien on the property. Our estimate of the elasticity of default with respect to credit scores is similar to that for closed-end home equity loans, but higher than that for HELOCs. We simulate the effects of alternative underwriting criteria and policy changes on the probability of take-up and default. Reductions in the default rate with a minimal effect on participation can be achieved by requiring that participants with low credit scores set aside some of their HECM funds for future property tax and insurance payments, a form of escrowing.     

Interest rates, income, and home improvement decisions

The demand for additional housing is modeled demonstrating that higher interest rates make home improvements more attractive relative to moving when homeowners hold fixed rate mortgages. Technological constraints on home improvements make improving less attractive relative to moving when incomes have risen. Empirical evidence using cross-sectional data is presented suggesting that the probability of making home improvements is positively related to increases in the current interest rate and negatively related to increases in income. An explanation is offered for the recent rise in home improvement expenditures in the face of slower economic growth and higher mortgage interest rates.