Access to markets,weather risk,and livestock production decisions: Evidence from Ethiopia

Despite several studies showing the effect of access to markets and weather conditions on crop production, we know quite little on whether and how livestock production systems respond to variation in weather risk and access to markets. In this paper, we study whether and how livestock production responds to (access to) markets and varying weather risk. We also explore whether such responses vary across livelihood zones and livestock production systems. We study these research questions using households’ livestock production, ownership, and marketing decisions of households in Ethiopia. We find that households living close to markets are more likely to engage in market-oriented livestock production and use modern livestock inputs. We also find that households exposed to more unpredictable weather are less likely to engage in livestock production for markets, rather they are more likely to engage in livestock production for precautionary savings and insurance. Furthermore, greater rainfall uncertainty influences livestock portfolio allocation toward those which can be easily liquidated while also discouraging investment in modern livestock inputs. However, these responses and patterns vary across livelihood zones and production systems; most of these stylized responses and impacts are more pronounced and significant in the arid and semi-arid lands of Ethiopia, where livestock herding remains a dominant source of livelihood. Those households relying only on livestock production seem more sensitive and responsive to weather risk and weather shocks. The heterogeneity in responses and impacts of weather risk among farming systems and livelihoods highlights the need for more tailored livestock sector policies and interventions.     

Modelling agricultural land use allocation in regional Australia

An analysis of the drivers of agricultural land use is important for policy makers as the issues of climate change and food security become increasingly prominent in the political landscape. This paper analyses the role of prices, total land holdings and climate on land use in Australia. The analysis relates to a unique comprehensive coverage of commodity types at a regional level. An explicit treatment of missing data and the novel use of cluster analysis is employed within a partial adjustment framework for modelling land allocation. The majority of commodity types across regions exhibit significant degrees of slow partial adjustment for land allocation, the frequency of slow adjustment is greatest with crops and livestock and weakest for vegetables. In general, relative own and cross prices, total land holdings and rainfall only have a minor impact on short‐term land allocations, however numerous individual commodity/regional combinations have identified significant short‐run impacts.     

Community-based rural residential land consolidation and allocation can help to revitalize hollowed villages in traditional agricultural areas of China: Evidence from Dancheng County,Henan Province

The accelerated rural hollowing driven by vast and increasing out-migration of rural labors under urban–rural dual-track system has imposed huge obstacles on improving land use efficiency and coordinating urban–rural development in China. Taking Dancheng County in Henan Province as an example, this paper analyzes the status quo of rural hollowing and discusses two typical rural residential land consolidation and allocation (RRLCA) practices in traditional agricultural areas (TAAs) of China. The results show that, Dancheng experienced rapid rural hollowing characterized as the hollowing of rural industries, infrastructure, and residential population and settlements. However, Dancheng has considerable potential and the necessity of RRLCA, for the model-based estimation shows that the potential of increasing farmland by carrying out RRLCA was about 5649 ha. The two community-based RRLCA practices show positive effects on the improvement of local living conditions, increment of farmland area and development of rural industries. Their experiences, including self-organized rural planning, democratic decision-making, and endogenous institutional innovation may benefit future RRLCA. Overall, it indicates that promoting community-based RRLCA scientifically according to local conditions could provide an integrated platform for increasing farmland area, developing modern agriculture, promoting new countryside construction, and thus revitalize hollowed villages. On considering the limitations and obstacles of current initiatives, suggestions for future RRLCA in rural China have been put forward.     

