Domestic market integration and the law of one price in Brazil

This article presents the first assessment of domestic market integration in Brazil using the law of one price. The law of one price is tested using two panel unit root methodologies and a unique data set comprising price indices for 51 products across 11 metro-areas. We find that the law holds for most tradable products and, not surprisingly, nontradable products are found to be less likely to satisfy the law of one price. While these findings are consistent with evidence found for other countries, price convergence occurs very slowly in Brazil, suggesting relatively limited domestic market integration.     

Black market exchange rates in India: an empirical analysis

In this paper, we explore the determinants of black market (BM) exchange rates in India using annual data from 1955–1994 and integration and cointegration analysis. Two important factors, namely the import capacity of official foreign exchange reserves and restrictions on international trade, have largely been ignored as determinants of BM rates. We stress the importance of these two factors and incorporate them, with others more familiar in the literature, in our theoretical and empirical model for BM rates in India. Our empirical findings show that a low level of official foreign exchange reserves negatively and a high level of trade restrictions positively affect BM rates. We show that the flexible Bretton Woods exchange rate policies for India in 1973 have a negative impact on BM rates. The results also reveal that interest rate policies positively affect BM rates. Thus, our empirical model lends support to the trade and monetary approaches to BM rates and hence, trade restrictions with excess money supply should be removed to eliminate the BMs for forex in India. First Version Received: September 98/Final Version Received: January 2000     

Testing the theory of PPP for emerging market economies that practice flexible exchange rate regimes

This study aims to test the long-run validity of purchasing power parity by using Fourier quantile unit root and Fourier cointegration analyses for 12 emerging market economies that practice a flexible exchange rate regime. With the Fourier approach, structural breaks are modelled as a gradual and smooth process. Fourier quantile unit root test results show that real exchange rate series are stationary for Colombia, India, Philippines, Poland, South Africa, and Turkey. On the other hand, Fourier cointegration test results reveal that purchasing power parity is valid for Brazil, Colombia, India, Mexico, South Africa, Thailand, and Turkey.     

Excess comovements between the euro/US dollar and pound sterling/US dollar exchange rates

ABSTRACT

The aim of this article is to discuss excess comovements of the euro/US dollar and pound sterling/US dollar exchange rates, i.e. we look for comovements of exchange rates which are stronger than implied by the fundamentals. The results of the empirical analysis provide evidence that excess comovements exist for the two exchange rates. A long-run analysis of correlations can verify that a link exists between the correlation dynamics of exchange rates, relative inflation rates, long-term interest rates, economic sentiments and money supply. We find that common movements of money supply, prices and economic sentiments each play a major role in comovements of the exchange rates. From the investigation of the two exchange rates, we conclude that macroeconomic fundamentals can account for the comovement but that common non-fundamental factors also have major significance for the exchange rates.     

Testing for substitutability in the mackerel market: a new method using fractional cointegration

This article seeks to extend knowledge of the mackerel (Scomber scombrus) market in the Basque Country (a region in Spain) by analysing possible relationships between this and other species with similar characteristics such as the sardine (Sardina pilchardus), the horse mackerel (Trachurus trachurus) and the Atlantic chub mackerel (Scomber colias), all of them landed at the ports of the Basque Country. Specifically, the goal is to learn whether these other species can be considered as mackerel substitutes. To that end, a fractional cointegration analysis of different series of historical prices is performed using a novel method never before used in studies of this type. The results indicate that mackerel have no substitutes, and thus form a mono-species regional market. This implies, among other things, that their price is not influenced by the prices of other species, and this should be taken into account by managers when designing management measures and policies to improve the sustainability of the fishing of this species.     

Long-run matching relationship in the Japanese labor market

This paper investigates the long-run relationship among new hiring, unemployment (job seekers), and unfilled vacancies in Japan, using an annual panel data on 47 prefectures for 1972-1999. We find that these three variables are I(1) processes, and are cointegrated in our panel data. Further, we estimate the panel cointegration equation derived from a Cobb-Douglas matching function by the heterogeneous fully modified OLS and heterogeneous dynamic OLS. The estimation results reveal that conventional within estimates could have non-negligible biases.First version received: November 2002/Final version received: October 2003All correspondence to Shigeki Kano. The authors are grateful to the associate editor and two anonymous referees of this journal for helpful comments. Doctor Stephen J. Turnbull (University of Tsukuba) is also acknowledged for correcting English errors in this paper. Remaining errors are due to the authors. The data set and GAUSS programming code used in this paperare available upon request.     

