Financial frictions and investment: requiem in Q

Understanding the nature of financial frictions faced by firms is relevant for both monetary and fiscal policy experiments. Empirical investment studies commonly find that proxies for firms' internal funds are significant as explanatory variables, particularly in the Q-theory based regression framework. These findings are often interpreted as evidence of financial frictions. This paper investigates that inference by specifying and estimating a class of dynamic optimization models where imperfectly competitive firms face financial constraints. Market power induces the principal link between investment and internal funds. We find no evidence to support the argument that capital market imperfections contribute to the relationship between investment and profitability.     

Foreign ownership and investment: evidence from Korea

This study examines whether an increase in foreign ownership affects investment in Korea. Many studies have shown that in an imperfect financial market, a firm's investment depends on the availability of internal funds. If high foreigners’ shareholding is a sign of a firm's good financial position, and if foreign investors demand better corporate governance to protect their investments, then cash-flow sensitivity of investment decreases with the level of foreign ownership. Using data from Korean firms, it is found that cash-flow sensitivity of investment is lower in firms with high foreign ownership than in those with low foreign ownership. This finding is regarded as evidence for a potential benefit of open financial markets.     

Q-theory of investment and earnings retentions—evidence from Scandinavia

In a frictionless milieu, retentions should have no impact on investment behavior. Empirical studies, however, typically find that retentions are an important determinant of investment. Managerial discretion and financial constraints are two alternative explanations that have been suggested. This article uses a panel of listed Scandinavian firms to examine the importance of earnings retentions as a determinant of investment. Measures of Tobin’s Q, marginal q, and sales accelerator are used to control for investment opportunities. Scandinavian firms are found to depend on earnings retentions to a high degree, more so than in other developed economies. This high dependence on retentions suggests that the Scandinavian capital markets are suffering from allocational inefficiencies. This can be assumed to have detrimental effects on the speed of structural change. Moreover, these market frictions appear too large to per se be caused by information asymmetries or managerial discretion phenomena. Possible institutional explanations are suggested.     

Price‐level versus inflation targeting with financial market imperfections

Abstract Price‐level targeting (PT) is compared with inflation targeting (IT) in a DSGE model augmented with imperfections in both debt and equity markets. The PT regime outperforms the IT regime, and the gain depends on the degree of financial market frictions. This is because inflation is better anchored under PT, owing to the expectation channel, and therefore the monetary authority has more leverage to deal with the financial market distortions. We also find that the gain is higher if the optimal rule reacts to asset prices instead of the output gap, and the rule requires a positive response to asset prices.     

Does financial liberalization improve the allocation of investment?: Micro-evidence from developing countries

Using firm level panel data from 12 developing countries we explore whether financial liberalization improves the efficiency with which investment funds are allocated. A summary index of the efficiency of investment allocation that measures whether investment funds are going to firms with a higher marginal return to capital is developed. We examine the relationship between this and various measures of financial liberalization and find that liberalization increases the efficiency with which investment funds are allocated. This holds after various robustness checks and is consistent with firm level evidence of a stronger association between investment and fundamentals after financial liberalization.     

R&D financing and growth

ABSTRACT

R&D investment are an important engine of growth and development. Yet economists have often claimed underinvestment, based on the consideration that these projects are more costly to finance, especially, due to the asymmetric information between inside and outside investors. Coherently, a recent empirical evidence has shown that firms intensively active in R&D are less leveraged and rely more heavily on internal finance. Motivated by this evidence, we study the effects of asymmetric information and financial frictions within a GE economy of Schumpeterian tradition. The model and equilibrium concept are rich enough to represent investment and innovation decisions, technology adoption/diffusion through patent licensing and, most importantly, firms' financial decisions. In this representation, R&D-intensive firms might effectively rely more on internal sources and equity than on debt financing, relative to what would happen in frictionless markets. Further, financial decisions affect aggregate investment and income dynamics.     

Financial Development and Inequality in the Global Economy

We build a heterogeneous firms model with firm‐specific wages and credit frictions to study the role of financial development for inequality in the global economy. If there are many small (non‐exporting) firms, better access to external funds reduces wage and profit inequality as well as unemployment. In contrast, if there are many large (exporting) firms, financial development might have opposite effects – especially if trade costs are low. In summary, the implications of financial development for inequality depend on the size distribution of firms and on the costs of exporting. Trade liberalization, however, raises inequality unambiguously.     

Inflation and asset returns

Sustained inflation is detrimental to long-run growth and the financial system. A recent theoretical literature suggests that high inflation implies low real returns on assets. These low returns exacerbate informational frictions, interfering with the functioning of financial markets and the allocation of investment. We investigate the plausibility of an inverse relationship between inflation and real returns. Inflation and nominal equity returns are negatively correlated or uncorrelated for all low-to-moderate inflation economies examined. Safe nominal rates of return and inflation are only weakly positively correlated. However, for high inflation economies inflation and nominal returns are strongly positively correlated.     

