Has the Exchange Rate Pass‐Through changed in South Africa?

This paper uses the two‐stage exchange rate pass‐through (ERPT) framework instead of the direct pass‐through (PT) from the exchange rate to consumer inflation to assess the variation in the ERPT for South Africa from 1994 to 2014. The paper uses rolling‐window estimation to examine the possibility of change in the ERPT over time. In addition, it investigates the asymmetric behaviour of the ERPT over the business cycle. The results indicate that the ERPT for South Africa is complete in the first stage but incomplete in the second stage. It implies that retailers do not pass all the cost to consumers. The first‐stage ERPT has declined slightly since the Global Financial Crisis. Weak domestic demand and possibly the concentration of firms in the manufacturing sector are the main forces behind this low PT. Moreover, there is evidence of asymmetry in the first‐stage ERPT in that it tends to rise in the upturn phase of the economy compared to the downturn. The second‐stage ERPT shows a considerable decline since the adoption of the inflation‐targeting regime. Similar to the first‐stage case, the PT is muted in the downturn but rises in the expansionary phase by about 10%.     

The British ‘failure’ that never was? The Anglo‐American ‘productivity gap’ in large‐scale interwar retailing—evidence from the department store sector1

Interwar British retailing has been characterized as having lower productivity, less developed managerial hierarchies and methods, and weaker scale economies than its US counterpart. This article examines comparative productivity for one major segment of large‐scale retailing in both countries—the department store sector. Drawing on exceptionally detailed contemporary survey data, we show that British department stores in fact achieved superior performance in terms of operating costs, margins, profits, and stock‐turn. While smaller British stores had lower labour productivity than US stores of equivalent size, TFP was generally higher for British stores, which also enjoyed stronger scale economies. We also examine the reasons behind Britain's surprisingly strong relative performance, using surviving original returns from the British surveys. Contrary to arguments that British retailers faced major barriers to the development of large‐scale enterprises, that could reap economies of scale and scope and invest in machinery and marketing to support the growth of their primary sales functions, we find that British department stores enthusiastically embraced the retail ‘managerial revolution’—and reaped substantial benefits from this investment.     

What Determines China's Grain Imports and Self‐sufficiency? The Role of Rising Domestic Costs and Varying World Market Prices

China's grain sectors have faced unprecedented challenges in recent years as the ever‐increasing and historically high level of grain output has failed to reduce grain imports. On the contrary, high grain imports and high domestic stock have accompanied historically high domestic output, a situation dubbed the “triple high” phenomenon in current policy discussion. This paper explores the role of widening domestic–world market price gaps in determining the triple high phenomenon. Unlike earlier studies that relied on production capacities, this paper argues that domestic production and demand (hence imports) are functions of domestic and world market prices and proposes an analytical framework to explicitly capture such price gaps under restricted trade linkages in general equilibrium. Following this approach, a set of price scenarios for the 2011–2020 period are constructed and simulated in a computable general equilibrium model. Results from the core scenarios, in which recent domestic and world market price trends are assumed to continue, suggest that further widening price gaps would substantially increase grain imports and reduce domestic output (by 60 million tons) and self‐sufficiency ratios from base levels. In the alternative scenarios with larger (smaller) price gaps, we find higher (lower) imports and larger (smaller) decreases in domestic output and self‐sufficiency ratios. Such results provide important policy implications as China's agricultural policy undergoes significant adjustment.     

A ‘blank cheque'? Portuguese Second World War sterling balances, 1940–73

The British effort in the Second World War required massive external financing which depended on Lend‐Lease and the accumulation of sterling balances. Indebtedness in sterling balances corresponded to almost 38 per cent of this total at the end of the war. Portuguese sterling balances, although a small share of the total, were important because of pre‐emptive purchases, especially of wolfram, and because of the ‘gold clause’ which was to be applied to outstanding balances. Portugal's willingness to finance British purchases contrasts with the requirement of German payments in goods or cash for their purchases in Portugal. The settlement of Portuguese sterling balances in August 1945 was singular as it preceded the Anglo‐American settlement of December 1945 which had important consequences for sterling balance holders, as the US insisted that the US$3.75 billion loan should not be used to settle British war debts. Postwar settlement of British debt through a long‐term loan from Portugal to Britain contrasts with settlements that involved the sale of British assets. Salazar's concerns about the postwar international position of Portugal, the Portuguese Empire, and the survival of the Portuguese regime are relevant in explaining his pro‐British stance during and after the war.     

The Arab Spring,a setback for gender equality? Evidence from the Gallup World Poll

Combining a unique dataset from the Gallup World Poll for the period 2009–2018 with Wolfsfeld et al.’s (2013) protest index, we evaluate the impact of the Arab Spring pro-democracy protests on gender equality in eleven Middle Eastern and North African countries. We use a difference-in-differences approach and find a negative impact of mass protests on female access to labor markets and support for women’s rights in the years following the events. In particular, a one-standard-deviation increase in the protest intensity lowered female participation rates by 3.7 % points. Likewise, Arab Spring protests significantly lowered support for women’s legal rights, occupational rights, and divorce rights. Findings are robust to different samples, alternative model specifications, omitted variable bias, and an alternative protest measure from Steinert-Threlkeld (2017). Regarding potential mechanisms, we suggest that a shift in the Arab zeitgeist towards a less secular society might help explain our findings.     

