Methods, results and policy implications of poverty and food security mapping assessments

The importance of poverty reduction to the world development agenda has motivated greater interest in the geographic dimensions of poverty and food security. This special issue of Food Policy includes examples of poverty and food security mapping used to support policy development in agricultural and rural areas. The volume includes eight country case studies and one cross-country comparison that illustrate advances in our capacity to assess welfare over large areas and at detailed spatial resolutions. Poverty mapping facilitates assessments of the role of environmental factors on the broad spatial pattern of poverty and food security. Evaluating proximity and accessibility in welfare outcomes can improve our knowledge of poverty patterns and processes. Spatial statistics can enhance our understanding of geographic and neighbourhood effects on poverty and food security outcomes. The development of effective policies requires increased collaboration among stakeholders, researchers and policy makers in constructing and using poverty and food security maps.     

Are SNAP benefits adequate? A geographical and food expenditure decomposition

The Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program (SNAP) provides resources to supplement household food expenditures in order to achieve a nutritious diet. Determining the amount of support required - or extent of food expenditure poverty -- entails comparing available resources for food to a nutrition-determined threshold. Clearly the value of the threshold will affect the degree of food expenditure poverty. If the threshold value is inaccurate, the calculated degree of poverty will be inaccurate. USDA uses a threshold for setting SNAP benefits that does not vary geographically or temporally, so consequently (food expenditure) poverty may be understated or overstated in different regions and time periods. This article compares food expenditure poverty estimates for SNAP participants when geographical differences in the threshold are ignored versus not ignored. In addition, the article decomposes household food expenditures into Food-Away-From-Home (FAFH), Food-at-Home (FAH), personal funded FAH, and SNAP funded FAH in order to assess the degree to which each of these contribute to reducing food expenditure poverty. The general findings are that all food expenditure poverty measures are worse when geographical differences are taken into account. In addition, the analysis shows that FAH expenditures, and in particular SNAP FAH expenditures, contribute the most to reducing food expenditure poverty in SNAP households. The policy implications are that food expenditure poverty is currently underestimated in the US by ignoring geographical differences in thresholds, but the food expenditure poverty would be even worse without SNAP benefits. Geographical adjustments to the national threshold could help reduce food expenditure poverty across regions.     

Agricultural growth,poverty, and nutrition in Tanzania

Rapid economic growth does not appear to have significantly improved poverty and nutrition outcomes in Tanzania. We link recent production trends to household incomes using a regionalized, recursive dynamic computable general equilibrium and microsimulation model. Results indicate some inconsistency between recent growth and poverty measurements in Tanzania. We also find that the structure of economic growth may have constrained the rate of poverty reduction. Agricultural growth has been driven by larger-scale farmers who are less likely to be poor; and has been concentrated among crops grown in specific regions of the country. Slow expansion of food crops and livestock also explain the weak relationship between agricultural growth and nutrition outcomes. We find that accelerating agricultural growth, particularly in maize, strengthens the growth–poverty relationship and enhances households’ caloric availability, while also contributing significantly to growth itself.     

The impact of household food consumption data collection methods on poverty and inequality measures in Niger

Many countries are faced with the problem of monitoring poverty indicators when different food data collection methodologies have been used in national household surveys over the years. This paper provides a comprehensive analysis of this problem in the case of Niger. The paper assesses the impact of three methods of food data collection on the welfare distribution, and poverty and inequality measures in Niger. The study leverages a food consumption experiment to evaluate the three methods of food data collection implemented in the country’s most recent national household surveys. The first method was 7-day recall, the second was usual month, and the third was 7-day diary. The study finds that there was a large difference in measures of consumption and poverty between the first two methods (which yielded similar results) and the 7-day diary method. Annual per capita consumption from the 7-day recall method was, on average, 28 percent higher than that from the 7-day diary method. This gap exists not only at the mean of the distribution, but at every level. The observed differences in measured annual per capita consumption leads to differences in poverty and inequality measures even when alternate poverty lines are used.     

You are what (and where) you eat: Capturing food away from home in welfare measures

Consumption of food away from home is rapidly growing across the developing world, and will continue to do so as GDP per person grows and food systems evolve. Surprisingly, the majority of household surveys have not kept up with its pace and still collect limited information on it. The implications for poverty and inequality measurement are far from clear, and the direction of the impact cannot be established a priori. This paper exploits rich data on food away from home collected as part of the National Household Survey in Peru, to shed light on the extent to which welfare measures differ depending on whether food away from home is accounted for or not. Peru is a relevant context, with the average Peruvian household spending over a quarter of their food budget on food away from home since 2010. The analysis indicates that failure to account for this consumption has important implications for poverty and inequality measures as well as the understanding of who the poor are. First, accounting for food away from home results in extreme poverty rates that are 18 percent higher and moderate poverty rates that are 16 percent lower. These results are also consistent, in fact more pronounced, with poverty gap and severity measures. Second, consumption inequality measured by the Gini coefficient decreases by 1.3 points when food away from home is included – a significant reduction. Finally, the inclusion of food away from home results in a reclassification of households across poor/non-poor status – 20 percent of the poor are different, resulting in small but significant differences in the profile of the poor in dimensions such as demographics, education, and labor market characteristics. Taken together, the results indicate that a serious rethinking of how to deal with the consumption of food away from home in measuring well-being is urgently needed to properly estimate and understand poverty around the world.     

