Sectoral structure, heterogeneous plants, and international trade

I examine the impact of trade policy on manufacturing plant behavior by developing a methodology that addresses both plant heterogeneity and intersectoral resource reallocation. A plant-level microsimulation based upon the industry structure of Bernard et al. (2003) is linked to a multi-sector computable general equilibrium model. This linkage permits an analysis of plant-level behavior that encompasses the trade-induced changes in factor prices and consumption patterns. The methodology is applied in the examination of two counterfactual trade policy scenarios on the Chilean manufacturing sector. The results suggest that trade liberalization leads to a reallocation of output toward the most productive producers. This result is driven by two primary causes: (a) a reduction in the price of inputs that promotes the expansion of output by the most productive producers and (b) increased competition from overseas that drives the least productive producers out of the market.     

Standardization of intermediate goods and international trade

Abstract.  This paper analyzes the relationship between standardization of intermediate inputs and international trade. We employ a two-country, general equilibrium model with differentiated manufacturing goods. Production of manufacturing goods requires specific intermediate inputs, which can be either specialized or standardized. Standardization and the pattern of trade are determined endogenously in our model. In this framework we derive the effects of trade integration, that is, a decline in trading costs for intermediate goods, on the equilibrium outcome.     

Endogenous vertical restraints in international trade

This paper examines interbrand competition between a domestic and a foreign manufacturer who market their products through intermediaries. The contracts manufacturers offer these intermediaries are endogenous. In equilibrium contracts may specify exclusive territories (ET), depending on the degree of substitutability between products and the level and degree of transparency of trade barriers. Trade liberalization, through lower or more transparent barriers, may lead manufacturers to use ET, thereby substituting private anti-competitive arrangements for government-imposed barriers. This substitution may decrease competition and welfare, and thus create a role for competition policy in a freer trade environment.     

Vertical distribution, parallel trade, and price divergence in integrated markets

We develop a model of vertical pricing in which an original manufacturer sets wholesale prices in two markets that are integrated at the distributor level by parallel imports (PI). The manufacturing firm needs to set these two prices to balance three competing interests: restricting competition in the PI-recipient market, avoiding resource wastes due to actual trade, and reducing the double-markup problem in the PI-source nation. These tradeoffs imply the counterintuitive result that retail prices could diverge as a result of declining trading costs, even as the volume of PI increases. Thus, in some circumstances it may be misleading to think that permitting PI is an unambiguous force for price integration.     

Currency crisis transmission through international trade

The Eurozone recent crisis has shown how balance of payments problems in less developed European Monetary Union (EMU) member countries can affect EMU trading partners, spreading the crisis to a larger group of countries. This paper introduces a three-country dynamic general equilibrium model to analyze whether and how terms of trade effects can generate a spillover effect or a currency crisis transmission between countries. Specifically, using a two period model, it incorporates world market clearing conditions for tradables into a new theoretic model, analyzes net capital flow movements between countries, and establishes cross-border macroeconomic linkages. This paper shows how a currency crisis can transmit through the real (trade) sector channel of the economy.     

3D printing,international trade,and FDI

We analyze the relationship between 3D printing technology, the volume of trade, and the structure of foreign direct investment (FDI). We present a standard trade model with firm-specific heterogeneity into which we include 3D printing as a technology choice for foreign direct investment. The model generates three predictions. First, 3D printers are introduced in areas with high economic activity that face high transport costs. Second, technological progress in 3D printing leads to FDI dependent on traditional techniques gradually being replaced by FDI based on 3D printing. Third, with wider adoption, further technological progress in 3D printing leads to a gradual replacement of international trade. Empirical evidence focusing on the sectors with the highest rates of adoption supports the first hypothesis, while evidence from a case study supports the second and third. Our results suggest that the traditional strategy of poor countries for export-led industrialization is threatened by the widespread adoption of 3D printing that replaces international trade.     

Information-based trade

We study the possibility of trade for purely informational reasons. We depart from previous analyses (e.g. Grossman and Stiglitz (1980) [22] and Milgrom and Stokey (1982) [32]) by allowing the final payoff of the asset being traded to depend on an action taken by its eventual owner. We characterize conditions under which equilibria with trade exist.     

