Who was affected by new welfare reform strategies? Microdata estimates from Canada

A heterogeneous mix of aggressive welfare reforms took effect in different provinces and years starting in the 1990s. Welfare participation rates subsequently declined. Previous investigations of these declines focused on cuts in benefits and stricter eligibility requirements. This article focuses instead on work requirements, diversion, earning exemptions and time limits – referred to jointly as new welfare reform strategies – while controlling for benefit levels, eligibility requirements, province-specific labour market conditions and GDP growth, as well as individual-level socio-economic information. Province-year-specific variation in new reform strategies produce estimates implying that their presence is associated with a large decline in welfare participation of 1.3 percentage points (14% relative to the unconditional mean participation rate of 9.2%). Our coding scheme generates new measures of policy variation that distinguish reductions in benefit levels and tighter eligibility restrictions from new welfare reform strategies, helping identify how different subpopulations responded to different kinds of welfare reforms. Estimates from 46 subpopulations demonstrate that immigrants, native Canadians, single parents and disabled people were substantially more likely to be affected by aggressive new attempts to limit welfare participation than other Canadians receiving social assistance.     

Intergenerational Welfare Participation in New Zealand

New Zealand panel data, which provide extensive information on the benefit histories of parents and their children, are used to estimate an intergenerational correlation coefficient in social welfare dependency. Recent estimation techniques for addressing issues of measurement error are applied to this analysis. The long-term benefit histories of parents and instrumental variable techniques provide useful lower and upper-bound estimates of the true intergenerational correlation. Our results suggest that the true correlation coefficient between the welfare participation of parents and their offspring is somewhere between one-third and two-thirds, but probably much closer to the lower limit in this range. Approximately one-quarter of this effect appears to operate through the lower educational attainment of children reared in families receiving social welfare benefits.     

Social Employment of Welfare Recipients in Belgium: An Evaluation

In Belgium, welfare agencies receive a subsidy to employ welfare recipients for a period sufficiently long to entitle them to unemployment benefits. We investigate the effect of this programme on the exit rate from welfare. We propose a grouping/IV estimator of the programme effect that eliminates selection bias. The estimator is consistent, even if the selection into the programme depends on the average unobserved characteristics of welfare recipients in a region and in a welfare duration interval. Without correction for selectivity we find that the programme reduces welfare dependence, but after correction this conclusion is reversed.     

A welfare reform based on help for working parents

The Help for Working Parents Plan-developed by Dr. Heidi Hartmann and Dr. Barbara Bergmann in collaboration with the Economists' Policy Group for Women's Issues, which they co-chair – offers an innovative welfare reform program that encouragesjob holding, and sustains working parents and their children in decency. The HWP provides benefits to both single- and dual-parent households, to families who are under the poverty line and to those who waver along it. Increased child care and health care benefits, food stamps, the Earned Income Tax Credit, and housing assistance are the critical components of the HWP plan – elements which will afford low-wage workers the opportunity to attain an above-poverty standard of living. It also provides a low-cash fallback option to parents who do not work for pay or are unemployed. Bergmann and Hartmann estimate that 60 percent of welfare recipients would work if the HWP plan were implemented.     

The effects of welfare and tax reform: the material well-being of single mothers in the 1980s and 1990s

The tax and welfare programs that provide income and in-kind benefits to single mothers have changed dramatically in recent years. These changes began as far back as the mid-1980s and culminated with the 1996 welfare law that ‘ended welfare as we knew it.’ These tax and welfare changes have sharply increased the employment of single mothers and cut welfare rolls. However, little is know about the effects of these policy changes on the material well-being of single mothers and their children. Studies of those leaving welfare have found that a substantial percentage have problems paying rent, purchasing enough food, and paying utility bills. Other studies found a decline in income among the worst-off single mothers after 1994 or 1995. The goal of this paper is to examine the material well-being of single mothers and their families before and after recent welfare and tax reforms. Using data from two nationally representative household surveys we examine the consumption patterns of single mothers and their families from 1984–2000. We find that the material conditions of single mothers did not decline in recent years, either in absolute terms or relative to single childless women or married mothers. This pattern holds for the average single mother as well as for low-educated single mothers at both the 15th and 25th percentiles of the consumption distribution. In most cases, our evidence suggests that the material conditions of single mothers have improved slightly.     

Welfare rules,business cycles,and employment dynamics among lone parents in Norway

How lone parents combine work and welfare in earning a living has long inspired discussion. Yet little is known of their actual labor market attachment, either over calendar time or during individual lifetimes. In this article we address both issues, first by studying Norwegian Labor Force Surveys to illuminate the labor force participation of lone parents during the last two decades and by comparing the trends revealed with similar developments among married and cohabiting parents. Next, we analyze individual labor market transitions, using longitudinal data from administrative registers. The analyses demonstrate large differences in the labor market behaviors of single and nonsingle parents in Norway, even when controlling for differences in human capital and care responsibilities. Shifting labor demand and welfare reforms that prioritize paid work have both affected the employment of lone parents, but favorable economic conditions seem to have played a larger role than stringent social policies in increasing their employment activity.     

