去工业化对收入不平等的影响:机制分析与实证检验

基于126个国家1991-2017年的面板数据,考察了去工业化对收入不平等的影响。研究发现,去工业化会显著加剧收入不平等程度,这在发展中经济体尤为显著。从传导机制看,去工业化既可以通过劳动力就业转移直接影响收入不平等,也可通过非熟练劳动力就业和服务业部门就业分化间接影响收入不平等。一方面,去工业化导致非熟练劳动力受到更大冲击,致使该部分劳动力失业,加剧收入不平等;另一方面,去工业化导致非熟练劳动力的就业从工业的高薪部门转移至服务业的低薪部门,最终影响收入不平等。进一步研究发现,在可能存在"过早去工业化"的国家去工业化对收入不平等的作用更加明显。因此发展中经济体要着重预防由于去工业化可能带来的收入不平等程度恶化。     

Effects of Patent Protection on Optimal Corporate Income and Consumption Taxes in an R&D‐Based Growth Model

Does reducing the corporate income tax accompanied by an increase in the consumption tax to meet the government's budget constraint improve welfare? To respond, we examine the welfare‐maximizing corporate income tax and consumption tax rates in an R&D‐based growth model under the constraint that the government's budget is balanced at each point of time. Further, we consider how welfare‐maximizing tax rates change as patent protection becomes stronger, as seen in many countries. The results show that as patent protection becomes stronger, the corporate income tax rate should be higher and the consumption tax rate should be lower. This implies that under stronger patent protection, recovering production at the expense of innovation by raising corporate income tax and reducing consumption tax improves welfare.     

Intergenerational transfer of human capital and its impact on income mobility: Evidence from China

This paper analyzes theoretically and empirically the impact of intergenerational transmission of human capital on the income mobility in China. We use a three-period overlapping-generations (OLG) model to show that the human capital transfer plays a remarkable role in determining the parent-to-offspring investment in human capital and the intergenerational elasticity of income. We then estimate a simultaneous equations model (SEM) using the 1989–2009 China Health and Nutrition Survey (CHNS) data to verify our theoretical predictions. The results show that (i) human capital, measured by health and education, is directly transmitted from one generation to the next, reflecting the parent-induced inequality of development opportunities among offspring in China; (ii) the estimated intergenerational income elasticity increases from 0.429 to 0.481 when the direct transfer of human capital is accounted for, suggesting that omitting this mechanism would overestimate China's income mobility. Our findings provide policy implications on strengthening human capital investments among the disadvantaged groups, reinforcing reforms that promote equality of opportunity, and improving the efficiency of labor markets in China.     

The income distribution effects of environmental regulation in China: The case of binding SO2 reduction targets

Faced with serious environmental pollution, strengthening the enforcement of environmental regulations has become a priority for governments, especially with sustainable development as a main goal. However, there is not enough empirical evidence about the income distribution effect of environmental regulations. This paper analyzes binding emissions target as a policy shock of environmental regulation to empirically understand its impact on wage growth and inequality based on household and firm level data from 2002 to 2007 in China. The results show that in more pollution-intensive cities, stricter environmental regulation inhibited wage growth, furthermore widening the income gap between skilled and un-skilled labor. These results were further proofed after taking ventilation coefficients as the instrument variable. Heterogeneous tests show that this negative impact is more serious for un-skilled labor in high-polluting industries and also more significant for those located in the central and eastern parts of China.     

How Aging and Intergeneration Disparity Influence Consumption Inequality in China

Concurrent with market economic reforms, China is facing an increasing income gap and an aging population. The question addressed in the present paper is how much aging contributes to the rising disparity in consumption. Based on the model established by Ohtake and Saito （1998）, our study shows that cohort effects contribute close to 60percent of the rising consumption inequality, while approximately lO percent is the result of aging. The growth of aggregate consumption inequality caused by the cohort effect has various implications. Strengthening the redistribution system, especially the tax system, may enable the economy to avoid further increases in income inequality.     

