NON‐UNIFORM STRATEGIC TRADE POLICY AND AGGREGATE PROFIT CREATION EFFECT

This paper illustrates a new theoretical case for a strategic R&D policy in a two‐country third‐market international oligopoly model. Asymmetric treatment of domestic firms through a non‐uniform R&D policy can create aggregate profits without a foreign retaliation concern and further improve national welfare in addition to what a uniform policy accomplishes. This effect occurs when the conventional Brander–Spencer incentive is entirely absent as well as when the uniformly optimal R&D policy initially prevailed. The superiority of non‐uniform policy to uniform‐policy is not guaranteed, however, when the number of firms becomes endogenous.     

产业内贸易对中国技能 工资差距的影响

本文试图考察产业内贸易对技能工资差距的影响,理论分析表明：它随劳动力条件的变化而变化,在劳动力无限供给条件下它取决于技术劳动力的绝对需求,由于产业内贸易必能刺激技术劳动力的绝对需求,因此必然会扩大工资差距。但在劳动力条件转向有限供给后,它又取决于技术劳动力的相对需求,而产业内贸易未必使之扩大,特别是对两类劳动力替代弹性较大的部门来说,可能会使技术劳动力的相对需求下降,并使技能工资差距收缩。本文基于中国33个产业的5年面板数据验证了上述假说。     

INFANT INDUSTRY AND POLITICAL ECONOMY OF TRADE PROTECTION

Abstract.  This paper introduces infant-industry considerations in political economy determination of trade protection. I build a model where the government cares about both political contributions and national welfare. A potentially beneficial high-tech industry is not viable in the country whose initial human capital is low. In the political economy equilibrium, we find that the tariff schedule will be V-shaped: it decreases initially to maintain the viability of the industry but increases thereafter as the industry expands and gains political power. We use the model to explain both China's tariff offers in WTO negotiations and GATT/WTO rules regarding developing countries.     

中国制造业贸易模式变迁的工资差距效应

本文利用中国制造业27个细分行业的面板数据,采用固定效应不变系数的静态面板模型,考察了我国制造业从产业间贸易向产业内贸易的变迁对行业间工资差距的影响及其传导机制。研究结果表明：（1）在制造业贸易模式的变迁中,出口扩大了行业间工资差距,而进口缩小了行业间工资差距。（2）制造业贸易模式变迁主要通过价格机制扩大了行业间的工资差距,而技术机制和个体机制的影响则不显著。     

PRICE-COST MARGINS AND INDUSTRY STRUCTURE IN DEVELOPING COUNTRIES: THE CASE OF KOREA*

The structure-conduct-performance paradigm is tested using 4-digit SIC Korean industry data for 1981 and 1986. The study investigates whether the observed institutional differences between developed and developing countries affects the performance hypothesis. The results suggest that structure and conduct variables influence price-cost margins in much the same way as they do in developed countries. Nevertheless, the Korean government's credit rationing policies, by creating entry barriers, have the most important effects on industry performance.     

我国钢铁产业发展及其对外贸易的政策选择

在近几年中国钢铁工业迅速发展的背景下,首先对中国钢铁产业的发展及其对外贸易的现状进行分析和阐述.接着分析了中国钢铁产业发展及对外贸易存在的问题:铁矿石价格持续上涨,出口产品结构不合理,国与国之间的贸易摩擦加剧,跨国公司并购步伐加快.随后提出了大力发展钢铁循环经济,提升我国钢铁产业的综合竞争力,提高产业集中度,以及建立反倾销预警机制这一系列扩大高端钢铁产品出口的措施.     

15年来中日出入境旅游对双边贸易的影响

选取1992—2007年的有关统计数据,从两个断面4组指标的对应关系出发,分析了中日出入境旅游对双边贸易的促进作用,结果发现:随着中日出入境旅游客流量的增长,双边进出口贸易快速增长,出入境客流量与进出口贸易之间具有显著推拉关系;从中日两个断面,构建了出入境旅游对进口、出口及进出口贸易的6个推拉模型;由于中国对外开放的逐步扩大,日本占中国入境旅游比逐渐减小,中国对日贸易依存度也随之减小;1992年以来中国占日本入境旅游比和日本对华贸易依存度逐渐上升,且增长趋势与波动周期具有较强的时间同步性。     

SOME REFLECTIONS ON THE TERMS OF TRADE

In my article I have taken up different expressions for the terms of trade in foreign trade, and especially I have been interested in a breakdown of total gain into two parts, namely the part due to the terms-of-trade effects and the part due to the price level effects. I have also taken up the inter-sectoral gain from terms of trade and the relation to the terms of trade in foreign trade. Besides the usual index for terms of trade-the ratio between output prices and input prices-I have also introduced another index for terms of trade corresponding to the relation between the output price index and an index consisting of a weighted average of input prices and prices for final demand. Finally I have tried to give some emperical findings which should throw light on the development of the Danish terms of trade for the period 1949 to 1964.     