The evolution of stock market efficiency in the US: a non-Bayesian time-varying model approach

A non-Bayesian time-varying model is developed by introducing the concept of the degree of market efficiency that varies over time. This model may be seen as a reflection of the idea that continuous technological progress alters the trading environment over time. With new methodologies and a new measure of the degree of market efficiency, we examine whether the US stock market evolves over time. In particular, a time-varying autoregressive (TV-AR) model is employed. Our main findings are: (i) the US stock market has evolved over time and the degree of market efficiency has cyclical fluctuations with a considerably long periodicity, from 30 to 40 years; and (ii) the US stock market has been efficient with the exception of four times in our sample period: during the long recession of 1873–1879; the recession of 1902–1904; the New Deal era; and the recession of 1957–1958 and soon after it. It is then shown that our results are partly consistent with the view of behavioural finance.     

Rice market integration in the Mekong River Delta1

In the last decades Vietnam has become a major supplier in the world's rice market. This position is the result of the policy reforms that have been implemented in the agricultural sector. This paper assesses the impact of the liberalization policies and focuses on the spatial price differences in the domestic rice market. The results show that price patterns correlate strongly in the Mekong River Delta. Even prices in other regions are integrated with price patterns in the South. Interestingly, private traders in the Mekong Delta are only indirectly responsible for the latter result. They satisfy local demand and deal with state‐owned enterprises (SOEs). In the framework of the national food security policy, the state‐owned food companies ‘subsidize’ transactions between the South and the North. Moreover, the state‐owned food companies still dominate export transactions. The latter issues constitute two major queries for policy makers involved in the liberalization of the rice market, as further policy measures should not jeopardize the interests of domestic rice consumers.     

股票市场发展与经济增长——从流动性的视角

基于前人的重要结论,从流动性的角度,将流动性分为成交量、换手率两个方面。通过向量自回归（VAR）建立模型进行进一步的研究,得出股票交易成交量与经济增长的长期均衡关系,并通过VECM模型与Granger因果关系检验对所建立的模型进行进一步验证。研究结果显示,股票市场的流动性与经济增长存在显著的关系。进一步研究换手率对股票流动性的影响可得出的结论是,股票市场的流动性与经济增长存在长期的均衡关系,并且流动性中,成交额与经济增长存在正向关系,而换手率与经济增长存在负向关系,两者都是通过影响股票市场的总市值来进一步影响经济增长的。     

Testing the effect of technical analysis on market quality and order book dynamics

We find empirical support for the theoretical finding in agent-based models of limit order book markets that the effect of technical trading on market quality is not positive. When signals occur, technical traders lower liquidity as proxied by the relative spread, the effective spread, the realized spread, the dispersion and the slope in the order book. Technical trading is also found to be accompanied by rising volatility. There is overall strong empirical support against the hypothesis that technical trading has no effect on order book dynamics.     

The core in an oligopoly market with indivisibility

Summary. This paper studies the core in an oligopoly market with indivisibility. It provides necessary and sufficient conditions for core existence in a general m-buyer n-seller market with indivisibility. When costs are dominated by opportunity costs (i.e., a firm's variable costs are sufficiently small), the core condition can be characterized by the primitive market parameters. In a 3-2 market with opportunity cost, the core is non-empty if and only if the larger seller's opportunity cost is either sufficiently large or sufficiently small. Received: June 9, 1999; revised version: October 22, 1999     

颠覆性双元创新对数字产业技术融合的影响研究 --市场与技术的联动效应

颠覆性创新是数字产业突破在位企业封锁,掌握技术主导权的核心动力。多维度的颠覆性创新政策能否真正促进数字产业技术融合度的提升,行业中其他企业又扮演何种角色？本文围绕技术与市场两个维度,基于数字产业中具有代表性智能制造业的研究数据,运用双元创新理论,探讨探索与利用两种颠覆性技术创新政策影响数字产业技术融合的异同,以及技术距离在其中的作用机制;并比较颠覆性技术双元和颠覆性市场双元之间不同的联动效应。采用逐步回归进行实证检验,研究发现：(1)颠覆性技术探索对技术融合度有显著的正向影响,且技术距离正向调节颠覆性技术探索与技术融合度间关系;(2)颠覆性技术利用与技术融合度呈倒U型关系,且技术距离正向调节颠覆性技术利用与技术融合度间关系;(3)不同的颠覆性技术创新和颠覆性市场创新联动关系对企业技术融合有着截然不同的影响,具体来说,在企业选定颠覆性技术探索战略的情境下,颠覆性市场双元对数字产业技术融合度不会产生明显的促进或抑制作用;在企业选定颠覆性技术利用战略的情境下,颠覆性市场探索对数字产业技术融合度表现出更为明显的促进作用。     

