Exchange Rate Expectations,the Forward Exchange Rate Bias and Risk Premia in Target Zones

Expected rates of depreciation within the target zone for the exchange rates of four Nordic countries during 1979–1989 are estimated. Combining these with expected rates of devaluation estimated by Edin and Vredin (1993) we obtain time-series of the overall expected exchange rate change. We can thus construct time-series of foreign exchange risk premia and expectational errors, following which we decompose the forward exchange rate bias into portions attributable to expectational errors and/or risk premia. The conclusion is that time-varying risk premia appear to be the dominant cause of deviations from uncovered interest parity while the role of expectational errors is less clear.     

Foreign Exchange Risk,Equity Risk Factors and Economic Growth

This paper examines the information content of the equity risk factors that explain cross variation of stock returns and predicting future macroeconomic growth. For the first time we incorporate a new foreign exchange risk factor, providing important insights into the relationship between risk factors and the business cycle. The methodology involves the performance of a stepwise regression analysis of future macroeconomic growth against the lagged returns of five risk factors (market risk premium, size, value, momentum and foreign exchange risk). The results are validated with Granger causality tests and out-of-sample dynamic forecasting. They show that the foreign exchange risk factor contains strong, stable and statistically significant incremental information concerning future macroeconomic growth. Firms that are sensitive to the foreign exchange risk thrive when an economic upturn is anticipated and firms that are insensitive to the foreign exchange risk will have larger returns when an economic downturn is anticipated.     

加强外汇储备动态管理的对策研究

适度的外汇储备对于保证国家金融与经济安全、维持汇率稳定以及增强我国国际信誉有着重要作用。外汇储备并非越多越好,过多外汇储备会产生诸多问题,积累各种风险。在金融危机影响不断加深的情况下,有必要对我国外汇储备进行动态管理,尽快研究外汇储备的规模管理、结构管理、效率管理与政策管理,以实现外汇储备的安全、保值与增值目的。     

资本开放、外汇储备累积与货币政策独立性——中国数据的实证研究

在开放和发展条件下,基于凯恩斯动态货币需求调节方程和Cavoli模型,本文构建了一个包含外汇储备增加的国内市场利率决定模型。对中国2001~2008年月度数据的OLS和TSLS回归结果表明,国际市场利率和外汇储备增加对国内利率影响并不显著,而物价水平、产出和滞后一期的货币供给等变量系数符号不仅与理论预期一致,且检验显著。论文进一步采用了递归的SVAR模型来分析国际利率和外汇储备增加对国内利率的动态冲击效应,脉冲响应函数表明这种动态冲击效应同样十分微弱,说明了中央银行的货币冲销有效性和国内货币政策的独立性。     

中国外汇储备适度规模的实证分析

本文基于潜在对外贸易冲击和资本流动冲击两个视角,分别对两种潜在冲击下的最优外汇储备需求进行实证分析,这种综合考虑是一种新的尝试。尤其是对潜在资本流动冲击下的外汇储备需求本文提供了一定的理论基础,通过构造一个二期模型发现,影响最优外汇储备需求的因素为发生资本流动冲击的概率、资本流动冲击下的产出损失、经济体的短期外债数量以及代表性消费者的风险厌恶程度。最后,在本文框架下,计算结果显示2006年我国实际外汇储备已明显过剩。     

Demand for International Reserves and Exchange Rate Policy in Taiwan, 1979–1990*

Taiwan has experienced a huge trade surplus and a rapid growth in the money supply since the 1970s. This paper constructs and estimates a model that takes into account the demand for international reserves, price levels, and the joint determination of the exchange rate, the demand for money, and the balance of payments in Taiwan during the period 1979 to 1990. We focus our attention especially on the period from 1986 to 1990 when foreign reserves rapidly accumulated and the appreciation expectations prevailed. Our estimate of exchange rate reaction function accords with what is expected. The exchange rate appreciations had a favourable effect on the stabilization of price levels. In addition, the exchange rate and its expectations play important roles in the demand for money equation.     

