基于地理探测器的内蒙古耕地水资源短缺时空变化特征及驱动力分析

[目的]明晰干旱半干旱区耕地水资源短缺的时空变化特征及驱动因素，是实现区域水资源可持续利用的首要前提，对保障区域乃至全国粮食安全和生态健康有着重要意义。[方法]文章以内蒙古为典型研究区，以水足迹理论为依据，通过构建耕地水资源短缺指数（Arable Land Water Scarcity Index,AWSI），分析2000—2018年内蒙古耕地水资源短缺指数时空格局及变化特征，并进一步借助地理探测器模型定量揭示研究区内气候、植被、地形、人口密度等11个自然和社会经济因素对耕地水资源短缺时空变化的影响差异。[结果]（1）内蒙古耕地水资源短缺指数总体呈西高东低的分布特征，西部耕地缺水压力较大。2000—2018年内蒙古耕地水资源短缺指数呈增加趋势，增加区域占总面积82%以上，主要分布在东部和中部地区。（2）自然因素主要决定内蒙古耕地水资源短缺的空间格局，其影响明显大于社会经济因素，但是2000—2018年社会经济因素的影响力在呈增大趋势。（3）自然因素中以蒸发量、年均温、降水量为主的气候因子在生态探测中共有19组显著差异，占据了影响因子中的主导地位。而在社会经济因素与自然因素的交互作用下，...     

Identify Customer Involvement During Organic Food Purchase Through FCB Grid

The study measures the level of customer involvement related to Organic Food (OF) purchase through FCB Grid. A conceptual model was developed to identify the location of OF in FCB Grid by testing the sequencing of Knowledge, Attitude and Purchase Behavior effects. Two scales were adopted from a study by Ghosh et al. (2016 Ghosh, S., Datta, B., &; Barai, P. (2016). Modeling and promoting organic food purchase. Journal of Food Products Marketing, 22, 623–642. doi:10.1080/10454446.2016.1141138[Taylor &; Francis Online], [Web of Science ®] , [Google Scholar]) to measure Knowledge and Attitude pertaining to organic food. Similar such scale with minor moderation was formed for Purchase behavior. 868 responses were analyzed through Structural Equation Model, which indicates that OF falls on the first quadrant of FCB grid and is a high involvement product. This implies Knowledge drives Attitude and Attitude drives Purchase Behavior and demands informative strategy where economic considerations prevail prior to purchase. Organic food production is a sustainable process and positively impacts the livelihood of marginal farmers and will improve the quality of the soil and health of the consumers.     

An empirical Coasian study on the socio-economic profiles of two politically sensitive informal settlements: Kowloon Walled City and Rennie’s Mill

Informed by the “corollary of Coase Theorem” (Lai and Hung, 2008; Lai et al., 2007), for a better understanding of the self-help post-war development of two politically sensitive and vanished places in Hong Kong, the so-called “Kowloon Walled City” (Lai, 2016; Lai and Chua, 2017; Lau et al., 2018) and Rennie’s Mill (Lan, 2006), which have attracted academic interest but remained under-researched in terms of empirical scrutiny, this study:

• •Identify and compare their institutional arrangements by archival research;
• •identify and compare their development outcomes, as measured by census and other official data including mapping and photographic information, supplemented by published oral history of witnesses; and
• •establish and discuss the relationship between the differences in institutional arrangements and development outcomes in terms of a landlord-tenant analogy.

     

The effects of Mongolia's booming mining industry on its agricultural sector: A test for Dutch disease

Dutch disease occurs when currency strengthening associated with a booming sector of an economy crowds out a lagging trade‐dependent sector. In this study, a Keynesian‐style model is specified to deduce hypotheses about how increased foreign direct investment (FDI) aimed at Mongolia's mining sector affects its agricultural sector. A key finding is that while econometric results suggest the increased FDI strengthened Mongolia's currency, its adverse effect on Mongolia's trade‐sensitive agricultural sector is not sufficiently strong to cause the sector to decline. Although Dutch disease was not detected, the posited mechanism clearly is important. Specifically, when currency strengthening is ignored the reduced‐form elasticity of agricultural value‐added with respect to FDI is 2.7 times larger than when currency strengthening is taken into account (0.103 vs. 0.038). Also, FDI‐induced currency strengthening causes the Keynesian multiplier to drop from 2.40 to 2.00 and the FDI multiplier to drop from 3.05 to 1.89.     