Economic reform, voting, and local political intervention: Evidence from India

This paper uses the Indian tariff reforms of the early nineties to estimate how voters hurt by economic reforms respond. Regions more hurt by the tariff reform increased their support for both the party that initiated their suffering and parties with similar preferences in favor of poverty-centric policies. This response is surprisingly sophisticated, where voters did not simply punish incumbents for negative income shocks and correctly discounted initial anti-reform stances by opposition parties that later turned out to be false. Furthermore, the strength of this voting response varied with both geography and local political incentives, suggesting that the economic effects of reforms might vary substantially in large and decentralized democracies.     

Innovation and international trade in technology

The international market for technology is growing rapidly relative to world GDP. To study the international technology market, I present a model of innovation and international trade in which inventors auction their technology in both domestic and foreign markets. There is monopolistic competition in differentiated products. International trade in technology has number of significant economic effects. Technology trade improves the quality of innovation by increasing the pool of R&D experiments from which the best technology is chosen. Technology trade increases the efficiency of invention while at the same time lowering the total number of inventors relative to the equilibrium without technology trade. Technology trade increases the volume of trade in goods. Technology trade increases product variety at the market equilibrium. Technology trade increases national income in each country and increases total gains from trade.     

International trade, flexible manufacturing, and outsourcing

Abstract .  This study analyzes the impact of opening up markets on the diffusion of flexible manufacturing in a general equilibrium framework. With flexible manufacturing, suppliers can service a range of downstream industries and do not have to be concerned about being held up. Instead, the vertical structure is determined by the trade-off between economies of scale in flexible manufacturing and product specificity of in-house production. The analysis derives a number of testable predictions with regard to firm size and productivity measures and shows that globalization can lead to a consolidation in upstream markets, lower real wages, and reduce welfare.     

The signaling power of trade protection

This paper proposes an empirical analysis to provide new insight into the trade diversion effects of antidumping (AD) policy. Trade diversion is the shift in trade from named countries in an AD investigation to non-named countries. Previous studies have concluded that AD action causes a considerable drop in exports from named countries, however the extent to which trade is diverted to non-named countries is still an open debate. This paper examines to see whether AD action on named countries can have signaling effects on non-named countries. To examine the trade effects on non-named countries, a time series data at an 8-digit product level is constructed for all cases initiated between 1997 and 2003 in the European Union. The paper provides evidence that antidumping policy has signaling effects on non-named imports.     

Global factor trade with differentiated factor prices and factor intensities

Abstract .  Relaxing the assumption of internationally identical factor intensity techniques in the HOV model creates two challenges. First, computing actual factor intensity techniques of different countries requires detailed input-output tables and factor usage data, which are not always available. Second, determinants of the factor intensity technique differences across countries need to be identified. This paper explores the role of relative factor price differences in the determination of factor intensity technique differences across countries and proposes an inferring method that infers factor intensity techniques of different countries based on relative factor price differences. The HOV model is then modified accordingly.     

Buyer investment, export variety, and intrafirm trade

This paper studies a model of buyer investment and its effect on the variety and vertical structure of international trade. A distinction is made between two types of buyer investment: “Flexible” and “specific”, which differ in the ability of a buyer to match with a seller. The interaction of buyer investment with the entry and pricing incentives of suppliers are analyzed. It is shown that (i) there can be multiple equilibria in the variety of products traded, and (ii) less product variety is associated with more intrafirm trade. The possibility of multiple equilibria is consistent with the observation that some similar economies, such as Taiwan and South Korea, differ substantially in their export varieties to the U.S. A cross-country empirical analysis confirms the negative correlation between export variety and intrafirm trade.     

Parallel trade,product quality,and welfare

We study the welfare effects of parallel trade (PT) considering investment in quality. We thus revisit the case for PT in research-intensive industries. We find that PT may raise quality, depending on how preferences for quality differ across countries. Conditional on quality, consumer surplus may rise (fall) in the PT-source (PT-recipient) country. While PT reduces ex post welfare, improving quality is a necessary condition for PT to increase welfare ex ante.     