技术性贸易措施下出口企业被动创新效应

技术性贸易措施虽然对出口国有显著负面影响,但同时也会迫使出口企业投资研发,产生被动创新效应。当创新的预期收益大于创新研发的一次性投入时,出口企业就会以研发投资的创新来应对国外技术性贸易措施。进口国技术性贸易措施越不苛刻,同时出口企业初始产品质量越好,出口企业定价能力越强,出口企业越倾向于选择被动性创新投资策略。     

对中国流通产业安全的几点认识

中国加入WTO已经10年,外资商业进入中国市场的步伐持续加快,大大压缩了中国民族商业的发展空间,对中国流通产业安全构成潜在威胁。然而,在一些传统的以及当前流行的观点中,这种潜在威胁并没有引起足够的重视。本文就中国流通产业安全提出几点新的认识,为未来的经验分析和对策研究提供启示。     

后金融危机时期我国工农业乘数效应研究*

本文基于两部门经济增长模型构建工农业内生增长模型,考虑了工业与农业生产率差异和工农业溢出效应,分析在有限的资源条件下工业部门资源配置优势以及全社会经济增长影响因素。研究发现：工业部门因其生产率优势、溢出效应而具有资源配置优势,但农业发展滞后也会限制工业资源配置优势扩大;同时,全社会经济增长受工业增长、工业对农业溢出效应及农业增长共同影响。因此,工农业既存在资源竞争,又存在协调发展需要。     

加工贸易核算方法及其对中国国际收支的影响

加工贸易是国际贸易的一种特殊形式。在中国国际贸易中,加工贸易占有一个比较显著的比重。本文从国际收支核算入手,结合国际研究进展,系统讨论了加工贸易的概念定义和不同核算方法,并依据所给出的思路和方法对中国加工贸易进行了试算,得到的结果体现了围绕加工贸易调整的多元化认识。     

SCIENCE AND INDUSTRY: TRACING THE FLOW OF BASIC RESEARCH THROUGH MANUFACTURING AND TRADE

This paper describes flows of basic research through the US economy during the late 20th century. In addition, the paper studies the effect of the flows on scientific papers in industries and fields. This article differs from others in its use of measures of science rather than technology. Together, its results present a picture of the structure of basic research flows in a modern, science-intensive economy. Basic research flows are large within petrochemicals and drugs, and within software and communications. Flows of chemistry, physics, and engineering are common throughout all industries – biology and medicine are almost confined to petrochemicals and drugs; and computer science is nearly as restricted to software and communications. In general, basic research flows are more concentrated within scientific fields than within industries. Our findings concerning the production of scientific papers indicate that the effect of a 1% change in academic R&D spillovers significantly exceeds that of industrial spillovers. In addition, within-field effects exceed effects between-fields, while within- and between-industry effects are roughly equal. It follows that scientific fields limit basic research flows more than industries do, perhaps because large firms implicitly span a range of industries.     

吉林省外贸地域结构探析

一般同际贸易理论对外贸结构的研究侧重于商品结构、外贸结构阶段研究。国际贸易地理学对外贸结构则侧重于地域空间结构的特征、规律及其关联的研究。本文仅对吉林省外贸地域结构现状及其调整战略与对策进行探讨。认为吉林省对外贸易应实施市场多元化战略,巩固传统市场,开拓新兴市场,稳定发展辅助市场。     

美国在华直接投资对中美贸易不平衡的影响研究

20世纪90年代以来,美国在华直接投资额呈迅速上升趋势,中美贸易规模也不断扩大,与此同时,两国的贸易差额也逐年增大,双边贸易的不平衡加剧了贸易摩擦。本文首先从美国在华投资对中美贸易差额所产生的各种效应阐述了中美贸易失衡的原因,然后通过实证分析得出美国在华直接投资与中美贸易顺差之间存在长期协整关系的结论,即美国在华直接投资是导致中美贸易顺差的决定性因素。最后提出缓解中美贸易不平衡的相关对策建议。