The Gatekeeper Appraiser's Role in an Era of Higher Energy Prices*

This article discusses the notion of gatekeeper, or opinion leader, appraisers. Because these appraisers are instrumental in disseminating information to other appraisers they are very influential in shaping appraisal practices. A sample of 763 appraisers is used to identify these gatekeepers and to examine their appraisal practices relative to other appraisers. Differences are noted between opinion leaders and non-opinion leaders in the importance attached to and in the use of energy conservation components of real property in appraisals.     

Appraisal-Based Real Estate Returns under Alternative Market Regimes

In this article we use Monte Carlo simulation to study the statistical properties of real estate returns. We set up a model where transactions prices are noisy signals of true prices. We then consider a number of appraisal rules, derived from Bayesian and non-Bayesian theory, to estimate the current true price and rate of return. The class of exponential smoothing and Kalman filter rules perform well at both the disaggregate (returns on an individual property) and aggregate (returns on a real property portfolio) levels. A special case of exponential smoothing (α= 1.0) places all weight on current market data. Since this case eliminates smoothing, our results suggest that appraisers should place all weight on current data (no weight on past data) provided that they want to estimate returns rather than values. However, these results should be used with caution if sales prices are very noisy.     

Appraisers and Valuation Bias: An Empirical Analysis

Using appraisals from a lender across the 2005–2006 period, we find that the association between appraisers’ valuation inflation patterns and work volume varies across states. Moreover, we find a considerable occupational exit for appraisers, and provide evidence that appraisers, as applicants, did not receive better loan pricing compared with the population of applicants. Overall, this article offers novel insights concerning the political economy of financial regulation through the lens of a specific profession.     

Semivariance of Property Value Estimates as a Determinant of Default Risk

Standard practice in the residential mortgage underwriting industry is to estimate collateral values via independent appraisals conducted by third parties. This paper empirically examines the role of property value ( i.e. , appraisal) uncertainty as a determinant of default on residential mortgage loans. Based upon an analysis of 1,428 residential loans drawn from the portfolio of a national mortgage lender, we find evidence that semivariance in property value uncertainty is related to default risk. Specifically, subject properties that are valued above the sales price of recently sold "similar and proximate" properties show evidence of greater default risk. Interestingly, a variance (range) measure of property value uncertainty is not significantly related to default risk.     

The Impact on Housing Values of Restrictions on Rights of Ownership: The Case of an Occupant's Age

With the exception of anecdotal information, little is known about the specific effects on the value of a house because its ownership is restricted to people older than a certain age. This article provides an empirically-derived assessment of the impact on the selling price of single-family residences when their ownership is age restricted. To determine the effect on the sales price of age-restricted houses, a standard hedonic pricing model is applied to a sample of 371 sales transactions drawn from a suburban area of a large city. The results indicate that an age restriction placed on houses decreases their value by 6%. This finding may be of interest to local land-use regulators, developers who are considering developing age-restricted houses and appraisers who wish to make value adjustments to these homes.     

The Nearest Neighbors Appraisal Technique: An Alternative to the Adjustment Grid Methods

This study presents a new appraisal technique, dubbed the Nearest Neighbors Appraisal Technique, which vastly reduces the subjectivity of the traditional adjustment grid methods while eliminating the need to adjust for subject-comparable differences on a piecemeal basis. Any number of appraisers who apply this technique to the same property at the same point in time will get the exact same estimate of value. The technique avoids piecemeal adjustments by capturing all subject-comparable differences in a single measure. Using single-family sales data, the technique is found to be more accurate than any of the adjustment grid methods and hedonic price regression estimation procedures.     

Assessing the Market Value of Real Estate Property with a Geographically Weighted Stochastic Frontier Model

In this study we consider the problem of sellers, buyers and real estate appraisers in determining the price for a house, taking into account the characteristics of the house and its location as well as the goals of these three different parties. The appraiser's job is to determine the fair market value of the house, while the buyer and seller want to find, respectively, the lowest and highest feasible price for it. We combine recent developments in geography and econometrics to develop an approach that determines local estimates of property values from the perspectives of the buyer, seller and appraiser, taking into account the characteristics of the house as well as its location. We illustrate our approach analyzing closing prices in one residential real estate market.     