农地城市流转的资源配置方式及效率损失研究

基于资源配置理论,资源合理配置的标准为在既定投入资源不变的条件下,使产出效益最大化,或在产出效益既定的条件下,使投入资源最小化。本文研究表明,政府配置和市场配置下的农地城市流转的数量和价格是不同的,且在完全竞争市场条件下,土地资源的政府配置效率低于市场配置效率,其效率损失为"无效率三角区";计划经济下的政府配置和市场经济下的市场配置,在农地城市流转中的土地资源配置过程中,都存在不同程度的配置失灵和效率损失。     

Preferences for land sales legalization and land values in Ethiopia

This study investigates attitudes towards legalizing land sales and Willingness to Accept (WTA) sales prices and compensation prices for land among smallholder households in the southern highlands of Ethiopia. Household panel data from 2007 and 2012 are used. The large majority of the sample prefers land sales to remain illegal, and the resistance to legalizing land sales increased from 2007 to 2012. While resistance against land sales was strongest among the most land poor in 2007, the relatively more land rich had become more negative towards legalizing land sales in 2012. Younger age and more education were not associated with a more positive attitude towards legalizing land sales. In the same period, perceived median real land values increased sharply but also exhibit substantial local variation with higher land values in areas with better market access. Stated minimum land sales prices increased with farm size in 2012. The substantial increase in perceived land values, high economic growth and outmigration of youth have yet to persuade the rural population in southern Ethiopia to open the land sales market.     

The impact of climate and price risks on agricultural land use and crop management decisions

This article aims to investigate the impacts of climate change and of lower and more volatile crop price levels as currently observed in the European Union (EU) on optimal management decisions, average income and income risks in crop production in Western Switzerland. To this end, a bioeconomic whole-farm model has been developed that non-parametrically combines the crop growth model CropSyst with an economic decision model using a genetic algorithm. The analysis focuses on the farm level, which enables us to integrate a wide set of potential adaptation responses, comprising changes in agricultural land use as well as crop-specific fertilization and irrigation strategies. Furthermore, the farmer's certainty equivalent is employed as objective function, which enables the consideration of not only impacts on average income but also impacts on income variability.The study shows that that the effects of EU crop prices on the optimal management decisions as well as on the farmer's certainty equivalent are much stronger than the effects of climate change. Furthermore, our results indicate that the impacts of income risks on the crop farm's optimal management schemes are of rather low importance. This is due to two major reasons: first, direct payments make up a large percentage of the agricultural income in Switzerland which makes Swiss farmers less vulnerable to market and climate volatility. Second, arable crop farms in Switzerland have by law to cultivate at least four different crops. Due to these diverse cropping systems and high government direct payments risk does neither under climate change, market liberalization nor combinations thereof, play a very decisive role in arable farming in Switzerland.     

Informal government preferences and asymmetric land allocation in China

Whether governments have informal preferences toward firms when allocating land resources and the effects of such preferences on regional development remain unclear, particularly in countries with weak formal institutions. This paper investigates the government’s informal preferences in land allocations in China. Substantial evidence is found that politically connected firms are preferred to win land auctions at lower prices due to two different reasons. These preferences are informally achieved through a two-stage auction mechanism rather than formal bid preference programs, and result in the asymmetrical allocation of urban land in terms of land quality, quantity, and price, across politically and non-politically connected firms in China. The state-owned enterprises are allocated poor quality land parcels at 55% land price discounts. In comparison, the manager-based politically connected firms are allocated regular land parcels at 6% price discounts, and other firms without connections with the government are allocated regular land at higher prices.     

Zionism and agricultural land: National narratives,environmental objectives,and land policy in Israel

The 1990s saw two different and even contradictory trends in Israel. On the one hand, there was a substantial increase in environmental awareness, on the part of both the general public and decision-makers, that led to a change in the land use planning policy at the national level. On the other hand, the Israel Lands Council (ILC), the body empowered by law to shape the national land policy, made a series of decisions that severely violated the principle of preserving agricultural land and led to massive conversion of agricultural land and open space for commercial, industrial, and residential development. Thus the national land policy became incompatible with the land use planning policy and the rise in environmental awareness it reflected.     

