The theory of interventionism as an Austrian theory of slowdowns

This paper addresses the question of whether the Austrian theory of interventionism helps us understand what growth economists call decelerations or slowdowns. It is proposed that the theory of stagnation based on non-productive entrepreneurship Coyne et al. (Journal of Austrian Economics 23(4), 333–346, 2010) complements the theory of interventionism, and when they are combined, a theory of slowdowns is the result. The consequences of this theory are used in an empirical investigation whose strategy is based on two hypotheses. One is that the interventionist process has institutional determinants which can be derived from the theory. The other is that interventionism is the mechanism of the slowdown of economic growth not only for those countries that have experienced relatively high growth rates in the past but also for those with normal growth rates. Using logit regressions it is shown that reductions in any area of economic freedom can be seen as one of the causes of slowdowns.     

The Needham puzzle,the Weber question,and China's miracle: Long-term performance since the Sung dynasty

This paper attempts a brief overview of China's economic performance since the Sung dynasty. It discusses Chinese long economic stagnation since the Sung dynasty and explores the reasons why it was quickly lagging behind western countries from the 1800s. It explains why the industrialization and modernization led by Chinese government from 1949 to 1978 failed in narrowing the gap between China and the developed countries. It examines Chinese rapid economic growth during its reform and opening up period.     

我国城市创业成本指数的构建及其实证研究

创业成本是影响创新创业活动开展的重要因素,但关于城市创业成本的量化研究却很少。本文从显性成本和隐性成本两个方面将创业成本划分为生活成本、环境成本、融资成本、运营成本、研发成本和失败成本六类,在此基础上建立了城市创业成本指数,选取了我国创业活动较为活跃的10个城市进行了2012-2016年创业成本指数的实证研究。研究结果表明：在10个样本城市中,深圳的创业成本一直居于较高水平,北京、上海近五年创业成本总体呈上升趋势,长沙、成都的创业成本呈下降趋势,重庆的创业成本一直保持在较低的水平。经济发展水平越高的城市,其创业成本中的显性成本相对较高,但隐性成本则相对较低。     

The New View of Minerals and Economic Growth*

Resource economists have long been fascinated by the relationship between minerals and economic growth. This interest has historically been based in pan on the concern that mineral resources may someday constrain world economic growth, or worse, force a painful reduction in the living standards of the industrialized countries In recent years, however, a very different view of minerals and economic growth has emerged. This new view maintains that economic growth has over the last decade or two become ‘uncoupled’ or independent of minerals and other primary products. Economic growth no longer requires an increase in mineral consumption, and no longer stimulates the demand for metals and other mineral commodities. The new view offers an explanation for the stagnation in metal and mineral consumption since the early 1970s, and presumably was fostered by the depressed conditions of mineral markets over the past decade. An examination of the forces behind the stagnation, however, suggests that the new view is only partially correct Sectoral shifts, the rise of high technology products within manufacturing, resource-saving technology, and material substitution have together caused intensity-of-use trends to deteriorate. As a result, metal consumption can now remain constant or even decline at the same time the economy is expanding, if rate of economic expansion is less than the rate of decline in intensity-of-use. While the relationship between minerals and economic growth has changed in recent years, the two are not independent Faster economic growth requires and stimulates faster growth (or a slower decline) in mineral consumption. This finding has implications for both the short- and long-run behaviour of metal and mineral markets.     

转移支付与财政支出的灰色关联分析——基于新疆自治区

改革开放三十年来中央转移支付和新疆财政支出在数量上都有比较大的变化,总体而言都成上升趋势,而中央转移支付占新疆财政支出的比重一直维持在比较高的水平。从历年数据来看,生产性财政支出、非生产性财政支出和获得的中央转移支付的量交替上升,折射出新疆的发展历程以及人们意识的改变。中央转移支付由在地方财政中的绝对比重,慢慢转变成新疆财政支出最强有力的后盾;新疆财政支出也由最初重视基础设施建设等生产性财政支出,演变成强调教育、社会保障等非生产性财政支出的重要性,致力于经济社会的协调发展。通过运用灰色关联分析后发现,中央转移支付与生产性财政支出和非生产性财政支出的关系都非常密切,但是就新疆而言主要是满足非生产性财政支出的需要,而中央政府则可以通过加大专项转移支付力度的方式加强对新疆经济建设的直接干预。     

Are cooperatives gender sensitive? A confirmatory and predictive analysis of women's collective entrepreneurship

The literature on entrepreneurship has developed a huge body of fruitful research to explain why women do not engage in business as often as men. However, relatively little is known about the role that different business models may play in driving women's entrepreneurial activity, which is examined in this study. In this paper we develop a model to empirically test the relationship between women's motivations to become entrepreneurs and their willingness to embark on business through cooperatives, a particular organizational model. We find that the fit between women's needs and expectations and the guiding principles of cooperatives is decisive for the materialization of female entrepreneurship. Furthermore, we explore the role that institutions can play in fostering this link. In doing so, we extend the literature on women's entrepreneurship by highlighting key factors to better channel the development of this potential resource for economic development. Our confirmatory model highlights the role of cooperatives as a type of organization particularly suited to the interests and needs of women entrepreneurs. Thus, the promotion of this business model can be useful to improve the number of women entrepreneurs and, in turn, enhance economic development.     

