数字普惠金融的创业效应与收入不平等:数字鸿沟还是数字红利？

数字普惠金融与实体经济之间的关系受到学界广泛关注,但其究竟是普惠的数字红利还是金融领域的数字鸿沟,这是数字普惠金融快速发展中亟需回答的重要理论与现实问题。文章通过匹配宏观统计数据和微观调查数据,实证研究了数字普惠金融的发展对收入不平等的影响,并从创业效应这一渠道进行了机制分析。研究发现：数字普惠金融的发展总体上改善了收入不平等状况,而数字普惠金融的创业效应是影响收入不平等的重要渠道之一。进一步的中介效应分析表明,数字普惠金融的创业效应对收入不平等的影响存在异质性：数字普惠金融通过促进生存型创业从而改善了收入不平等,而数字普惠金融对机会型创业的促进却在一定程度上扩大了收入不平等。文章的研究结论对于理解数字普惠金融发展的正外部性以及如何缓解收入不平等提供了新的视角。     

Trade liberalization and income inequality: The case for Pakistan

Trade liberalization policies have been adopted by many developing countries to increase economic growth and reduce poverty. While the positive relationship between trade liberalization and economic growth is generally well accepted, the impact of trade liberalization on poverty and income inequality is still unclear. The objective of this paper is to use real data and real trade agreements of the state of Pakistan, to examine the predictions made by trade models about the impact of trade liberalization on income inequality. To illustrate, the impacts of several alternative bilateral and regional free trade agreements are simulated on household income and income inequality in Pakistan. The results show that trade liberalization does not always lead to a decline in income inequality in the short run. Trade agreements that do improve income equality, favor agriculture and often hinge on a decline in urban and non-farm household income. In the long run, changes in income equality are more positive, suggesting that efforts might best be applied towards improving the mobility of labor and capital.     

贸易自由化对我国地区收入不平等的影响:来自中国的经验证据

文章基于协整的VAR模型从实证的角度研究了我国地区收入不平等与贸易自由化之间的长期均衡和短期动态关系。研究发现：（1）地区收入不平等、贸易自由化与经济增长之间存在长期均衡关系,贸易自由化和经济增长对于关注参数而言是弱外生变量;（2）贸易自由化在长期内减缓了我国地区收入不平等程度,但在短期内却导致了我国地区收入不平等程度的上升;（3）经济增长长期内趋于提高了我国地区收入不平等程度,但短期的影响方向不确定;（4）地区收入不平等是一个随机游走过程,不是一个含有结构突变的趋势平稳过程。     

Finance and Income Inequality: What Do the Data Tell Us?

Although there are distinct conjectures about the relationship between finance and income inequality, little empirical research compares their explanatory power. We examine the relationship between finance and income inequality for 83 countries between 1960 and 1995. Because financial development might be endogenous, we use instruments from the literature on law, finance, and growth to control for this. Our results suggest that, in the long run, inequality is less when financial development is greater, consistent with Galor and Zeira (1993) and Banerjee and Newman (1993). Although the results also suggest that inequality might increase as financial sector development increases at very low levels of financial sector development, as suggested by Greenwood and Jovanovic (1990), this result is not robust. We reject the hypothesis that financial development benefits only the rich. Our results thus suggest that in addition to improving growth, financial development also reduces inequality.     

影响资本账户开放策略选择的因素——金融稳定的视角

金融稳定下影响资本账户开放策略选择的关联因素分析是目前国内外文献的研究热点。本文构建一个包含资本账户开放、金融稳定、国内储蓄率、对外债务履约状况、公众对金融体系的信心、金融深化以及消费不均等程度等诸多因素组成的系统分析框架,采用理论模型和实证方法探讨影响新兴市场经济体金融开放的相关因素。综合研究成果表明,资本账户开放在某种程度上会导致金融风险的上升。一国较低的储蓄率以及对外债务状况的恶化则会加剧开放引致的金融风险,而金融深化与消费水平不均等程度的改善以及公众对金融体系信心的提升在一定程度上都会有效增强开放进程中经济体的金融稳定程度,进而实现占优策略均衡。值得注意的是,本文提出了中国存在针对金融开放进程进行重新再思考的现实必要性。     

Trade openness and income inequality in China and the SAARC Region

The paper empirically examines the effects of trade liberalisation on income inequality in China and the South Asian Association for Regional Cooperation countries. Panel data analysis is conducted for the period of 1973 to 2012. The results show that liberal trade policies have increased income inequality in these countries. These results are robust to alternative liberalisation measures. The control variables used have differing effects on income distribution. Per capita income has an increasing effect on income inequality, while education, financial development, financial openness, democracy, and government size are shown to reduce income inequality. These outcomes can be expected to have important policy implications for the use of trade liberalisation in these countries.     