中国生猪市场整合程度研究

本文利用2000—2008年全国30个省、自治区和直辖市的生猪批发价格月度数据,采用共聚合检验以及δ收敛检验,评价了中国相邻省份的生猪市场整合程度以及全国整体市场一体化程度的演变趋势。得出的主要结论如下:中国生猪市场实现了良好的长期整合和短期整合,市场能够实现自身的价格调整;随着时间推移,全国生猪市场一体化程度逐渐加强,政府不需要对生猪价格进行干预。     

Nonlinear integration of London and Amsterdam stock markets in the 1700s

The financial markets in London and Amsterdam were some of the first to develop. Using threshold autoregressive models, we use data on two commonly traded stocks in these cities to show that the joint behaviour of the prices is consistent with the theory of arbitrage in the presence of transportation costs. The results suggest that prices converged more quickly as the price difference between the two markets increased. We also show that the threshold estimates are consistent between assets and across time. These results provide some of the earliest evidence of nonlinear mean reversion in asset prices in geographically separate financial markets.     

Testing for rational bubbles in the US housing market

The presence of a bubble in the US housing market prior to the 2007 subprime mortgage financial crisis is investigated. This is done by looking into the relationship between house prices and rental prices, known as the price–rent ratio, which is an important measure of a potential deviation between house prices and its fundamental value. Additionally, the interest rate is taken into account since it is an important factor in determining demand for housing mortgages and thereby influencing house prices, and explosive behavior of house prices is considered. These relationships are investigated through a theoretical and econometrical framework. The empirical evidence suggests that there was a bubble in the housing market prior to the financial crisis, even when controlling for the decreasing interest rate and the fundamental information given by the rental price in the period. Explosiveness was the main source of the price increase, such that a bubble was present in the housing market after correcting for other fundamental factors. The econometric procedures used in the analysis may therefore be relevant for monitoring the housing market.     

Exploring the interaction between stock price index and exchange rates: an asymmetric threshold approach

This article examines the impact of stock market news on the foreign exchange markets of USA, Canada and UK, employing an innovative extension of the asymmetric threshold model of Apergis and Miller (2006). Under this framework we can disentangle the reaction of foreign exchange market to bad or good news and small or large news of stock returns. Our comprehensive daily data-set spans the period from January 1990 to June 2014. Using a cointegration and error correction model, we document the existence of a causal relationship between stock market and foreign exchange markets. Most interestingly, our results derived from the asymmetric threshold model confirm that the relationship between stock and foreign exchange markets is sensitive to short-term good or bad news and short-term small or large news. Our findings entail significant implications for policymakers, governments, risk managers and international investors.     

Product market deregulation and the US employment miracle

We consider the dynamic relationship between product market entry regulation and equilibrium unemployment. The main theoretical contribution is combining a job matching model with monopolistic competition in the goods market and individual bargaining. We calibrate the model to US data and perform a policy experiment to assess whether the decrease in trend unemployment during the 1980s and 1990s could be directly attributed to product market deregulation. Under our baseline calibration, our results suggest that a decrease of less than two-tenths of a percentage point of unemployment rates can be attributed to product market deregulation, a surprisingly small amount.     

Cointegration and common trends on the West German labour market

In this paper we analyze the West German labour market by means of a cointegrated structural VAR model. We find sensible stable long-run relationships that are interpreted as a labour demand, a wage setting and a goods market equilibrium. In order to study the dynamic behaviour of the model we identify two common trends that push unemployment. We find that goods market shocks have only transitory impacts on unemployment. In the long run, it is almost equally determined by technology and labour supply factors. However, transitory shocks have major importance in the shorter run since adjustment processes are rather sluggish. First version received: Sept. 1998/Final version accepted: Feb. 2000     

Stock market volatility of regulated industries: an empirical assessment

This paper analyses stock market volatility for the regulated electricity, gas and water utility industries in the UK for the period 1991 - 2002. Using a conditional approach, we decompose stock market volatility in components characterised by different degrees of persistence and bearing different economic interpretations. In particular, we identify common and idiosyncratic persistent volatility features of regulated industries and offer an interpretation of the findings in terms of industrial structure and regulatory activity.Received: September 2003, Accepted: March 2004, JEL Classification: L51, L97 Correspondence to: Claudio Morana