供求冲击与人民币汇率的波动：基于DSGE两国模型的模拟分析

为分析人民币汇率的波动,本文应用当前新开放经济学主流的动态随机一般均衡两国模型的研究方法,通过引入垄断竞争的市场结构和粘性的价格调整方式,模拟了在以技术冲击为代表的供给冲击和以货币冲击为代表的需求冲击下汇率的波动,进而用来拟合人民币汇率的波动。结果表明相对于需求冲击,供给冲击对人民币汇率波动的拟合比较好,这表明“巴拉萨-萨缪尔森”效应是解释和预测人民币汇率波动的合理途径,也给我国的人民币汇率稳定政策提供了明确的导向。     

Optimal Monopolist Export Pricing with Dynamic Demand and Learning Curve Effects

This paper addresses incomplete exchange rate pass-through (ERPT) and pricing-to-market (PTM) by proposing an optimal control model of dynamic monopolistic pricing on a foreign market, which accounts for dynamic demand effects (such as diffusion or saturation) and learning curve effects. It is shown how the optimal dynamic export pricing results in partial or full ERPT in the long-term equilibrium. Moreover, transitional price dynamics are illustrated, which may explain dumping, i.e., temporary prices below unit costs, and (asymmetric) short-run overshooting dynamics of the optimal export price level as a reaction to exchange rate changes.     

Currency Substitution and the Stability of the Demand for Money in East Asia

Abstract

This paper models and tests the stability of the demand for money in five East Asian countries—Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, Singapore, and Thailand—in the context of an open economy. The Johansen multivariate cointegration vector error correction analysis against quarterly data covering the period 1985:1–2001:4 was used. It was found that a stationary long run cointegrating relationship exists between broad money, real income, domestic interest rates, foreign interest rates corrected for exchange rate depreciation, and the expected rate of depreciation of the exchange rate. The results show that US Treasury bills rates and the foreign exchange rate vis-à-vis the US dollar play a significant role in the East Asian countries money demand relationship. This suggests that currency substitution vis-à-vis the US dollar may be an important consideration in the design and implementation of monetary policy in the East Asian countries. Furthermore, the results show that the Asian currency crises impacted the money demand functions negatively in these countries. CUSUM and CUSUMSQ stability tests show no evidence of parameter instability of the money demand functions in three of the five countries throughout the period under investigation.     

战后中日关系中的民间交流:特征、作用与课题

在特殊的中日关系的社会历史文化背景下，“民间交流（外交）”作为非正式外交渠道在外交中具有特殊的双重意义。但是，民间交流或曰民间外交并不能完全代表中日外交关系的全部过程，它仅仅反映了中日关系发展的一个侧面。对中日关系正常化实现之前，“民间交流”与政府间外交的相互关系如何评价？如何看待“民间交流”在国家关系非正常 时期的地位与作用？两国人民的相互了解和认识的变化曲线，即“民间交流”的涨落轨迹是否与中日两国关系发展的脉络相一致？制约和影响“民间交流”的因素有哪些方面？等等，这都是非常值得探讨的重要问题。     

国际收支视角下人民币汇率形成机制改革探讨

我国国际收支持续双顺差和外汇储备大幅增长导致了人民币升值压力的形成。目前我国已实行以市场供求为基础的有管理的浮动汇率制,且已实现了人民币经常项目下的可兑换,因而外汇市场供求和国际收支状况对人民币汇率的影响逐步加大。本文基于外汇供求模型构建了我国国际收支影响人民币汇率形成的模型并进行了实证分析,结果显示出口、外资流入和外汇储备变动对汇率的影响比较显著。最后基于上述分析对如何完善人民币汇率形成机制提出了政策建议。     

An Investigation of the Effects of Prices and Exchange Rates on Trade Flows in East Asia

This paper investigates the dynamic response of imports and exports to changes in domestic prices, foreign prices and real effective exchange rates for Korea, the Philippines, Singapore and Thailand. A vector autoregressive model and cointegration analysis are used to study the long-run relationships and the short-run dynamics of these variables. The vector error-correction model indicates that in almost all cases, domestic and foreign prices have a larger impact on the trade flows than the real effective exchange rates. We cannot find any significant difference in the response time of import demand to shocks in prices and exchange rates; however, the response time for export supply varies among countries.     

