货币传导效率对货币当局的认知冲击

如果货币政策通过资本渠道传导不畅,现金资产大量滞留在资本市场中,当货币扩张(紧缩)时,实体部门可能并不发生相应的资本流入(流出),则货币当局可能产生上次货币调整的效果不显著的错觉,促使其发动新一轮更大强度的同向货币政策调整,这将加重国内整体经济和资本市场的动荡。通过对近十余年来货币供给量、资本市场规模和资产价格的实证分析,发现我国资本市场中的政策信息阻塞现象的确会引起货币当局的错觉,而导致国内经济更加不稳定。     

不同货币理论:诸利率学派分歧之源浅探

不同学派利率理论问题的分歧,根源于其所依据的货币理论的不同。“古典”学派的实物利率理论源于其“两分法”货币理论;凯恩斯的纯货币利率理论源于其缺乏微观基础的货币经济理论;马克思以其科学的货币理论为依据,给予其资本利率理论以深刻的内涵。     

现代比较优势理论剖析

现代比较优势理论建立在相互矛盾的假设条件之上,因而是不正确的。一个国家的资本劳动比并没有意义,它只是技术水平的反映。国家之间资本劳动比例的不同也只是反映了技术水平的不同。在发达国家和发展中国家之间,贸易的原因是技术差距,而不是资本劳动比例的差异。发展中国家不应该盲目积累资本和提高人均资本的数量,而应该尽快提高本国的技术水平。     

浅析现代经济增长理论的演变

经济增长不仅是经济学研究的永恒主题,更是全世界都普遍关注的问题。从亚当·斯密开始,经济学家就不断地对经济增长进行探索。正是由于经济增长与全世界人民的福利息息相关,所以我们对经济增长的研究就显得格外重要。然而随着经济全球化的发展,传统经济增长理论已经不能解释现代社会经济发展过程中出现的种种现象。理论和现实之间的矛盾促使我们探求现代经济增长理论,以更好地解释世界。因此,对现代经济增长理论的演变进行探索,具有积极的理论和现实意义。本文从经济增长的事实入手,首先界定了现代经济增长的概念,然后对现代经济增长理论的发展脉络进行梳理和阐述,分别对哈罗德一多马模型、新古典经济增长模型（外生增长理论）和新增长模型（内生增长理论）进行了详细分析。通过分析可见现代经济增长理论经历了由技术外生增长到内生增长、市场结构由完全竞争到垄断竞争的演变。     

货币需求稳定性、货币目标制与中国货币政策框架改革

稳定的货币需求是货币目标制有效发挥作用的前提条件。文章首先从理论上阐述了货币需求与货币目标制的内在关联。其次,基于协整理论与误差修正模型,利用1996-2011年季度数据实证检验了中国货币需求函数的稳定性。实证研究结果表明,中国长期货币需求函数和短期货币需求函数的系数都缺乏稳定性。货币需求函数的不稳定势必增加中国以货币供应量为中间目标的货币政策操作难度,从而导致现行货币目标制的有效性和适宜性不断降低。最后提出为提高货币政策框架的有效性,中国应择机引入通胀目标制。     

The auctioneerless economics of Axel Leijonhufvud: the 'dark forces of time and ignorance' and the coordination of economic activity

Leijonhufvud focuses his analysis on the coordination of economicactivities. In a world tossed and torn by ever new episodesof instability, macroeconomic theory must finally admit andproperly analyse the limits of collective and individual rationality.Starting from the system's coordination, Leijonhufvud underlinesthe crucial role of information, learning and institutions.Coming to individual choice, he unremittingly rejects unboundedrationality. Methodologically, however, his use of general equilibriumas a benchmark seems to have conditioned his analysis. In bringingto light the ‘dark forces of time and ignorance’,Leijonhufvud himself seems to have fallen under the influenceof the siren represented by general equilibrium theory.     

Federal Monetary Policy

What is the optimal institutional structure for a federal central bank? The framework developed in this paper is used to analyze under what conditions an individual region will prefer a monetary union to be organized according to regional or common influences and how a combination of both can be rationalized. The implications of an enlargement of a monetary union for changes in its institutional setup are also derived.     

时间框架效应与团队知识冲突

针对团队知识冲突,引入“时间框架效应”作为重要情境约束要素,以期建立新型的冲突操控与管理机制,拓展了已有冲突管理研究的视角;运用“时间框架效应--知识冲突--团队知识创造绩效”作用机制的理论构思,为探索知识冲突对团队绩效的作用机理及其管理模式,提供了新的逻辑思路和理论分析工具。     

Framing Effects in Public Goods Experiments

Three effects of apparently superficial changes in presentation (framing effects in a broad sense), were replicated together in the same repeated linear public goods experiment with real financial incentives. First, 32 repetitions were presented as four phases of 8 repetitions with a break and results summary in between. Contribution levels decayed during each phase but then persistently returned to about 50% after each re-start. Second, subjects contributed more when the payoff function was decomposed in terms of a gift which is multiplied and distributed to the other players, rather than the equivalent public good from which everyone benefits. Third, subjects contributed more following a comprehension task which asks them to calculate the benefits to the group of various actions (the We frame), rather than the benefits to themselves (the I frame). These results suggest that aspects of presentation may have strong and replicable effects on experimental findings, even when care is taken to make the language and presentation of instructions as neutral as possible. Experimental economists should therefore give careful consideration to potential framing effects—or, better still, explicitly test for them—before making claims about the external validity of results.     