Always Poor or Never Poor and Nothing in Between? Duration of Child Poverty in Germany

Abstract. This paper analyses the duration of child poverty in Germany. Observing the entire income history from the individuals' birth to their coming of age at age 18, we are able to analyse dynamics in and out of poverty for the entire population of children, whether they become poor at least once or not. Using duration models, we find that household composition, most importantly single parenthood, and the labour market status as well as level of education of the household head are the main driving forces behind exit from and re‐entry into poverty and thus determine the (long‐term) experience of poverty.     

PROMISES MADE, PROMISES BROKEN: A MODEL OF IMF PROGRAM IMPLEMENTATION

This paper presents a model of the implementation of IMF programs, which is empirically tested with data from the period 1975–1999. The IMF and the borrowing country are shown to have asymmetric evaluations of a program's discounted benefits, due to differences in the measurement of the benefits, the relevant time frame and appropriate discount rate. The model also distinguishes between a government that seeks to maximize national welfare and an autocracy that seeks only to benefit the ruling group. The results of the empirical analysis demonstrate that program implementation is affected by a country's trade openness, the ideological cohesion of the government, the duration of the political regime, and the degree of political openness.     

Why do parents socialize their children to behave pro-socially? An information-based theory

We present a model of intergenerational transmission of pro-social values in which parents have information about relevant characteristics of society that is not directly available to their children. Differently from existing models of cultural transmission of values (such as Bisin and Verdier, 2001, Tabellini, 2008) we assume that parents are exclusively concerned with their children's material welfare. If parents coordinate their educational choices, a child would look at her system of values to predict the values of her contemporaries, with whom she may interact. A parent may thus choose to instill pro-social values into his child in order to signal to her that others can generally be trusted. This implies that parents may optimally decide to endow their children with values that stand in contrast with maximization of material welfare, even if their children's material welfare is all they care about.     

Mundell Revisited: a Simple Approach to the Costs and Benefits of a Single Currency Area

The paper evaluates the costs and benefits of a single currency area within a unified framework. Conventionally, it is argued that a single currency area carries a welfare loss owing to the sacrifice of exchange rate adjustment in the presence of country‐specific shocks. But in 1973 Mundell argued that a single currency area offers risk‐sharing benefits when capital markets are limited in their ability to facilitate consumption insurance. The authors construct a simple model and compare a system of independent national currencies to a single currency area. The presence of country‐specific shocks may either reduce or enhance the benefits of a single currency area, depending on the importance of exchange rate adjustment relative to risk‐sharing. In a simple quantitative analysis, we find that either regime may dominate, although the utility differences between the two regimes are very small.     

IDIOSYNCRATIC RISK,AGGREGATE RISK,AND THE WELFARE EFFECTS OF SOCIAL SECURITY

We ask whether a pay‐as‐you‐go financed social security system is welfare improving in an economy with idiosyncratic and aggregate risk. We show that the whole welfare benefit from insurance against both risks is greater than the sum of benefits from insurance against the isolated risks. One reason is the convexity of the welfare gain. The other reason is a direct risk interaction amplifying the utility losses from risk. Our quantitative evaluation shows that introducing a minimum pension leads to sizeable welfare gains, despite substantial crowding out. About 60% of these gains would be missing from summing up the isolated benefits.     

Immigration and welfare magnets

"This paper investigates if the location choices made by immigrants when they arrive in the United States are influenced by the interstate dispersion in welfare benefits. Income-maximizing behavior implies that foreign-born welfare recipients unlike their native-born counterparts, may be clustered in the states that offer the highest benefits. The empirical analysis indicates that immigrant welfare recipients are indeed more heavily clustered in high-benefit states than the immigrants who do not receive welfare, or than natives. As a result, the welfare participation rate of immigrants is much more sensitive to changes in welfare benefits than that of natives."     

WELFARE REFORM AND CHILDREN'S EARLY COGNITIVE DEVELOPMENT

In this paper, we use a dynamic structural model to measure the effects of (1) single mothers' work and welfare use decisions and (2) welfare reform initiatives on the early cognitive development of the children of the NLSY79 mothers. We use PIAT‐Math scores as a measure of attainment and show that both the mothers' work and welfare use benefit children on average. Our simulation of a policy that combines a time limit with work requirement reduces the use of welfare and increases employment significantly. These changes in turn significantly increase children's cognitive attainment. This implies that the welfare reform was not only successful in achieving its stated goals, but was also beneficial to welfare children's outcomes. In another policy simulation, we show that increasing work incentives for welfare population by exempting labor income from welfare tax can be a very successful policy with some additional benefits for children's outcomes. Finally, a counterfactual with an extended maternal leave policy significantly reduces employment and has negative, though economically insignificant, impact on cognitive outcomes. (JEL I38, J22, J18)     

Optimal welfare and in-work benefits with search unemployment and observable abilities

This paper explores the optimal interaction between the tax system and social assistance in insuring people against the risks of involuntary unemployment and low ability. To that end, we introduce search unemployment in a model of optimal non-linear income taxation. The relationship between welfare benefits and the optimal level of in-work benefits is U-shaped. This explains why in-work benefits are called for both in countries that grant low welfare benefits and countries that provide high welfare benefits. An earned-income tax credit optimally induces all agents to look for work if job search is cheap and effective, agents are not very risk averse, and the least-skilled agents are relatively productive.     

