Long-Run Implications of Social Security Taxation for Growth and Fertility

This paper compares long-run implications for growth and fertility of four types of taxation for social security with positive bequests. A tax rise under lump-sum taxation enhances growth but lowers fertility, while other types of taxation do so under additional restrictions. A tax rise under consumption taxation is less likely to stimulate growth and to reduce fertility than under payroll taxation. A rise in an interest income tax raises fertility, reduces both savings and human capital investment, and hence is harmful for growth. The case with zero bequests is also discussed.     

Tax Policies and Informal Employment: The Asian Experience

This paper develops and estimates a model linking tax policies to the size of the informal sector. Our results suggest that informal employment responds to the strength of enforcement and, to a lesser extent, to tax rates. Looking across sectors, we find service sector informal employment responds to both changes in tax rates and enforcement, while manufacturing sector informal employment responds only to enforcement. Quantitatively, changes in enforcement affect the manufacturing informal sector more than the service sector. These results are robust to various measures of informal employment and hold for other countries outside of Asia as well. Since informal employment (and hence output) is related to a country's GDP, these results suggest that policy makers should consider the effect of their policies on the size of the informal sector.
JEL classification : O 17; O 53; H 26     

Population Growth and Economic Growth: Long-Run Evidence from Latin America

Unit root tests, the Johansen maximal likelihood methodology, and Granger causality tests in the context of a one-step error correction model are used to examine the long-run relation between population and per capita GDP in seven Latin American countries over most of the 20th century. The results suggest that no long-run relation has existed and, hence, population growth neither causes per capita GDP growth nor is caused by it.     

思科诉华为:对中国企业技术能力成长和政府政策的思考

2003年1月,美国思科公司(CiscoSystems)正式起诉中国华为技术有限公司(HuaweiTechnologies)及华为的美国分公司,其诉状包括以下四个要点:(1)抄袭思科IOS源代码;(2)抄袭思科技术文档;(3)抄袭思科公司“命令行接口”,这是思科IOS软件的重要组成部件;(4)侵犯思科公司在路由协议方面的至少5项专利。这起诉讼引起了中国社会各界的争论。本文目的是通过分析表面问题背后的力量,呼吁各界人士理解这次诉讼的实质。我们的主要观点是:华为是一个已经具备核心技术能力的中国企业,完全不需要抄袭就能够做出品质相同或更优的网络路由产品。但这次诉…     

The Effects of Expected and Unexpected Volatility on Long-Run Growth: Evidence from 18 Developed Economies

This article examines the relationship between output volatility and long-run growth for 18 developed countries between 1880 and 1990. The analysis builds on the existing literature by decomposing output growth volatility into expected and unexpected components and then examining whether the types of volatility have different effects on long-run growth. The results are consistent with the view that unexpected volatility reduces long-run growth and that expected volatility increases long-run growth. The results also suggest that the combined effect of expected and unexpected volatility is to reduce long-run growth for most countries and most time periods.     

Sources of Long-Run Economic Growth In Nigeria: A Study In Growth Accounting*

Abstract: Growth accounting provides a convenient framework for decomposing the structure of economic growth and, hence, interpreting the underlying factors shaping long-run growth performance. The present study attempts to analyse the sources of Nigerian economic growth performance, using data from the period 1950–1991. The results conform generally with the ‘stylized’ facts of economic growth in less developed countries (LDCs), namely: that labour-force expansion and capital accumulation provide the motor of long-run growth in GDP, with improvement in ‘total factor productivity’ (TFP) playing at best a marginal role. Another important element in the Nigerian experience, however, is that deteriorating capacity utilization constitutes a key drag on capital productivity growth and, hence, economic growth. The collapse in capital investment from the early 1980s, coupled with deterioration in capacity utilization, and a virtual lack of efficiency gains in the economy constitute the major source of long-run decline in GDP growth rates. Policy-wise, these results suggest that given slow growth in TFP, strategies to sustain Nigerian economic growth must rely on rapid accumulation of factor inputs, particularly, capital expansion. Résumé: La comptabilisation de la croissance est un cadre d'analyse judicieux qui permet de décomposer la structure de la croissance économique et, partant, d'interpréter les facteurs sous-jacents qui façonnet les résultats en termes de croissance à long terme. La présente étude analyse les sources de la croissance économique au Nigéria, en se fondant sur les données relatives à la période 1950–1991. Les résultats de cette analyse corroborent, d'une manière générate, les faits “stylisés” de la croissance économique dans les pays en développement, à savoir: que l'expansion de la main-d'oeuvre et l'accumulation de capital constituent le moteur de la croissance à long terme du PIB, et que l'amélioration de la “productivité totale des facteurs” (PTF) ne joue, au mieux, qu'un rôle marginal. L'expérience nigériane dégage toutefois un autre enseignement, à savoir que la baisse d'utilisation des capacités est une entrave majeur à la croissance dc la productivité du capital et, corollairement, à la croissance économique. La chute brutale des investissements au début des années 1980, conjuguée à la baisse d'utilisation des capacités et à la quasi-absence de gains d'efficacité au sein de l‘économie, est la cause prépondérate du ralentissement à long terme de la croissance du PIB. Au chapitre des politiques, les resultats de l'analyse incitent à penser qu'en raison de la faible croissance de la PTF, les stratégies visant à soutenir la croissance de l’économie nigériane doivent tabler sur une rapid accumulation des facteurs, et en particulier sur une expansion du capital.     