汇率波动、货币政策传导渠道及有效性——兼论"不可能三角"在我国的适用性

本文尝试把人民币汇率波动纳入货币政策中介目标监控体系,采用1996年1季度至2008年2季度的季度数据进行实证检验。研究表明:(1)我国货币政策是通过货币渠道来影响实际经济总量的,并且狭义货币供应量更能实现对实际产出目标的传导和调控;(2)人民币汇率波动的扩大会减少货币供应量;(3)不可能三角在我国是成立的;(4)将人民币汇率波动纳入货币政策中介目标监控体系能提高货币政策的有效性。     

Federal Monetary Policy: A Comment

We comment on an article published in this journal by Hefeker (2003) and reveal an inconsistency in his analysis of monetary policy in federal monetary unions. We clarify an implicit assumption in his model and show that even when this further assumption is met, Hefeker's (2003) claim that a pure majority vote by the regions and the central government results in a monetary authority consisting solely of regionally appointed governors is not generally valid in the context of his model.     

现行国际货币体系与我国货币供给内生性

基于后凯恩斯主义的内生货币供给理论,本文重点从基础货币的角度分析了我国货币供给的内生性,主要结论是:1994年以前,"对金融机构债权"项目的变动是导致我国基础货币投放具有内生性的主要原因,而从1994年开始特别是在2002年以后,则由"国外资产净额"项目即外汇占款的增加主导了我国基础货币的被动投放.进而影响了中央银行对货币供应量的控制能力,使我国货币政策的传导在起点上就缺乏有效性.在现行的国际货币体系下,为减轻货币内生性带来的影响、提高货币政策的有效性,我国应加速人民币国际化进程和建立更具弹性的汇率制度.     

Monetary policy and credit flows

The paper assesses the impact of monetary policy shocks on credit reallocation and evaluates the importance of theoretical monetary policy transmission mechanisms. Compustat data covering 1974 through 2017 is used to compute quarterly measures of credit flows of borrowing firms. I find that expansionary monetary policy is associated with positive long-term credit creation and credit destruction (i.e. credit reallocation). This impact is larger for financially constrained firms and those that are perceived as relatively risky to the lender. This is predicted by the balance sheet channel of monetary policy and mechanisms that reduce lenders’ risk perceptions and increase the tendency to search for yield.     

汇率决定理论的新近发展:文献综述

传统汇率决定理论对于现实经济中汇率实际变动情况的解释能力十分低下.20世纪80年代以来,学术界不断寻求突破,以期为汇率如何决定这一基本命题提供更为合理的解释.在这一过程中,不断有新的文献出现,从不同的方面对传统的汇率理论进行补充、发展和替代.鉴于此,本文试图对汇率决定理论的新近发展进行梳理和介绍,借以为国内经济学界研究汇率决定问题提供一个理论参考.     

On the Effectiveness of Monetary Policy and of Fiscal Policy

There has been a major shift within macroeconomic policy over the past two decades or so in terms of the relative importance given to monetary policy and to fiscal policy in both policy and theoretical terms. The former has gained considerably in importance, with the latter being rarely mentioned. Furthermore, the nature of monetary policy has shifted away from any attempt to control some monetary aggregate (prevalent in the first half of the 1980s), and instead monetary policy has focused on the setting of interest rates as the key policy instrument. There has also been a general shift towards the adoption of inflation targets and the use of monetary policy to target inflation. This paper considers the significance of this shift in the nature of monetary policy. This enables us to question the effectiveness of monetary policy, and to explore the role of fiscal policy. We examine these questions from the point of view of the "new consensus" in monetary economics and suggest that it is rather limited in its analysis. When the analysis is broadened out to embrace empirical issues and evidence the clear conclusion emerges that monetary policy is relatively impotent. The role of fiscal policy is also considered, and we argue that fiscal policy (under specified conditions) remains a powerful tool for macroeconomic policy. This is particularly an apt conclusion under current economic conditions.     

Modelling Anti-inflationary Monetary Targeting in Romania

This paper characterises Romania's experience with anti-inflationary monetary targeting over the period 1999–2005 prior to the country's switch to inflation targeting. We uncover the National Bank of Romania's preferences, conditional on an estimated macro-model. We find that Romania's monetary targeting regime can be characterised by a concern for price stability and an additional role for smoothing of the central bank's instrument (base money growth). Exchange rate variability and output gap stability appear not to significantly enter the National Bank of Romania's objective function.     

前瞻性货币政策反应函数在我国货币政策中的检验

本文在泰勒等西方学者对货币政策反应函数研究的基础上,构造一个适合我国国情的前瞻性货币政策反应函数,从市场利率(同业拆借利率)、管制利率(存贷款利率)以及两者利差三个层次,通过该反应函数对我国货币政策的实证检验结果发现,一方面,该反应函数能够很好地描述同业拆借利率、存贷款利率和两者利差的具体走势,能够为我国货币政策的制定提供一个参考尺度,以衡量货币政策的松紧。另一方面,检验结果表明,三个层次的利率对预期通胀率和预期产出的反应绝大多数都不足,这说明,我国货币政策是一种内在不稳定的货币政策。     

我国货币需求的协整分析及其货币政策建议

本文运用协整以及弱外生和短期因果关系检验 ,对我国货币需求的长期稳定性进行实证 ,由此而产生的主要结论为 :我国货币需求的长期稳定性 (协整 )依赖于时间趋势 ,货币政策目标变量为M1,实际货币政策效应主要体现在促进经济增长。我国货币需求和利率是关于协整向量的弱外生变量。基于上述结论所提出的政策建议为 :当前的货币政策重点应转向于防范通胀     

我国货币中性问题实证分析

运用合理预期下的货币中性假设模型对我国货币中性问题进行了实证分析,认为不论是预期的货币供给冲击,还是非预期的货币供给冲击,对产出的影响基本上都是显著的。因此,货币供给在推动我国的经济运行中起着关键性的作用,而且利用预期的货币政策调控经济运行得到了实证经验的支持。