Alternatives to calorie-based indicators of food security: An application of machine learning methods

Identifying food insecure households in an accurate and cost-effective way is important for targeted food policy interventions. Since predictive accuracy depends partly on which indicators are used to identify food insecure households, it is important to assess the performance of indicators that are relatively easy and inexpensive to collect yet can proxy for the “gold standard” food security indicator, calorie intake. We study the effectiveness of different variable combinations and methods in predicting calorie-based food security among poor households and communities in rural Bangladesh. We use basic household information as a benchmark set for predicting calorie-based food security. We then assess the gain in predictive power obtained by adding subjective food security indicators (e.g., self-reported days without sufficient food), the dietary diversity score (DDS), and the combination of both sets to our model of calorie-based food security. We apply machine learning as well as traditional econometric methods in estimation. We find that the overall predictive accuracy rises from 63% to 69% when we add the subjective and DDS sets to the benchmark set. Our study demonstrates that while alternative indicators and methods are not always accurate in predicting calorie intake, DDS related indicators do improve accuracy compared to a simple benchmark set.     

Egypt: Food security and food aid

This article examines the multifaceted notions of food security and food aid through a case-study of a rather exceptional country in political terms - Egypt. Egypt has achieved a high degree of food security with lessened reliance on domestic production and has become one of the largest recipients of cereal food aid. The analysis considers significant questions about the interdependence of food security and food aid, the maintainability of an externally dependent food system, its implicit resource costs and its internal distribution and equity impact.     

A choice experiment model for beef: What US consumer responses tell us about relative preferences for food safety,country-of-origin labeling and traceability

Several food safety issues have prompted questions regarding the role of country-of-origin labeling, traceability, and food safety inspections in consumers’ perceptions of food safety and quality. The importance of origin-labeling and traceability have been discussed in the EU for some time. North American cases of mad cow disease have led to increased discussions of these topics in the US, however, relatively little research has been conducted to examine the value US consumers place on these attributes. Choice experiments were used to analyze US consumers’ relative preferences and willingness-to-pay for these meat attributes in labeled ribeye beef steaks. Relatively speaking, consumers value certification of USDA food safety inspection more than any of the other choice set attributes, including country-of-origin labeling, traceability and tenderness. As a result, indication of origin may only become a signal of enhanced quality if the source-of-origin is associated with higher food safety or quality.     

Wheat markets,food aid and food security in Afghanistan

In Afghanistan, after two decades of civil strife and successive droughts from 1998 to 2002, large inflows of food aid, distributed mainly to returning refugees and through food for work programs, have helped offset production shortfalls of wheat, the country’s major staple. At the same time, private international trade from neighboring countries, especially Pakistan, has also played a major role in augmenting wheat supply and stabilizing prices.     

Climate risk management strategies and food security: Evidence from Cambodian rice farmers

This study investigates the adoption of three climate-resilient strategies (3CRS), drought/flood-resistant rice varieties, integrated pest management (IPM) practices, and weather advisory; the impact of 3CRS on food security, namely, productivity and profits of the Cambodian paddy farmers. Using endogenous switching regression (ESR) approach and household survey from Cambodian farmers, the study finds a low adoption rate (14%) of 3CRS. The low adoption of 3CRS means missing opportunities for rice farmers. Access to information through training and input suppliers is found to increase the adoption of 3CRS. The adoption of 3CRS increases rice yields and profits by 36% and 45%, respectively. Additionally, if nonadopters adopted 3CRS, rice yields and profits would increase by 55% and 52%, respectively. Findings suggest the development of institutional capacity, implementation, and dissemination of knowledge of climatic changes, and adaptation strategies to increase food security.     

