The Penn Square Bank failure: Effect on commercial bank security returns — a note

In this paper, we apply standard event methodology to test the effect of the Penn Square Bank failure on the daily returns of three groups of bank holding companies. During the 75-day event period, upstream banks which had Penn Square loan participations faced nearly continual declines in daily returns; banks in the same economic region followed a pattern of less severe but continuously declining returns; while returns for banks outside the region were not significantly affected. We conclude that the market viewed the Penn Square failure as an isolated event which did not significantly affect banks away from regional economic influences.     

PENN SQUARE,PROBLEM LOANS,AND INSOLVENCY RISK

This paper investigates the influence of the failure of Penn Square Bank of Oklahoma City on stock prices within the banking industry. This influence is compared to the results of previous studies of the failures of Franklin National Bank of New York and United States National Bank of San Diego. While each of these earlier studies finds only a transitory impact on bank securities, this paper finds evidence of a structural change in the pricing mechanism for bank stocks after the Penn Square failure.     

中央银行沟通的金融市场响应──基于股票市场的事件研究

本文使用事件研究法分析我国中央银行沟通行为对股票价格走势的影响。研究发现,影响确实存在且影响方向和力度与央行沟通方式以及股票市场背景有关。具体而言:(1)书面沟通影响显著,口头沟通则无明显作用;(2)宽松性政策信息沟通产生了正向影响,紧缩性信息沟通影响为负;(3)沟通事件的影响主要体现为一种短期作用,并伴随着即时效应、预知效应和滞后效应;(4)在熊市或牛市的不同市场背景下,央行沟通对股价的影响存在非对称性。结果表明,央行的沟通手段对金融市场有重要影响。     

Stock Market Reaction to the Bank Liquidation in Japan: A Case for the Informational Effect Hypothesis

Previous studies investigating the stock market reaction to U.S. bank failures rejected the bank run or domino hypothesis. However, if providing relevant bank information to the public is crucial to preventing bank panics, Japanese banks with limited disclosure are more vulnerable to bank runs than their U.S. counterparts. In this paper, I investigate the stock market reaction to Hyogo Bank's liquidation on August 30, 1995, which was the first bank liquidation in Japan and placed the financial burden on the general public. I find that stock market participants distinguished solvent banks from problematic banks. That is, my results, supporting the informational effect hypothesis, suggest that it is questionable even in Japan for the government to bail out an insolvent bank based on the potential risk of bank runs.     

Bank capital regulation in a barrier option framework

The barrier options theory of corporate security valuation is applied to the contingent claims of a regulated bank. The regulator/insurer of a bank owns a down-and-in call option on the bank assets which can be balanced against the expected coverage cost. Raising the regulatory barrier (critical asset level triggering bank closure) leads to a transfer of wealth from stockholders to the insurer and reduces stockholder incentives to increase asset risk. Empirical tests on a sample of 152 one-bank holding companies show that regulatory barriers are priced in the stock market and are inversely related to Tier 1 leverage ratios.     

How Does the Stock Market View Bank Regulatory Capital Forbearance Policies?

During the subprime crisis, the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (FDIC) has shown, once again, laxity in resolving and closing insolvent institutions. Ronn and Verma (1986) call the tolerance level below which a bank closure is triggered the regulatory policy parameter. We derive a model in which we make this parameter stochastic and bank specific to infer the stock market view of the regulatory capital forbearance value. For 565 U.S. listed banks during 1990 to 2012, the countercyclical forbearance fraction in capital, most substantial in recessions, could represent 17%, on average, of the market valuation of bank equity and could go as high as 100%.     

资本市场融资、经济增长与产业结构升级——基于中国省际面板数据的检验

本文利用扩展柯布-道格拉斯生产函数,分析我国金融深化的背景下,利用多层次资本市场的不同渠道资本融资、经济增长以及产业结构升级之间的动态关系。文章利用29个省、市、自治区2006~2010年的面板数据,实证结果发现:多层次资本市场融资对经济增长具有显著的促进效应,但债券市场与FDI对经济增长的作用较弱。总量促进经济增长的背后,不同的融资渠道之间的相互作用不尽相同:银行信贷与债券对股票市场筹资存在显著的"溢出效应",FDI对股票市场筹资存在显著的"挤出效应",说明股票市场融资可以替代FDI在实体经济中的作用。随后对多层次资本市场与产业结构转型关系的数据进行实证。研究发现:股票融资、债券融资在一定程度上推动了中国的经济结构转型,但FDI与结构转型负相关,银行信贷与经济转型的关系不显著。     