The Incredible Shrinking Black Woman: Implications of Health Policies

Black American women are shrinking in height at a faster rate than other groups, a phenomenon that has consequences for the physical health and economic well-being of black females. Relative to the cohort born from 1955 to 1974, the most recent cohort (1970–1986) of black American women and girls have lost more than half an inch (approximately 0.56) in height. Adult height is a measure of net nutrition acquired during childhood and adolescence and is correlated with a wide variety of economic and health outcomes. Simultaneously, the body mass index (BMI) among blacks has also increased at a faster rate than whites in both the periods of 1988–1994 (1.06 kg/m2) and 1999–2002. Black women and girls, in particular, experienced the greatest increase in BMI since the 1990s. Evidence that black American women are shrinking and BMI is growing highlights the need to examine the nutritional intake of black girls during childhood and adolescence; early nutritional deficiencies have persistent impact over their life course. In this policy brief, we consider several public health policy interventions that affect black girls’ nutritional intake across the life course, particularly during childhood and adolescence.     

The Growth Barriers of Informal Sector Enterprises: Evidence from India

The present study investigates the growth barriers of informal sector enterprises in India. The empirical analysis is based on the National Sample Survey Organization's unit‐level data for three years, 2000–2001, 2005–6, and 2010–11. The results of the study reveal: proprietary and large firms survive and grow; enterprises managed by women are less likely to decline; inadequate power supply poses a severe growth obstacle to all categories of firms; and proprietary firms encounter capital shortage while large firms are constrained by the non‐availability of raw materials. We do not find evidence of sub‐contracting acting as an enabling factor in firm growth.     

Labor Shortages on Small Landholdings in Malawi: Implications for Policy Reforms

A simple linear programming model of representative smallholder households is used to investigate the sources of relative scarcity of labor and land in Malawi. The paradox of on-farm labor shortages on small landholdings can be explained by the multiple constraints smallholders face. These multiple constraints, including lack of finance, concerns for food security, and others, lead to suboptimal allocations of household resources. In turn, the low returns to labor and land, contribute to household food insecurity and a vicious cycle of poverty. The findings of the paper provide a clear signal to policymakers and research and extension institutions that these constraints are all linked, and addressing one cannot be effective without addressing the others.     

中国政府新考验：保护境外务工人员

善良勤劳的中国人用双手缔造着自己的辉煌，也为世界的发展做出了莫大的贡献。然而，近期发生的一系列境外务工人员遇袭事件，使一向被看好的劳务输出一下变得前途莫测起来，中国政府也面临一个新的考验。     

The Long-Run Purchasing Power Parity for the Yen: Historical Overview

This paper examines the long-run behavior of the yen/dollar real exchange rate. Several series are spliced to compose long Japanese consumer and wholesale price indices, long U.S. consumer and wholesale price indices, and the yen/dollar exchange rate, from 1879 to 1995. The CPI-based real exchange rate tended to depreciate in the pre-WWII periods, but strongly appreciated in the post-WWII periods. The WPI-based real exchange rate did not show any trend in the pre-WWII periods, but appreciated moderately in the post-WWII periods. The unit root tests were not rejected for the CPI-based real exchange rate series, but some of them were rejected for the WPI-based real exchange rate series, suggesting mean reversion property only for the WPI-based series. The Balassa–Samuelson hypothesis to explain a drift and/or a trend in the real exchange rate series had only a weak support.J. Japan. Int. Econ.,December 1997,11(4), pp. 502–521. Institute of Economic Research, Hitotsubashi University, Naka 2-1, Kunitachi, Tokyo 186, Japan.     