Household inequality, social welfare, and trade

Working with Sen social welfare functions (meaning explicit separability between mean income and income dispersion), we develop a generalized dual approach to tracking household inequality aspects of social welfare in general equilibrium. We highlight how household equity can be examined analytically alongside production efficiency in duality-based models, using our dual framework to explore potential trade-offs between efficiency and equity effects of trade policy. Our results complement the set of standard inequality results in trade theory focused on functional rather than household inequality. We also find that the relative distributional impact of tariffs on welfare is conditional on the initial level of inequality.     

Wage inequality, technology, and trade

The recent widening of wage inequality has been attributed by some to skill-biased-technical-change and by others to trade liberalization. This paper examines the two explanations within a unified model and also presents a new modeling of skill-biased-technical-change, where skilled workers replace unskilled ones. As a result technology adoption is endogenous and does not occur in all countries. Hence, wages for both types of workers, trade patterns and also factor productivities in all countries are endogenously determined. The model sheds light on the relationship between technology and trade, on the reasons for global productivity differences and on the causes for the recent rise in wage inequality.     

Exchange rate volatility and international trade: A general-equilibrium analysis

We analyze the relation between exchange-rate volatility and the volume of international trade, in a general-equilibrium stochastic-endowment economy with imperfect international commodity markets, and treating both variables as endogenous. Even in the simplest model, the sign of the relation depends on the source for the change in volatility. For instance, more volatility of the endowments and higher costs to international trade both boost exchange risk (and lower welfare); but the first increases the expected volume of trade, while the second decreases trade. Note that even the (inter-equilibria) relation between trade and welfare is ambiguous.     

Partnerships, lemons, and efficient trade

We analyze the possibility of efficient trade with informationally interdependent valuations and with a dispersed ownership. A main role is played by the effects of adverse selection on incentive payments and budget constraints. Variations in the degree of interdependence directly influence the incentive payments and ultimately lead to a tightening or relaxation of the budget constraint, thus affecting the ability to achieve efficient trade. We derive precise possibility conditions for efficient trade, and we offer a framework in which the interplay of insights previously obtained by Akerlof (Quart. J. Econom. 89 (1970) 488), Myerson and Satterthwaite (J. Econom. Theory 28 (1983) 265), and Cramton et al. (Econometrica 55 (1987) 615) can be analyzed. In addition, we discuss to what extent possibility results previously obtained for private values environments can be generalized.     

Foreign direct investment in services and manufacturing productivity: Evidence for Chile

This paper examines the impact of substantial foreign direct investment (FDI) inflows in producer service sectors on the total factor productivity (TFP) of Chilean manufacturing firms. Positive effects are obtained in firm fixed effects instrumental variables regressions and show that forward linkages from FDI in services explain 7% of the observed increase in Chile's manufacturing users' TFP. Our findings also suggest that service FDI fosters innovation activities in manufacturing. Moreover, we show that service FDI offers opportunities for laggard firms to catch up with industry leaders.     

The trade reducing effects of market power in international shipping

Developing countries pay substantially higher transportation costs than developed nations, which leads to less trade and perhaps lower incomes. This paper investigates price discrimination in the shipping industry and the role it plays in determining transportation costs. In the presence of market power, shipping prices depend on the demand characteristics of goods being traded. We show theoretically and estimate empirically that ocean cargo carriers charge higher prices when transporting goods with higher product prices, lower import demand elasticities, and higher tariffs, and when facing fewer competitors on a trade route. These characteristics explain more variation in shipping prices than do conventional proxies such as distance, and significantly contribute to the higher shipping prices facing the developing world. A simple back of the envelope calculation suggests that eliminating market power in shipping would boost trade volumes by 5.9% (for the US) to 15.2% (for Latin America). Our findings are also important for evaluating the impact of tariff liberalization. Cargo carriers decrease shipping prices by 1–2% for every 1% reduction in tariffs.