土地利用规划中土地利用空间结构和布局研究进展

土地利用空间结构和布局是土地利用规划工作中的关键所在,是决定土地利用规划是否科学合理的重要步骤;开展土地利用空间结构和布局优化研究有利于促进土地资源利用的集约高效,有利于新一轮的土地利用规划修编的编制和实施;综述了目前我国土地利用空间布局相关理论的研究进展,回顾了土地利用空间布局所采取的主要技术和手段,对我国土地利用空间结构和布局研究进行了展望;研究表明：我国土地利用空间布局理论研究有了长足进展,但还未形成严密的科学理论体系;在研究视角上,多注重耕地和基本农田保护,在“统筹兼顾”“以人为本”“理性发展”等方面应加强;在研究方法上,应加强现代数学模型与计算机空间模拟等方法在土地利用规划布局中的应用研究,加强参与式土地利用规划理论和方法研究,与传统的规划研究方法和手段相结合,形成客观、准确、科学的土地利用规划技术体系。     

葫芦岛市耕地数量变化及其驱动力研究

以1998-2007年的统计资料为基础,分析了葫芦岛市近10年的耕地数量变化特点;通过主成分分析法,对引起耕地数量变化的驱动力进行了研究。结果表明,经济发展、人口增长以及农业科技进步是影响葫芦岛市耕地数量变化的三大驱动力;据此提出了葫芦岛市的耕地保护对策。     

Financial drivers of land use decisions: The case of smallholder woodlots in Amhara,Ethiopia

A household survey on the financial drivers of woodlot production was conducted in the Lake Tana watershed of Amhara State, Ethiopia. Analysis of smallholder Eucalyptus globulus Labill. production reveals that converting uneroded over eroded croplands leads to significantly higher financial returns. Returns were also significantly higher for rotation intervals closer to the optimal economic rotation and for higher planting densities. Most woodlots had positive financial returns. The presence of negative financial returns for some households demonstrates that positive ecological externalities, a lack of economies of scale and/or myopic behavior are potentially important factors in land use decision-making. Wood utilization decisions were shown to impact the potential financial returns of households. Smallholders’ activities demonstrate that eucalyptus is an imperfect substitute for agricultural production on surplus cropland. A third of respondents indicated they had intentionally chosen to convert uneroded croplands to achieve higher returns. Smallholders faced constraints in bargaining over price and access to markets. Future land use policies should address marketing constraints and unsustainable land use activities. Harvesting soil from natural forests and the conversion of productive surplus cropland to woodlot production both present long-term sustainability challenges. This study demonstrates the importance of considering economic and social incentives when creating land use policies for smallholder's woodlot production.     

Customary land allocation,urbanization and land use planning in Ghana: Implications for food systems in the Wa Municipality

Food insecurity remains persistent in the Global South due to constraints in food production capacities and intricate land tenure systems that stifle investment in agriculture. In the urbanized regions, uncontrolled urbanization and non-compliant land use systems have further worsened the potentials for urban food production. This research is based on a case study of the Wa Municipality in order to assess the influences of customary land allocation and peri-urbanization on land use planning and foods systems in Ghana using explorative and narrative research approaches. The study identified that customary stakeholders responsible for allocating such lands in the Wa Municipality were indiscriminately converting large tracts of hitherto agricultural lands to urban land uses. Statutorily prepared land use plans are hardly enforced and the planning priorities are on residential and commercial land uses that command higher land values to the detriment of agricultural lands. Weak institutional linkages also characterize the mandated planning and land administration institutions, with a planning system that is reactive rather than proactive in addressing development control challenges across the country. There is the need for planning authorities to adopt participatory land uses planning together with customary landholders and educating them on the essence of comprehensive land use planning approaches. Based on the findings, local governments need to partner landowners to identify and reserve high potential agricultural land for sustainable urban food production.     

Cultivated land conversion and potential agricultural productivity in China

In China there is a growing debate on the role of cultivated land conversion on food security. This paper uses satellite images to examine the changes of the area of cultivated land and its potential agricultural productivity in China. We find that between 1986 and 2000 China recorded a net increase of cultivated land (+1.9%), which almost offset the decrease in average potential productivity, or bioproductivity (−2.2%). Therefore, we conclude that conversion of cultivated land has not hurt China's national food security. We also argue that more recent change in cultivated area likely has had little adverse effect on food security.     

