Accounting Variables,Deception, and a Bag of Words: Assessing the Tools of Fraud Detection

We develop a data‐generated tool for distinguishing between fraudulent and truthful reports based on the language used in the management discussion and analysis section of annual and interim reports. Using this method, we are able to assign a probability of truth to each report which is then shown to be an effective indicator of fraud. Our work goes beyond the development of a tool alone, however, by conducting an extensive comparison of our probability‐of‐truth measure with eight alternative detection tools representing both quantitative and language‐based approaches. Comparisons are made across a variety of samples and show that our language‐based approach can be effective in both cross‐sectional and time‐series settings. It is useful both in distinguishing between fraudulent and truthful firms and in identifying fraudulent reports from a series of reports issued by a single firm. This second setting is one in which accounting‐based detection tools have frequently struggled. We establish that, not only is our probability‐of‐truth measure significantly associated with fraud, so too is the change in this measure from a firm's previous reports. Prior reports may serve an important benchmarking role in using language‐based tools to identify fraud.     

On the comparison of dollar-unit and stratified mean-per-unit estimators

Abstract. The paper discusses the findings reported by Smieliauskas (1986) and expands on them. It focuses on the dominance criterion for cost efficiency and on the usefulness of power curves for stratified mean-per-unit estimators. The analyses lead to the conclusions that: (1) while an audit plan which dominates another is associated with lower cost, a plan with lower cost does not necessarily dominate: (2) the distribution function of the t statistic becomes normal for sufficiently large samples, but the approach to normality is not necessarily uniform as sample size increases; (3) large sample size is required for nominal confidence levels to be a good approximation to the true confidence level, and the true confidence level can move temporarily farther from the nominal level as the sample size increases; and (4) the lack of reliability of ex ante power curves for the stratified mean-per-unit estimator makes it difficult to decide which power curve dominates. Résumé. Cet article discute des résultats publiés par Smielauskas (1986) et les extrapole. Il met l'accent sur le critère de dominance pour l'efficacité des coûts et sur l'efficacité des courbes de puissance pour les estimateurs de moyenne-par-unité stratifiée. Les analyses portent à conclure que: (1) même si un programme de vérification dominant par rapport à un autre est associé à un coût inférieur, un programme à coût inférieur n'est pas nécessairement dominant; (2) la fonction de distribution de la statistique t tend vers la normale pour des échantillons suffisamment grands, mais ce rapprochement vers la normalité n'est pas nécessairement uniforme à mesure que la taille de l‘échantillon devient plus grande; (3) un échantillon de grande taille est requis afin que les seuils de confiance “nominaux” constituent une bonne approximation du seuil de confiance “réel”, et le seuil de confiance “réel” peut s’éloigner temporairement du seuil de confiance “nominal” à mesure que s'accroît la taille de l‘échantillon; et (4) l'absence de fiabilité des courbes de puissance ex ante pour l'estimateur de moyenne-par-unité stratifiée rend ardue la sélection de la courbe de puissance dominante.     

A few bad apples: Communication in the presence of strategic ideologues

I propose a very simple model of strategic communication. The motivation is to help explain widespread persistent disagreement about objective facts. In the model, there is a message sender and a receiver, and two possible states of the world, left or right. The sender is one of three types: honest, or a leftist or rightist “ideologue.” The honest type observes a private signal in , with higher values implying stronger support for the right state, and reports the observed value truthfully. Ideologues strategically choose any message from this set to maximize the receiver's belief in their preferred state, ignoring any private information they may have. I show that a small presence of ideologues can have a large effect on communication: while we might expect ideologues to just send extreme messages, in most equilibria ideologues use “strategic understatement,” and in many cases actually mix over all non‐neutral (non‐N∕2) messages to mimic honest types and gain credibility. This distorts the interpretation of these messages such that all messages on a side of the spectrum (above or below N∕2) have the same effect on receiver beliefs. This coarsened communication is less informative than even the weakest non‐neutral messages in the absence of ideologues. I show by example how ideologues can cause large delays in the time required for receiver beliefs to converge to truth.     

Monopolising Islam: The Indonesian Ulama Council and state regulation of the ‘Islamic economy’

The Ulama Council of Indonesia (MUI) is an advisory body with a nationwide network of branches that produces fatwa ‘to guide the Islamic community and the government’. Nominally an independent NGO, MUI has always had a complex and mutually dependent relationship with the state, which established it and funds it. This paper describes regulatory changes since Soeharto's fall in 1998 that have expanded MUI's formal role in the state system for the administration of Islamic legal traditions and, in particular, the ‘syariah economy’. These changes have heightened MUI's influence and the legal authority of its fatwa, granting it new institutional roles (and, in some cases, monopolies) in relation to halal certification, Islamic finance and the haj pilgrimage. MUI has now begun to accrue quasi-legislative powers resembling those enjoyed by state ulama councils and state Muftis elsewhere in Southeast Asia, but not previously available to any modern Indonesian fatwa-producing body.     