Agriculture reform and food crisis in Syria: Impacts on poverty and inequality

The paper pursues a twofold objective. From a methodological viewpoint it shows how to carry out an impacts evaluation of exogenous shocks on poverty and inequality in a context characterised by out-of-equilibrium, poorly-adjusting markets, as it is the case in many developing countries, using a social accounting matrix framework. From an empirical viewpoint it provides an assessment of how the cereal price spikes of 2007–2008 and the global recession of 2008–2009 have impacted the welfare of Syrian households and how did they compound with the on-going agricultural sector liberalisation implemented by the Government of Syria since mid 1990s. This will contribute to shed some lights on the economic background behind the spreading of unrest across the country over the last couple of years or so.The results show that liberalisation impacts are very different and largely affected by the adopted budget closure rules. While reforms aiming at reducing agricultural market distortions (such as production subsidies and price support for strategic crops) could generally have a positive effect on growth, poverty and inequality, the elimination of food security interventions (such as food stamp schemes) determines an adverse distributional impact against rural household and an increase of poverty. The recent macroeconomic shocks (food price crisis and the global recession) determined a generalised poverty increase and showed an income distribution bias against rural households.Three fundamental policy implications can be drawn by this study. First, the liberalisation of agricultural sector shows a significant growth potential and is likely to determine positive effects on poverty through a generalised increase of incomes as well as public budget savings that could be used for pursuing other policy goals. Second, in the short-run there is a structural trade-off between equity improvements and poverty alleviation: the policy options that will more likely reduce absolute poverty show undesirable distributive biases (both on overall inequality and on rural households vis-à-vis urban households). Third, the reform should include a careful design of the use of budget savings, mainly to address equity goals that are likely to be generated, in the short-run, by liberalisation.     

Commodity prices, trade, and poverty in Uruguay

The 2006-2008 food price spike raised concerns about the impact of high commodity prices on poverty in developing countries. This paper addresses these concerns in relation to Uruguay, a small country that exports agricultural commodities and imports fuels. Applying a general equilibrium model, we find that, as a whole, an increase in commodity prices has a positive effect on the economy of Uruguay. Benefits obtained through a growth in export activities are partially outweighed by an increase in crude oil prices. In this context, extreme poverty increases. As in other countries, the increase in food prices affects the already poor population, who become even poorer. This fact highlights the need for policies that mitigate the negative effects of price shocks.     

The power of the vegetable patch: How home-grown food helps large rural households achieve economies of scale & escape poverty

This paper explores how the household’s capacity to grow food impacts their ability to achieve economies of scale in food consumption and how this impacts the geographic distribution of poverty across rural and urban areas. An accurate understanding of consumption economies of scale is vital for comparing poverty levels across households of varying size. Using Sri Lankan data on home-grown food consumption, we empirically confirm that such economies of scale exist and that large households tend to consume relatively more home-grown food than smaller households. The magnitude of these scale economies are found to be larger than those in market purchased food, but smaller than those found in housing expenditure. Consuming more home-grown food is also found to be positively correlated with per-capita calories consumed. Taking these effects into account in poverty estimates leads to a 15 per cent decline in the number of household who fall below the poverty line in rural regions.     

Do poverty and poor health and nutrition increase the risk of armed conflict onset?

We analyze the effects of improving the economic, food security and health status on the risk of armed cotntectflict onset, focusing on the factors related to the millennium development goals. We employ the discrete-time hazard model that allows us to examine the time-varying effects of socioeconomic factors controlling for the reverse effect of conflict. Our results show that income poverty and poor health and nutritional status are more significantly associated with armed conflict onset than GDP per capita, annual GDP growth, and the ratio of primary commodity exports over GDP. In particular, poor health and nutritional status seems to play a key role in inducing armed conflicts in poor countries. These results indicate that, when a majority of the poor and the malnourished resides in rural areas and depends on agriculture directly or indirectly, investments in public goods for agriculture and rural areas can be effective tools to achieve the multiple goals of reduced poverty, food security and armed conflict, including riots in early 2008 triggered by high food prices. Food policy can be an effective element of efforts to maintain stability.     

