解析美联储降息的背景、原因和影响

基于经济指标预期值整体恶化的微妙背景,美联储2007年9月18日降息50个基点,这不仅本身构成了对经济走向变化的"官方确认",而且是美国经济周期转向中货币政策制订者的必然选择,其最根本的原因在于"次级债风波"对实体经济的负面作用已经超出预期水平.美联储降息将对美国实体经济产生滞后的扩张性影响,加剧美元贬值,同时可能导致国际货币体系稳定受到负面影响.尽管受到美联储降息影响,中国出口仍将维持高速增长,货币政策将进一步趋紧,同时将经受全球流动性过剩的更大考验.     

美联储大幅降息国际货币体系稳定受影响

基于经济指标预期值整体恶化的背景,美联储9月18日降息50个基点本身不仅构成了对经济走向变化的"官方确认",而且是美国经济周期转向中货币政策制订者的必然选择,其最根本的原因在于"次级债风波"对实体经济的负面作用已经超出预期水平。美联储降息将对美国实体经济产生滞后的扩张性影响,加剧美元贬值,同时可能导致国际货币体系稳定受到负面影响。     

通胀压力仍在 货币注重微调

为了抑制通胀预期,货币政策将更加谨慎。考虑实体经济困境,货币政策又不得不有所放松,我们预计央行将下调一次存款准备金率,但降息可能性较小,公开市场操作和差别存款准备金将是二季度的重要政策工具。而信贷规模的适当宽松也是大概率事件。     

美联储历次降息的背景、影响及启示

<正>历史经验表明,美联储基于不同原因降息的影响存在显著差异,预防式降息对金融市场的冲击有限,纾困式降息则难以避免金融市场大幅震荡。2023年12月美联储议息会议声明暗示,美国本轮货币政策历史性的紧缩周期可能已经结束。市场普遍预期美联储将于2024年开始降息,但关于降息的条件与影响存在明显的争论。     

美降息助推中国通胀

9月18日,美联储因次级债券危机打破连续一年多维持利率不变的格局而降息50个基点,同时市场预期美联储还有降息动机。从抑制通胀到出手“救市”,美联储货币政策目标发生了微妙变化。受金融全球化的影响,各国的金融机构和中央银行势必要与美联储一起“陪演”,原本利率政策转为应对通胀的欧洲央行、英国央行在10月4日的例行会议上也只好继续观望维持利率不变,这有可能导致全球通胀压力会大大失控。美联储降息对中国的影响更直接,由于中国现面临通胀压力和流动性过剩正进入一个加息周期,美联储降息不仅加剧了中国的通胀预期,而且也可能冲销央行反通胀的货币政策效果,助推中国通胀走向深入。     

美国货币政策转向及其背后的逻辑

2007年爆发的金融危机对美国金融系统与实体经济造成了严重冲击.为摆脱危机及刺激增长与就业,美国货币政策发生了五大转向:一是货币政策工具由“常规”转向“非常规”;二是货币政策内容由“有限”转向“无限”;三是货币政策职能由“支持经济”转向“服务财政”;四是货币政策操作领域由“金融市场”转向“实体经济”;五是货币政策效果由“降低风险”转向“放大风险”.美国货币政策发生转向有其背后的深层逻辑,即:美元霸权体系的存在-美国政府积累巨大债务-美联储对传统规则的突破-通过实施量化宽松将债务货币化.     

2012年主要经济体经济形势和货币政策走势分析

该文分析展望了2012年主要经济体经济形势和货币政策走势,指出主要发达国家将继续实施“超紧”财政政策与“极松”货币政策组合;美国经济复苏进程加快,其货币政策将维持宽松;欧央行可能于上半年再度降息;英国经济不会陷人二次衰退,其量化宽松政策将止步于QE3;国际资本流动将呈回升趋势;外汇市场延续“美元震荡走高、欧元小幅走弱”格局。     

洚息了该如何理财

6月8日央行宣布降息，标志着自2010年以来的加息周期已经结束，货币政策再一次进入降息周期，同时市场普遍预期下半年央行可能还有一到两次降息举措，这意味着新的降息通道即将打开。     

我国股票市场弱“晴雨表”功效的解释:IS—LM模型分析

和美国股票市场相比较 ,我国股票市场呈现出弱“晴雨表”功效。这一方面是由于在现行的稳健性的货币政策下 ,我国股票市场所形成的货币需求增量可以影响实体经济中的货币存量 ,从而影响宏观经济的运行 ,使得股票市场反映实体经济整体运行态势的功能弱化。另一方面 ,由于就业、住房、教育、医疗等改革影响人们的预期 ,同时由于当前缺乏新的经济增长点 ,导致财富效应、Q效应难以发挥效应 ,通过股票市场来推动实体经济增长的作用弱化。本文运用 IS-LM模型对此进行了分析 ,并且对如何更好地促进股票市场发展和实体经济的增长作了一些探讨。     

2022年中国货币政策展望

2021年12月以来,我国货币政策稳中趋松越发明朗.本文主要分四个层次对2022年我国货币政策的空间进行展望:一是货币政策宽松的必要性之来源;二是货币政策宽松的工具如何使用,并对降准、降息的空间进行定量评估;三是货币政策宽松的空间如何打开;四是货币政策宽松基调之下,人民币汇率将如何助力调节货币政策的内外平衡.结论是:2022年我国货币政策兼具宽松的必要性和可行性;存款准备金率仍有1～1.5个百分点的下调空间,通过推进利率市场化改革和降准,即可带动实体经济付息压力下降;而若经济下行压力较大,需以类似2016年的更大力度支持实体经济,则还需降息10～15个基点.因此,货币政策需要"多措并举"支持实体经济,并避免我国宏观杠杆率再度过快攀升.     