"民工荒"现象:成因及政策涵义分析

当前的用工荒固然与宏观经济形势直接相关,但更是2004年以来劳动力短缺现象合乎规律的延续,根本原因在于劳动年龄人口增长率的下降。民工荒的出现,总体上符合经济社会发展规律变化的趋势,因此也必然给劳动力市场带来一系列新的变化。本文建议积极创造政策条件,把民工荒转化为经济社会变革的机遇,加快推进全面建设小康社会进程。     

资本深化对中国制造业劳动生产率的影响:市场选择与政府行为

文章基于市场选择与政府行为的视角,将资本深化分解为工资上涨引致的资本深化和政府投资引致的资本深化,利用2000-2014年中国制造业28个分行业的面板数据,实证检验了资本深化对中国制造业劳动生产率提升的影响。研究结果表明,工资上涨引致的资本深化能显著的促进中国制造业劳动生产率的提升,而政府投资引致的资本深化却对中国制造业劳动生产率的提升产生了不利的影响。进一步的研究发现,政府投资引致的资本深化与中国制造业劳动生产率之间呈现出显著的"倒U型"关系,其临界值为政府投资引致的资本深化达到0.057左右,目前越过该临界值的制造业行业有20个,且主要集中在重化工业制造业。而未越过该临界值的制造业行业有8个,主要分布于轻工业制造业。这一研究结果为中国"去库存、去产能"的供给侧结构性改革提供必要的经验支持。     

Labor Market Implications of Weak Ties

Although many workers find employment through weak ties, previous studies have shown little empirical support for a connection between weak ties and income. In this article, I explain one reason why the survey methods used in previous studies underestimate, perhaps greatly, the effect of weak ties on income. In addition, I demonstrate a more direct method of estimating the effect of weak ties on income by using information from the General Social Survey on the overlap of close friends of respondents. I find that the range of social connections provided by weak ties has a significant and economically meaningful effect on income.     

Technological Change and Returns to Education: The Implications for the S&E Labor Market

Abstract

This paper analyzes the earnings effect of skill-biased technological change (SBTC), focusing on the comparison of science and engineering (S&E) and non-S&E occupations. In the analysis, we assert that S&E occupations and non-S&E occupations differ in the nature of skill requirements and their susceptibility to technological change; and consequently the earnings effects of SBTC also demonstrate a similar impact. For the empirical analysis, the modified Mincerian earnings equations are estimated by quantile regressions as well as the ordinary least squares (OLS) and two-stage estimation method.

Fitted to Korean panel data, the earning-enhancing effect of SBTC is observed for male workers, not only for those in S&E occupations but also for those in non-S&E occupations. Such an effect is not observed for women in S&E occupations, and rather turns even negative for women in non-S&E occupations; envisaging a relatively large occurrence of work interruption of married women in Korea, we conjecture that this may reflect women workers’ skill deterioration taking place during a work interruption. The earnings effect of SBTC is most apparent for male workers in the higher quantiles of earnings distribution, implying that those who are highly educated and have high unobserved ability gain most from SBTC.     

The Impact of Banking and Fiscal Policies on State-Level Economic Growth

This paper investigates the hypothesis that economic growth is affected by banking structure and fiscal policies. We use data from the 48 contiguous states for the period 1950-1980 aggregated into six five-year time periods, primarily to test the effect of the following factors on growth of state per capita income: (i) restrictions over branch banking, (ii) restrictions over multibank holding companies, (iii) the depth of financial assets in a state, (iv) the financial-intermediary mix, (v) the size of state government, and (vi) the methods of financing state government. We find no support for the hypotheses that branch banking or multibank holding company restrictions affect growth. However, financial depth and the mix of financial intermediaries are strongly correlated with economic growth. Finally, the state fiscal policy variables had no significant effect on income growth.