A scale invariant model for the expansion of agricultural land and government spending on the agricultural sector

The expansion dynamics of the agricultural surface is a complex process, since it requires decisions among different actors under a multitude of socioeconomic and natural conditions, expectations, and risks. This paper shows that despite this complexity, and at odds with the intuition, the density of agricultural lands and the government spending to foster agriculture around a human settlement displays a simple power-law relationship regarding the distance to such a settlement. The theoretical proof of this relationship is based on theoretical and empirical findings made by several authors on the expansion of population centers, river networks, species and ecosystem’s distribution. The empirical proof is made by fitting a simple power-law model having as response variables: density of agricultural land; government spending coverage, and government spending per unit of agricultural surface, while the distance to the centroid settlement is used as independent variable. Results show that the scaling exponents of the power-law relationship estimated from those models, with data from rural settlements in Mexico, are similar statistically to the expected values from theoretical models for the three expansion processes tested. Three applications of the scale-invariant attribute characterizing the expansion process of agricultural lands are presented:

• i)monitoring agricultural activities at the territories;
• ii)a proxy to estimate the expected growth of the agricultural surface; and
• iii)a typology to characterize government assistance at local level.

     

Drivers to Nurturance: Application and Extension of FWB in India

The purpose of this paper is to investigate the factors influencing the choice of healthier foods in India through observation of 250 consumers in a feast arranged with most of the millet-based food items, followed by a focus group study of nine selected consumers from the feast. Although much of the work about healthier food choices have been done in the western countries, their replication is not possible for the Indian consumers due to the differences in perception, culture, and consumption patterns. This paper attempts to highlight the importance of indigenous culture of a land in influencing one’s food choice. The findings of the qualitative study match with the Food as Well Being (FWB) dimensions proposed by Block et al., 2011 Block, L. G., Grier, S. A., Childers, T. L., Davis, B., Ebert, J. E., Kumanyika, S., … &; Pettigrew, S. (2011). From nutrients to nurturance: A conceptual introduction to food well-being. Journal of Public Policy &; Marketing, 30(1), 5–13.[Crossref], [Web of Science ®] , [Google Scholar]. Food perception emerged as another important factor from this study and furthermore an extended model of FWB is proposed for the Indian consumers.     

Marketing and Pricing Dynamics in the Presence of Structural Breaks: The Hungarian Pork Market

The study of marketing margins and price transmission on various commodity markets has been a popular research topic of the past decades (see Meyer & Von Cramon-Taubadel, 2004 Meyer , J. , & Von Cramon-Taubadel , S. ( 2004 ). Asymmetric price transmission: A survey . Journal of Agricultural Economics , 55 ( 3 ), 581 – 611 .[Crossref], [Web of Science ®] , [Google Scholar], for a recent survey). However, with a few exception these studies focused on developed economies. This article examines this phenomena on the Hungarian pork market. The Johansen (maximum likelihood, 1988 Johansen , S. ( 1988 ). Statistical analysis of cointegrating vectors . Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control , 12 , 231 – 254 .[Crossref], [Web of Science ®] , [Google Scholar]) or Engle and Granger (2-step, 1987 Engle , R. F. , & Granger , C. W. J. ( 1987 ). Cointegration and error correction: Representation, estimation and testing . Econometrica , 55 , 251 – 276 .[Crossref], [Web of Science ®] , [Google Scholar]) cointegration tests do not reject the no-cointegration null hypothesis between the Hungarian pork producer and retail price series. Therefore, we applied the Gregory and Hansen (1996 Gregory , A. W. , & Hansen , B. E. ( 1996 ). Residual-based tests for cointegration in models with regime shifts . Journal of Econometrics , 70 , 99 – 126 .[Crossref], [Web of Science ®] , [Google Scholar]) procedure with recursively estimated break points and Augmented Dickey Fuller (ADF) statistics and found that the prices are cointegrated with a structural break occurring in April 1996 Gregory , A. W. , & Hansen , B. E. ( 1996 ). Residual-based tests for cointegration in models with regime shifts . Journal of Econometrics , 70 , 99 – 126 .[Crossref], [Web of Science ®] , [Google Scholar]. Exogeneity tests reveal the causality running from producer to retail prices both in the long and short run. Homogeneity tests are rejected, suggesting a markup pricing strategy. Price transmission modeling suggests that price transmission on the Hungarian pork meat market is symmetric in the long run but asymmetric in the short run; that is, processors, wholesalers, or retailers might take temporary advantage should price changes occur.     