Tax policy implications for a two‐engine growing economy

In an endogenous growth model with two engines of R&D and capital, we investigate the environment of “inclusive growth” for tax reallocations (tax increases or tax credits) to gain broader benefits in terms of promoting the overall GDP growth without an increase in income inequality. Our results show that a tax increase in the capital‐good sector can result in inclusive growth, boosting overall growth and reducing income inequality, provided that the status quo tax rate is not too high. Surprisingly, tax credits are not able to achieve such inclusive growth. While the GDP growth rises, a tax credit in the R&D sector not only increases income inequality but also decreases the aggregate employment, if the labor mobility cost between the final‐good and R&D/capital‐good sectors is relatively low. This provides a caution to policymakers given the fact that research tax credits have served as a common incentive to strengthen the R&D environment.     

On the trade,growth, and welfare effects of intellectual property rights protection

To examine how intellectual property rights protection affects trade, growth, and welfare, I develop a two-country R&D-based growth model in which final goods firms in both countries determine the range of imported varieties in the overall use of intermediate inputs. I show that strengthening patent protection in either country increases the range of imported varieties of intermediate goods and stimulates economic growth in the country that strengthened patent protection. Moreover, I also show that the Nash equilibrium level of patent protection is stronger than the globally optimal level of patent protection.     

Intersectoral Transfer,Growth, and Inequality in Rural Ecuador

In this paper we study intersectoral transfer and its impact on the distribution of income in Ecuador. We find that income shares between farm and nonfarm activities are roughly equal, on average, although the rich in rural areas typically receive a greater share of income from nonfarm sources. Thus decomposing inequality by income source reveals that a rise in nonfarm incomes increases inequality. Drawing on a new method to estimate local-level distributional outcomes, growth of the high-productivity nonfarm sector is observed to have a strong and positive association with average consumption and inequality. Growth of the low-productivity nonfarm sector is associated with little change in either average income or income inequality. Irrespective of subsector, growth of the nonfarm sector is associated with a substantial fall in poverty.     

The Effects of Labor Markets and Income Inequality on Crime: Evidence from Panel Data

We estimate a model of crime using panel data for the U.S. We focus on the role of labor markets, income distribution, and demographics on property crime. We find strong evidence that favorable labor market conditions have a significant negative effect on property crime. We further test this result using sector-specific wages and find that crime is most elastic with respect to wages in sectors that use low-skilled labor. We also find that income inequality has no significant effect on crime and that the proportion of young males in the population has a significant positive effect on crime.     

收入分布、厂商定价与耐用品的消费扩张

本文考察了收入差距对耐用消费品消费的影响。我们从厂商的定价理论出发。说明了收入差距对耐用消费品消费呈现出倒U型的影响：随着收入差距扩大，耐用消费品的消费量增加，但是，收入差距继续扩大则会减少耐用消费品的消费。这说明，适当的收入差距有利于社会消费水平提高和经济的发展，过大和过小的收入差距都无助于经济的起飞。我们最后运用城镇居民和农村居民彩电、洗衣机和冰箱的拥有量对该理论进行了实证检验，实证检验结果基本上支持了我们的理论分析。     

Pension systems and intragenenerational redistribution when labor supply is endogenous

In models with exogenous labor supply, a reallocation of fundsfrom a wage-related pension to a basic pension affects inequalitythrough changes in the pension paid, redistributing resourcesfrom the rich to the poor. We show that in a model with endogenouslabor supply, another effect is present: indeed changes of thebenefit formula have an impact on the labor/leisure choice.This effect goes in the opposite direction of the standard effectthat is also present in models with exogenous labor supply andit could be quite relevant, also depending on the differentassumptions on the working of the labor market. In particular,under specific assumptions on the utility and the productionfunctions, inequality is unaffected by a reallocation of fundstowards the basic pension. However this result changes if aminimum wage is introduced, since in this case inequality turnsout to be reduced.     