Poverty, voracity, and growth

This article investigates economic performance when enforceable property rights are missing and basic needs matter for consumption. It suggests a new view of the so-called voracity effect according to which windfall gains in productivity induce behavior that leads to lower economic growth. Taking into account that the rate of intertemporal substitution in consumption depends on the level of consumption, it is shown that “voracious behavior” is situation-specific. It occurs when an economy is in decline and sufficiently close to stagnation.     

中国近代的经济增长和中长周期波动

从鸦片战争到全国解放的历史时期,中国经济发展总体状况如何?一百余年间,中国经济增长的速度是快还是慢?这一百余年的经济史如何划分阶段?该文利用可以找到的中国近代经济统计资料,运用数理分析方法对中国经济近代化的程度、发展状况进行度量和分析,以回答上述问题.该文的研究始于19世纪80年代,止于20世纪30年代中期,由中国近代的经济增长;中国近代经济发展的中长周期波动;中国近代经济增长的总趋势与发展阶段三个部分组成.     

Culture and innovation: The moderating effect of cultural values on corporate entrepreneurship

In the few last decades researchers have paid attention to the role of entrepreneurship and innovation in productivity, employment, and economic and social development. In addition, literature has focused on the entrepreneurship that occurs within organizations, such as corporate entrepreneurship. Also, the role of culture is crucial for the development of innovation. Consequently, it is vital to understand why some firms are more innovative and develop more entrepreneurial projects than others, and what determines innovation performance. This research uses Institutional Economics as a conceptual framework with the objective of analyzing the environmental factors that condition innovation within the firms. Specifically, the study determines the moderating effect of cultural values on corporate entrepreneurship. The study uses a logistic regression and the Global Entrepreneurship Monitor – GEM – database from the years 2004–2008, with information of 62 different countries (718.758 observations). The main findings highlight the impact of the environmental factors on organizational innovation, specifically on corporate entrepreneurship. Variables such as living in an entrepreneurial culture and media exposure (informal factors), and the number of procedures necessary to create a new business or access to finance (formal factors), appear to be significant for corporate entrepreneurship. Moreover, informal factors behave as moderators between formal factors and corporate entrepreneurship. The article has several implications from both theoretical perspective (advancing in the application of Institutional Economics for the study of innovation within the firms) and from the practical point of view (providing insights for governmental policies interested in fostering innovation and corporate entrepreneurship).     

经营式农业变迁与传统中国农业经济停滞——基于人才配置模式的探讨

文章在一个简单的人才配置模型中分析了传统中国农业经济的停滞问题。文章认为,经营式农业发展不足是造成传统中国农业经济停滞不前的一个重要原因。经营式农业的发展需要具有企业家才能的经营式农场主的投资和创新,而传统中国社会的制度环境却鼓励人才流向官僚阶层。受官僚阶层高报酬的吸引,具有企业家才能的人大都热衷于进入官僚阶层而无心从事农业经营。这种人才配置模式阻碍了经营式农业的发展,抑制了农业技术创新,农业经济因此陷入停滞状态。     

Feudalism as an economic system

This review essay discusses recent books on feudalism by Perry Anderson, John Critchley, Rodney Hilton, and Witold Kula. Its purpose is to provide an overview to a number of approaches toward the economic aspects of feudalism and to indicate promising directions in this field for comparative economists. To this end, four major questions are discussed: What is feudalism? How and why did the feudal economic system emerge? What are the short-term economic mechanisms within a feudal economy? And how and why did the feudal economic system decline?     

The concept of maturity and the transformation of economic systems

In economics, ‘maturity’ essentially means that an economic system (or part of a system) is ripe to be transformed into something else or heading towards decline. In Josef Steindl's economic thinking the concept of maturity, by which he means a stage of development where the economy becomes unable to fully realize its output potential, occupies a central place. Whereas for Steindl the main causes of such maturity are endogenous, other economists such as Schumpeter, Sombart, Hilferding, Keynes, and Hansen consider stagnation to be caused primarily by exogenous factors. Various concepts and causes of maturity are compared. Contrary to expectations based on these concepts, economic development after the Great Depression has not been characterized by stagnation or transition to planned economy. Instead, the dynamics of innovation were strong enough to prevent the economy from becoming ‘mature’. It appears that the actual course of events can be better explained within Steindl's concept of maturity.     

The Growth and Decline of the Modern Sector and the Merchant Class in Imperial China

This paper offers an explanation of why, in Imperial China, the merchant class expanded and the economy modernized up to the 13th century, and why it entered into decline from the 14th century onward. The modernization of China required the accumulation of public capital and the building of good institutions, upon which a vibrant class of merchants and entrepreneurs could gradually emerge. This class contributed to the enrichment of the society and the emperor, but its activities also weakened the dominance of the emperor and the élite, who would then prefer to block the modernization of China and to restrict the size of the merchant class, putting the economy into long‐run stagnation. However, when the emperor faced severe foreign military threats and when he realized that a modern sector improved the defense capabilities of China, he made the opposite choice.     