Financial market imperfections and monetary policy strategy

In a model with imperfect money, credit and reserve markets, we examine if an inflation-targeting central bank applying the funds rate operating procedure to indirectly control market interest rates also needs a monetary aggregate as policy instrument. We show that if private agents use information extracted from money and financial markets to form inflation expectations and if interest rate pass-through is incomplete, the central bank can use a narrow monetary aggregate and the discount interest rate as independent and complementary policy instruments to reinforce the credibility of its announcements and the role of inflation target as a nominal anchor for inflation expectations. This study shows how a monetary policy strategy combining inflation targeting and monetary targeting can be conceived to guarantee macroeconomic stability and the credibility of monetary policy. Friedman's k-percent money growth rule, which can generate dynamic instability, and two alternative stabilizing feedback monetary targeting rules are examined.     

On the marginal source of investment funds

Under the ‘new view’ of dividend taxation developed by Auerbach (Quarterly Journal of Economics 1979;93:433-446), Bradford (Journal of Public Economics 1981;15:1-22) and King (Public Policy and the Corporation, Chapman & Hall, London, 1977), the marginal source of finance for new investment projects is retained earnings. In this case, the tax advantage of retaining earnings precisely offsets the double taxation of subsequent dividends: taxes on dividends have no impact on the investment incentives of firms using retentions as a marginal source of funds and paying dividends with residual cash flows. We show that the same invariance with respect to dividend taxes may hold under weaker conditions with respect to the source of funds, if the use of funds follows the same pattern. We find evidence that there is significant heterogeneity in our sample of US firms, with some firms exhibiting dividend behavior consistent with this expanded version of the new view, and others exhibiting behavior consistent with the traditional view that retained earnings are not an important marginal source of funds.     

R&D based knowledge capital and future firm growth: Evidence from China’s Growth Enterprise Market firms

Building upon a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) model, this paper examines the role of knowledge-based capital (KC) in improving firms’ future growth in productivity. Based on the analysis of Chinese listed firms from 2006 to 2017 in the Growth Enterprise Market (GEM), we find KC often generates endogenous movements in productivity and earnings over the business cycles, suggesting that the nature of KC is pro-cyclical. Moreover, investment in KC is often classified as a corporate expense and is thus deducted from the current year’s profits. Therefore, firms with high R&D investments have significantly higher future productivity growth but lower current profitability than do those with lower R&D investments. Given these characteristics, KC’s benefits to productivity and future earnings are thus not immediate. For faster growth in the long term, firms should continue investing in KC even if they may face a short-term fall in corporate earnings as a result of internal knowledge investment, especially for fast-growing GEM firms.     

Liquidity Constraints and Investment in Transition Economies

We use Bulgarian firm-level data to investigate the impact of liquidity constraints on investment performance. Internal funds are an important determinant of investment in most industrialized countries. We test whether internal funds are important for firm investment during the current transition process in Bulgaria. We use a simple accelerator model of investment to test whether liquidity constraints are relevant in the case of Bulgaria. Our estimations are based on data for the period 1993–95, prior to the Bulgarian financial crisis in 1996–97. It turns out that Bulgarian firms are liquidity constrained, and that firms' size and financial structure help to distinguish between firms that are more and less liquidity constrained. In our view, liquidity constraints can be given a different interpretation in the case of transition economies as compared to Western economies. A more in depth analysis of the data reveals that liquidity constraints, and consequently the access to external funds for Bulgarian firm investment, are to be seen against the background of soft-budget constraints and the failure of the financial system to enforce an efficient allocation of funds. In our view, the lack of liquidity constraints may actually be seen as a sign of financial weakness in the case of Bulgaria.     

The Sovereign Yield Curve and the Macroeconomy in China

A dynamic Nelson–Siegel model is adopted to estimate three time‐varying factors of yield curves, the level, the slope and the curvature, and a vector autoregressive model is built to study interactions between macro variables and the yield curve. Results show that, first, money supply growth is a more effective instrument to curb inflation than the monetary policy interest rate; however, the central bank also adjusts the interest rate to stabilize money supply. Second, investment is an important measure to stimulate the Chinese economy, but it also pushes up money supply growth, which results in higher inflation. Third, the yield curve reacts significantly to innovations to investment growth and money supply growth. The segmentation of China's bond market hinders the efficient implementation of monetary policy, and the monetary policy transmission mechanism is still weak in China. Finally, interactions between the yield curve and the macroeconomy in China are nearly unidirectional. Macroeconomic variables reshape the yield curve, but direct adjustments of the yield curve do not significantly change macroeconomic variables. Due to the incomplete liberalization of financial markets, there exists a wide disjunction between the real economy and financial markets in China.     