Optimal allocation of direct and embodied arable land associated to urban economy: Understanding the options deriving from economic globalization

Land resources do not flow directly but can be allocated as “embodied land” in goods and services during economic globalization. The term “embodied arable land” can help link local land allocation strategies to the global and national supply chains and trade activities, and suggest new lens in optimizing arable land allocation. China is facing a serious arable land shortage, especially in municipal administrative areas. Based on the nested input-output analysis (Nested IOA), this work takes Shanghai as an example, exploring the allocation of direct and embodied arable land of an urban economy within the process of economic globalization. The amount of embodied arable land associated with Shanghai economy is 6.09 Mha, broken down into local arable land use (0.20 Mha), domestic inflows (3.20 Mha) and foreign inflows (2.69 Mha). This area supports local final demand (4.32 Mha), domestic outflows (1.24 Mha) and foreign outflows (0.53 Mha). Land-related imbalances emerge in the study, namely the economy’s demand versus the city’s size, the arable land demand versus supply, and embodied arable land inflows versus outflows. Regarding the role of the urban economy in allocation of global arable land under economic globalization, on the one hand, Shanghai has intensively involved with a large amount of embodied foreign arable land resources, and has been heavy dependent on foreign embodied arable land; On the other hand, there is still large potential for Shanghai to take the opportunity of economic globalization for an optimal allocation of direct and embodied arable land. Policy suggestions on taking the opportunity of economic globalization for an optimal allocation of direct and embodied arable land are put forward.     

Evidence of climate change impacts on crop comparative advantage and land use

Relative agricultural productivity shocks emerging from climate change will alter regional cropland use. Land allocations are sensitive to crop profits that in turn depend on yield effects induced by changes in climate and technology. We develop and apply an integrated framework to assess the impact of climate change on agricultural productivity and land use for the U.S. Northern Great Plains. Crop-specific yield–weather models reveal crop comparative advantage due to differential yield impacts of weather across the region's major crops, that is, alfalfa, wheat, soybeans, and maize. We define crop profits as a function of the weather-driven yields, which are then used to model land use allocation decisions. This ultimately allows us to simulate the impact of climate change under the RCP4.5 emissions scenario on land allocated to the region's major crops as well as to grass/pasture. Upon removing the trends effects in yields, climate change is projected to lower yields by 33–64% over 2031–2055 relative to 1981–2005, with soybean being the least and alfalfa the most affected crops. Yield projections applied to the land use model at present-day input costs and output prices reveals that Dakotas’ grass acreage will increase by up to 23%, displacing croplands. Wheat acreage is expected to increase by up to 54% in select southeastern counties of North Dakota and South Dakota, where maize/soy acreage had increased by up to 58% during 1995–2016.     

Dynamics and resource use efficiency of agricultural land sales and rental market in India

In a populous developing country such as India, developmental interventions are often woven around land, as this is the most critical resource in the livelihood support system of rural communities. In such a socio-economic environment, land has multiple uses. It is the most important source of income, a symbol of social status and prestige, and has very high collateral value for resource poor farm families. In these countries, the migration of rural workers to urban centers in search of employment, coupled with universal individual inheritance characteristics of land ownership, perpetuates the fragmentation of land holdings. In the majority of such cases, the point has been reached where land has become uneconomic and non-viable for cultivation. For farmers left with uneconomic land holdings there are only three options available; sell the land, rent it out, or lease land from others. In such scenarios land lease and land market policies assumes critical importance.     

The effect of land use regulations on farmland protection and non‐agricultural land conversions in China

This paper examines the effect of the Prime Farmland Protection Regulation in protecting high quality farmland from urban development and the subsequent effect on non‐farmland conversion in China in the first decade after the Regulation came into effect (1995‐2005). The empirical evaluation is conducted with geo‐referenced panel data for the entire country. Results indicate that the rate of farmland conversion was reduced during 1995‐2000. About two‐fifths of the reduction results from the protection of farmland with high grain productivity. There is no evidence of the effectiveness of the Regulation in protecting farmland during the period 2000–2005, regardless of land quantity or quality. Farmland development was accompanied by a reduction in forests and grasslands during the period from 1995 through to 2005.