Can Consumer Attitudes Forecast Household Spending in the United States? Further Evidence from the Michigan Survey of Consumers

This article examines the usefulness of various measures of consumer confidence in forecasting household spending in the United States. Using the reduced-form equation of Carroll, Fuhrer, and Wilcox (American Economic Review 84:1397-1408, 1994), we find that for the post-World War II period, the Index of Consumer Expectations is incrementally more informative about household spending than the Index of Consumer Sentiment for all categories of consumption examined. A similar conclusion emerges when Carroll, Fuhrer, and Wilcox's data set is used. Our overall results confirm the view that indices of consumer confidence reflect consumers' perception of future economic conditions. Also, the ability of these confidence indices to predict future consumption growth can be construed as a clear rejection of the random walk hypothesis of Hall (Journal of Political Economy 86:971-87, 1978).     

When the Client Is a Former Auditor: Auditees' Expert Knowledge and Social Capital as Threats to Staff Auditors' Operational Independence

Auditees can play an active role in influencing staff auditors' professional judgment and skepticism. Yet, although it constitutes one of the main threats to auditor independence, very little is known about the means and extent of auditees' power during the audit engagement. To address this knowledge gap, our study focuses on a specific category of auditees, namely, auditees who have worked as auditors in large accounting firms. We interviewed 36 of these auditees and triangulated our findings with 11 interviews conducted with auditors. At the theoretical level, we conceptualize auditees' influence over auditors as intentional and active through the notion of “social power.” Overall, our analysis shows that the efficacy of auditees' power during the engagement materializes through the mobilization of two main power resources developed during their time at the firms: (i) expert knowledge of auditing techniques and (ii) social capital. On the one hand, relying on their cognitive authority, auditees' employ three different power strategies to constrain staff auditors' operational independence: stage-setting, teaching, and questioning. On the other hand, auditees' social capital can support the use of two additional strategies: attracting and monitoring. Our triangulation analysis confirms our findings and suggests that auditors may be aware of the threats to independence that auditee expertise and social capital pose. By focusing on auditees' agentic capabilities—that is, individuals' capabilities to consciously exert influence over the course of events—we reinterpret the pressures exerted by clients on auditors as the product of strategic actions and discuss substantive consequences for independence risk.     

The Short‐Term Economic Impact of Levying E‐Tolls on Industries

TERM is used to analyse the short‐term regional economic impact of an increase in industries' transport costs when paying E‐Tolls. Market‐clearing and accounting equations allow regional economies to be represented as an integrated framework, labour adjusts to accommodate increasing transportation costs, and investments change to accommodate capital that is fixed. 1 1 TERM is a bottom‐up CGE model designed for highly disaggregated regional data. The Enormous Regional Model's originate from Horridge et al. ( 2005 ) and are better explained in Horridge ( 2011 ).
We concluded that costs from levying E‐Tolls on industries are small in comparison to total transport costs, and the impact on economic aggregates and most industries are marginal: investments (?0.404%), gross domestic product (GDP) (?0.01) and consumer price inflation (?0.10%). This is true even when considering costs and benefits on industries as well as consumers. Industries that experienced the greatest decline in output were transport, construction and gold. Provinces that are closer to Gauteng and have a greater share of severely impacted industries experienced larger GDP and real income reductions. Mpumalanga's decrease in GDP was 17% greater than Gauteng's.     

Reassessing the Effectiveness of Industrial Policy in Indonesia: Can the Neoliberals be Wrong?

—The neoliberal interpretation of the Indonesian state suggests that industrial policy was incoherent, subject to rent-seeking, and irrelevant to Indonesia's post-1966 development success. A more nuanced micro-historical analysis of the state's interventions demonstrates that this oversimplification misses political elite objectives to overcome the “ekonomi kolonial” by using the power of the state and selective intervention to create a strong, integrated, diversified, and outward-oriented industrial economy (“ekonomi nasional”). Empirical analysis presented here suggests that Indonesia has largely achieved this objective. It also suggests that industrial policy has been more important than the neoliberal argument permits.     

