Tax Policies and Informal Employment: The Asian Experience

This paper develops and estimates a model linking tax policies to the size of the informal sector. Our results suggest that informal employment responds to the strength of enforcement and, to a lesser extent, to tax rates. Looking across sectors, we find service sector informal employment responds to both changes in tax rates and enforcement, while manufacturing sector informal employment responds only to enforcement. Quantitatively, changes in enforcement affect the manufacturing informal sector more than the service sector. These results are robust to various measures of informal employment and hold for other countries outside of Asia as well. Since informal employment (and hence output) is related to a country's GDP, these results suggest that policy makers should consider the effect of their policies on the size of the informal sector.
JEL classification : O 17; O 53; H 26     

思科诉华为:对中国企业技术能力成长和政府政策的思考

2003年1月,美国思科公司(CiscoSystems)正式起诉中国华为技术有限公司(HuaweiTechnologies)及华为的美国分公司,其诉状包括以下四个要点:(1)抄袭思科IOS源代码;(2)抄袭思科技术文档;(3)抄袭思科公司“命令行接口”,这是思科IOS软件的重要组成部件;(4)侵犯思科公司在路由协议方面的至少5项专利。这起诉讼引起了中国社会各界的争论。本文目的是通过分析表面问题背后的力量,呼吁各界人士理解这次诉讼的实质。我们的主要观点是:华为是一个已经具备核心技术能力的中国企业,完全不需要抄袭就能够做出品质相同或更优的网络路由产品。但这次诉…     

Sources of Long-Run Economic Growth In Nigeria: A Study In Growth Accounting*

Abstract: Growth accounting provides a convenient framework for decomposing the structure of economic growth and, hence, interpreting the underlying factors shaping long-run growth performance. The present study attempts to analyse the sources of Nigerian economic growth performance, using data from the period 1950–1991. The results conform generally with the ‘stylized’ facts of economic growth in less developed countries (LDCs), namely: that labour-force expansion and capital accumulation provide the motor of long-run growth in GDP, with improvement in ‘total factor productivity’ (TFP) playing at best a marginal role. Another important element in the Nigerian experience, however, is that deteriorating capacity utilization constitutes a key drag on capital productivity growth and, hence, economic growth. The collapse in capital investment from the early 1980s, coupled with deterioration in capacity utilization, and a virtual lack of efficiency gains in the economy constitute the major source of long-run decline in GDP growth rates. Policy-wise, these results suggest that given slow growth in TFP, strategies to sustain Nigerian economic growth must rely on rapid accumulation of factor inputs, particularly, capital expansion. Résumé: La comptabilisation de la croissance est un cadre d'analyse judicieux qui permet de décomposer la structure de la croissance économique et, partant, d'interpréter les facteurs sous-jacents qui façonnet les résultats en termes de croissance à long terme. La présente étude analyse les sources de la croissance économique au Nigéria, en se fondant sur les données relatives à la période 1950–1991. Les résultats de cette analyse corroborent, d'une manière générate, les faits “stylisés” de la croissance économique dans les pays en développement, à savoir: que l'expansion de la main-d'oeuvre et l'accumulation de capital constituent le moteur de la croissance à long terme du PIB, et que l'amélioration de la “productivité totale des facteurs” (PTF) ne joue, au mieux, qu'un rôle marginal. L'expérience nigériane dégage toutefois un autre enseignement, à savoir que la baisse d'utilisation des capacités est une entrave majeur à la croissance dc la productivité du capital et, corollairement, à la croissance économique. La chute brutale des investissements au début des années 1980, conjuguée à la baisse d'utilisation des capacités et à la quasi-absence de gains d'efficacité au sein de l‘économie, est la cause prépondérate du ralentissement à long terme de la croissance du PIB. Au chapitre des politiques, les resultats de l'analyse incitent à penser qu'en raison de la faible croissance de la PTF, les stratégies visant à soutenir la croissance de l’économie nigériane doivent tabler sur une rapid accumulation des facteurs, et en particulier sur une expansion du capital.     

The Incredible Shrinking Black Woman: Implications of Health Policies

Black American women are shrinking in height at a faster rate than other groups, a phenomenon that has consequences for the physical health and economic well-being of black females. Relative to the cohort born from 1955 to 1974, the most recent cohort (1970–1986) of black American women and girls have lost more than half an inch (approximately 0.56) in height. Adult height is a measure of net nutrition acquired during childhood and adolescence and is correlated with a wide variety of economic and health outcomes. Simultaneously, the body mass index (BMI) among blacks has also increased at a faster rate than whites in both the periods of 1988–1994 (1.06 kg/m2) and 1999–2002. Black women and girls, in particular, experienced the greatest increase in BMI since the 1990s. Evidence that black American women are shrinking and BMI is growing highlights the need to examine the nutritional intake of black girls during childhood and adolescence; early nutritional deficiencies have persistent impact over their life course. In this policy brief, we consider several public health policy interventions that affect black girls’ nutritional intake across the life course, particularly during childhood and adolescence.     

Labor Shortages on Small Landholdings in Malawi: Implications for Policy Reforms

A simple linear programming model of representative smallholder households is used to investigate the sources of relative scarcity of labor and land in Malawi. The paradox of on-farm labor shortages on small landholdings can be explained by the multiple constraints smallholders face. These multiple constraints, including lack of finance, concerns for food security, and others, lead to suboptimal allocations of household resources. In turn, the low returns to labor and land, contribute to household food insecurity and a vicious cycle of poverty. The findings of the paper provide a clear signal to policymakers and research and extension institutions that these constraints are all linked, and addressing one cannot be effective without addressing the others.     

