Intra‐provincial Revenue Sharing and the Subnational Government's Fiscal Capacity in China: The Case of Zhejiang Province

This study investigates whether the tax‐sharing system has deteriorated the fiscal capacity of subnational governments by analyzing how fiscal revenues are divided between provincial and sub‐provincial governments. Our study of county‐level fiscal data from Zhejiang Province in China during 1994–2007 shows that intra‐provincial revenue‐sharing rules favor county governments in two ways: (i) they improve county governments ‘fiscal autonomy in terms of using their own revenues; and (ii) they enhance county governments ‘fiscal capacity through province‐to‐county general transfers. In addition, we find that intra‐provincial fiscal revenue‐sharing rules and transfers reduce fiscal disparity between counties.     

中国农村扶贫项目的目标定位

I. IntroductionHistorically, poverty is a rural phenomenon in China. The majority of the poor populationis still living in rural areas, although it is widely reported that the number of poor poeple hasdeclined dramatically since the end of 1978 when reform was initiated (The World Bank,2001; National Bureau of Statistics, NBS, 2001). The official estimate indicates that therewere 34 million of poor people in rural China in 1999 (NBS, 2001). However, it is argued thattheir dramatic reduct…     

基于量图分析法的新疆县域经济差异研究

新疆县域经济发展水平的空间差异十分显著,总体上,县域经济发展水平具有明显的从北向南递减的趋势。本文在综述国内区域经济差异分析方法的基础上,运用量图分析法。选取人均GDP、城镇化率、人均固定资产投资等10项指标,依据2011年数据将新疆83个县级行政区分为先进、中等、落后三种类型,并结合ArcGIS软件分析新疆县域经济发展水平的空间差异;通过2005年、2008年和2011年县域经济发展水平差异的对比分析,反映了差异变动的趋势,并解释了变动的原因。分析表明,新疆县域经济发展水平呈现北南梯级分布的空间特征,先进县域主要分布在天山北坡经济带,落后县域主要分布在南疆三地州,对口援疆政策的实施明显减少了落后县域的劣指标个数。以人均GDP反映的新疆县域经济绝对差异呈逐年扩大趋势,但扩大速度逐年放缓;相对差异在2005年-2008年间呈扩大趋势,在2008年-2011年间呈缩小趋势。可见,对口援疆是差异趋势改变的主要原因。     

Identifying the causal effect of alcohol abuse on the perpetration of intimate partner violence by men using a natural experiment

Intimate partner violence (IPV) is widespread and has substantial negative consequences. Researchers have documented a strong positive correlation between alcohol abuse and IPV. However, alcohol abuse is potentially endogenous to IPV. We deal with this problem by exploring a unique instrumental variable—the September 11 terrorist attack—in Wave III of the National Longitudinal Study of Adolescent Health. Ordinary least squares results confirm a strong positive correlation between alcohol abuse and IPV. However, our two‐stage least squares results are statistically insignificant. These results indicate that alcohol abuse might not have a causal effect on IPV and, therefore, have important policy implications.     

On Persistent Poverty in a Rich Country

We examine differences in income within the United States, and the regions of persistent poverty that have arisen, using a newly assembled county‐level data set linking 19th century Census data with contemporary data. We identify the roles of current differences in aggregate production technologies and factor endowments, together with contributions of historical institutions, culture, geography, and human capital. We allow for possible cross‐county factor mobility via a correlated random effects GMM estimator and find evidence of significant regional differences in production technologies. Our decompositions of the poor/nonpoor income gap suggest that at least three‐fourths of the gap is explained by differences in productive factors. Persistently poor counties are different (and poorer) primarily because they have lower levels of factors of production, not because they use the factors they have less efficiently. Together, historical and contemporary human capital explain over half of the overall income gap between persistently poor and nonpoor counties.     

Modern secondary education and economic performance: the introduction of the Gewerbeschule and Realschule in nineteenth‐century Bavaria†

Do new school types focusing on practical and business‐related knowledge lead to increased economic performance? To analyse this question, this article examines the introduction of two types of modern secondary education, the Gewerbeschule and its successor, the Realschule, in nineteenth‐century Bavaria. Since the opening of these schools is arguably endogenous—as it was mainly the large, prosperous cities that opened one—the estimated treatment effect capturing the economic influence of the Gewerbeschule/Realschule will lead to biased results. To alleviate this bias, propensity score matching is adopted to compare relatively similar counties with and without these schools. Using historical county‐level data on tax revenues, business formations, employment structure, and patent holdings, ordinary least squares regression analysis shows that the opening of a modern secondary school is in general positively associated with economic performance several years later.     

海西经济区县域发展水平空间差异分析

以海西经济区的144个县市为研究空间尺度单元,选取人均GDP等指标,利用因子分析法确定指标权重后结合ESDA分析其县域发展水平空间差异。结果表明：海西经济区县域经济发展在全局空间分布上具有较强的相关性,空间分布呈显著集聚效应,但在省域内分布不均衡,部分县市呈局部空间自相关,其中以温州市辖区为中心点呈现H-H型集聚,而围绕福建省的浙江省、江西省、广东省部分县域呈L-L型集聚,建议根据中心-外围理论以福建省为中心带动这些县域的经济发展。     

Breaking Bad in Bourbon Country: Does Alcohol Prohibition Encourage Methamphetamine Production?