HIV/AIDS Knowledge and Behaviour: Have Information Campaigns Reduced HIV Infection? The Case of Kenya*

Abstract: AIDS continues to have a devastating effect on developing countries, particularly in sub‐Saharan Africa. The lack of a proven effective vaccine to stop HIV transmission has led to much of public policy putting an emphasis on information campaigns in order to reduce HIV‐prevalence. In this paper we examine the impact of HIV/AIDS‐knowledge from two sides. First, we examine to what extent the campaigns have been successful at inducing the expected behavioural change with regards to HIV‐related attitudes. Second, we examine the impact of HIV/AIDS knowledge on HIV status. The basic policy issue can be expressed as follows: even if individuals have acquired sufficient and necessary information on the basic facts about AIDS, factors such as innate risk attitudes or cultural background could undermine the effects of the campaigns. Using the Kenya Demographic and Health Survey (2003) we elicit empirical evidence on the relation between declared HIV/AIDS‐knowledge, behavioural attitudes related to HIV/AIDS situations and the relation between knowledge and observed HIV‐status. Overall, our empirical findings suggest that information campaigns have been effective at equipping the adult population in Kenya with the required knowledge to avoid becoming HIV‐positive. However, when HIV‐status is measured objectively we find that the relation between correctly declared attitudes and actual behaviour is only statistically significant for females who have arrived into sexuality late enough to benefit from such campaigns: it is for these females that the impact of the information campaigns has been to statistically reduce the probability of becoming HIV positive, as intended. In the case of males we find that there is no statistical relation between either knowledge or timing of the information campaigns and a positive HIV status. Nevertheless, another important finding refers to the selection bias induced by males who are sampled randomly but decline to take the HIV test. The consequences of this bias are twofold; first, the estimated policy parameters for males should be interpreted with caution, but more importantly, estimating the population level HIV‐prevalence for Kenyan males based on the DHS implies underestimating the true and unknown prevalence rate. Our analysis controls for individual characteristics, selection bias and endogeneity effects, thus allowing us to make inferences for the full population and with regards to policy implementation.     

The Political Economy of Middle‐Income Traps: Is South Africa in a Long‐Run Growth Trap? The Path to “Bounded Populism”

The current literature on middle‐income traps has been dominated by economists who have relied on economic explanations mainly around stages of development and the structural transformation of economies. But there is an equally vigorous literature from political science which speaks to the political economy of transitions. We look at the dynamics of how economic modernisation triggers structural changes with winners and losers and how this is reflected in the polarisation of the political sphere amongst middle‐income countries. This paper asks the question of whether South Africa is an archetypical example of a country stuck in a trap and how this has affected the policy choices that it has made. South Africa needs to move up the value chain with a viable value proposition, and this requires a very different policy set and human capital plan.     

Why did socialist economies fail? The role of factor inputs reconsidered

This article presents new estimates for investment and new growth accounts for three socialist economies between 1950 and 1989. Government statistics reported distorted measures for both the rate and the trajectory of productivity growth in Czechoslovakia, Hungary, and Poland. Researchers have benefited from revised output data, but have continued to use official statistics on capital input, or estimated capital stock from official investment data. Investment levels and rates of capital accumulation were much lower than officially claimed and over‐reporting worsened over time. A setback in factor accumulation—both investment in equipment and labour input—contributed very significantly to the socialist growth failure of the 1980s.     

Does an R&D tax credit affect R&D expenditure? The Japanese R&D tax credit reform in 2003

To what extent does a tax credit affect firms’ R&D activity? What are the mechanisms? This paper examines the effect of R&D tax credits on firms’ R&D expenditure by exploiting the variation across firms in the changes in the eligible tax credit rate between 2000 and 2003. Estimating the first-difference equation of the linear R&D model by panel GMM, we find the estimated coefficient of an interaction term between the eligible tax credit rate and the debt-to-asset ratio is positive and significant, indicating that the effect of tax credit is significantly larger for firms with relatively large outstanding debts. Conducting counterfactual experiments, we found that the aggregate R&D expenditure in 2003 would have been lower by 3.0–3.4 percent if there had been no tax credit reform in 2003, where 0.3–0.6 percent is attributable to the effect of financial constraint, and that the aggregate R&D expenditure would have been larger by 3.1–3.9 percent if there had been no cap on the amount of tax credits, where 0.3–0.8 percent is attributable to relaxing the financial constraint of firms with outstanding debts.     

Pre‐colonial culture,post‐colonial economic success? The Tswana and the African economic miracle

Cultural explanations of economic phenomena have recently enjoyed a renaissance among economists. This article provides further evidence for the salience of culture through an in‐depth case study of one of the fastest‐growing economies in the world during the last 50 years—Botswana. The unique culture that developed among the Tswana before and during the early days of colonialism, which shared many features with those of western nation‐states, appears to have contributed significantly to the factors widely seen as determinants of Botswana's post‐colonial economic success: state legitimacy, good governance and democracy, commercial traditions, well‐established property rights, and inter‐ethnic unity. Neighbouring Southern African cultures typically did not exhibit these traits.