Risk perceptions and food-handling practices in the home

Unsafe food-handling practices in the home are linked with foodborne illnesses that represent sizable costs on the US healthcare industry and welfare losses to households. Past consumer food-safety education programs have only been modestly successful. Optimism bias may distort food-safety risk perceptions encouraging participation in risky food behaviors. Using multiple years of the FDA Food Safety Survey data, we explore the link between behavior-specific risk perceptions and three food-handling practices: handwashing, avoiding cross-contamination, and proper refrigeration of cooked foods. This approach describes risk perceptions as endogenous variables and allows for the decomposition of factors that directly influence food-safety behaviors, from those that indirectly influence behavior by changing risk perceptions. Our results suggest well-designed targeted information campaigns aimed at improving people’s safe food-handling practices must first decrease people’s optimism in the safety of their current practices. Given the lack of regulatory options to influence behavior in the home, this may provide an effective tool to address issues in performing safe food handling.     

The system-wide impact of healthy eating: Assessing emissions and economic impacts at the regional level

Encouraging consumers to shift their diets towards a lower meat/lower calorie alternative has been the focus of food and health policies across the world. The economic impacts of such changes on regions have been less widely examined, but are likely to be significant, especially where agricultural and food production activities are important for the region. In this study we use a multi-sectoral modelling framework to examine the environmental and economic impacts of such a dietary change, and illustrate this using a detailed model for Scotland. We find that if household food and drink consumption follows healthy eating guidelines, it would reduce both Scotland’s “footprint” and “territorial” emissions, and yet may be associated with positive economic impacts, generating a “double dividend” for both the environment and the economy. The economic impact however depends critically upon how households use the income previously spent on higher meat/higher calorie diets. Furthermore, the likely (but not modelled) benefits to health suggest the potential for a “triple dividend”.     

Trade liberalization and food security in Nepal

Among South Asian countries, Nepal liberalized most extensively during the 1980s and 1990s on both domestic and external fronts. In South Asia, Nepal has the lowest per capita income, highest dependence of population on agriculture and second highest poverty rate. At the same time, Nepal has the lowest average tariffs in South Asia and has taken several steps to downsize its public food distribution system and remove a host of agricultural subsidies. The outcomes from these policy reforms in Nepal are mixed. Aggregate indicators of food sufficiency and security (per capita food availability, extent of malnourishment) show improvement in Nepal since liberalization. Relative to other South Asian countries, Nepal is doing better on some indicators, like extent of undernourished population, while on other indicators, like stunting of children, Nepal is actually doing the worst. More importantly, the gains from liberalization across regions in Nepal have been uneven. The reason for such an uneven outcome is lack of complementary policies from the government that would lead to spatial integration of markets (e.g. the creation of physical and marketing infrastructure). Liberalization has in effect reinforced the ex-ante hierarchy across regions in Nepal. The paper then reviews the role and reform of the Nepal Food Corporation (NFC) within this broader context.     

Food aid,domestic policy and food security: Contrasting experiences from South Asia and sub-Saharan Africa

Food aid, both for short-term emergency relief and as program food aid that helps address medium-term food “deficits”, is often a major component of food security strategies in developing countries. This study reviews the experience with food aid of four major recipients of food aid (India, Bangladesh, Ethiopia and Zambia) regarding food production, trade, markets, consumption and safety nets, as well as the policy responses to food emergencies. The widely varying experiences of the study countries suggest that food aid that supports building of production and market enhancing infrastructure, is timed to avoid adverse price effects on producers, and is targeted to food insecure households can play a positive role in enhancing food security. However, food aid is not the only, or in many cases, the most efficient means of addressing food insecurity. In many cases private markets can more effectively address shortfalls in food availability and cash transfers may be a viable alternative to food transfers in-kind.     

Postmodern conceptualizations,modernist applications: Rethinking the role of society in food security

Food security studies, while giving ever more attention to issues of perception and local knowledge in food outcomes, have yet to engage in a systematic discussion of the role played by society in food outcomes. While contemporary studies of food outcomes address issues of the social, especially as social structures relate to access to and production of food, this literature lacks an accompanying theory of the social that might lend it broad, cross-contextual coherence.     

