Martingale difference hypothesis and financial crisis: Empirical evidence from European emerging foreign exchange markets

This study investigates the effects of the recent global crisis on the relative efficiency of six CEE currency markets, using the generalized spectral test of Escanciano and Velasco (2006) in a rolling window approach. The empirical results show that the global crisis adversely affected the efficiency of most CEE currency markets, with the Turkish lira being hit the hardest, followed by the Russian ruble, Czech koruna, Romanian leu, Polish zloty and Hungarian forint. In the first stage of the crisis, covering the second half of 2008 and the first months of 2009, all foreign exchange markets experienced periods of inefficiency. In the second stage of the crisis, the Hungarian, Polish and Romanian foreign markets recovered market efficiency quickly, while Russia, Turkey and the Czech Republic continue to register a low degree of efficiency.     

Real exchange rate behaviour: evidence from black markets

The behaviour of real exchange rates (relative to the US dollar) is examined using monthly data obtained from the black markets for foreign exchange of eight Asian developing countries. The data span is 31 years. The black market real exchange rates do not show excess volatility during the recent float which is in sharp contrast to the results reported elsewhere. Unit root tests in heterogeneous panels and variance ratio tests confirm their stationarity. Thus, we find support for PPP but not for the ‘survivorship’ bias (Froot and Rogoff, 1995 ). There is little evidence of segmented trends. Issues raised by Rogoff ( 1996 )—of whether PPP would hold across countries with differing growth experience—and Lothian and Taylor ( 1996 )—of whether the degree of relative price volatility may bias results in favour of mean reverting real exchange rates—are addressed. Copyright © 2000 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

The stochastic volatility in mean model: empirical evidence from international stock markets

In this paper we present an exact maximum likelihood treatment for the estimation of a Stochastic Volatility in Mean (SVM) model based on Monte Carlo simulation methods. The SVM model incorporates the unobserved volatility as an explanatory variable in the mean equation. The same extension is developed elsewhere for Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedastic (ARCH) models, known as the ARCH in Mean (ARCH‐M) model. The estimation of ARCH models is relatively easy compared with that of the Stochastic Volatility (SV) model. However, efficient Monte Carlo simulation methods for SV models have been developed to overcome some of these problems. The details of modifications required for estimating the volatility‐in‐mean effect are presented in this paper together with a Monte Carlo study to investigate the finite sample properties of the SVM estimators. Taking these developments of estimation methods into account, we regard SV and SVM models as practical alternatives to their ARCH counterparts and therefore it is of interest to study and compare the two classes of volatility models. We present an empirical study of the intertemporal relationship between stock index returns and their volatility for the United Kingdom, the United States and Japan. This phenomenon has been discussed in the financial economic literature but has proved hard to find empirically. We provide evidence of a negative but weak relationship between returns and contemporaneous volatility which is indirect evidence of a positive relation between the expected components of the return and the volatility process. Copyright © 2002 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Open interest,volume, and volatility: evidence from Taiwan futures markets

This paper examines the relationships amongst volatility, total trading volume (TVOL) and total open interest (TOI) for three Taiwan stock index futures markets as well as the role of the latter two variables in the dynamics of GARCH modeling and forecasting. From both ex-post and ex-ante perspectives, we study this issue by using the VAR model and augmented GARCH-type models, respectively. For the GARCH-type models, we employ both symmetric and asymmetric models augmented with lagged logs in TOI and/or TVOL. We find that whether addition of these two variables helps the basic GARCH models predict future volatility depends upon the sample period examined for all three sets of futures. Nonetheless, the best three models for out-of-sample volatility forecasting in the MSE sense are generally the augmented models for all sub-intervals and all three futures contracts.     

Nonlinear causality testing with stepwise multivariate filtering: Evidence from stock and currency markets

We examine the spillovers of the US subprime crisis to Asian and European economies and in particular to what extent currency and stock markets have been affected by the crisis. Linear and nonlinear dependencies are detected after pairwise and system-wise causality analysis. A new stepwise multivariate filtering approach is implemented after controlling for conditional heteroskedasticity in the raw data and in VAR/VECM residuals using multivariate GARCH models. Significant nonlinear causal linkages persisted even after the application of GARCH-BEKK, CCC-GARCH and DCC-GARCH modelling. This indicates that volatility effects might partly induce nonlinear causality. Perhaps new short-term asset-pricing models could be developed to explain this stylized fact. These results might also have important implications for hedging, trading strategies and financial market regulation.     

Estimating the proportion of informed and speculative traders in financial markets: evidence from exchange rate

Journal of Economic Interaction and Coordination - We study the Glosten–Milgrom model and estimate the proportion of informed traders or speculators using bid–ask spread and price...     