The Supply Side of the Race Between Demand and Supply: Policies to Foster Skill in the Modern Economy

In his celebrated book on income inequality, Jan Tinbergen (1975) wrote about the race between demand and supply in determining the evolution of wages and inequality. The demand side of the recent labor market is well understood. Skill-biased technical change favors skilled workers in many different economic environments. The supply side is less well understood. In the Netherlands, until recently, the supply side was winning and the returns to education were declining or stagnant. The exact reasons for this phenomenon are not well understood. Recently, however, there is evidence that suggests that the returns to schooling are increasing and that demand is outstripping supply, as it has done in most developed countries around the world. This has produced rising wage inequality. Unless more active supply side measures are undertaken, this trend is likely to continue. This problem, joined with the persistent problem of immigrant assimilation and the growing role of immigrants in the Dutch economy, renews interest in the supply side of the labor market. This lecture examines the determinants of the supply of skills in the short run and the long run. It examines the roles of short- term credit constraints and long-term family factors in fostering or retarding skill accumulation. It summarizes the evidence on a number of policy proposals to foster skills including early childhood programs, programs to alleviate short-term financial pressure, job training and second chance programs, and tax policies. This lecture stresses the cumulative dynamic nature of skill production and the importance of recognizing that skill begets skill in designing suitable policies to reduce inequality and foster economic growth. While the evidence is based on American data, the lessons are relevant for economies around the world. Specific lessons for the Netherlands are emphasized.     

Explaining The <Emphasis Type="Italic">Hump</Emphasis> In Life Cycle Consumption profiles

Summary  This paper documents life cycle (or age) profiles of (log) household income, durable and non-durable consumption for Dutch households after explicitly controlling for time (or business cycle) effects and birth cohort effects. We find that both measures of consumption as well as income is clearly hump shaped over the life cycle. Hence, real consumption per household seems to track income over the life cycle. This empirical regularity is hard to reconcile with basic specifications of the life cycle model. We further document life cycle profiles of demographic and labor supply variables. We argue that part, but not all, of the hump in consumption may be explained by household composition variables. Durable consumption per adult equivalent stays approximately flat until age 60 after which it drops dramatically. This phenomenon may be partly explained by a decrease in work related durable expenditures after retirement. Non-durable consumption per equivalent adult increases steadily until age 55 and stays approximately flat after that.      

Trade liberalization and income inequality: The case for Pakistan

Trade liberalization policies have been adopted by many developing countries to increase economic growth and reduce poverty. While the positive relationship between trade liberalization and economic growth is generally well accepted, the impact of trade liberalization on poverty and income inequality is still unclear. The objective of this paper is to use real data and real trade agreements of the state of Pakistan, to examine the predictions made by trade models about the impact of trade liberalization on income inequality. To illustrate, the impacts of several alternative bilateral and regional free trade agreements are simulated on household income and income inequality in Pakistan. The results show that trade liberalization does not always lead to a decline in income inequality in the short run. Trade agreements that do improve income equality, favor agriculture and often hinge on a decline in urban and non-farm household income. In the long run, changes in income equality are more positive, suggesting that efforts might best be applied towards improving the mobility of labor and capital.     

收入分配与中国居民消费——理论和基于中国的实证研究

本文研究了城乡收入差距扩大对中国居民消费需求的影响.基于生命周期框架的理论研究表明,收入水平越高,居民平均消费倾向和边际消费倾向越低;收入差距越大,居民消费需求越低.文章使用1978—2008年我国28个省、市、自治区的面板数据对理论模型进行了实证检验.结果显示,收入水平提高10000元,居民平均消费倾向下降25.6%,边际消费倾向下降7%;城乡收入差距扩大1单位,居民消费率下降6.5个百分点.数值模拟结果表明,城乡收入差距扩大导致居民消费率在2000—2008年间下降了3.42个百分点,解释了这一期间居民消费率下降的30.8%     