我国外汇储备规模形成、影响与改进探讨

近年来,我国外汇储备规模稳步上升,储备量一直居高不下。巨额的外汇储备有利于维护国家经济安全,维持汇率稳定。增强国际清偿力,维护国家和企业的对外信用水平,其在给我国经济带来动力的同时,也存在着巨大的负面影响。因此,确定一个合理的外汇储备规模才能保证我国经济持续、稳定、健康的发展。文章针对我国外汇储备规模的现状、成因及其影响进行分析,探讨外汇储备规模合理化方法。     

关于中国外汇储备适度规模问题的研究

影响中国外汇储备的因素主要包括需求因素和供给因素两大方面,可通过建立模型来对中国外汇储备的适度规模做出测定,建议中国外汇储备合理规模的政策选择应当是稳定规模与加强管理并举。     

The demand for money in a small open economy: The case of Switzerland

The paper uses cointegration analysis to investigate the demand for money in Switzerland in the context of an open economy. It considers the general process of financial asset substitution and tests for the relevance of an exchange rate and a foreign interest rate variable in a conventional money demand equation. The results show that the variables entering into the demand for either monetary base or narrow money equation may not form a cointegrated system unless the exchange rate or foreign interest rate variable is included. This provides support to both the currency substitution and capital mobility hypotheses.     

有效需求波动、国有商业银行调整刚性与外资银行经营规模的选择

本文建立了一个有效需求水平不确定情况下的两阶段混合寡占博弈模型．前瞻性地讨论了国有商业银行的经营规模表现出调整刚性的情况下，外资银行经营规模的选择、其实际想要吸收的均衡存款量与选定经营规模之间所存在的关系．以及这种关系将会带来怎样的宏观经济与社会福利后果等问题。研究发现：（1）当实际中的有效需求水平越低时，外资银行经营规模的“产能”过剩；（2）当实际中的有效需求水平越高时，外资银行经营规模的“产能”不足。这一发现具有实施促进经济增长、有效控制居民收入差距政策方面的理论含义。     

Price policy and agricultural export performance in Jamaica

Jamaica experienced one of the longest uninterrupted periods of negative growth among LDCs in the 1970s. Agricultural exports led this decline with an unusually poor growth performance, exacerbating foreign exchange shortages. Commodity board pricing policies played a strong role in penalizing these exports. Further, board policies appear to be inefficient in either maximizing profits or foreign exchange. Implicit and unstated objectives of board policies are discussed. Supply functions show that farmers do react positively to price changes, contrary to board assumptions. Beneficiaries of this penalizing price policy are identified and an important implication for foreign aid policy is underscored.     

我国外汇储备规模、需求及其动态调整

文章分析了能较好解释我国外汇储备规模变动的主要影响变量;在此基础上利用动态调整模型确定我国的外汇储备需求方程,并依此来判断我国所持有的外汇储备是否充足,或是超量。结果表明：1996年以来,我国大部分年份的外汇储备供过于求,但外汇储备实际持有量与需求量之间的缺口有63％的部分在年度内得到了调整。     

Domestic multinationals, foreign affiliates, and labour demand elasticities

Using information on a panel of multinational firms operating in the United Kingdom from 1996 to 2005, we find that labour demand in domestic multinationals is less sensitive to labour cost changes than in foreign multinationals. This difference in the wage elasticity of labour demand persists even when we control for the skill intensity of firms or their level of intangible assets. This is in line with an interpretation that the provision of headquarter services in domestic multinational firms protects against strong fluctuations in labour demand. Overall, our results suggest that the wage elasticity of labour demand is about 40 % lower in domestic than in foreign multinationals.     

浅析中国证券市场多层次发展的逻辑思路

我国资本市场上只有上海和深圳两个交易所,上市公司类型、交易品种都很少,这远不能满足各类企业的融资需求。借鉴国外成熟的资本市场发展经验,结合我国的国情,笔者认为构建多层次的证券市场体系应包括全国性一元化的证券交易所、创业板市场、区域性证券交易市场和产权交易市场四部分。每个市场针对不同的投资者和资金需求者,安排不同的上市标准、运作模式和监管方式,这些子市场相互补充、相互竞争、相互衔接,共同构成完整统一的证券市场体系。