The asymmetric effect of international swap lines on banks in emerging markets

This paper investigates the effect of international swap lines on stock returns using data from banks in emerging markets. The analysis first shows that swap lines by the Swiss National Bank (SNB) had a positive impact on bank stocks in Central and Eastern Europe. It then highlights the importance of individual bank characteristics in identifying the asymmetric effect of swap lines on bank stocks. Bank-level evidence suggests that stock prices of local and less-well capitalized banks as well as banks with high foreign currency exposures and high reliance on short-term funding responded more strongly to SNB swap lines. This new evidence is consistent with the view that swap lines not only enhanced market liquidity but also reduced risks associated with micro-prudential issues.     

Reprint of: The asymmetric effect of international swap lines on banks in emerging markets

This paper investigates the effect of international swap lines on stock returns using data from banks in emerging markets. The analysis first shows that swap lines by the Swiss National Bank (SNB) had a positive impact on bank stocks in Central and Eastern Europe. It then highlights the importance of individual bank characteristics in identifying the asymmetric effect of swap lines on bank stocks. Bank-level evidence suggests that stock prices of local and less-well capitalized banks as well as banks with high foreign currency exposures and high reliance on short-term funding responded more strongly to SNB swap lines. This new evidence is consistent with the view that swap lines not only enhanced market liquidity but also reduced risks associated with micro-prudential issues.     

Firm valuations and board compensation: Evidence from alternative banking models

This study examines whether the board of directors' compensation schemes affect stock market valuations for banks in a dual banking system (Islamic and conventional banks). We employ an international sample of 11 countries for the period 2010–2015. Our results show that for the full sample (i.e. irrespective of the bank type), board of directors' compensation has a significant and positive impact on stock market valuations. For different bank types, we find that the positive effect of the board of directors' compensation on market valuations holds only for conventional banks, with insignificant evidence for their Islamic counterparts. We, also, examine the impact of Shari'ah supervisory board's compensation on Islamic banks value. Our results show that investors positively perceived and priced information related to this boards' compensation.     

EXPECTATIONS,INTEREST RATES,AND COMMERCIAL BANK STOCKS

This study examines the effect of current and expected interest rate changes on bank equity values and attempts to reconcile the conflicting findings of previous research regarding this issue. A multiple index market model of bank security returns is specified and estimated. The results confirm the existence of an interest rate effect on bank stocks that is not explained by returns on the market portfolio. In addition, bank stock returns appear to be sensitive to an interest rate forecast error.     

Market Discipline and the Use of Stock Market Data to Predict Bank Financial Distress

We assess the extent to which stock market information can be used to estimate leading indicators of bank financial distress. We specify a logit early warning model, designed for European banks, which tests if market based indicators add predictive value to models relying on accounting data. We also study the robustness of the link between market information and financial downgrading in the light of the safety net and asymmetric information hypotheses. Some of our results support the use of market-related indicators. Other results show that the accuracy of the predictive power depends on the extent to which bank liabilities are market traded.      

Did Good Corporate Governance Improve Bank Performance during the Financial Crisis?

This paper focuses on the effects of corporate governance on bank performance during the financial crisis of 2008. Using data on large publicly traded U.S. banks, we examine whether banks with stronger corporate governance mechanisms were associated with higher profitability and better stock market performance amidst the crisis. Our empirical findings on the effects of corporate governance on bank performance are mixed. Although the results suggest that banks with stronger corporate governance mechanisms were associated with higher profitability in 2008, our findings also indicate that strong governance may have had negative effects on stock market valuations of banks amidst the crisis. Nevertheless, we document that banks with strong corporate governance practices had substantially higher stock returns in the aftermath of the market meltdown, indicating that good governance may have mitigated the adverse influence of the crisis on bank credibility.     