Food insecurity,poverty and the Malawian Starter Pack: Fresh start or false start?

Chronic food insecurity and chronic poverty are closely related in Malawi. Since independence in 1964 national food security has been a key policy objective. However, until the 1990s less emphasis was placed on the household dimensions of food security and its links with chronic poverty. In the last decade a number of initiatives have been used in Malawi to tackle the issue of household food insecurity. One of the most controversial has been the Starter Pack programme launched in 1998. Initially consisting of a free handout of packs of improved maize seed, legumes and fertiliser to every small holder farm household in Malawi the scheme, under donor pressure, was subsequently scaled down to become a form of targeted social safety net programme. This paper analyses the strengths and weakness of both the original programme and its scaled down version and assesses the reason for the considerable opposition to the programme from Malawi’s donor community. Although Starter Pack is no longer operative in Malawi the Malawian experience is used to derive lessons for other countries where household food insecurity is an important dimension of chronic poverty.     

Urban agriculture,poverty, and food security: Empirical evidence from a sample of developing countries

Urban agriculture may have a role to play in addressing urban food insecurity problems, which are bound to become increasingly important with the secular trend towards the urbanization of poverty and of population in developing regions. Our understanding of the importance, nature and food security implications of urban agriculture is however plagued by a lack of good quality, reliable data. While studies based on survey data do exist for several major cities, much of the evidence is still qualitative if not anecdotal. Using a recently created dataset bringing together comparable, nationally representative household survey data for 15 developing or transition countries, this paper analyzes in a comparative international perspective the importance of urban agriculture for the urban poor and food insecure. Some clear hints do come from our analysis. On the one hand, the potential for urban agriculture to play a substantial role in urban poverty and food insecurity reduction should not be overemphasised, as its share in income and overall agricultural production is often quite limited. On the other hand, though, its role should also not be too easily dismissed, particularly in much of Africa and in all those countries in which agriculture provides a substantial share of income for the urban poor, and for those groups of households to which it constitutes an important source of livelihoods. We also find fairly consistent evidence of a positive statistical association between engagement in urban agriculture and dietary adequacy indicators.     

Spatial patterns of rural poverty and their relationship with welfare-influencing factors in Bangladesh

This study determines the spatial variation of rural poverty in Bangladesh and its relation to people’s livelihood assets affecting their ability to procure food. We estimated household income for over 1 million census households using a predictor model based on a nationally representative sample survey data set. We computed and mapped poverty indices for 415 rural subdistricts revealing distinct areas with high poverty incidence that correspond with ecologically depressed areas. However, other livelihood-influencing factors such as education, accessibility and services are significantly correlated with poverty. This indicates the need for continued focus on providing education and access to income-generating opportunities so that the poor can better meet their food needs. Geographically weighted regression analysis indicated spatial differences in the relative importance of various poverty-influencing factors. Multivariate clustering of the local parameter (β) estimates of the determinant factors revealed distinct spatial relationships, which have implications on poverty alleviation interventions specific to the different regions.     

Targeting agricultural research based on potential impacts on poverty reduction: Strategic program priorities by agro-ecological zone in Nigeria

Growing concern for poverty in the face of declining agricultural research budgets has increasingly required formal priority setting of public agricultural research in developing countries to ensure that scarce research resources are allocated in ways that will have the greatest impact on the poor. This paper assessed the potential impacts of alternative commodity research programs on poverty reduction in three agro-ecological zones of Nigeria and identified strategic agricultural research priorities in the three zones. The paper discusses the poverty reduction-based priorities and their role in facilitating dialogue between research managers and policymakers aimed at sharpening the focus of agricultural research to achieve poverty reduction objectives in Nigeria.     

Food environment in the United States as a complex economic system

The food environment in the United States is complex. Sixteen socio-economic-demographic variables from various public data sources are studied with a machine learning algorithm to ascertain the causality structure associated with the food environment in the United States. High levels of unemployment and poverty are direct causes of high levels of food insecurity, while low income causes high levels of food insecurity via increased levels of poverty. Unemployment is a common cause for both increased levels of food insecurity and poverty. We find that food insecurity and participation in Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program (SNAP) are related, yet no direct causality is observed. Contrary to past studies which find that SNAP participation decreased the occurrences of poverty, in contemporaneous time, we find that poverty and SNAP participation are related through several back-door paths, via food insecurity, unemployment, race and food taxes. Obesity and SNAP participation are indirectly related via several back-door paths, namely, race income, poverty and food insecurity and unemployment. Also, food insecurity and obesity are related by several back-door paths. Low income, high food taxes, and race (being Black and non-Hispanic) are direct causes of obesity. The complex causality structure in the US food environment reveals that policy variables cannot be treated independently of their rich causal structure. Government agencies responsible for designing policies for food assistance, poverty alleviation, combating food insecurity and obesity need to consider the interrelationships among these variables.     

