收入分配不平等、有效需求与经济增长——一个基于中国经济转型期的实证研究

本文从有效需求角度入手,探究中国经济转型期经济增长与收入分配不平等之间的关系,并运用中国1978-2005年间28个省市的面板数据,通过面板数据单位根检验、协整检验与误差修正模型,对中国经济增长与收入分配不平等、有效需求、劳动力、投资、教育以及收入分配不平等和有效需求交互影响之间的长期关系和短期关系进行了研究。结果显示,中国经济转型期经济增长与收入分配不平等、有效需求具有长期的均衡关系,收入分配不平等通过有效需求机制阻碍了经济增长,且在短期内效果也非常显著。     

美国贸易逆差:增长惯性与可持续性

美国的经常项目逆差特别是贸易逆差“历史悠久”,尤其是近年来高速增长,已引起人们广泛的关注。本文作者认为:20世纪90年代以来的美国贸易逆差已很难单从汇率、贸易政策及产品竞争力等单个变量来加以解释。通过运用滞后一年的时间数列相关分析及回归分析,本文得出的结论是:当期美国贸易逆差是前期美国贸易逆差的惯性增长,并且只要美国资本与金融账户的盈余足够冲抵贸易逆差,美国的贸易逆差便具有可持续性。针对近期美国人制造的“人民币升值论”,结合近十年来中美双边贸易现实,说明美国贸易逆差与人民币汇率之间没有必然联系,人民币升值也不可能改善美国的贸易收支状况。     

The Marxian schemes of reproduction and the theory of effective demand

The paper deals with some theoretical and analytical issuesraised by a recent book by Trigg on Marx's schemes of reproduction.The paper presents a generalized model of expanded reproductionand concentrates on the attempt to develop Marx's schemes alongKeynesian lines. Trigg tries to develop a Keynesian interpretationof the schemes without significant changes to Marx's originalapproach; the paper argues that the abandonment of some of Marx'shypotheses, in particular that of free competition, is necessaryto allows us to provide a Marxian determination of underemploymentequilibria and to use a Marxian version of the Keynesian conceptof multiplier. In considering Marx's and Keynes's analyses ofcapitalist economies, the paper also emphasizes their similaritieswith respect to the importance of money and the capitalists'liquidity preference in the process of reproduction and growth.     

离岸外包对美国经济的影响分析

离岸外包是当前世界经济中普遍存在的一种经济现象，在美国引起了广泛关注。笔者通过审视美国经济中存在的离岸外包现象，分析了它的产生原因，并研究了它对美国劳工就业、经济发展的影响，认为离岸外包对美国经济的长期发展利大于弊。     

1999年经济回眸及2000年前瞻

1999年国民经济整体上保持了平稳增长的态势,经济形势进一步趋好,但我们还难以作出经济已出现趋势性回升的结论。只要我们认真贯彻中央的有关精神,科学地搞好宏观调控,2000年就仍将保持稳定增长的态势,经济增长率会略高于1999年。     

金融危机背景下农村需求与河南经济增长关系分析

金融危机会带来经济增长速度的放慢甚至停滞。金融危机对河南省的影响来的迟,影响重,走的慢,为实现其增长目标,河南省需要确定相应的政策。笔者从河南省的经验数据出发,在运用VECM建模分析河南省经济增长中对农村经济的路径依赖并求解动态调整方程的基础上,分析了其政策含义,认为金融危机下河南的经济增长,从长远看要靠积极扩大农村需求来实现,短期内还要依靠增加农村投资抑平波动;农村需求的突破口在于降低物价和加大农村投资。     

Uncertainty and the United States’ election effect on the economy: some thoughts and empirical illustrations

This study discusses the general impact of Donald Trump’s election on the US and European economies as well as the effect of this political news on financial markets. To this end, we discuss different hypotheses from a theoretical view and empirically illustrate these thoughts when possible. Our analysis suggests that while the expected Trump measures might boost the US economy in the short term, these actions would have negative long-term consequences in the United States. Further, this new US policy will affect European economies and destabilize financial markets while increasing uncertainty, which could constrain growth and increase the downside risk.     

The federal reserve board MPS quarterly econometric model of the US economy

This paper describes the structure and properties of the Federal Reserve Board's (MPS) econometric model of the US economy. The theoretical underpinnings are developed using a small growth model that is a simplified version of the steady-state structure of the full model. Short-run dynamic properties, which are Keynesian, are discussed and quantified with simulation results. The largest part of the paper consists of a discussion of the theoretical basis and empirical properties of the key behavioural equations. A complete list of equations is included.     

中国宏观经济形势与政策:2009—2010年

本文依据中国经济增长与价格形成理论模型以及CMAFM计量模型,分析与预测2009—2010年间中国经济在积极财政政策和适度宽松货币政策支持下的复苏过程。本文认为,中国需求管理应该继续采取扩张性政策取向,完成中国经济景气从萧条到繁荣的周期形态转换,并且与中国经济发展的高储蓄—高投资—高增长模式相适应,形成以促进国内投资需求为轴心的政策架构。     

On measuring the wealth of nations: the US economy, 1964-2001

This paper examines the methodology of Shaikh and Tonak (Measuringthe Wealth of Nations, 1994) underlying their calculation ofestimates of productive labour in the US economy from 1964 to2001. The focus is not on the results but on the methods thatgenerate them. The paper finds that the compromises made byShaikh and Tonak because of data unavailability are unreliable,and that better approximations are possible. On this latterbasis, the Shaikh and Tonak methodology can be used to providethe labour and wage estimates needed for empirical investigationsin the surplus-based tradition.     

Effective demand and the terms of trade in a dual economy: a Kaldorian perspective

Along the line suggested by Nicholas Kaldor, the paper incorporatesinto the analysis of a dual economy effective demand as a problemof generation of agricultural surplus and its realisation intopurchasing power for industrial goods. Through this approach,it is shown how one obtains empirical predictions about unevensectoral growth rates, as well as an effect of the movementin the terms of trade on long-term industrial growth which iscontrary to that suggested by Lewis. The paper also specifiesthe process of dynamic adjustment of industrial growth in aself-reinforcing circular flow under conditions of sufficientlyhigh agricultural growth, extending the effective demand argumentin a dual economy.     

Balance‐of‐payment constrained growth: the case of China, 1979–2002

The aim of this study is to empirically test the validity of Thirlwall’s Law in China during the reform period of 1979–2002. This study finds: (1) that for 1979–2002, the Chinese economy has grown on average as fast as Thirlwall’s Law predicts – the average actual growth rate and predicted growth rate were, respectively, 9.25 and 8.55, which are statistically identical; (2) that the growth of GDP and of exports are cointegrated. Both (1) and (2) provide strong support for Thirlwall’s Law in China during the reform period after 1978. The supportive result of Thirlwall’s Law implies the relevance of a demand‐side approach to the economic growth in China. For time series analyses, a bounds test approach is adopted.     

中国经济走势

1997年东亚金融危机发生后，中国经济也出现了下降和趋势。政府采取了一系列的措施，来启动经济的回升，到2000年出现了巨大转机。政府一方面运用财政政策、货币政策和刺激消费的政策等需求方面的政策刺激经济增长；另一方面运用供给政策来焕发企业的活力。这些政策被证明是行之有效的。未来中国经济发展不仅受到世界经济衰退的影响和20世纪的遗贸问题的困扰，而且还面临着全球化的冲击。尽管我们遇到严峻的挑战，但也有很多有利因素。