Banking in Central and Eastern Europe

MOCT-MOST: Economic Policy in Transitional Economies -     

现代中央银行政策:理论、挑战与重构

现代中央银行制度是一国宏观经济治理的重要内容,现代中央银行政策是现代中央银行制度及功能的主要体现。中央银行在演变过程中逐渐具备了为政府提供贷款、货币发行、最后贷款人、制定货币政策、制定宏观审慎政策等现代中央银行的功能。现代中央银行政策作为现代中央银行制度的核心构成,其理论框架主要包括最终目标、操作目标、政策工具、传导机制等。由于现代中央银行政策具有目标多元、工具复杂、从工具到目标间接传导等特征,因此提高政策精准度至关重要。中国构建了较为完整的现代中央银行政策框架,但在金融适度分权改革环境下,地方政府、企业、银行、居民等市场主体的行为选择使现有的中央银行政策需要进一步改进和完善,尤其是需要提高政策的精准性,包括提高政策基准变量计算的精准性,提高货币政策工具和宏观审慎政策工具的精准性,提高"双支柱"政策与财政政策、产业政策、国际金融政策等政策工具组合的精准性。     

Foreign Direct Investment and Enterprise Restructuring in Central Europe

Foreign direct investment is at the forefront of economic policy decisions in Central Europe, as it is expected to accelerate enterprise restructuring and aid in the successful transition to a market economy. This paper contains a panel data study of the effects of FDI in 11 different manufacturing sectors within three Central European economies: Hungary, Poland and the Czech Republic. We find evidence that FDI has increased labour productivity levels in most manufacturing sectors. We are able to differentiate between sectors with a high elasticity of substitution between labour and capital and those that are inelastic. We have also presented evidence to support the theory that the impact on labour productivity is predominantly due to the intangible assets introduced by foreign firms, rather than simply the fixed capital investment associated with FDI.     

Restructuring outcomes and the evolution of ownership patterns in Central and Eastern Europe

This paper begins from the proposition that ‘deep restructuring’ requires both finance and managerial expertise. It addresses the question of how this second stage of enterprise restructuring will come about in the majority of state-owned or former state-owned firms that are not owned by foreigners. In particular, it seeks to identify how the initial post-privatization ownership and control structure impinges on the likelihood that deep restructuring takes place. Conclusions for the design of privatization policy are drawn. The initial post-privatization ownership structures in the Visegrad countries and Russia are surveyed along with evidence of the transfer of ownership from insiders to outsiders.     

Production Efficiency in the South African Banking Sector: A Stochastic Analysis

Econometric estimates of the level of efficiency at bank branches are likely to provide detailed insight into the overall level of efficiency in banking. Therefore this paper uses Bayesian stochastic frontier analysis to assess the production efficiency of 61 bank branches in the nine provinces of the Republic of South Africa. We find that every branch is operating at increasing returns to scale and that the level of production efficiency of bank branches is lower than it could be. We also find that at current levels of output, on average, bank branches can reduce their costs by about 17% if they improve the level of efficiency. In addition, we find that Gauteng Province has the lowest average level of returns to scale, while the Free State Province has the highest average level of the nine provinces. In addition, via estimates of the posterior mean for shares and price elasticities, we find that the price of capital is the largest predicted proportion of costs. These findings suggest that bank branches could also obtain cost reductions by increasing the level of output. Regulatory policy reforms and competitive incentives to enable banks to meet this objective should be encouraged.     

Inefficiency in the Spanish Cooperative Banking Sector

This paper researches X-inefficiency and scale economies in Spanish cooperative banking between 1988 and 1996, using the stochastic cost frontier methodology. The Translog cost function, with three outputs and three inputs, is used to measure X-inefficiencies across time and size. During this period of time there is no important reduction in inefficiency levels, so deregulation and internationalization has little effect on the Spanish cooperative banking market. We can see that large cooperative banks are less inefficient than small ones, indicating that it would be convenient to increase the size of these kinds of banks in order to reduce inefficiencies in this sector. We also find scale economies during this period.     

A Dynamic General Equilibrium Model with Technological Innovations in the Banking Sector

Received November 2, 2001; revised version received July 15, 2002 Published online: April 30, 2003 I have received helpful comments from Alan J. Sutherland, Peter N. Smith, Michael R. Wickens, Morten O. Ravn, John P. Hutton and an anonymous referee. They are in no way responsible for my interpretations or any errors that the paper may contain.     

Depositor Discipline in the Banking Sector in India: An Empirical Investigation

Journal of Quantitative Economics - The paper traces the determinants of depositor discipline in Indian banking. Using annual data on commercial banks covering the period 1996 to 2003, the findings...     