Neo-liberal Korea and Still Developmentalist Japan: Myth or Reality?1

Abstract

In the “varieties of capitalism” debate, scholars have paid considerable attention to the question of whether Korea and Japan have left behind their interventionist political economy for neo-liberal reform. In this paper, we re-examine the scholarly consensus that Korea has become a neo-liberal state, while Japan has not changed much. On the basis of our comparison of the extent of the two countries’ neo-liberal reforms using the “business systems framework” developed by Witt, we demonstrate that neo-liberal reforms observed in Korea and Japan are not substantially different enough to warrant the view that the two countries have taken divergent paths of institutional development. With this finding, we call for further empirical study, including the development and use of more qualitative data. We suggest that the future direction research should take on this issue in order to make theoretical contributions to the existing literature on institutional change and continuity in “non-liberal” capitalist countries. We do this by offering some methods in which future researchers could identify necessary and sufficient causes of Korea's and Japan's neo-liberal (or non-neo-liberal) shift.     

Future policy directions for doi moi in Vietnam

During the 1980s Vietnam experienced a radical process of industrial and service sector liberalization, known as doi moi. The process was initiated by the government as a means for managing the collapse in overseas financial support occasioned by the demise of its principal supporter, the former Soviet Union. In this paper we focus on the currency and state owned enterprise (SOE) aspects of doi moi. The paper has several aims. First, we examine the effectiveness of the currency policy introduced under doi moi through which the Vietnamese government has attempted to stabilize the VNDong with the overall aim of reversing the dollarization process and restoring confidence in the domestic currency. Second, we discuss possible capital markets instruments which may now be suitable for government financing, such as the suitability of commodity indexed bonds, a debt conversion program and establishment of a private development trust fund. Third, we consider the macroeconomic implications of Vietnam's accession to ASEAN. Lastly, we make a number of recommendations for future macroeconomic policy in Vietnam.     

The Effect of Business Risk on Capital Structure of Indian Corporate Firms: Business Groups vs. Stand-alone Firms

Abstract

This study estimates the relationship between leverage and business risk for Indian corporate firms by applying semi-parametric regression method for three time points, namely 2001, 2007 and 2012. We observe that the relationship is non-linear for all the three measures of RISK in 2001 and 2012. Since we get different results for different measures of risk, we lay more emphasis on RISK2 as the better measure of risk here. From the graphical plots, we find that the relationship between leverage and RISK2 appears to be a polynomial of degree 5 or more. Thus, it invalidates the previous argument of a quadratic relationship between leverage and risk. We then check if the quadratic specification between leverage and risk, as proposed in the existing studies, is appropriate by applying Hardle and Mammen's test. We observe that the relationship varies over the measures of risks and it differs between group-affiliated firms and stand-alone firms. Moreover, the relationship changes over time. Thus, our findings raise questions about the predictions of Castanias, Kale et al. and others on the relationship between capital structure and business risk as a U-shaped one. We conclude that the generalization of a U-shaped relationship between capital structure and business risk is not true.     

Improving Auditors' Consideration of Evidence Contradicting Management's Estimate Assumptions

Auditors have difficulty evaluating the assumptions underlying management's estimates. One source of these problems is that auditors appear to dismiss evidence contradicting management's assumptions because their initial preference to support management's accounting biases their preliminary conclusions and, thus, their interpretation of evidence. We experimentally examine whether auditors with a balanced focus (i.e., a focus on documenting evidence that supports and contradicts their preliminary conclusion) are less likely to dismiss evidence that contradicts management's assumptions than auditors with a supporting focus (i.e., a focus on documenting evidence that supports their preliminary conclusion). We expect and find that, compared with auditors with a supporting focus, auditors with a balanced focus create documentation that is less dismissive of evidence contradicting management's estimate. Importantly, a balanced focus changes auditors' cognition and affects how auditors interpret contradicting evidence rather than merely increasing their documentation of this evidence. The effects of reduced dismissiveness persist to improve auditors' evaluations of a biased estimate and subsequent actions, improving audit quality in an important and difficult area.     

Ciskei's business reforms in the context of regional development∗

In the May edition of Development Southern Africa (Vol 2, No 2), four papers discussed various aspects of the taxreforms in Ciskei. The general conclusion was that the steps would most probably not greatly assist Ciskei's economic development, in fact the opposite could be true: that the steps would harm the country's economic development

In this reply, Dr DHM Bridgman does not react to any of the papers in particular, but states the case for Ciskei: why the steps were taken and in what frame of reference; what Ciskei's expectations are, and why the previous situation could not continue.     

Efficiency and Stability Issues in Monetary Policy

Abstract

The question of why some multinational corporations (MNCs) perform better than others is at the centre of the analysis of many international business disciplines and the subject of a never-ending debate of policy-makers. The dilemma of whether the MNC's organizational culture differs from home countries’ national culture is the subject of our research. We provide empirical evidence that MNCs’ national cultures shape and dominate MNCs’ organizational cultures with a direct impact on their performances. For the first time by using performance measurement techniques and reconstructing cultural distance indexes, we are providing empirical evidence of the impact of home country's national culture on MNCs’ performance.     