Market efficiency and cointegration: Some evidence in Pacific-Basin black exchange markets

This paper investigates the efficiency of the black exchange markets in Indonesia, Malaysia, the Philippines, South Korea, Taiwan, and Thailand. The study applies unit root and cointegration tests to examine black exchange market efficiency of Pacific-Basin countries. The generating process of black exchange rates appears to be a random walk. This is consistent with Gupta (1981) and other foreign exchange rate unit root test studies. Johansen cointegration tests are performed for these black exchange markets together with Japan and Singapore. The results suggest that there is at least one unit root among the black market exchange rates. Hence, black exchange markets are not collectively efficient.     

Exposure to foreign exchange risk: A multi-currency extension

The Adler-Dumas simple regression approach to foreign exchange exposure measurement and hedging is extended to the case of exposure to many currencies.     

Multimaturity efficient market hypotheses: Sorting out rejections in international interest and exchange rate markets

This paper is concerned with econometric testing of multimaturity efficient market hypotheses for Canadian and Japanese foreign exchange and Eurocurrency deposit rates. A multimaturity efficient market hypothesis is developed and it is demonstrated that for the null hypothesis of multimarket efficiency to hold in the forward exhange market, rational expectations of the term structure of the matching Eurocurrency deposit rates must hold.     

Timing of price clustering and trader behavior in the foreign exchange market: evidence from Taiwan

In this paper, I use a unique proprietary dataset from the foreign exchange market to examine the existing hypotheses on price clustering. I find that market uncertainty plays an important role in price clustering. Moreover, since trading behavior changes under different market conditions, market timing also affects the likelihood of price clustering. The results support both the price resolution hypothesis (Ball et al. J Futures Mark 5:29–43, 1985) and the negotiation hypothesis (Harris Rev Financ Stud 4:389–415, 1991). Since the data covers the interbank foreign exchange market, which is the market for the professional bank dealers, the attraction hypothesis is less likely to be a plausible explanation for price clustering in the foreign exchange market.     

A nonparametric approach to market timing: evidence from Spanish mutual funds

The measuring of market timing abilities in investment portfolios is a relevant and widely analyzed question. Since the traditional parametric methodology can lead to biased results, we apply the nonparametric approach trying to overcome these biases and compare the results obtained by both methods. This comparison can help the readers to understand the role played by the assumptions behind each approach. We confirm the finding previously found in the literature about negative market timing abilities of Spanish equity fund managers. This finding suggests that neither the documented specification problems of the traditional models (heteroskedasticity, outliers and non-normality in financial data) nor the aggressiveness of some misinformed managers explain the poor timing abilities of managers.     

The impact of margins in futures markets: evidence from the gold and silver markets

This paper investigates the impact of margin requirements on the trading activity in the gold and silver futures markets. We extend prior research in at least two ways. First, we examine the role of time to contract-expiration in the relationship between margin levels and trading activity. We make the case that such an examination will reveal the nature of the costs that margins impose on futures traders. Second, we examine the impact margins have on the makeup of traders in futures markets. The evidence indicates that trading activity becomes more sensitive to margin changes as one gets closer to contract maturity, consistent with the notion that margins impose important transaction (rather than opportunity) costs on futures traders. Further to this evidence, we find that speculators and small traders, typically illiquid, are especially sensitive to margins. The data also indicate that margins are likely to be hiked following periods of increased volatility, and reduced following periods of relative stability, suggesting that margin alterations primarily serve as insurance to the futures exchanges.     

Post-euro EU and US interest rates and foreign exchange rates: Are they in harmony or in disarray?

This paper focuses on: (1) how a select set of financial and economic factors could set the path for interest rates and foreign exchange rates, and (2) whether the resultant realized interest and exchange rates would be in harmony or in disarray. Using post-euro data for the EU and the US, an array of monetary rules is examined. In particular, the paper investigates whether the original and the extended Taylor rules provide an explanation of the dynamics of the EU monetary system since the inception of the euro. Our findings indicate that the EU and the US monetary responses are not the same and that exchange rates play a significant role.     

