基于流动性过剩的财政政策和货币政策协调性研究

流动性过剩是当前中国宏观经济中的突出矛盾，影响了中国经济健康有序的发展。要解决流动性膨胀问题，不应该仅仅从银行体系这个角度来考虑，而应该从整个宏观经济平衡这个更为广泛的视角去分析和研究。这意味着仅仅依靠货币当局，沿用提高存款准备金率和存贷款利率、向市场发行央行票据等现有的货币政策手段来应对流动性膨胀，难以根治问题。应在运用货币政策的同时，配合财政政策，通过两大政策的协调配合，建立起消费主导的良性经济发展模式和合理的国民收入分配格局，才是应对流动性膨胀的治本之策。     

Vested Interests and the Common Man as Seen Through Monetary and Fiscal Policy: Flooding Wall Street or Main Street?

There are many angles through which a critical observer can analyze the divergent class interests in most aspects of macroeconomic management. We examine the insistence of financial authorities of all major economies on reviving economic activity through monetary — and not fiscal — policy as a particularly clear example of favoring vested interests over the interests of the common man. Nearly a century after Thorstein Veblen wrote on the subject, one can find many parallel elements to the political landscape of the times. Today, the common man is often expressed by the “99%,” and many accept that the dominant vested interest is that of global banks. Unlike in Veblen’s times, economists today have many historical experiments in economic management that they can consult. By employing logic, historical experience, and an understanding of our current global finance-led capitalism, we offer a preliminary institutionalist analysis of the mechanisms of current monetary policy that “flood” Wall Street, while leaving employment, production, and investment — Main Street — all but forgotten. We then explain how vested interests have abandoned fiscal policy and left a deflationary macroeconomic environment.     

The lean times in the Peruvian economy

The growth rate of “nonprimary gross domestic product (GDP)” (Perú’s urban economy) dropped to 3.6 percent in 2014 and to 2.4 percent in 2015, far below the annual average of 7.3 percent recorded over the previous decade; moreover, an equally low growth rate of 2.8 percent per year is projected in 2016. In the macroeconomic history of Peru, the times of plenty —that is, the more or less prolonged booms—are also times of high prices of the commodities that the country exports; meanwhile, the lean times—that is, the more or less intense recessions in which economic activity slows down—are times of low commodity prices. This article describes the negative external shock undergone by the Peruvian economy and its recessionary and inflationary effects over 2014–15, analyzes the fiscal and monetary policies applied in response to the external shock, and outlines the macroeconomic challenges faced by the new government of Pedro Pablo Kuczynski.     

宏观经济政策对人民币汇率变动的影响

本文从影响汇率变动因素的角度出发,着重探讨在不完全资本流动情况下宏观经济政策对一国汇率变动的作用,进而对人民币走势作一利弊分析,指出人民币走向国际可自由兑换货币是中国参与经济全球化的必然趋势。     

关于当前宏观经济形势和宏观经济政策

2002年下半年的经济增长不会像2001年那样呈逐季下降趋势,可能出现比较平稳的上升。但我们要清醒地认识到,通货紧缩的趋势扩大和有效需求不足问题基本上还没有得到解决,经济增长的内在动力依然不足。在继续坚持积极的财政政策和稳健的货币政策的同时,应研究选择积极的财政政策淡出的时间和力度,不能把积极的财政政策中期化和长期化。     

The Crisis of America’s Cities

This paper aims to show how state intervention within the European Monetary Union can have positive effects not only on growth but also on public balances and debt. The relation between centralized monetary policy and decentralized fiscal policy partly solves the lack of coordination between the two. Each time a fiscal expansion in an EU country is not accompanied by a Central Bank interest rate increase, the expansionary effect of public spending, initially financed through the emission of public bonds, will be reinforced by endogenous money creation due to the increase in growth. The final result, if growth exceeds the rate of interest, is not only an increase in equilibrium income, but also a reduction in debt.     

(Non)optimality of the Friedman rule and optimal taxation in a growing economy with imperfect competition

This paper shows that if capital generates production externality, there exists a wedge between returns to money and to capital, driving the Friedman rule is not optimal. However, in the absence of capital externality, the Friedman rule may be valid even under imperfect competition.     