Price Premium and Foreclosure Risk

Many previous studies identify loan, property, borrower and environmental factors that impact the probability of foreclosure. Implicit in these studies is the assumption that the property was purchased at fair value. We question this assumption based on several empirical findings regarding property value uncertainty. In contrast to previous research, we explicitly quantify the price premium from a hedonic pricing model. Using a comprehensive database of real estate transactions in Singapore during 1989–2000, we document a price premium associated with properties that are subsequently foreclosed based on actual sales transactions. In addition, we find that the premium paid at purchase significantly increases the probability of foreclosure. These results are robust and continue to hold after controlling for other property-specific factors, time-varying macroeconomic conditions, alternative model specifications and definitions of price premium.     

Tracing the source of liquidity for distressed housing markets

We show that profit-seeking institutional investors provide valuable liquidity and spur the recovery of distressed housing markets. Using a quasi-natural experiment wherein investors purchased prepackaged distressed home portfolios from government-sponsored enterprises, we find that transaction prices of properties located within 0.25 miles of bulk-sale properties increased by 1.4% more than homes located farther away. This positive price spillover effect helped reverse the discounts at which such properties were being sold prior to the bulk-sale event. The price spillover effect due to the bulk-sale event is greater for foreclosed homes (4.1%), homes similar to the bulk-sale homes (2.5%), and homes in highly distressed neighborhoods (7.0%). Our results highlight asset disposition through pooling and institutional participation as a potential market-driven channel for the recovery of distressed housing markets.     

The Impact of the Home Valuation Code of Conduct on Appraisal and Mortgage Outcomes

The accuracy of appraisals came into scrutiny during the housing crisis, and a set of policies and regulations was adopted to address the conflict‐of‐interest issues in the appraisal practices. In response to an investigation by the New York State Attorney General's office, the Home Valuation Code of Conduct (HVCC) was agreed to by Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac and the Federal Housing Finance Agency. Using unique data sets that contain both approved and nonapproved mortgage applications, this study provides an empirical examination of the impact of the HVCC on appraisal and mortgage outcomes. The results suggest that the HVCC has led to a reduction in the probability of inflated valuations, although valuations remained on average inflated, and induced a significant increase in the incidence of low appraisals. The well‐intentioned HVCC rule made it more difficult to obtain mortgages to purchase homes during the housing price crash, possibly exacerbating the fall in prices.     

The burgeoning role of iBuyers in the housing market

We examine the iBuyers’ business model and their impact on housing markets. We find that iBuyers tend to enter neighborhoods that have more easily priced and homogeneous homes, as price discovery is simpler and more consistent with their pricing algorithm in those areas. iBuyers purchase homes at lower prices than individual owner-occupiers, and this acquisition discount reflects the benefits iBuyers offer to motivated sellers rather than distressed home purchases or unobserved lower-quality housing characteristics. Last, a greater presence of iBuyers results in a higher volume of local housing transactions and encourages more home sellers to sell without listing.     

A Longitudinal Examination of the Appraisal Smoothing Hypothesis

Appraisal smoothing, the reduced variability of real estate return series, has been attributed to appraisers being influenced by their own previous value estimates. This hypothesis is tested experimentally. Expert apppraisers from Atlanta were asked to value a hypothetical apartment project in Phoenix. Eight months later, these experts were asked to update their original appraisals given certain market and property changes. At this time, an independent group of Atlanta experts was asked to appraise the property based on the updated conditions. Results support the hypothesis of insufficient adjustment from previous value judgments.     

Price dynamics and collusion under short-run price commitments

We consider a dynamic homogeneous oligopoly in which firms set prices repeatedly. Theory predicts that short-run price commitments increase profits and may lead to less price stability. The experiments that we conducted provide support for the first effect and against the second effect when a random ending rule is applied. When a fixed ending rule is applied, we find no significant impact of short-run price commitments on profits and price stability.     

