WHEN DO VERTICAL RESTRAINTS HARM COMPETITION? THE ECONOMICS‐BASED APPROACH AND ITS APPLICATION IN THE BATSA CASE

An “effects‐based” or “economics‐based” approach to competition policy requires a theory of harm that causally links a business practice and its allegedly anti‐competitive effects and also weighs anti competitive effects against the pro‐competitive effects of the practice. This implies a shift away from per se prohibitions of certain practices towards case‐by‐case analysis – a move that has been hotly debated, especially in Europe. Using a case study of the recently concluded British American Tobacco case, we study the core features of an effects‐based approach to vertical restraints. We find the approach followed in the British American Tobacco South Africa case generally consistent with an effects‐based analysis, but highlight some limitations.     

CAN VIETNAM ACHIEVE THE MILLENNIUM DEVELOPMENT GOAL ON POVERTY REDUCTION IN HIGH INFLATION AND ECONOMIC STAGNATION?

An important aspect of the Millennium Development Goals (MDGs) to which Vietnam is committed is to reduce overall and food poverty. Although Vietnam has achieved remarkable reductions in poverty during recent years, Vietnam may not achieve its MDGs on poverty reduction because of high inflation and economic stagnation. This paper uses three recent Vietnam Household Living Standard Surveys (VHLSSs), in 2002, 2004, and 2006, to forecast poverty in 2008 and 2010 to examine whether Vietnam can achieve its MDGs on poverty reduction. The forecast takes into account high inflation in 2008 and economic stagnation during 2008–09. It is found that Vietnam may be able to achieve its MDGs on reduction of overall poverty; however, the MDGs on food poverty reduction may not be achieved.     

ARE PRIVATE TRANSFERS ALTRUISTICALLY MOTIVATED? THE CASE OF THE REPUBLIC OF KOREA BEFORE AND DURING THE FINANCIAL CRISIS

Using household panel data from Korea for 1995–98, this paper shows that private transfers of Korean households were altruistically motivated. Although the altruistic motive of households seemed to be reinforced during the financial crisis, the amount of private transfers was still not sufficient to support households living in urban areas. Also, there had been a strong crowding‐out relation between private and public transfers. This suggests that the Korean government should have designed its public transfer scheme carefully in order to improve the effectiveness and efficiency of its social safety net programs.     

THE EMPLOYER SIZE-WAGE EFFECT: CAN DYNAMIC MONOPSONY PROVIDE AN EXPLANATION?

In this paper we argue that a dynamic monopsony model (basedon labour market frictions) predicts a positive relationshipbetween wages and employer size, but also that the effect willbe larger in the non-union sector than in the union sector,and larger for women than for men. We examine evidence on theemployer size-wage effect using several microeconomic data sources,and find it to be generally consistent with these predictions.After examining other theoretical explanations, our conclusionis that at least part of the employer size-wage effect is aresult of monopsony power in the labour market.     

THE CAMBRIDGE CONTROVERSIES: OLD WAYS AND NEW HORIZONS--OR DEAD END?

‘[T]he established critics of a theory have nearly asmuch interest in the survival of the theory they criticize asits supporters; for when it is abandoned they are transportedfrom the exciting forefront of current scientific debate toa dignified but unexciting position in the museum of the historyof the subject’ (Nuti [1974, p. 364]). ‘If anything explains the heat of debates in growth [andcapital] theory, it is the difficulty thinkers in the scholastictradition have in appreciating that, for workers in the scientifictradition, it makes sense to entertain a model and use it withoutbeing committed to it; while the scientists cannot imagine whymere models should be the object of passion’ (Mirrlees[1973, p. xxi]).     

WILL THE MARKET KEEP BRAZIL LIT UP? OWNERSHIP AND MARKET STRUCTURAL CHANGES IN THE ELECTRIC POWER SECTOR

After achieving significant success until the 1970s, the Brazilian electric power sector stalled due to financial problems. The government promoted a shift toward a private ownership model and tried to entrust the market with creating a stable and efficient energy supply. However, the energy crisis highlighted the difficulties in this transition. This paper points out that the uncertainty inherent in the market‐based model increased information rent for the private companies and complicated the post‐privatization expansion scenario. Privatization driven by macroeconomic problems should be carefully reexamined, especially for public utilities with strong natural monopoly characteristics, since markets tend to fail to supply the socially optimal supply, thus directly affecting people's lives.     

HONG KONG'S INFLATION AND DEFLATION UNDER THE US DOLLAR PEG: THE BALASSA-SAMUELSON EFFECT OR EXPORT PRICE SHOCKS?

Hong Kong's US dollar peg, adopted in 1983, has failed to deliver price stability. Hong Kong experienced high inflation before the Asian financial crisis and prolonged deflation after it. The annual rate of inflation (GDP-deflator based) was 7.4% in the first period (1985–97) and −2.0% in the second (1998–2007). There was no clear trend for the inflation rate to converge to the US level. The nominal anchor via a fixed exchange rate in Hong Kong had an upward and downward drift in the order of 4% from the US inflation rate, casting doubt on the anchor's efficacy. Despite Hong Kong's high output growth relative to that of the United States, the Balassa-Samuelson effect was not the main factor behind the pre-Asian crisis inflation. Price shocks in service exports played a major role in Hong Kong's general prices through the two periods.     