Estimating Market Power in the South African Banking Sector

Indicators of market power can be ambiguous because cost economies associated with scale and not market imperfections may influence results. This article illustrates that without direct measures of concentration, estimates of costs, scale economies and profitability can be used to identify market power in banking. Secondly, via this method, econometric estimates provide meaningful evidence of market power in the South African banking sector over the study sample period (1979–1998). A reasonable conclusion is that while industrial structure is important, careful consideration needs to be given to cost economies and profitability when assessing market power. In addition, there is a need to consider appropriate policy to reduce market power in banking in South Africa.     

Restructuring the Innovation Capacity of the Business Sector in Estonia: Business Survey Result

The growth prospects of the Estonian economy depend on transforming the former 'socialist' industrial R&D into competitive business-sector innovation activities, establishing interactions between firms and other research units, and accelerating international diffusion. An additional task, specific for a transition country, is intensive utilization of the inherited human capital. The results of a business survey conducted in Tallinn in the summer of 1996 indicate that favourable restructuring of industrial R&D and the development of new innovation capacities are indeed taking place. The regression models indicate, however, that while the results seem to be mostly successful, some detailed support is needed. Firstly, further qualitative changes seem to be necessary in the state-owned and privatized electronics firms. And secondly, newly emerging firms need easier access to the capital market and management expertise.     

Regulatory Policy and the Efficiency of the Banking Sector in Australia

This paper examines the technical efficiency of Australian banks during the post‐Wallis period (1997–2005). The results based on data envelopment analysis reveal that the extent of technical efficiency varies across the banks and over the years. The National Australia Bank, Commonwealth Bank and Macquarie Bank are found to be technically efficient, whereas Adelaide Bank, the Bank of Queensland and Westpac Bank are found to be prominently inefficient. Technical efficiency is the lowest among small banks and has declined over time largely due to deterioration in scale efficiency. Medium‐sized banks have outperformed both the small and large banks in terms of efficiency improvements. Some insights into the debate over the removal of the ‘four‐pillar’ policy are provided.     

银行业综合化经营研究

首先通过回顾国内外银行综合化经营的主要文献,然后构建了银行综合化经营的理论研究框架,并进一步对美国银行业综合化经营与总收益的关系做了OLS回归、协整、脉冲响应以及方差分解分析。研究发现:综合化指标、传统业务收益增幅、银行规模、资本结构均与总收益之间存在正相关关系,且存在长期均衡的关系;脉冲响应分析结果表明:在第1-9期、第18-24期,美国银行业综合化指标对银行业总收益的冲击为正,第10-17期,对银行业总收益的冲击为负;综合化指标对美国银行业总收益的贡献率最大,其次是银行规模,然后是传统业务收益增幅,资本结构的贡献率最小。     

Relevance of the EU Banking Sector to Economic Growth

Using panel estimates and a sample including all 28 European Union (EU) countries, this paper seeks to improve upon the existing literature with empirical evidence on the role that banking institutions can play in promoting economic growth. Banking sector performance is proxied by relevant operational, capital, liquidity and asset quality financial ratios. Economic growth is represented by the annual gross domestic product (GDP) growth rate. The estimations take into account the recent international financial crisis and consider three panels: one for the time period 1998–2012, a second one for the years before the crisis (1998–2006) and another for the subinterval 2007–2012. The results allow us to draw conclusions not only about the importance of the various financial ratios to economic growth but also regarding reactions to the recent crisis.     

Banking Sector Performance in Latin America: Market Power versus Efficiency

Since the mid‐1990s the banking sector in the Latin American emerging markets has experienced profound changes due to financial liberalization, a significant increase in foreign investments, and greater merger activities often occurring following financial crises. The wave of consolidation and the rapid increase in market concentration that took place in most countries has generated concerns about the rise in banks' market power and its potential effects on consumers. This paper advances the existing literature by testing the market power (Structure–Conduct–Performance and Relative Market Power) and efficient structure (X‐ and scale efficiency) hypotheses for a sample of over 2500 bank observations in nine Latin American countries over 1997–2005. We use the Data Envelopment Analysis technique to obtain reliable efficiency measures. We produce evidence supporting the efficient structure hypotheses. The findings are particularly robust for the largest banking markets in the region, namely Brazil, Argentina, and Chile. Finally, capital ratios and bank size seem to be among the most important factors in explaining higher than normal profits for Latin American banks.     

Tax Policy and Tax Administration in Russia: The Case of the Banking Sector

The 'informal' sector of an economy is generally seen as a private sphere, where agents seek to escape the reach of the state and, in particular, the tax organs. However, given the weakness of the Russian state and the enormous scale of informal economic activity, the fiscal authorities try to cope, at least in part, by adopting informal strategies of their own. This paper aims to deepen our understanding of how this informal fiscal system actually works. While the analysis here focuses on the banking system, its implications for tax and accounting reform extend far beyond the banking sector.