Structural Changes and Regional Income Inequality in Indonesia: A Bidimensional Decomposition Analysis*

Using the bidimensional decomposition method of a population‐weighted coefficient of variation, this paper analyzes the changes in the determinants of interprovincial income inequality associated with structural changes in Indonesia from 1983 to 2004. The method unifies two inequality decompositions by regional groups and gross regional product components (industrial sectors) and, therefore, enables us to assess the contributions of gross regional product components to within‐region and between‐region inequalities, as well as to overall inequality. As the share of mining has decreased, the spatial distribution of manufacturing has played a more important role in the inequality of Sumatra and Kalimantan, while the primacy of Jakarta, with strong urbanization economies, facilitated by globalization and trade and financial liberalization, has determined much of the Java–Bali region's inequality and, therefore, overall inequality in Indonesia.     

Testing the impact of financial inclusion on income convergence: Empirical evidence from Nigeria

Financial inclusion, as a key pillar for inclusive development, has long been considered as an important instrument for reducing poverty and income inequality. However, the income convergence effect of financial inclusion remains only partially explored. Using longitudinal data covering three survey waves on Nigerian households, this study explores the potential of financial inclusion as an instrument for reducing income disparity. After controlling for the endogeneity issues, the results of instrumental variable linear and quantile regressions consistently show a strong nexus between financial inclusion and per capita income. This positive effect is experienced by all households regardless of income distribution. The decomposition results reveal that ab initio, financial inclusion resulted in income divergence leading to widening inequality across the households with various income distributions. However, the income convergence started from the middle to the higher income household categories, with the lowest income lagging behind in the second wave. The lowest income households eventually converged in the data of the third wave. In this sense, it can be argued that financial inclusion could play an important role in the reduction of income inequality.     

The Washington Consensus: A post-mortem

After guiding development policies for nearly 20 years, the “Washington Consensus” lies in shambles. Although selected components remain relevant for development policies around the world, some specifics of the broader policy “package” and, more generally, the concept of a standardized package of policies applicable to all developing countries has clearly been discredited.Criticism has been directed at the assumed link from economic liberalization of international trade and financial flows to more rapid economic growth. Apart from a handful of developing countries, admittedly including some large and important ones, most of the world saw little of the promised economic benefit from widespread and on-going trade and financial liberalization, initially. Many countries actually regressed, when evaluated against broader socio-economic development goals, including income inequality. We conclude that differences in initial conditions (history, culture, geography and levels of industrial and institutional development) preclude any single development policy package from being universally effective.     

Financial openness,financial sector development,and income inequality: With an extensive set of pull and push factors

This paper investigates the impact of financial openness on financial sector development and income inequality. We use the de jure and de facto measures of financial openness across 78 countries from 1980 to 2019. By employing a system generalized method of moments (GMM) with 5-year averaged data and a novel push and pull modeling framework, we obtain three key results. First, the de jure measure of financial openness exacerbates income inequality and is sensitive to banking crises and conflict intensity. Second, the de facto measure spurs stock value traded in emerging market economies (EMEs) and declines domestic credit in Africa. Third, the interaction between de facto measures with schooling and governance factors affects financial sector development and income inequality. We highlighted that the mere usage of the de jure measure and their interaction is incorrect. The key implication is that valuable information about the real impact of openness can be obtained from the de facto measures and their interaction with favorable macroeconomic fundamentals, governance factors, and adverse nonpolicy factors.     

Macroeconomic Volatility, Trade and Financial Liberalization in Africa

This paper examines the effects of financial and trade liberalization on growth volatility of real output and consumption in Africa. Our results suggest trade liberalization is associated with greater output and consumption growth volatility while financial liberalization increases the efficacy of consumption smoothing and stabilizes income and consumption growth. In addition, we find financial market depth and institutional quality operate jointly with trade and financial openness to reduce volatility in output and consumption growth. There is also evidence that good institutions which foster low inflation levels and volatility promote consumption and output growth stability.     

信贷约束下的农村金融与农村收入分配关系研究

文章建立了一个简单的两期生命周期模型来考察在信贷约束下农村金融与农村收入分配不平等的作用机制。模型结论表明,在存在农村信贷约束的情况下,农村金融的发展能否起到缩小农村居民贫富差距的作用,主要取决于农业投资回报率、农村金融贷款利率和农户进入农村金融市场的成本对比：在其他条件不变的情况下,受农村金融支持的农业投资回报率越高,农村金融贷款利率越低,农户进入农村金融市场的成本越低,则农村金融的发展越有利于缩小农村居民的贫富差距。     

Financial inclusion as a pathway to welfare enhancement and income equality: Micro-level evidence from Nigeria

While the importance of financial inclusion as a means of poverty and income inequality reduction has long been recognised, the paths to welfare enhancement and income equality through financial inclusion remain partially acknowledged. Using micro-level data on 1 750 rural Nigerian households, this study examines the finance-welfare nexus by constructing a multi-variable financial inclusion index. The results first show that financial inclusion exerts a strong positive influence on household welfare. However, the decomposition analysis shows that middle- and high-income households gain more from financial inclusion in comparison to the targeted low-income households. Second, informal livelihood strategies, such as environmental resource extraction, crops, and livestock production, revealed reduced welfare disparities across income distributions. Therefore, for financial inclusion to alleviate welfare inequality and ensure income convergence, rural financial markets must be redesigned to allow wider access to credit, specifically for low-income and vulnerable households.     