Impact of food inflation on poverty in the Philippines

We simulate the impact of food inflation between June 2006 and June 2008 on poverty across different areas and between agricultural and non-agricultural households. We explicitly treat the spatial heterogeneity in food inflation and the differences in consumption and production patterns across households by merging household expenditure survey and price datasets at the provincial level or lower. Although some of the poor agricultural households may have escaped poverty, the poorest of the poor, whether they are in an agricultural household or not, are severely and adversely affected by the food inflation.     

The impact of agricultural research on productivity and poverty in sub-Saharan Africa

While it is widely recognized that agricultural research is a key driver of broad-based technological change in agriculture that benefits the poor in many different ways, little is known about its aggregate impacts on productivity growth and poverty reduction in sub-Saharan Africa (SSA). Using a polynomial distributed lag structure for agricultural research within a simultaneous system of equations framework, this paper first demonstrates that agricultural research contributes significantly to productivity growth in SSA. Productivity growth is again shown to raise per capita incomes, with income increases finally having significant poverty-reducing effects. With an aggregate rate of return of 55%, the payoffs to agricultural research are also impressive. Agricultural research currently reduces the number of poor by 2.3 million or 0.8% annually. While the actual impacts are not large enough to more than offset the poverty-increasing effects of population growth and environmental degradation, the potential impacts of agricultural research are far greater. Apart from low research investments, SSA faces several constraints outside the research system that hinder realization of potential research benefits. The results show that doubling research investments in SSA would reduce poverty by 9% annually. However, this would not be realized without more efficient extension, credit, and input supply systems.     

Poverty effects of food price escalation: The importance of substitution effects in Mexican households

Recent food price increases reportedly caused significant numbers of households to fall into poverty, particularly in the developing world. Most research into the welfare effects of these food price changes assumes constant demand or approximates second order substitution effects. Poverty forecasts with these assumptions may overestimate or underestimate the effect of food price increases in a nation where most households consume diverse food baskets. We account for full substitution by calculating a theoretically consistent food demand system, accounting for household responses to food price changes by decreasing some food purchases and increasing other food purchases. We use Mexican data to confirm the mitigation of adverse welfare effects from food price increases after accounting for country-specific dietary preferences in modeling demand. In comparison to previous literature, our welfare measures predict theoretically consistent numbers of Mexican households entering poverty due to recent food price changes.     

Harnessing digital technologies for poverty reduction. Evidence for low-income and lower-middle income countries

This paper contributes to understanding the relationship between ICT deployment and poverty alleviation in developing countries. It assess the digital technologies contribution to poverty reduction, through different channels of impact, like education, labor market, income and ICT-trade related activities.Using the sample of 40 developing countries between 1990 and 2019, it relies on macro data extracted from the World Bank Development Indicators (2021) and the World Telecommunication/ICT Indicators Database (2020). Methodological framework combines time trend analysis and locally weighted polynomial smoother, logistic growth model, and panel regression modelling techniques. Our major findings suggest growing ICT deployment, school enrolments, and increases in material wealth are significant drivers of poverty eradication in developing economies. However, the impact of digitalization on poverty is neither direct nor immediate. Therefore, we claim that national and local authorities, together with civil society must consider ICT as a key element of their broad development strategies.     

Poverty, food security, and nutrition in Central Asia: a case study of the Kyrgyz Republic

This paper attempts to provide insights into poverty, food insecurity, and malnutrition in Central Asia in the period following independence, and presents the available evidence from household-level data in the Kyrgyz Republic. It finds that although some improvement has been made in recent years, significant levels of poverty, food insecurity, and child malnutrition still exist. The paper argues that, in the short run, efforts should be made to protect vulnerable groups by investing in information generation and building capacity to design and implement food security and nutrition policies and programs. Increasing the speed of policy reforms and investment in productivity-enhancing agricultural research and rural infrastructure are fundamental for long-tern sustainable development in Central Asia.     

Monetary policy and food inflation in South Africa: A quantile regression analysis

Although optimal monetary policy stabilizes food inflation theoretically, empirical studies remain limited not only in the context of volumes and the estimation approaches, but are focused on selected advanced and emerging countries to the neglect of Africa where poverty and dominance of food in the consumption basket are more pronounced. We provide empirical evidence in the context of South Africa using quantile regressions. Rising food prices are destabilized even further by restrictive monetary policy; a finding that has ramifications for inflation targeting, especially given that a quarter of the country’s population is food poor.