This article examines the influence of local alcohol prohibition on the prevalence of methamphetamine labs. Using multiple sources of data for counties in Kentucky, we compare various measures of meth manufacturing in wet, moist, and dry counties. Our preferred estimates address the endogeneity of local alcohol policies by exploiting differences in counties' religious compositions between the 1930s, when most local-option votes took place, and recent years. Even controlling for current religious affiliations, religious composition following the end of national Prohibition strongly predicts current alcohol restrictions. We carefully examine the validity of our identifying assumptions, and consider identification under alternative assumptions. Our results suggest that the number of meth lab seizures in Kentucky would decrease by 35% if all counties became wet.     

The Determinants of China's Minimum Wage Rates

We use a highly disaggregated panel of macro data and minimum wages at the county level to investigate the processes behind minimum wage adjustments in China. Relying on random effects models, spatial econometrics techniques, and multilevel analyses, we document that a comparatively small number of economic variables – including the local price level and GDP per capita – are important determinants of minimum wage rates. Interactions between adjacent counties and counties of the same administrative type, and centralized mechanisms, particularly at the provincial level, also play an important role in explaining the variance in minimum wage rates across counties. Finally, we show that China's provinces are the key players for setting minimum wage rates and that, when they do so, they are not uniform in the way they weigh different economic variables.     

The effects of the Works Progress Administration's anti-malaria programs in Georgia 1932–1947

From 1900 to 1950, malaria rates declined rapidly in the southeast United States. At its peak, malaria infected over 30% of the population. Malaria declined over the period for several reasons: improvements in public infrastructure; development of new insecticides; improvements in agriculture that promoted drainage; increases in incomes; and changes in migration patterns. This paper focuses on public works constructed by the Works Progress Administration (WPA) during the 1930s and subsequent interventions during the 1940s. To estimate the relationship between these malaria programs and malaria rates, I construct a panel of annual county level malaria rates in Georgia from 1932 to 1947. Between 1932 and 1940 the malaria rate in counties that received WPA malaria projects fell from 25.9 deaths per 100,000 to 5.3 deaths per 100,000. The empirical estimates suggest that WPA malaria projects led to 9.1 fewer deaths per 100,000 or roughly 44% of the observed decline in treated counties. Additional public works constructed by the MCWA during World War II, and the introduction of DDT after 1945 completely eliminated malaria in Georgia by 1947.     

基于因子分析法的新疆县域经济竞争力实证分析

本文通过构建适合新疆县域经济竞争力的评价指标体系,运用因子分析方法,对2010年新疆85个县市的县域经济竞争力进行分析,得出各县市的综合竞争力得分,并根据得分将新疆县域经济划分为四类,且对不同类型县域经济进行评价。     

A test of prohibition's effect on alcohol production and consumption using crop yields

The effect of alcohol prohibition in the United States has been the subject of continuing debate. Due to a lack of data, one question that remains unanswered is the effect prohibition had on the actual production of alcohol. This article attempts to answer this question by estimating prohibition's impact on the yields of grains that constitute the principal inputs in alcohol production. Using a variety of data sources and exploiting the variation in timing of state prohibition law adoption, we estimate the effect of prohibition on several measures of crop production. Our preferred identification strategy compares contiguous counties in states with differing prohibition laws. Our findings suggest that state prohibition laws decreased the production of barley and may have increased the production of corn. Using these estimates, we calculate that prohibition decreased alcohol production, and by extension consumption, by at least 18 gallons per adult per year.     

百强县农产品全域电商发展模式及融合路径

中国百强县数量占全国县域经济单位总数的5.57％,2019年百强县地区生产总值总量占全国县域经济的26.60％.在脱贫攻坚决胜年和乡村振兴开局年,县域电商在高速发展的同时正面临物流、人才、品牌、资源等瓶颈限制,构建农产品全域电商发展模式需求愈发强烈.在探究农产品全域电商发展模式和融合路径时,选取百强县为对象,旨在全域电商构建的领域内打造领军县市,带动周围县市发展.农产品的全域电商发展需要采取以工促农的发展方式,推动农村一二三产业融合发展,丰富乡村经济业态,提升农民增收空间,这样才能有效破解县域电商的发展瓶颈进而构建起全域电商.     

Removing the “Hats of Poverty”: Effects of ending the national poverty county program on fiscal expenditures

This paper investigates the effect of the cancellation of China's program of “national poverty counties”—a place-based policy—on county-level fiscal expenditures. Our difference-in-differences results indicate that the cancellation reduces the county fiscal expenditure-to-GDP ratio by an average of 3.78%. To support a causal interpretation of these findings, we provide two plausible explanations, the reverse flypaper effect and the active/passive waste effect. Our findings survive the consideration of selection bias, omitted-variable bias, and spatial correlation. Policy implications of our findings are also discussed.     