Japan's Policy Stance on East Asian Neo-Regionalism: From Being a “Reluctant”, to Becoming a “Proactive” State

Abstract

This article is a theoretically grounded empirical contribution aimed at shedding light on Japan's policy stance on East Asian neo-regionalism. It aims to examine the recent region-building process in East Asia. The dynamics in East Asia suggest that regional institutionalization, brought about by norm diffusion based on the idea of neo-regionalism, is likely to follow a progressive and evolutionary trajectory through the institutionalization of the Association of Southeast Asian Nation (ASEAN)?+?3 (South Korea, Japan and China). It provides a wide spectrum of regional-integrationist perspectives in order to offer as full a picture as possible of Japan's role in promoting regional integration in East Asia. The key finding of this article is that Japan has changed from a being “reluctant”, to becoming a “proactive” state in the context of regional collaboration in East Asia.     

The Effects of State Merit Aid Programs on Attendance at Elite Colleges

State merit aid programs have been found to reduce the likelihood that students attend college out of state. Using the U.S. News & World Report (USNWR) rankings of colleges and universities to measure college quality and Integrated Postsecondary Education Data System data to measure enrollment, we explore how this reduction in out‐of‐state enrollment differs by the academic quality of the institution. Our difference‐in‐differences results suggest that state merit aid programs do not induce students to forgo attending top 15 ranked schools. However, state merit aid does induce some students to forgo attending out‐of‐state schools ranked below the top 15 and shifts them toward lower quality in‐state schools, so that the net effect is a reduction in academic quality, as measured by USNWR. These effects may have long‐term implications for students' degree completion rates and labor market earnings.     

The Economics Olympics: Ranking U.S. Economics Departments Based on Prizes,Medals, and Other Awards

This study ranks the top 25 U.S. economics departments on the basis of four prestigious awards won/held by these departments' current faculty: the Nobel Prize in Economic Sciences, the John Bates Clark Medal, the American Economic Association's (AEA's) Distinguished Fellow Award, and the American Economic Association's Richard T. Ely Lecturer. Based on our methodology, the top economics department is affiliated with the University of Chicago. This distinction stems from its affiliation with six Nobel Prize winners, four Clark Medal winners, and two participants each in the AEA Distinguished Fellow and Richard T. Ely Lecturer categories.     

Is Economics Useful for Public Policy?

Economists have always played an important role in major public policy debates. Even so, I believe that the role of economists in these public policy discussions has often been misguided because it has typically relied upon “best practices,” stated in the form of “general guidelines” or even “universal principles.” However, “best practices” are not best if the specific situation does not conform with the assumptions that underlie the advice. So my first conclusion is a cautionary, and negative, one: Specific circumstances differ so profoundly across individuals, firms, markets, countries, and time that most any attempt to define “best practices” that apply in all circumstances will lead to profoundly misleading public policy recommendations. However, even if economics cannot identify “the” truth, it can often identify “a” truth. So my second conclusion is a more positive one: Economists should continue to develop multiple theories that inform public policies, but we should also focus our efforts on identifying and testing the critical assumptions that drive the results of these theories, recognizing that the validity of any assumptions will depend intimately on specific circumstances. I illustrate these two main conclusions with specific examples from my own work. I conclude with some “best practices” recommendations of my own, recognizing the obvious irony of such an effort.     

Children's marriage and parental subjective well-being: Evidence from China

The marriage of children is a milestone event in parenthood, while how parents' well-being evolves around the time children get married is limitedly understood. This paper examines the relationship between children's marriage and parents' subjective well-being. Using China Family Panel Studies (CFPS) data, we find that parental subjective well-being is positively associated with children's marriage. An examination of the underlying mechanisms shows that, first, children's marriage can significantly enhance parents' sense of security in old-age care and their confidence in the future. Second, the older the unmarried children are, the more anxious the parents who hold stronger traditional ideology will be. Third, parents will increase their consumption expenditure after their children get married; and compared with daughters, sons' marriages have a stronger effect on parental well-being. These findings reveal that parental economic pressure due to China's biased sex ratio and marriage squeeze is relieved after their children's marriage.     

A Note on a Framework for Valuation Ratios Based on Fundamentals*

Valuation ratios divide stock price by accounting metrics such as earnings, earnings growth, and book value. This study adapts the general valuation framework in Ohlson and Juettner-Nauroth (2005) and Ohlson (2005) to present a unified approach for developing valuation ratios based on fundamentals, referred to as fundamental valuation ratios. One starts with a valuation model that is driven by an accounting metric a and its abnormal growth, then divides the valuation model by a to get a fundamental valuation ratio. For any valuation ratio, one can find a corresponding fundamental valuation ratio, as long as the valuation model is based on the same metric a as the valuation ratio denominator.