人口老龄化对城乡收入不平等的影响效应研究——基于中国二元经济结构演变的视角

理论分析表明,二元经济结构下人口老龄化能够通过要素禀赋结构调整和社会福利改善对城乡居民收入产生不同的收入效应和替代效应,进而影响城乡收入不平等。利用中国2000-2014年省际面板数据进行实证检验发现：中国人口老龄化显著的扩大了城乡收入不平等,但要素禀赋结构和社会福利水平对老龄化条件下的城乡收入不平等影响效应不同;随着对老年人口供养负担的加重,社会福利支出对老龄化条件下的城乡收入不平等主要表现为替代效应,城市偏向的社会福利支出使得农村因照料老人引起的劳动力供给减少扩大了城乡收入不平等;而要素禀赋结构的转变则使得老龄化主要表现为收入效应,劳动力相对资本的稀缺性导致转移劳动力工资上涨,从而缩小了城乡收入不平等;随着老龄化深化,通过社会福利改善和要素禀赋结构调整能够有效抵消老龄化对城乡收入不平等的负面影响;研究也证实了二元经济结构的优化和农业规模化经营对城乡收入不平等的缩小作用,而失业率上升和城乡投资差距却会加剧城乡收入不平等。     

数字普惠金融的创业效应与收入不平等:数字鸿沟还是数字红利？

数字普惠金融与实体经济之间的关系受到学界广泛关注,但其究竟是普惠的数字红利还是金融领域的数字鸿沟,这是数字普惠金融快速发展中亟需回答的重要理论与现实问题。文章通过匹配宏观统计数据和微观调查数据,实证研究了数字普惠金融的发展对收入不平等的影响,并从创业效应这一渠道进行了机制分析。研究发现：数字普惠金融的发展总体上改善了收入不平等状况,而数字普惠金融的创业效应是影响收入不平等的重要渠道之一。进一步的中介效应分析表明,数字普惠金融的创业效应对收入不平等的影响存在异质性：数字普惠金融通过促进生存型创业从而改善了收入不平等,而数字普惠金融对机会型创业的促进却在一定程度上扩大了收入不平等。文章的研究结论对于理解数字普惠金融发展的正外部性以及如何缓解收入不平等提供了新的视角。     

Land, Factor Markets, and Inequality in Rural China: Historical Evidence

Drawing on a unique household-level data set from northeast China in the 1930s, this paper explores the connections between the distribution of land, factor markets, and income distribution. We test whether patterns of income inequality were consistent with the predictions of a market-clearing, neoclassical model linking land and labor endowments, through factor markets to household income. While the model is consistent with some features in the data, we reject the hypothesis that factor markets worked perfectly and find support for the historian's intuition regarding the disproportionate impact of land inequality in the countryside. Nevertheless, where markets were more active, especially land rental markets, excess returns to land were diminished and inequality was lowest. This suggests that factor market development played a positive role in reducing inequality in rural China.     

钻石模型中生产要素对我国汽车产业的影响

外资企业的技术优势给国内汽车生产企业带来了竞争压力,促使国内企业纷纷考虑加强研发能力。为此本文用波特的钻石模型作为理论依据,在现有研究的基础之上,加入实际的数据,运用向量误差修正vec模型来分析波特模型中提到的生产要素对我国汽车行业的影响。模型结果显示,工程技术人员占职工比例、专利数量两个变量对汽车行业劳动生产率的长期正向影响在加强,社会固定资产投资和汽车行业固定资产投资对汽车行业劳动生产率的短期效应大于长期效应,长期效应逐渐减弱。我国汽车行业要增强竞争力必须形成自己的专业技术体系,掌握核心技术。     

城市最低生活保障兼有消费改善与劳动供给激励效应吗?

最低生活保障制度是我国社会保障体系中兜底性、基础性的制度安排,是保障民生、促进分配公平、维护经济安全和社会稳定的重要机制.本文通过对城市低保制度消费改善与劳动供给效应的综合评估发现,我国城市低保从整体上改善了受助家庭的消费状况,影响了受助家庭的消费结构,起到了提升经济福利的效果,但是对受助家庭的劳动供给激励效应还比较小...