THE RE-MONETARIZATION OF WELFARE BENEFITS: Entitlements, liabilities and transaction costs in the relationship between citizens and public agencies: the US EBT system and the outlook for European citizen cards

ABSTRACT*: The revolution in transaction costs brought about by new technology can make it economically efficient to restore purchasing power to citizens in the case of in-kind benefits. Analysis of the economic and institutional evolution of the US electronic benefit transfer (EBT) experience shows that a system of welfare payments can evolve either towards monopolistic (or semi-monopolistic) solutions promoted by government or towards competitive, open-market solutions. The EBT system has addressed the diseconomies created by the high proportion of unbanked citizens among welfare recipients by creating electronic pseudoaccounts for the unbanked piggybacked on the commercial payments infrastructure. The EBT card is the first obligatory payment card to be issued by a government, albeit through the intermediary of a government-designated issuer (GDI). Moving to chip cards, the problems posed by setting up a large-scale network of terminals and the fact that 'universal' welfare cards are born as 'natural' government monopolies may lead banks, governments and central banks to consider the great economies of scale and of critical mass for migration that can be offered by combining various functions in a single, universally distributed 'citizen card'. Starting with health care, European citizen cards could gradually take over functions such as the transfer of benefits to specific groups of citizens, payment for other public services, payment of national and local taxes, and payment for utilities. This would make explicit the level of subsidization now implicit in the provision of benefits in kind. The clear indication of deductions, reimbursements and subsidies in the context of payment would mark a considerable advance in the transparency of the welfare market.     

Environmental Abatement and Intergenerational Distribution

This paper employs an overlapping-generations model to explore the impactof public abatement on private investment and the intergenerationaldistribution of welfare. Whereas public abatement benefits the oldestgenerations in terms of non-environmental welfare, future generations gainmost in terms of environment welfare. The overall benefits tend to besmallest for generations born at the time of the unanticipated policy shock.Public debt policy, however, can be employed to ensure that welfare gainsare distributed more equally across the various generations. Such a policyimplies that natural capital crowds-out man-made capital.     

The Relationship between Sole Parents and Income Support

Abstract
Aside from growth in the aged population, the rapid growth in numbers of sole parents is the most marked demographic change to have occurred, not only in Australia, but right across the western developed world. The high prevalence of sole parent welfare dependence marks this change as a major social policy issue, at the centre of which is the role played by sole parent income support programs. This article discusses this issue and makes the argument that the growth in numbers of sole parents and the rate of sole parent welfare dependence has not been significantly affected by the size and structure of government provided income support.     

Rational Poverty or Poor Rationality? The Take‐up of Social Assistance Benefits

In several countries social assistance dependence has been increasing since the 1980s. After surveying the theoretical and empirical take-up literature, this study presents estimates of recent rates of non take-up of social assistance benefits. Once methodological shortcomings of prior estimations are corrected, the results show that take-up has fallen recently and thus cannot explain the rising welfare receipt. Following theoretical predictions, the probability that a rational individual takes up social assistance increases with the expected benefit amount and duration, and falls with application cost and stigma. More than half of all households eligible for transfers under the German social assistance program did not claim their benefits.     

Housing choices,sorting, and the distribution of educational benefits under deferred acceptance

I study the welfare and distributional consequences of introducing the student‐proposing deferred acceptance in a model where schools have exogenous qualities and the benefit from attending a school is supermodular in school quality and student type. Unlike neighborhood assignment, deferred acceptance induces nonpositive assortative matching where higher type students do not necessarily choose neighborhoods with better schools. Student types are more heterogeneous within neighborhoods under deferred acceptance. Assuming an elastic housing supply, deferred acceptance benefits residents in lower quality neighborhoods with more access to higher quality schools. Moreover, more parents will “vote with their feet” for deferred acceptance, other things equal, than for neighborhood assignment.     

THE WELFARE EFFECTS OF MANDATORY REEMPLOYMENT PROGRAMS: COMBINING A STRUCTURAL MODEL AND EXPERIMENTAL DATA

This article estimates a model of job search with utility costs and benefits triggered by mandatory reemployment programs. I use data from an experiment that generates exogenous variation in the threat of program participation and an increase in the job finding rate. I calculate the impact of the experiment on worker welfare, and find that participants would be willing to give up 1.5–1.7 weeks of unemployment benefits to avoid participation. These welfare costs vary across workers and are larger for workers with weaker employment prospects. Overall, welfare costs are substantial and therefore important to take into account.