THE ORDINAL AND CARDINAL JUDGMENT OF SOCIAL WELFARE CHANGES IN SINGAPORE, 1982?99

This paper analyzes the changes in social welfare in Singapore using both cardinal and ordinal measures. Labour Force Survey data published by the Manpower Research and Statistics, Department of the Ministry of Manpower, Singapore are used. It is observed with the use of Lorenz dominance technique that social welfare in Singapore during 1999 is less than in 1991 while an unambiguous conclusion cannot be made on the welfare ranking of 1982 and 1991 or of 1982 and 1999. According to the generalized Lorenz dominance, 1999 ranks first; however, this criterion is also unable to make any unambiguous ranking between 1982 and 1991. The ranking based on Sen social welfare function shows a continuous increase in the social welfare in Singapore. But when a more general social welfare function is used a different ordering might occur.     

HOW LARGE IS THE PRIVATE SECTOR IN AFRICA? EVIDENCE FROM NATIONAL ACCOUNTS AND LABOUR MARKETS

In recent years, the private sector has been recognised as a key engine of Africa's economic development. Yet, very little is known about its size and characteristics. We present novel estimates for 50 African countries and show that the private sector accounts for about two thirds of total investments, four fifths of total consumption and three fourths of total credit. Countries with small private sectors include a sample of oil exporters and some of the poorest countries in the continent. Surprisingly, the size of the private sector does not appear to be significantly correlated with growth performance. Labour market data reinforce the idea of a large private sector, which provides about 90% of total employment opportunities. However, most of this labour is informal and characterised by low productivity: permanent wage jobs in the private sector account on average for only 10% of total employment. South Africa is the notable exception, with formal wage employment in the private sector representing 46% of total employment. Finally, we find evidence of negative private sector earning premiums (?13% on the average), suggesting that market distortions abound. These are likely to prevent the efficient allocation of human resources and to reduce the overall productivity of the African economies.     

‘METALLIC NERVES’: SAN FRANCISCO AND ITS HINTERLAND DURING AND AFTER THE GOLD RUSH

As the gateway to the Californian goldfields, San Francisco experienced a demographic shock that had a lasting impact on its economy. Some writers see San Francisco's growth as having a parasitic influence on the city's hinterland through the anti-competitive behaviour of some corporations and the destruction of natural resources. I argue that San Francisco generated more productive external effects through the formation of human and social capital in the city itself, and by investment in further resource development elsewhere in California.     

AN INDUSTRIOUS REVOLUTION IN AN EAST ASIAN MARKET ECONOMY? TOKUGAWA JAPAN AND IMPLICATIONS FOR THE GREAT DIVERGENCE

This paper addresses a question raised by Jan de Vries' on the relationship between industriousness and the rise of the market in East Asia. Was the growing industriousness in Tokugawa Japan, as de Vries suggests, a substitute ‘for the absence of markets’? The examination refers to two versions of Chayanov's peasant farm model and their empirical relevance to the Tokugawa agrarian history, with special reference to the formation of labour‐intensive peasant farming (Akira Hayami's version of an industrious revolution), product specialisation, and the markets for production factors, land, and labour. Its implications for the Great Divergence debate are also discussed.     

CAN A RULE‐BASED MONETARY POLICY FRAMEWORK WORK IN A DEVELOPING COUNTRY? THE CASE OF YEMEN

Monetary policy in Yemen is largely rudimentary and ad hoc in nature. The Central Bank of Yemen's (CBY) approach has been based on discretionary targeting of broad money without any clear target to anchor inflation expectations. This paper argues in favor of a new formal monetary policy framework for Yemen emphasizing a proactive and rule‐based approach with a greater direct focus on price stability in the context of a flexible management of the exchange rate. Although, as in many developing countries, institutional capacity is a concern, adopting a more formal framework could impel the kind of changes that are required to strengthen the ability of the CBY in achieving low and stable rates of inflation over the medium term.     

CAN TUNISIA MOVE TO INFLATION TARGETING?

Inflation targeting has become an alternative monetary strategy that has been followed by many industrial and emerging countries. This study considers whether the adoption of inflation targeting would be relevant for Tunisia. More specifically, this paper aims at checking whether the necessary conditions for the successful implementation of such a strategy are fulfilled or not. It is found that fiscal dominance does not constitute the main hindrance to the adoption of inflation targeting. Other impediments have been identified, especially a weak financial system in general, the unsound and fragile banking system in particular, and the glaring lack of knowledge about the monetary transmission mechanism. Furthermore, it has been pointed out that if Tunisian monetary authorities continue to carry out the present exchange rate regime, namely, the constant real exchange rate rule, an inflation targeting regime will not be sufficient to properly contain the inflation pressures caused by demand shocks.