货币政策是否影响股票市场:基于中国股市的实证分析

货币政策是否影响股票市场，对该问题的回答涉及到中央银行是否有能力以及如何干预股票市场。本文运用协整检验、Granger因果关系检验、向量自回归模型等计量方法分析得出如下结论：1．货币供应量M1、M2与股市流通市值存在双向因果关系，名义利率Nr、实际利率Rr是股市流通市值Nc的Granger原因；2．中央银行可以通过货币供应量和利率两种方式影响股票市场，其中利率更有效。这些结论对于货币当局调控股票市场具有重要的借鉴意义。     

Sovereign Credit Risk,Banks' Government Support,and Bank Stock Returns around the World

We explore the joint effect of expected government support to banks and changes in sovereign credit ratings on bank stock returns using data for banks in 37 countries between 1995 and 2011. We find that sovereign credit rating downgrades have a large negative effect on bank stock returns for those banks that are expected to receive stronger support from their governments. This result is stronger for banks in advanced economies where governments are better positioned to provide that support. Our results suggest that stock market investors perceive sovereigns and domestic banks as markedly interconnected, partly through government guarantees.     

Learning by Observing: Information Spillovers in the Execution and Valuation of Commercial Bank M&As

We offer a new explanation for why academic studies typically fail to find value creation in bank mergers. Our conjectures are predicated on the idea that, until recently, large bank acquisitions were a new phenomenon, with no best practices history to inform bank managers or market investors. We hypothesize that merging banks, and investors pricing bank mergers, learn by observing information that spills over from previous bank mergers. We find evidence consistent with these conjectures for 216 M&As of large, publicly traded U.S. commercial banks between 1987 and 1999. Our findings are consistent with semistrong stock market efficiency.     

Banks,the IMF,and the Asian crisis

This paper examines the impact of the Asian crisis on bank stocks. In the second half of 1997, Western banks outperformed their stock markets. In contrast, East Asian bank indices incurred losses in excess of 60% in each of the crisis countries. Most of these poor performances are explained by stock market movements in the crisis countries. After taking into account these movements, currency exposures affected banks adversely only in Indonesia and the Philippines. Except for the Korean program, which affected positively bank stocks in all countries in our sample but one, IMF programs had little effect on bank values.     

DETERMINANTS OF VALUATION EFFECTS FOR SECURITY OFFERINGS OF COMMERCIAL BANK HOLDING COMPANIES

In this study, the impact of security issuance by bank holding companies is examined in light of two hypotheses: the regulation or asymmetry reduction hypothesis and the bank capital hypothesis. Announcements of the issuance of common stock are associated with a significant negative effect, and the magnitude of this effect is similar to that found previously for utilities and smaller than that found for industrial firms. The market does not appear to treat subordinated debt announcements as similar to equity, although the debt qualifies as “capital” for regulatory purposes. Cross-sectional regressions do not support asymmetric information models where all unexpected external announcements are viewed negatively. Rather, the type of security being issued is an important determinant of the announcement effect.     

Financial intermediation and economic growth: the post-liberalization Indian experience

The paper is concerned with the relationship between economic growth and financial intermediation, in particular stock market development, in post-liberalization India. It identifies three possible relationships: (a) the relationship between growth of manufacturing and growth of the stock market; (b) the relationship between growth of the stock market and growth of traditional financial intermediaries like banks; (c) the relationship between the growth of the primary stock market and that of the secondary stock market. These three relationships are empirically tested using Indian data. While the growth of turnover in the stock market is found to be positively correlated with the change in the growth of manufacturing and the growth of sales of new shares is found to positively affect the secondary market, evidence on the relationship between sales of new shares and traditional banking activities is mixed. The primary stock market is found to crowd out bank deposits, but crowd in bank credit.     

考虑市场治理体系的银行债权治理及其效应研究——来自A股工业企业的经验证据

将银行债权、产品市场、经理人市场和公司控制权市场等机制作为市场治理机制,构成市场治理机制体系,采用深沪A股工业企业2006-2016年的数据,从检验中国市场化改革成效角度,以市场化体系中最为活跃的力量——银行债权为核心,考察其在市场化体系情境下对公司治理的作用机制及效应。研究发现:无论是否考虑市场治理体系,银行债权均发挥积极治理效应,且考虑体系时银行债权治理效应更强,动态优化幅度更大,优化趋势更明显;考虑体系时,除公司控制权市场外,银行债权与其他机制形成良性互动进而发挥积极的直接效应和间接效应,且直接效应占优。研究证明我国市场治理体系日益完善,市场化改革进程日益深化,但仍需进一步加大改革的力度。研究对肯定市场化改革成效,坚定市场化改革取向,进一步发挥银行债权治理效应,形成协同高效的市场治理体系和防范化解金融风险具有重要意义。