Time-varying price shock transmission and volatility spillover in foreign exchange,bond, equity,and commodity markets: Evidence from the United States

We study the cross-market financial shocks transmission mechanism on the foreign exchange, equity, bond, and commodity markets in the United States using a time-varying structural vector autoregression model with stochastic volatility (TV-SVAR-SV). The price shocks are absorbed immediately in two or three days, suggesting that all markets are quite efficient. A slight mean reversion and an overshooting behavior are observed. Considering the volatility spillover effect, we highlight two properties of volatility shocks. First, the effects of the volatility shocks are released gradually. Reaching peak volatility spillover levels would require five to ten days. Second, the dynamics of volatility spillovers vary tremendously over time. Different types of markets respond to certain, but not all, extreme events. Our findings suggest the need to conduct investor monitoring of current events instead of using technical analysis based on historical data. Investors should also diversify their portfolios using assets that can respond to different and extreme shocks.     

Developing service climate in local vs. foreign firms in smaller Asian emerging markets: a resource-based and social exchange perspective

While research on drivers of service climate has focused on organisational resources and human resource practices such as training, employee autonomy and inter-departmental support, how these resources interrelate and influence service climate has not been examined, especially in the context of smaller Asian emerging market. Drawing on the resource-based view and its extension on dynamic capability, and social exchange theory, this qualitative study investigates how local and foreign firms in smaller Asian emerging markets create a favourable service climate. Our findings suggest three inter-related groups of factors that influence service climate, namely firm-based, market-based and culture-based drivers. Notably, foreign service firms perform better than their local counterparts in several firm-based drivers (e.g. service-oriented human resource management practices, work facilitation resources). Our study proposes a conceptual framework that integrates inter-relationships of organisational resource-based factors and explains how internal and external factors drive service climate in firms in smaller Asian emerging markets.     

The nexus between exchange rates and stock markets: evidence from the euro-dollar rate and composite European stock indices using rolling analysis

Both the goods market hypothesis and the portfolio balance theory, suggest a nexus between exchange rates and stock prices, albeit with a different direction of causality. This paper, using daily data, takes up the issue of the linkages between stock prices and exchange rates in the case of the euro-dollar rate and two composite European stock market indices: the FTSE Eurotop 300 and FTSE eTX All-Share Index. It addresses the causal ordering issue between the two markets using rolling unit root, cointegration and Granger causality tests. This methodological approach allows for the emergence of a clearer picture of the possible dynamic linkages between exchange rates and stock prices. The empirical results provide evidence of time-varying causality between the two markets.     

Land and residential property markets in a booming economy: New evidence from Beijing

Beijing's housing market has boomed over the last fifteen years. The city's population grew by 40.6% and per capita income (in constant RMB) by 273.9% from 1991 to 2005. Using two geocoded data sets, we present new evidence on the real estate price gradient, land price gradient, population densities, and building densities in Beijing's recent free housing market. The classic urban monocentric model's predictions are largely upheld in Beijing. We also document the importance of local public goods, such as access to public transit infrastructure, core high schools, clean air, and major universities, most of which have exogenous locations, as important determinants of real estate prices.     

Threshold cointegration in international exchange rates:A Bayesian approach

This paper considers Bayesian estimation of the threshold vector error correction (TVECM) model in moderate to large dimensions. Using the lagged cointegrating error as a threshold variable gives rise to additional difficulties that typically are solved by utilizing large sample approximations. By relying on Markov chain Monte Carlo methods, we are enabled to circumvent these issues and avoid computationally-prohibitive estimation strategies like the grid search. Due to the proliferation of parameters, we use novel global-local shrinkage priors in the spirit of Griffin and Brown (2010). We illustrate the merits of our approach in an application to five exchange rates vis-á-vis the US dollar by means of a forecasting comparison. Our findings indicate that adopting a non-linear modeling approach improves the predictive accuracy for most currencies relative to a set of simpler benchmark models and the random walk.     

Growth versus profit-maximization: A simultaneous-equations approach to testing the marris model

This paper adopts a new approach to the empirical testing of the Marris managerial theory of the firm and applies it to a cross-section sample of British companies in the early 1970s. It introduces three important innovations in the direct testing of the model: (i) a new exposition of the Marris theory if presented leading to a specification of the model as a simultaneous system; (ii) ownership control is measured as a continuous variable; (iii) the location of control is identified as an important dimension in the analysis. Preliminary estimates cast doubt on some important assumptions of the Marris theory.     

Rational expectations and the econometric modeling of markets subject to uncertainty: A Bayesian approach

Rational expectations theory is synthesized with Bayesian econometric theory to yield econometrically relevant models of competitive markets subject to uncertainty. The theory is used to derive both optimal estimators of the parameters of a Cobb-Douglas production function from time series data, and the equilibrium predictor of a future price. It is shown that a rational expectations price predictor is always an unbiased predictor, but that the converse is not true. It is also shown that the rational expectations equilibrium is a natural extension of the usual notion of a competitive equilibrium.