School district consolidation: Market concentration and the scale‐efficiency tradeoff

Consolidation is often proposed as a strategy for increasing school district quality without increasing educational funding. However, if consolidation reduces competition in the local school market and reduces efficiency, any savings from exploiting economies of scale may be lost to increased inefficiency. We use a stochastic cost function to investigate these effects for districts in Texas. We find important economies of scale, but we also find that increased market concentration leads to increased cost inefficiency. Finally, we illustrate the practical importance of these two potentially offsetting factors in a simulation that considers consolidating Texas school districts to county‐level districts. We find that failure to consider the effect on competition can lead to large overestimates of the benefits of consolidation.     

Flood Fatalities in the United States: The Roles of Socioeconomic Factors and the National Flood Insurance Program

Flooding is the most frequent disaster type among all severe weather events in the United States. Over the 20‐year period from 1996 to 2015, a total of 107,743 floods resulted in 1563 fatalities and over $167 billion in damages. Climate models suggest that the risk of major flooding will increase in the coming years. In this article, we provide new analysis of the life‐saving role of the National Flood Insurance Program (NFIP) using county‐level data for the United States over the years 1996–2015. The integrated view of the physical, social, economic, and political elements of disaster vulnerability guides the empirical analysis. Our analysis indicates that people most affected by floods are those who have weaker economic and social bases; lower education levels and poor housing quality increase flood vulnerability. We also find that local government spending on public safety and welfare significantly reduces overall flood vulnerability. Importantly, our estimates present new evidence that ex ante floodplain management and mitigation efforts required for participation in the NFIP have played a vital role in reducing flood‐related fatalities.     

Second World War spending and local economic activity in US counties, 1939–58

Studies of the development of local economies often point to large‐scale Second World War military spending as a source of economic growth, even though spending declined sharply after demobilization. We examine the relationship between war spending per capita and the changes in economic activity in US counties between 1939 before the war and a period several years after the war. In the longer term counties receiving more war spending per capita during the war experienced greater population growth, but growth in per capita measures of economic activity showed little relationship with per capita war spending.     

Enforcement,Socioeconomic Diversity,and Tax Filing Compliance in the United States

In this article, we examine the determinants of tax filing compliance in the United States. We use county‐level data on non‐filing rates for the tax year 2000, obtained directly from the Internal Revenue Service. We include explanatory variables identified in the “rational compliance” framework, including an enforcement index against identified non‐filers, the audit rate of filers, and the average penalty rate for both filers and non‐filers. We also examine the role of socioeconomic diversity on tax compliance, testing whether within‐county heterogeneity in household income, language, race, and religion can help explain variation in non‐filing rates. We find that non‐filing is increasing with heterogeneity by race, although not by income or language, and that non‐filing is decreasing with heterogeneity by religious membership. As for enforcement variables, we find that non‐filing rates tend to fall with the enforcement index. Other variables have somewhat mixed results.     

The impact of New Deal expenditures on mobility during the Great Depression

Using county-level data on federal New Deal expenditures on public works and relief and Agricultural Adjustment Administration payments to farmers, this paper empirically examines the New Deal’s impact on inter-county migration from 1930 to 1940. We construct a net-migration measure for each county as the difference between the Census’s reported population change from 1930 to 1940 and the natural increase in population (births minus infant deaths minus non-infant deaths) over the same period. Our empirical approach accounts for both the simultaneity between New Deal allocations and migration and the geographic spillovers that likely resulted when economic activity in one county may have affected the migration decisions of people in neighboring counties. We find that greater spending on relief and public works was associated with significant migration into counties where such money was allocated. The introduction of our modern farm programs under the aegis of the Agricultural Adjustment Administration appears to have contributed to a net out-migration that sped the transition of people out of farming.     

Economic spillover effects in the Bohai Rim Region of China: Is the economic growth of coastal counties beneficial for the whole area?

This study uses panel data on the Bohai Rim Region of China to test for spatial autocorrelation, and measures economic spatial spillover effects with the space Durbin econometric model. We discuss whether the economic development of coastal counties benefits the whole area. To do this, we focus on the “distance from the coast” factor, which is influenced by transportation time. The results indicate the presence of significant spatial autocorrelation in the Bohai Rim Region. Further, economic spatial spillover effects exist in this region. “Distance from the coast” exerts a significantly negative impact on the local GDP per capita but a significantly positive impact on the GDP per capita of other districts. This means that the economic development of coastal counties does not benefit the whole region. “Value of exports” exerts a significantly positive influence on the local economy and no significant influence on other counties, while “foreign direct investment” exerts a significantly positive influence on the local economy and a significantly negative influence on other counties. “Number of employees in units” exerts a significantly positive influence on the local economy and a significantly negative influence on the other counties. The factors “primary industry's share in GDP” and “tertiary industry's share in GDP” influence the local economy positively, but the former exerts no significant influence on other counties and the latter exerts a negative influence on other counties. “Rate of fixed asset investment” influences the local economy negatively and has no significant effect on other counties. “Total retail sales of social consumer goods” has no significant influence on the local economy but a positive significant influence on the others. Finally, marine resource utilization and marine output can affect economic growth positively. On this basis, we propose policy suggestions for harmonious economic development in this region.