Regional trade,government policy and food security: Recent evidence from Zambia

Given heavy dependence on rainfed maize production, countries in East and Southern Africa must routinely cope with pronounced production and consumption volatility in their primary food staple. Typical policy responses include increased food aid flows, government commercial imports and stock releases, and tight controls on private sector trade. This paper examines recent evidence from Zambia, using a simple economic model to assess the likely impact of maize production shocks on the domestic maize price and on staple food consumption under alternative policy regimes. In addition to an array of public policy instruments, the analysis evaluates the impact of two key private sector responses in moderating food consumption volatility – private cross-border maize trade and consumer substitution of an alternate food staple (cassava) for maize. The analysis suggests that, given a favorable policy environment, private imports and increased cassava consumption together could fill roughly two-thirds of the maize consumption shortfall facing vulnerable households during drought years.     

Calories,conflict and correlates: Redistributive food security in post-conflict Iraq

War-torn Iraq manifests itself as an ideal laboratory for food-policy experimentation due to availability of unique data surrounding intra-household calorie consumption and the presence of selected correlates including, but not restricted to, substantial disruptions to social infrastructure and fundamental public-policy intervention. Among other findings, expenditure elasticities are mostly positive and dramatically curvilinear with respect to wealth; and lump-sum redistribution of The Iraqi Public Distribution System emerges as a feasible policy intervention. Extensions are discussed.     

The impact of market liberalisation on food security in Zambia

The main elements in agricultural market liberalisation have been the dismantling of the state institutions for marketing and distribution of agricultural produce, the abolition of subsidies, the liberalisation of import and export trade, and the market determination of input and output prices. Economic policy reforms on the monetary, fiscal and other fronts also impinged on the variables influencing production, trade and consumption. This paper highlights some of the undesirable offshoots of the previous policy regime and enumerates the specific policies that have been introduced since 1992. It describes the positive and negative outcomes witnessed so far. Finally, it suggests what needs to be done to eliminate the prevailing major constraints to growth in food production and consumption.     

Consumer perceptions of best practice in food risk communication and management: Implications for risk analysis policy

As a consequence of recent food safety incidents, consumer trust in European food safety management has diminished. A risk governance framework that formally institutes stakeholder (including consumer) consultation and dialogue through a transparent and accountable process has been proposed, with due emphasis on risk communication. This paper delivers actionable policy recommendations based on consumer preferences for different approaches to food risk management. These results suggest that risk communication should be informed by knowledge of consumer risk perceptions and information needs, including individual differences in consumer preferences and requirements, and differences in these relating to socio-historical context associated with regulation. In addition, information about what is being done to identify, prevent and manage food risks needs to be communicated to consumers, together with consistent messages regarding preventative programs, enforcement systems, and scientific uncertainty and variability associated with risk assessments. Cross-cultural differences in consumer perception and information preferences suggest a national or regional strategy for food risk communication may be more effective than one applied at a pan-European level.     

Feeding the famine? American food aid and the GMO debate in Southern Africa

The inclusion of genetically modified maize in food aid shipments to Southern Africa during the 2002 food crisis rekindled debates over agricultural biotechnology. As the region edged ever closer to famine – putting the lives to some 14 million Africans at risk – corporate pundits, government officials and biotech’s critics debated the health and environmental dangers posed by the new technology.By situating the decision to send genetically modified maize to Southern Africa in the context of US–European debates over agricultural biotechnology, it becomes clear that the promotion of biotechnology has nothing to do with ending hunger in the region. Indeed, American food aid shipments to Southern Africa have little to do with the famine at all. Instead, I argue that US food aid policy following the 2002 crisis was intended to promote the adoption of biotech crops in Southern Africa, expanding the market access and control of transnational corporations and undermining local smallholder production thereby fostering greater food insecurity on the Continent.     

The impact of the Social Cash Transfer Scheme on food security in Malawi

The Malawi Social Cash Transfer Scheme (SCTS) was launched in 2006 to improve food security by directly providing cash transfers to the country’s most destitute households. Although government-implemented cash transfer schemes have gained popularity throughout Latin America, these schemes are just emerging in Africa. While where there is evidence of the beneficial impact of cash transfers on food security from Latin American countries, there is a dearth of evidence from resource poor countries in Africa.     