How Important are Financial Frictions in the United States and the Euro Area?

This paper aims to evaluate whether frictions in credit markets are important for business cycles in the United States and the euro area. I modify the DSGE financial accelerator model developed by Bernanke, Gertler and Gilchrist (1999) by adding such frictions as price indexation to past inflation, sticky wages, consumption habits and variable capital utilization. When estimating the model using Bayesian methods, I find that financial frictions are relevant in both areas. According to the posterior odds ratio, the data clearly favor the model with financial frictions, both in the United States and the euro area. Moreover, financial frictions are larger in the euro area.     

Disentangling barriers to internationalization

Abstract. Recent literature on multinational firms has focused on low productivity as a barrier to the internationalization of firms. But labour market frictions or financial constraints may also hamper internationalization. In order to assess the importance of these barriers, we present new empirical evidence on the extensive and intensive margin of exports and foreign direct investment (FDI) based on micro‐level data of German firms. First, we find a positive impact of firm size and productivity on firms’ international activities. Second, labour market frictions can constitute barriers to foreign activities. Third, self‐reported financial constraints have no impact on firms’ internationalization decisions. JEL classification: F23, G2     

REGIONAL DISPARITIES AND INVESTMENT–CASH FLOW SENSITIVITY: EVIDENCE FROM CHINESE LISTED FIRMS

In China, regional disparities are significant. We find that firms in inland regions rely more on their internal funds in terms of their investment activities than those in coastal regions, and that the sensitivity gap between inland and coastal firms widened in the recent contractionary monetary policy period. This suggests that firms in inland regions find it harder to obtain outside funds due to the unfavourable social and economic environments they face. Our findings suggest that capital markets in China respond rationally to the potential impact of regional disparities on a firm's performance.     

Firm‐Specific Learning and the Investment Behavior of Large and Small Firms*

We examine a model of size distribution and growth of firms where firms learn about idiosyncratic productivity parameters through their production experience. Aggregate shocks, by adding noise to learning at the firm level, can produce different responses across firms. In particular, young firms, which are smaller on average than older firms and more uncertain about their productivity, can “overreact” to aggregate shocks. Such differences across firm sizes and ages, which arise here in a model with perfect financial markets, are often attributed to financial frictions that hit small and large firms differently.     

Do price-earnings ratios explain investment decisions better than Tobin’s q? Evidence from German firm-level data

This article tests the additional information content of price-earnings ratios, with respect to Tobin’s q, in explaining firms’ investment behaviour. While Tobin’s q describes the expected future earnings related to those projected by the book value, the price-earnings ratio compares future growth of earnings based on the projection of current earnings. In other words, a high price-earnings ratio might indicate that investors are willing to rely on future earnings growth, even though current earnings are low. By using an unbalanced panel of about 500 listed firms from Germany over the period 1987–2007, we find that including the price-earnings ratio in the investment equation does not change the explanatory power of Tobin’s q. Most notably, the price-earnings ratio exerts a positive and significant impact on investment. These results are robust to the inclusion of a measure of the firm’s internal funds and of fixed effects and also to the use of different estimators.     

盈余管理、股权再融资与公司业绩表现*

在公司股权结构集中的情况下，控股股东实施盈余管理并进行股权再融资后会引起公司利润回调，并可能对公司长期经营能力造成影响。本文以沪深两市实施股权再融资的A股上市公司为样本，研究发现盈余管理导致公司股权再融资后业绩下降。进一步地，在热发市场中公司实施盈余管理的幅度更大，引起股票错误定价的程度更高，导致股权再融资后会计业绩和市场业绩下滑的作用更为明显。此外，在发生控股股东股权稀释的公司中，盈余管理引起公司股权再融资后业绩下降的程度更为严重，这表明控股股东利用股价高估的“机会窗口”侵占外部投资者利益的动机非常强烈。     

Financial liberalization,private investment and portfolio choice: Financialization of real sectors in emerging markets

Using firm level panel data, we analyze the impacts of rates of return gap between financial and fixed investments under uncertainty on real investment performance in three emerging markets, Argentina, Mexico and Turkey. Employing a portfolio choice model to explain the low fixed investment rates in developing countries during the 1990s, we suggest that rather than investing in irreversible long-term fixed investments, firms may choose to invest in reversible short-term financial investments depending on respective rates of returns and the overall uncertainty in the economy. The empirical results show that increasing rates of return gap and uncertainty have an economically and statistically significant fixed investment reducing effect while the opposite is true with respect to financial investments.