Valuation Bias in Commercial Appraisal: A Transaction Price Feedback Experiment

Experiments were conducted to test the hypothesis that transaction price feedback may bias valuation judgment. Among participating appraisers, evidence of asymmetrical response was found. The group receiving transaction feedback indicating that current judgments were "too low" responded with judgments in subsequent, unrelated valuations that were significantly higher than the group that received no feedback. The response from "too high" feedback was in the expected direction (lower value judgments) but was not significant. Additionally, valuation dispersion of around 10% revealed in these experiments is consistent with studies of valuation variability and may reflect an upper bound of typical commercial appraisal dispersion.     

ADVERSE SELECTION IN ELECTRONIC MARKETS: EVIDENCE FROM ONLINE STAMP AUCTIONS

We analyze adverse selection costs in online stamp auctions, based on a comparison of prices on eBay with those of matched stamps at a specialty stamps auction site in the U.S., Michael Rogers, Inc. (MR), which we know a priori has low quality uncertainty. We find that buyer prices are 10–15% lower on eBay as compared to MR, and the price difference, increases with the value of the stamps. Consistent with this adverse selection discount we find that the seller reputation mechanism on eBay has an economically modest, although statistically significant, effect on auction price and probability of sale.     

The Accuracy of Senior Households’ Estimates of Home Values: Application to the Reverse Mortgage Decision

Using a unique data set of more than 14,000 senior homeowners in the United States, this study compares self‐assessed home values to arm's length contemporaneous appraisals. In a sample of seniors who received counseling for a reverse mortgage, the absolute value of the assessment error averages 18.9% of appraised value and it is biased upwards by 13.4%. When adjusted to reflect the general population of seniors, the size and bias of the average error fall to 16.1% and 4.2%. Both the bias and the size of the error tend to be lower for households with higher income and credit scores but it is greater for black households. In our sample period of 2009–2011, house prices were falling. The greater the rate of price reduction, the greater is the upward bias and size of the assessment error. When seniors who applied for a reverse mortgage learn that they overvalued their home, their probability of closing the loan falls.     

Toward an Evolutionary Theory of Trade Associations: The Case of Real Estate Appraisers

This paper proposes a developmental theory of trade association life cycles with special emphasis on the case of real estate appraisers. Given a neo-institutional perspective of the demand for appraisal services, the paper views real estate appraisers as information specialists. Trade associations tend to develop along a common, although not strictly fixed, set of steps. At each stage, various institutional activities occur that when observed, can be used to characterize the association's rate of development. In this context, real estate appraisers and their institutions are examined. Recent advances provide evidence that major changes are currently underway.     

Loss Aversion and Anchoring in Commercial Real Estate Pricing: Empirical Evidence and Price Index Implications

Loss aversion behavior plays a major role in the pricing of commercial properties, and it varies both across the type of market participants and across the cycle. We find that sophisticated and more experienced investors are at least as loss averse as their counterparts and that loss aversion operated most strongly during the cycle peak in 2007. We also document a possible anchoring effect of the asking price in influencing buyer valuation and subsequent transaction price. We demonstrate the importance of behavioral phenomena in constructing hedonic price indices, and we find that the impact of loss aversion is attenuated at the aggregate market level. This suggests that the pricing and volume cycle during 2001–2009 was little affected by loss aversion.     

Resale price maintenance and restrictions on dominant firm and industry-wide adoption

We consider a model in which firms use resale price maintenance (RPM) to dampen competition. We find that even though the motive for using RPM is thus anti-competitive, market forces may limit the overall adverse impact on consumers. Indeed, we find that when there are a large number of firms in the market, consumer welfare under a laissez-faire policy might be as high or almost as high as it would be under an alternative policy in which RPM is banned. Government interventions that put an upper limit on the extent of industry-wide adoption of RPM can have adverse welfare effects in the model. We further show that proposed guidelines in the United States and Europe may come close to minimizing welfare.