Smallholders download and share videos from the Internet to learn about sustainable agriculture

Of 1,211 farmers and their representatives registered on www.accessagriculture.org, 142 participated in an on-line survey in November 2017, designed to learn farmer’s opinions of Access Agriculture, an NGO which hosts a digital platform where anyone can watch or download videos and other information for free. These farmer learning videos all convey practical information on sustainable agricultural innovations, to encourage farmer experiments. Previous experience showed that smallholders liked having their own copy of videos (e.g. on DVD), but this study showed that farmers are now starting to find their own way to the internet to pro-actively search for information. Although some farmers learn about on-line videos by social contacts, most of the farmers found the videos on www.accessagriculture.org by surfing the web. This suggests that limitations of reaching farmers with traditional forms of video distribution (e.g. DVDs and village screenings) will be partly overcome by the Internet. Youth have become the new information brokers for communities, as elders may lack the digital technology skills needed to use the Internet to get agricultural information. To share videos with other community members, youth will benefit from additional tools, such as an app, to allow easy download and sharing with limited data consumption.     

Spatial Integration in the Broiler Market in Peninsular Malaysia

The broiler sector in Peninsular Malaysia is marked by many structural elements of imperfect competition, particularly increasing vertical integration. This study adopts the Enders and Granger (1998 Enders , W. , & Granger , C. W. J. ( 1998 ). Unit root tests and asymmetric adjustment with an example using the term structure of interest rates . Journal of Business and Economic Statistics , 16 ( 3 ), 304 – 311 .[Taylor & Francis Online], [Web of Science ®] , [Google Scholar]) threshold autoregressive model to analyze market integration and pricing efficiency in the broiler sector. Results indicate that market integration exists in the broiler sector in spite of the structural rigidities that are present. However, asymmetries in price transmission are evident between the central market and regional wholesale markets.     

Organic Consumption as a Change of Mind? Exploring Consumer Narratives Using a Structural Cognitive Approach

An innovative qualitative approach to analyze consumer narratives and biographies was applied to gain insight into consumer decision making and dynamic behavioral patterns in the purchase of organic foods. We adapted Gardner's (2004 Gardner , H. ( 2004 ). Changing minds: The art and science of changing our own and other people's minds. Cambridge , MA : Harvard Business School Press . [Google Scholar]) change-of-mind framework to organic food consumption. Regular consumers trust organic products because they believe that they are healthier and tastier than the equivalent nonorganic product. This belief is built upon day after day by their experiences and by word of mouth: a growing stock of information supports their food choice and confidence in organic food. Occasional consumers have strong beliefs about the better taste and the higher quality of organic food in general. The choice to (regularly) buy organic food is a matter of largely unnoticed inner development. The results allow us to draw some conclusions relating to the determinants of the future demand for organic food in Italy.     

Bits and pieces: Forest fragmentation by linear intrusions in India

Linear infrastructure development is an important driver of forest fragmentation leading to habitat and biodiversity loss as well as disruption of critical ecosystem processes. The tropical forests of India are increasingly impacted by infrastructure development. Little quantitative information is available on the extent of fragmentation due to linear infrastructure on these habitats. Here, we quantified fragmentation due to linear infrastructure by studying forest structural connectivity. We compared the existing forest patch characteristics with a scenario that excluded all linear infrastructure. We classified forest patches into three different fragmentation categories that combined information on patch size, inter patch distance and percentage perforations. Results show that power-transmission lines and roads were the most common infrastructure features within forests. We found a 6% increase in the number of forest patches due to the construction of linear infrastructure. Forest patches >10,000 km² in size were severely affected and there was a 71.5 % reduction in the number of such patches. We found that 86 % of the existing forest patches are in the small (median patch size <1 km²) and isolated (a median distance of 155 m) category. The density of linear infrastructure inside protected areas was similar to density in non-protected forested areas. Our results highlight the need to minimize the effects of fragmentation in the future by considering re-routing or bundling of infrastructure. When infrastructure is unavoidable, there is a need to mitigate their potential impacts. The results of this study have been made publicly accessible (https://indiaunderconstruction.com) to provide information on 'where' to avoid future linear infrastructure development and to make informed decisions which can lead to optimally designed local management plans.     