Bayesian Premium Rating with Latent Structure

We propose a fully Bayesian approach to non-life risk premium rating, based on hierarchical models with latent variables for both claim frequency and claim size. Inference is based on the joint posterior distribution and is performed by Markov Chain Monte Carlo. Rather than plug-in point estimates of all unknown parameters, we take into account all sources of uncertainty simultaneously when the model is used to predict claims and estimate risk premiums. Several models are fitted to both a simulated dataset and a small portfolio regarding theft from cars. We show that interaction among latent variables can improve predictions significantly. We also investigate when interaction is not necessary. We compare our results with those obtained under a standard generalized linear model and show through numerical simulation that geographically located and spatially interacting latent variables can successfully compensate for missing covariates. However, when applied to the real portfolio data, the proposed models are not better than standard models due to the lack of spatial structure in the data.     

The development of the group accounts disclosure system in Japan

The Japanese disclosure system of consolidated statements was introduced in 1977 and extensively revised in 1997. The role of the bureaucracy has been significant in these developments and seems to be part of Japan's closed culture. However, other explanations could also be applied. In particular, although Japanese firms opposed such disclosures on the basis of preparation costs, the Japanese government had to modernize the disclosure system, including consolidation, in order to develop the securities market regardless of an individual company's interests.     

Moments of Compound Mixed Poisson Distributions

Recursive formulae are derived for the evaluation of the moments and the descending factorial moments about a point n of mixed Poisson and compound mixed Poisson distributions, in the case where the derivative of the logarithm of the mixing density can be written as a ratio of polynomials. As byproduct, we also obtain recursive formulae for the evaluation of the moments about the origin, central moments, descending and ascending factorial moments of these distributions. Examples are also presented for a number of mixing densities.     

The designing of corporate accounting law in Japan after the Second World War

After the Second World War, during the neutralization of the controlled economy of wartime Japan, a design for a Corporate Accounting Law was elaborated by the Investigation Committee on the Business Accounting System. The Investigation Committee tried to establish not only new business accounting standards but also a central and independent administrative organ of corporate accounting regulation on the basis of the Corporate Accounting Law. The Corporate Accounting Law was expected to lay the legal foundation of the new corporate accounting regulation regime in Japan. Nevertheless, even though the original design of the fundamental accounting law was never realized, it should be considered the starting point for our understanding of external accounting history in post-war Japan.     

The deliberation around accounting techniques: accounting for depreciation and foreign exchange in an Indian jute company, 1870-1900

This paper examines the way two accounting techniques, namely depreciation and foreign exchange, were deliberated on, between 1870 and 1900, in an Indian jute company whose shareholders resided in the UK. The arena for these deliberations was the conflictual relationship between controlling and non-controlling shareholders as to how best to account for depreciation and foreign exchange especially when the particular accountings affected distributional issues such as the dividend decision. The purpose of this paper is to analyse and explain the processes by which a company's accounting practices emerge and develop as a contest between different interests. Accounting framed the parameters of the deliberations and provided the language of power and dissent. The paper uses a rich archive that includes narrative and accounting material.     

Disclosure of government financial information and the cost of local government’s debt financing——Empirical evidence from provincial investment bonds for urban construction

China’s slowing economic growth and rapid urbanization have made local government debt financing a significant issue.This study uses a sample of China’s provinc...     

Pricing Dynamic Insurance Risks Using the Principle of Equivalent Utility

We introduce an expected utility approach to price insurance risks in a dynamic financial market setting. The valuation method is based on comparing the maximal expected utility functions with and without incorporating the insurance product, as in the classical principle of equivalent utility. The pricing mechanism relies heavily on risk preferences and yields two reservation prices - one each for the underwriter and buyer of the contract. The framework is rather general and applies to a number of applications that we extensively analyze.     

Guidelines for Manuscripts Submitted to The China Journal of Accounting Research

正The China Journal of Accounting Research"CJAR"(ISSN 1755-3091)publishes quarterly.It contains peer-reviewed articles and commentaries on accounting,auditing and corporate governance issues that relate to the greater China region.We welcome the submission of both theoretical and empirical research papers pertinent to researchers,regulators and practitioners.Authors should note:1 Submissions must be original     

International harmonization of Japanese accounting standards

Historically, Japanese accounting standards have been quite distinct from International Accounting Standards (IASs) which have been perceived as being modelled on British-American accounting standards. However, in the 1990s, after the publication of E32 in 1989 and the IASC-IOSCO Agreement in 1995, the Business Accounting Deliberation Committee (BADC), the standards-setting body in Japan, has pursued a policy of harmonization with IASs. Accounting standards relating to consolidated financial statements of companies that make cross-border offerings of securities or operate worldwide are being revised drastically. This paper focuses on the development of international accounting harmonization and its impact on Japan.