全球金融危机:收入分配视角的解读

第三波全球化深刻地影响了全球收入分配的格局。在各个国家内部,收入的不平等程度在加深。发达国家收入不平等导致了宏观经济的金融化和消费者的债务积累。在积极参与全球化进程的新兴工业化国家中,不平等程度的加大压制了国内需求。为了应对金融全球化带来的风险,这些积极参与全球化进程的发展中国家或主动或被动地积累了庞大的外汇储备,从而间接地为发达国家的消费者提供债务融资。这种局面本质上就是一种无法持续的全球化。伴随着美国等发达国家房地产泡沫的破灭,美国次贷危机传导到全世界,演变成全球金融危机。     

Why has income inequality in Thailand increased?: An analysis using surveys from 1975 to 1998

This paper identifies the determinants of income inequality in Thailand, which increased between 1975 and 1998. Our regression results strongly suggest the significance of agricultural factors. We also obtain some limited evidence that sectoral factors, financial development, and education level disparities play a roughly equally important role in explaining inequality changes in Thailand.     

Financial Liberalization Policies and Economic Growth: Panel Data Evidence from Sub‐Saharan Africa

Abstract: The paper conducts an empirical investigation into the effects of financial liberalization policies on the growth of 19 countries in sub‐Saharan Africa (SSA). Two indexes are constructed which measure the gradual progression and institutional changes involved in financial liberalization. Because these indexes track specific financial liberalization policies, they provide better measures of financial liberalization than the indicators of financial development often used in the literature. Panel data estimates show a significant positive relationship between economic growth and financial liberalization policies. Our results are robust to alternative specifications of the model, and also across slow‐ and fast‐growing countries.     

江苏农村金融发展与农民收入的关系研究

回顾农村金融发展理论和农民收入增长理论。对江苏农村金融发展与农民收入进行格兰杰因果关系检验,发现农村金融是农民收入的格兰杰原因,而农民收入不是农村金融发展的格兰杰原因。这说明农村金融发展能促进农民收入增长。通过建立截面数据的一元回归方程得出不同区域的农民收入标准值,进而分析金融发展对收入促进的区域差异。     

Financial Liberalization and Stock Market Efficiency: Causality Analysis of Emerging Markets

This paper studies the long- and short-run relationship between financial liberalization and stock market efficiency. It expands the extant body of knowledge by investigating Granger causality relationship applying mean group, common correlated effect mean group and common correlated effect pooled estimator to balanced panel data for 27 emerging markets over the period 1996–2011. We find evidence of financial liberalization Granger causes stock market efficiency, which is consistent with liberalization leads to efficiency hypothesis. Subsequently, our work makes a fresh contribution to the literature by focusing on informational efficiency of stock markets rather than financial development. Furthermore, we find that a negative long-term relationship between financial liberalization and stock return autocorrelation coexists with a positive short-term relationship between the two. The findings that financial liberalization, which has a deteriorated effect on stock market efficiency in the short-run, but positive impact in the long-run, allow us to draw an analogy similar to the J-curve hypothesis.     

Long‐term trends in economic inequality: lessons from colonial Botswana, 1921–74

This article contributes to the growing literature on colonial legacies influencing long‐term development. It focuses on Botswana, a case where the post‐independence diamond‐led economy has been considered an economic success story, despite its high levels of inequality. Here it is argued that this pathway of rapid resource‐driven growth combined with increasing socio‐economic inequality had already started during the time of the colonial cattle economy, and that this older case is equally relevant for understanding long‐term growth‐inequality trends in Botswana and other natural‐resource‐dependent economies. Six social tables, covering the period 1921 to 1974, are constructed using colonial archives, government statistics, and anthropological records. Based on the social tables, income inequality is estimated in the colonial and early post‐independence eras, capturing both the formal and informal sectors of the economy. The article demonstrates how the creation of a cattle export sector in the 1930s brought new opportunities to access export incomes, and how this led to a polarization in cattle holdings and increasing income inequalities. Further, with the expansion of colonial administration, government wages forged ahead, increasing income inequality and causing a growing income divide between public and private formal employment.     

收入分配差距对经济增长的影响：文献述评

收入分配差距与经济增长的关系一直是经济学界关注的研究领域。基于收入分配差距对经济增长影响效应的研究,主要集中在收入分配差距是否对经济增长有害的讨论以及收入分配差距影响经济增长的作用机制上。文章分别从这两方面对该领域的核心文献进行梳理,并对已有文献进行简评,提出了进一步研究的方向。