Estimating persistent and transient technical efficiency and their determinants in the presence of heterogeneity and endogeneity

We develop an estimation procedure that generates consistent estimates of the technology parameters, long-run (persistent) and short-run (transient) technical inefficiencies and the marginal effects of their determinants for the stochastic frontier model developed by Colombi et al. (2014, Journal of Productivity Analysis 42, 123) and Kumbhakar et al. (2014, Journal of Productivity Analysis 41, 321). Our approach accounts for three sources of potential endogeneity: (i) unobserved heterogeneity; (ii) simultaneity of input use with both types of technical efficiency; (iii) potential correlation of the noise term with the regressors. Using this approach we examine the effect of direct payments and farm size on the persistent and transient technical efficiency of French crop farms before and after the European Union's Common Agricultural Policy decoupling reform of 2003. Our results show that subsidy payments per hectare of utilised agricultural land had a significant positive effect on persistent technical efficiency and a significant negative effect on transient technical efficiency during the period before decoupling. For the period after the reform, the effect of subsidies is found to be significantly negative for persistent technical efficiency and insignificant for transient technical efficiency. The overall effect of subsidies on technical efficiency is found to be negative in both periods, albeit substantially lower in the period after decoupling. The effect of farm size on technical efficiency is found to be significant only for the period prior to the reform: it reduced persistent technical inefficiency but increased transient technical inefficiency during that period.     

How environmentally (un)sustainable is organic pig production? The Dutch case

Sustainable agriculture is considered as an appropriate alternative to what some would see as the more environmentally harmful conventional agriculture. Among the existing options within sustainable agriculture, organic farming is probably the most widely adopted. Certification of organic products aims to guarantee that organic agriculture rules are satisfied. However, certification does not always relate to sustainable practices. The present work uses database analysis to obtain a general picture of organic pig production in The Netherlands in terms of environmental sustainability. To do so the nitrogen pollution potential and other parameters of the system are evaluated. Farms were divided into four production types: grazing, mixed-vegetable, mixed-husbandry and swine (i.e. pigs). The results presented here reveal that 72% of the farms do not adjust the number of animals to the farm size. Consequently, the production of nitrogen often surpasses the limit stated by the EU (170 kg N ha^?1 y^?1). In general, swinetype farms have smaller farm sizes and are among the most polluting ones. These farms cannot be considered as a land-related production, one of the premises for organic husbandry according to the EU regulation. This illustrates that the fulfilment of the law does not necessarily entail the implementation of organic principles. To address this dilemma, share-land agreements are proposed as an alternative to allow specialized farms to diversify production and support biological cycles within the agroecosystem that emerges from between-farm collaborations.     

Characterisation and Diagnosis of Rural—Urban Interface Farming in the Tu Liem and Thanh Tri Districts of Hanoi City,Vietnam

A research project was carried out in two areas in the outskirts of Hanoi city using a combination of qualitative and quantitative methods. The objective was to study interactions among the vegetable farming systems and the peri-urban context within which they are situated. The farms studied were characterised as small-scale farms that use high inputs of soil amendments and pesticides for diversified crop rotation systems. The main source of irrigation water and nutrients for vegetable farming in southern Hanoi is wastewater from the To Lich River. In northern Hanoi, irrigation water is obtained directly from the Red River and nutrients are supplied through high fertiliser inputs. The concentrations of COD (144–287 mg l^?1), N-NH₄ ⁺ (1–25 mg l^?1), PO₄ ^3? (0.5–4 mg l^?1) and coliform (525 × 10³?28 × 10⁶ MPN 100 ml^?1) along the To Lich River was much higher than the limits specified in the Vietnamese standard for water used in agriculture. A higher Cu content in soil in Phuc Ly seems to be linked to the high input of chicken manure at the site. However, the contents of heavy metals in irrigation water, in vegetables and in the soil surface layer at the two sites were lower than the Vietnamese maximum permissible levels.     