中国政府新考验：保护境外务工人员

善良勤劳的中国人用双手缔造着自己的辉煌，也为世界的发展做出了莫大的贡献。然而，近期发生的一系列境外务工人员遇袭事件，使一向被看好的劳务输出一下变得前途莫测起来，中国政府也面临一个新的考验。     

The Long-Run Purchasing Power Parity for the Yen: Historical Overview

This paper examines the long-run behavior of the yen/dollar real exchange rate. Several series are spliced to compose long Japanese consumer and wholesale price indices, long U.S. consumer and wholesale price indices, and the yen/dollar exchange rate, from 1879 to 1995. The CPI-based real exchange rate tended to depreciate in the pre-WWII periods, but strongly appreciated in the post-WWII periods. The WPI-based real exchange rate did not show any trend in the pre-WWII periods, but appreciated moderately in the post-WWII periods. The unit root tests were not rejected for the CPI-based real exchange rate series, but some of them were rejected for the WPI-based real exchange rate series, suggesting mean reversion property only for the WPI-based series. The Balassa–Samuelson hypothesis to explain a drift and/or a trend in the real exchange rate series had only a weak support.J. Japan. Int. Econ.,December 1997,11(4), pp. 502–521. Institute of Economic Research, Hitotsubashi University, Naka 2-1, Kunitachi, Tokyo 186, Japan.     

"民工荒"现象:成因及政策涵义分析

当前的用工荒固然与宏观经济形势直接相关,但更是2004年以来劳动力短缺现象合乎规律的延续,根本原因在于劳动年龄人口增长率的下降。民工荒的出现,总体上符合经济社会发展规律变化的趋势,因此也必然给劳动力市场带来一系列新的变化。本文建议积极创造政策条件,把民工荒转化为经济社会变革的机遇,加快推进全面建设小康社会进程。     

我国灵活就业群体的社会保障政策探讨

在劳动力供给日益增加和就业压力不断加大的今天,非正规就业作为多种就业形式之一已为社会普遍接受。然而,由于我国目前社会保障制度上的缺陷,导致参与非正规就业中的灵活就业群体的各种社会权益得不到有效保护。这不仅造成灵活就业群体的应有社会权益受到侵害,更对非正规就业的长远发展带来不利影响,同时也使我国社会保障制度规范和完善过程中扩大保险覆盖面、提高统筹互济能力起到了制约作用。     

民工短缺对城市社会经济发展的影响

基于对劳动力输出和输入地区的大量调查．本文得出局部地区民工短缺的确存在，但“民工荒”这一说法不能够成立，因为我国劳动力总体供给大于需求的局面并没有发生根本改变的判断；局部地区民工短缺的实质是企业与农民工在工资上博弈的结果，民工短缺是市扬的自然调节，而不是政策性的障碍。没有迹象显示这一问题会扩展为全国性的、影响经济发展的严重问题。但民工短缺可能标志着劳动力市场力量时比开始发生变化；民工短缺将对我国经济结构调整产生积报的影响．催生区域间的产业结构转移：民工短缺还有助于地方政府真正落实科学发展现。     

Bringing Unemployed Back to Work: Effective Active Labor Market Policies

We present a theoretical analysis of different types of active labor market policies in the context of a search-matching model. We find that labor market training is effective in bringing down unemployment while public employment services and subsidized jobs are not effective at all. This theoretical finding is confirmed in an explorative empirical analysis using data from 20 OECD countries.     

最低工资制度对劳动力市场影响的实证分析

本文对最低工资理论模型进行了拓展分析,并以深圳为案例分析了最低工资制度对区域就业的影响。在跨区域劳动力流动的情况下,区域劳动力市场均衡工资趋近最低工资标准,并且不会导致区域就业量的下降。     

日本粮食生产补贴政策演进对我国的借鉴

日本是亚洲人地关系十分紧张的典型国家,保障粮食安全一直是日本政府中心工作之一,在粮食生产的弱质性、低效性与高风险羁绊下,日本政府在解决粮食安全问题工作上举步为艰,因此,给予粮农高额补贴一直是日本政府突破藩篱的长期做法,据此生成了比较完善的粮食生产补贴政策体系,形成较科学的政策演进机理,为我国目前运行的粮食生产补贴政策提供了有益的经验借鉴.     

非正规金融、制度变迁与经济增长:一个文献综述

本综述在剖析非正规金融交易微观运作机理的基础上,揭示了非正规金融对中小企业融资、经济增长的重要性以及对金融制度变迁的导向意义;在进行正规金融机制设计、改善中小企业融资与金融体制改革时,要利用非正规金融的优势和正面效应。     

布什政府的对外贸易政策评析

对外贸易政策对推动美国经济的发展始终起着重要作用。2001年布什政府上台以后,面临新的国内外贸易政策环境,为了巩固和加强美国在全球贸易谈判中的地位,对美国的贸易政策进行了一系列重大调整,推行一条“强硬的单边主义、富有同情心的保守主义,以及脆弱的多边主义”相结合的进攻性新贸易保守主义路线。     

Farm Household Responses to Government Policies: Evidence from West Java

Few micro level analyses have been undertaken in Indonesia of rural households' responses to government policies, and of household characteristics and endowments. Most studies of rural household behaviour in Indonesia have analysed the consumption, production and labour supply aspects separately, ignoring the complex interrelations among farm production, farm profit, household consumption and family labour supply. In this study, the complex nature of rural household production and consumption decisions is analysed by applying a farm household model to cross-sectional data from 241 households in six villages of West Java. The model incorporates multiple crops, different wage levels for males and females, and non-agricultural employment.