The Analysis of High Exchange Reserve and High National Saving in China

High resident saving and high foreign exchange reserve are the inevitable products in China during the period from planned economy to market economy, and there is high correlation between them. On the one hand, this kind of economic phenomenon can＇t persist in a long time; on the other hand, to implement relevant fiscal and monetary policy, foreign trade policy, and foreign exchange management policy to change them in view of their negative effects to present economy is one of the present economic tasks.     

不同汇率制度下的货币政策、财政政策与最优货币区

本文讨论了１９９９年度诺贝尔经济学奖获得者－芒德尔的主要理论贡献及其现实意义,芒德尔的开放经济中的稳定政策理论认为：稳定政策的效果取决于汇率制度。在浮动汇率制度下,货币政策是有力的而财政政策是无力的;在固定汇率制度下,财政政策是有力的而货币政策是无力的。最优货币区的判别理论为研究欧洲货币联盟（ＥＭＵ）优缺点的研究人员提供了起点。     

A simple model of three economies with two currencies: the eurozone and the USA

This paper presents a Keynesian model which describes threecountries trading merchandise and financial assets with oneanother. It is initially assumed that all three countries haveindependent fiscal policies but that two of the countries sharea currency, hence the model can be used to make a preliminaryanalysis of the conduct of economic policy in ‘the eurozone’vis-à-vis the rest of the world—‘the USA’.The main conclusion will be that, if all three countries doindeed operate independent fiscal policies, the system willwork under a floating currency regime, but only so long as theEuropean central bank is prepared to modify the structure ofits assets by accumulating an ever rising proportion of billsissued by any ‘weak’ euro country.     

积极财政政策:理论、实践与政策调整

积极财政政策来源于西方财政理论与实践,这一理论对我国财政理论与实践有着十分重要的影响。结合中国实际情况,积极财政政策应如何调整。     

Is Abe's Fiscal Policy Ricardian? What Does the Fiscal Theory of Prices Mean for Japan?

The second arrow of Abenomics is flexible fiscal policy. However, it does not mean just fiscal stimulus as the Abe administration decided on the fiscal consolidation target of achieving a primary surplus by fiscal year 2020. Improving the primary balance implies making government debt more sustainable. Although the consumption tax rate was raised from 5% to 8% in April 2014, the Abe administration has decided twice to postpone increasing the consumption tax from 8% to 10%. In addition, a fiscal stimulus package was implemented. We use a Fiscal Stance Index to examine fiscal policy from the viewpoint of fiscal sustainability and a Markov switching model to examine fiscal policy from the viewpoint of the fiscal theory of the price level, and find that the Abe's fiscal stance is not Ricardian.     

Fiscal Policy in Europe: How Effective Are Automatic Stabilisers?

It is largely recognised that fiscal policy will have largerresponsibilities for cyclicalstabilisation in EMU given the loss of the monetary instrument.At the same time, theEMU's budgetary framework emphasises the need to rely onautomatic fiscal stabilisers,rather than active policies in cushioning the business cycle.We show that automaticstabilisers are relatively powerful in the event of shocksto private consumption, but lessso in the case of shocks to private investment and exports.In the case of supply sideshocks, the automatic stabilisers are largely ineffective,but this may actually be a goodthing to the extent that supply-side disturbances call forstructural adjustment rather thancyclical stabilisation.     

重新认识菲利普斯曲线的真正价值

菲利普斯曲线的真正价值不在于失业率与通胀率之间的置换关系而在于对经济运行态势的勾勒。短期菲利普斯曲线可分为六种类型，长期菲利普斯曲线则极不规则，就实现宏观调控而言，研究短期菲利普斯曲线更有意义。     

我国现阶段财政政策若干问题的思考

１９９８ 年下半年以后, 中央把宏观调控的重点, 放在实施积极的财政政策上。即运用适当规模的财政赤字和向商业银行增发国债, 加大财政支出力度, 作为启动国民经济增长的重要手段。但是, 如果没有消费需求的支持和货币政策的配套, 就不可能把行政启动转变为市场启动, 这种投资增长和经济回升, 是不会持久的。这就要求政府的宏观调控的着眼点, 要放在鼓励和促进消费需求增长上, 使投资和消费双向启动, 才能带动国民经济增长的良性循环。