The discrimination of adopters and non-adopters of conservation agricultural initiatives in northwest Iran: Attitudinal,soil testing,and topographical modules

Over the past decades, agro-ecological measures, such as conservation agricultural initiatives (CAIs) have been widely implemented in developing countries, in like manner with Tabriz city as would be a leading case situated in northwest Iran. In light of linear discriminant analysis (LDA), this cross-sectional research calls on a knowledge gap respecting the differentiation of farmers who become involved in CAIs (adopters) from those not involved (non-adopters), as three data modules, including attitudinal, soil testing, and topographical data, were used. The study takes advantage of a sample of 382 respondents, stratified as regards the geographical location of their farms. Using theory-triangulation, the theoretical foundation enfolds demographic theory, the theory of planned behavior, innovation diffusion model, and resource-based model. The results of hierarchical LDA provide evidence that the hypothesized model is entitled to be fitted with data and accordingly three variables including (1) observability, (2) farm revenue, and (3) compatibility ascertain adopter farmers from non-adopter ones. Furthermore, it was revealed that the soil dynamic quality features, such as electrical conductivity, EC, (dS m⁻¹) (Mann-Whitney U = 353, P < 0.05) and organic carbon content, OC (%), (Mann-Whitney U = 935.5, P < 0.05) were significantly different between the two groups of farms, while carbonate calcium equivalent, CCE (%) (Mann-Whitney U = 935.5, P > 0.05) showed no significant differences. Likewise, the topographical data analyzed in ArcGIS software make manifest that CAIs farms have more steady topographic features rather non-CAI farms and are also situated in the regions with a gradient of less than 5%. In conclusion, the paper delivers management implications for the agricultural extension and authorities of the agricultural research centers who tend to promote CAIs in on-site and off-site farmlands.     

LESSONS FROM SWEDISH FARM STRUCTURE POLICY*

This article considers two basic questions:-

• 1 How successful have Swedish structural policies been?
• 2 What light does this shed on the structural policies now The argument is developed in five stages. First the development of structural policies recently operating in Sweden is reviewed and those being introduced in this country are described.

Second, the extent to which structural change can be measured from aggregate data is discussed in general terms and the available data on structural trends in Sweden and the U.K. is reviewed. Thirdly, other forces which affect structural development in Sweden are discussed. Fourth, conclusions as to the past effect of policies on structural change in Sweden are summarised. Finally, some possible results of U.K. structural policies are indicated.     

Spatial–temporal changes in grain input–output and the driving mechanism in China since 1985

Based on Chinese county-level statistic data, this paper reveals spatial–temporal distribution and changing of grain production, by studying gravity centres of grain input–output regions in China from 1985 to 2009. According to the grain output, per-capita grain consumption, and population, the surplus grain of 2864 counties from 1985 to 2009 was calculated. And the counties with surplus grain value greater than zero and smaller than zero were respectively defined as grain input regions and grain output regions; they were respectively analysed by using the model of grain gravity centre. We found that there are four periods of spatial–temporal changing of gravity centres in grain input regions, and five periods in all output regions. According to the moving path of the gravity centres of input–output regions, 1990 was the turning point of completely entering into ‘grain supply from north to south period’. Spatial–temporal changing of grain-sown area and the arable land was the main driving mechanism for the shift in grain input–output gravity centres. The change of spatial pattern of grain production influenced sustainability of grain production from three impacts. And two policy suggestions are put forward to promote the sustainability of grain production.

HIGHLIGHTS

Use the method of gravity centres to research the spatial–temporal changing of surplus grain from 1985 to 2009 in China.

Analyse the spatial–temporal changing and the driving mechanism of gravity centres of grain input–output from 1985 to 2009 in China.

1990 was identified as the turning point of completely entering into ‘grain supply from north to south period’.

Summarize the impact of the changes of spatial pattern of grain production on the sustainability of grain production and put forward two proposals.     

Assessment and improvement of the efficiency of nitrogen use on commercial dairy farms

Nine dairy farmers participated in a project which ran over a four year period from 1997 to 2001, with the aim of improving nitrogen use efficiency (NE) and reducing nitrogen surpluses. Results from systems research and the disadvantages of large nitrogen losses and low NE to the economics of the farm business and the environment were outlined and possible mitigation strategies were discussed with the farmers during visits by a dairy consultant. Initial nitrogen use efficiency (nitrogen output/nitrogen input) ranged from 10% to 23% and nitrogen surplus from 259 to 785 kg N ha¹. During the project nitrogen efficiency improved by an average of 5.4% and nitrogen surpluses reduced by an average of 186 kg N ha¹. The largest changes in nitrogen output per hectare were due to changes in stocking rate rather than changes in milk yield per cow or milk protein content. Nitrogen input was dominated by nitrogen fertilizer input, which for farms applying more than 150 kg N ha¹accounted for between 41% and 85% of total nitrogen input. Reduction in mineral nitrogen fertilizer use was the main way that farmers improved nitrogen efficiency and reduced nitrogen surpluses.