感知创业阻碍对创业行为倾向的影响——创业教育的调节作用

2015年以来，我国创业活跃度整体呈显著下滑趋势，影响国家经济高质量发展。基于SSO框架，构建感知创业阻碍对创业行为倾向的作用机制模型，揭示我国创业活跃度不高的原因，探讨创业教育对该机制的调节作用，从降低感知创业阻碍对创业行为倾向不良影响视角明确创业教育实施效果。采用259份创客问卷调研数据对研究模型进行实证检验，结果发现：在感知创业阻碍的3个维度中，感知失去金融资源对失败恐惧的正向影响最强，感知失去社会支持次之，感知失去市场需求对失败恐惧的正向影响不显著；失败恐惧对个体创业行为倾向具有直接阻碍作用；创业教育明显削弱了感知失去金融资源、感知失去社会支持对失败恐惧的正向影响，并降低了失败恐惧对创业行为倾向的阻碍作用。     

企业家精神对经济增长作用的实证研究

文章回顾了国内外企业家精神对经济增长作用的相关理论,指出企业家精神的核心是创新和创业,企业家精神对经济增长的作用主要是通过创新行为和创业行为两种机制起作用的。然后在这种理论分析的基础上,分别定量分析了我国东部、中部及西部的企业家精神与经济增长的关联性,各地区的企业家精神对相应地区经济增长的贡献等,为我国不同地区的经济增长政策的制定提供重要的指导。     

Endogenous Growth: A Knife Edge or the Razor's Edge?*

According to much of the recent growth literature, the dramatic worldwide decline in fertility currently taking place should ultimately lead to global economic stagnation. This pessimistic prediction is not shared by the original innovation‐based growth literature. In recent years, however, this strand of the literature has been criticized for resting on implausible knife‐edge assumptions and for its inconsistency with available evidence. In this paper, we argue that this conclusion is unwarranted.     

区域创业、空间溢出与经济增长效应研究

利用我国2005—2017年省级面板数据，基于不同类型空间权重矩阵，通过建立空间杜宾模型，研究创业水平与区域经济增长效应。结果发现: 我国区域经济水平呈现出显著的空间自相关性；机会型创业质量提高对区域经济增长具有显著拉动作用，会促进该区域内部及创业水平相近区域的经济增长，但可能抑制地理位置邻近区域的经济增长；需求型创业在一定程度上制约区域经济发展，可能抑制该区域内部经济增长，但会促进地理位置邻近区域的经济增长；在控制变量中，人力资本存量对经济增长的促进作用最强，溢出效应最大。     

The Japanese Economy: Stagnation,Recovery, and Challenges

The Japanese economy is showing signs of a moderate recovery after more than two decades of stagnation. This stagnation was characterized by low inflation or outright deflation, subdued long-term interest rates, elevated government debt and chronic fiscal deficits, and the decline in its share of global exports. Monetary policy has been highly accommodative, marked by low and negative policy rates and the expansion of the central bank’s balance sheet. The country has been mired in a liquidity trap. Despite the recent recovery, observed inflation is still below the Bank of Japan’s target of 2.0%. Wage growth is muted even though the unemployment rate is low. Meanwhile, the working-age population continues to shrink, and the general population is rapidly aging. Japan’s export sector faces stiff competition. Openness to immigration is quite limited. This article analyzes Japan’s economic challenges in light of the moderate recovery after the protracted stagnation, ongoing demographic changes, the reforms of Abenomics, and globalization.     

套利型创业、创新型创业与中国经济增长

在探讨套利型创业和创新型创业对经济增长效应机理差别的基础上,运用扩展的柯布-道格拉斯生产函数,结合2002-2014年中国省际面板数据,实证考察市场化进程中创业类型对中国经济增长的影响及其阶段性差异。结果表明,在不考虑协同效应的情况下套利型创业尤其是技术套利型创业对我国经济增长有显著促进作用,创新型创业的影响则不显著。但在市场化协同作用下,创新型创业经济增长效应的显著性和影响系数均大幅提高,套利型创业对经济增长的促进作用则显著下降。同时,门限回归检验发现,创业类型与市场化协同效应对经济增长的影响存在显著阶段性差异。     

中国企业家精神时空演化及驱动因素分析

基于空间计量经济学视角,探究了1998-2016年中国企业家精神时空演化特征,构建了空间杜宾模型,分析了企业家精神驱动因素。研究结果表明：中国的企业家精神在时间和空间上呈现不均衡发展特征,地区差异显著,甚至存在两极分化现象,整体呈现出自东部沿海地区向西部内陆地区阶梯性递减态势,且邻近省域企业家精神相近,具有一定空间集聚性;企业家精神的空间正相关性逐渐增强,空间依赖性增大;人力资本、经济发展程度、创新和教育水平是省域企业家精神的主要驱动因素,其中,人力资本、经济发展程度和教育水平对本省域企业家精神存在显著正向驱动作用,创新水平对邻近省域企业家精神存在显著正向驱动作用,教育水平对邻近省域企业家精神存在显著负向驱动作用。