International trade and world food security : The role of developed countries since the World Food Conference

No mechanism is in place for the international coordination of grain stocks. World market stability is largely dependent upon the actions of major grain trading countries. These countries have avoided the exportation of their domestic supply variations onto world markets over the past decade, but have been reluctant to allow domestic consumption to respond to world shortages and surpluses. Improvement in the sensitivity of domestic storage and consumption to world conditions could increase their contribution to world food security.     

Assessing the contribution of artisanal fisheries to food security: A bio-economic modeling approach

Artisanal fisheries are an important food source in many developing regions. Quantitative bio-economic models are needed that comprehensively assess artisanal fisheries’ contribution to food security. Our model combines standard resource economics theory with the literature on food systems. It explains impacts of environmental variations and market development on output, prices and ultimately food security. The application to the Senegalese purse-seine fishery reveals that total sector rents account for 2% of per capita yearly food expenditures for the coastal inhabitants. We examine the relative importance of main drivers and the vulnerability of different regions. Market development plays a crucial role: The resource is of far greater relevance for remote regions.     

REDD policy impacts on the agri-food sector and food security

Recent research shows that the combined contributions of deforestation, forest degradation and peat land emissions account for about 15% of greenhouse gas emissions. The REDD policy which preserves forests and values standing forests, enables substantial emission reductions. Since agricultural production and area expansion is a primary driver of tropical deforestation, REDD policies might limit the expansion possibilities of agricultural land use and therefore influence competitiveness of the agricultural sector, agricultural prices, trade patterns, agricultural production and therefore food security in the world. This paper studies the impact of REDD policies on the agri-food sector and food security with a global CGE model called MAGNET using a scenario approach. It focuses on the restrictions on agricultural land expansion within the REDD policy package. Simulation results show that REDD policies start to affect the agri-food sector in some lower developed countries if more than 15% of potentially available agricultural areas are protected from deforestation. A stringent REDD policy that protects 90% of land reserves that could potentially be used for agriculture production results in a global real agricultural price increase of almost 7.6%, and a worldwide agricultural production decrease of 1.7%. Regional differences are large, with real agricultural price changes ranging from 4% in North America to about 24% in Sub-Saharan Africa and South-East Asia. Food access rapidly deteriorates for low-income population in these regions in the case of high forest protection levels. Compensatory payments are necessary from a food security point of view if the level of forest protection increases. Our results indicate that from a food security perspective REDD policy should stop short of trying to protect more than 40% of global carbon if the compensation mechanism is not effectively implemented within REDD.     

Food security implications of staple food substitution in Sahelian West Africa

Low-income households in Sahelian West Africa face multiple shocks that risk compressing their already-low food consumption levels. This paper develops a multi-market simulation model to evaluate the impact of common production and world-price shocks on food consumption of vulnerable groups in Sahelian West Africa. Empirical analysis confirms that poor households bear the brunt of ensuing consumption risks, particularly in closed markets, where trade barriers restrict imports, and the poor find themselves in a bidding war with richer consumers for limited food supplies. In the absence of trade, a drought that reduces domestic rainfed cereal production by 20% would compress already low calorie consumption of the rural poor by as much as 15%, four times as much as other household groups. Conversely, a 50% spike in world rice prices hits the urban poor hardest, compressing calorie consumption by up to 8%.Policy responses need to focus on two basic mechanisms that can help to moderate this pressure – consumer substitution among staple foods and trade. Immediately south of the Sahel, coastal West African countries enjoy higher rainfall, dual rainy seasons, more stable staple food production based on root crops (cassava and yams) as well as frequent double cropping of maize.Our simulation results suggest that regional trade in maize, yams and cassava-based prepared foods like gari and attieké could fill over one-third of the consumption shortfall resulting from a major drought in the Sahel. Increasing substitutability across starchy staples, for example through expansion of maize, cassava and sorghum-based convenience foods, would further moderate consumption pressure by expanding the array of food alternatives and hence supply responses available during periods of stress.