Female Labour Force Participation in Indonesia: Why Has it Stalled?

This paper examines and disentangles the factors that have led to the largely unchanged participation (about 51%) of women in Indonesia’s labour force in the past two decades. We use data from the National Socio-economic Survey (Susenas) and Village Potential Statistics (Podes) from 1996 to 2013 in order to conduct a cohort analysis that distinguishes the effects of time and age on female labour force participation. We find that the raw labour market participation figures, which show little change over time, mask changes that offset one another in the current population. Evidence suggests that social norms are changing to support female participation, but this is offset by the changing industrial structure. Our projections show that the government’s current policies are unlikely to allow Indonesia to reach its G20 goal of decreasing the gender gap in labour force participation by 25% between 2014 and 2025.     

老龄化下人均经济增长率变动的实证分析

文章从曼昆、罗默和韦尔的总量生产函数出发,在经济增长模型中加入老龄化因素,据此分析了老龄化所致人口结构变化对于人均经济增长率变动的影响,并对所建构的模型进行了检验,结果表明自1978-2004年老龄化因素下的人均经济增长变动率一直为正,但增长呈现下降趋势.同时对其变动作出了预测分析,结果表明我国在2035年以前处于人均经济增长变动率为正的人口红利期,在2036-2055年则处于人口亏损期.针对分析结论,本文提出了充分利用人口红利期的政策建议和未来研究的方向.     

为什么中国文娱消费偏低?基于人口年龄结构的解释

促进文娱消费对于拉动文化产业高质量发展、满足人民精神文化需求至关重要，但我国居民文娱消费增速偏低，对此学界还欠缺足够的经验论证。文章基于人口年龄结构视角，利用中国家庭追踪调查数据（CFPS2016）考察中国城镇居民人口年龄结构变迁对文娱消费的影响。实证结果发现：整体而言，城镇家庭少儿人口占比具有显著的文娱消费需求效应，但家庭老年人口占比增加对文娱消费需求形成挤压；进一步研究发现，文娱消费需求效应伴随少儿的成长表现更为旺盛，而老年阶段的文娱消费需求随着年岁增长愈加不敏感。进一步机制分析表明，家庭收入水平和教育程度能够正向调节家庭老龄化的文娱消费需求效应，在收入水平更高、教育背景更好的家庭，人口老龄化对文娱消费的挤出效应愈不明显；在教育背景、健康状况更优的家庭，少儿抚养数量增加带来的正向文娱消费需求会被部分挤出。旨在促进城镇居民文娱消费的政策应该顺应我国人口结构变动规律，充分尊重不同年龄消费群体的文娱消费选择及习惯，重点关注"多子化"、高收入、高学历家庭的文娱消费需求，在全面提高居民收入水平的基础上，培育发展壮大细分文娱产业和消费市场，让更多居民对文娱"能消费"、"愿消费"。     

Explaining the Swedish ‘housewife era’ of 1930–1970: joint utility maximisation or renewed patriarchy?

This study shows that the Swedish ‘housewife era’ roughly occurred in 1930–1970. During the 1950s, the ratio of women’s worked hours to men’s worked hours reached a low point. In the early 1970s, it rose to above 50%. We argue that models of joint utility maximisation, assuming equal gender power relations unrestrained by cultural and institutional settings, cannot alone explain this era. The two principal structural mechanisms behind the rise of the breadwinner household were the decline of the farm household and the increased proportion of married women. Both weakened the bargaining position of women. Three results in our study weaken the claims of the joint utility maximisation model. Firstly, marriage was much more important than motherhood in determining the probability of women’s labour force participation, although the age of the child is then not taken into account. Secondly, the labour force participation of married women was similar across different social strata outside of the farm and top income households, indicating a prevalent capitalist patriarchal structure. Thirdly, women’s leisure was valued less than men’s, demonstrating that the preferences of the husband were prioritised over those of the wife.     

‘To help keep the home going’: female labour supply in interwar London

Most prior work on historical female labour supply has been confined to looking at the female labour force participation decision. This article uses the detailed information on weekly hours of work and wages contained in the New Survey of London Life and Labour (NSLLL) (1928–32) to provide the first estimation of both the participation and the hours‐of‐work decisions for female workers prior to the Second World War. The main finding is that the labour supply curve was negatively sloped—women worked longer hours at lower wages. It is also possible to compare the determinants of the labour force participation decision and the hours of work decision among females in the NSLLL. It appears that the labour force participation decision was more strongly related to household income level than to own wages, while the hours of work decision among working women was more strongly related to the wage level than to household income. Finally, the article also examines the differential labour market behaviour of married women, female household heads, and young single women; most striking among these results is the evident added‐worker effect on married women of the onset of the Great Depression in 1930.     

The effects of taxation on married women's labour supply across four countries

The labour force participation rate of married women variesconsiderably between European countries. There may be severalexplanations for this evidence. In this study, the effect ofthe different income tax schemes on female labour force participationis investigated and compared. A common labour supply functionis estimated on cross-section household samples for each ofthe countries Britain, Denmark, Ireland, and East and West Germany.Based on the estimated labour supply functions, we calculatefor each of the countries the hypothetical part time and fulltime participation rates of married women if the householdswere taxed by either separate or split taxation principles,as in Britain and Ireland, respectively. The results suggestthat the design of the tax scheme is highly important for theeconomic incentives that married women face and their resultinglabour supply behaviour.     

Women's labour force participation in nineteenth-century England and Wales: evidence from the 1881 census enumerators’ books

This article uses a new source of data, namely the full sample of the 1881 census enumerators’ books, to study female labour force participation. It examines the interaction between labour demand and supply to gauge their relative importance in determining female labour force participation rates (LFPRs). Three main findings emerge from the current article. First, there is an unmistakable link between labour demand and female LFPRs. High levels of female labour force participation are found in areas where there were industries with ample demand for female labour. Second, supply-side factors also had clear effects on female LFPRs. However, they can only operate within the limit imposed by the demand-side conditions. Third, female migration did not fundamentally change the spatial patterns of female LFPRs. Overall, this article argues that the demand side of the female labour market was the most important factor in determining female LFPRs in nineteenth-century England and Wales.     

人口老龄化对城乡收入不平等的影响效应研究——基于中国二元经济结构演变的视角

理论分析表明,二元经济结构下人口老龄化能够通过要素禀赋结构调整和社会福利改善对城乡居民收入产生不同的收入效应和替代效应,进而影响城乡收入不平等。利用中国2000-2014年省际面板数据进行实证检验发现：中国人口老龄化显著的扩大了城乡收入不平等,但要素禀赋结构和社会福利水平对老龄化条件下的城乡收入不平等影响效应不同;随着对老年人口供养负担的加重,社会福利支出对老龄化条件下的城乡收入不平等主要表现为替代效应,城市偏向的社会福利支出使得农村因照料老人引起的劳动力供给减少扩大了城乡收入不平等;而要素禀赋结构的转变则使得老龄化主要表现为收入效应,劳动力相对资本的稀缺性导致转移劳动力工资上涨,从而缩小了城乡收入不平等;随着老龄化深化,通过社会福利改善和要素禀赋结构调整能够有效抵消老龄化对城乡收入不平等的负面影响;研究也证实了二元经济结构的优化和农业规模化经营对城乡收入不平等的缩小作用,而失业率上升和城乡投资差距却会加剧城乡收入不平等。     

Is there a trade-off between the employment and wages of unskilled African South Africans?

The possible trade-off between employment and wages has characterised most of South Africa’s labour market debates, particularly with regards to decent wages versus unemployment. In this article we explore the relationship between labour market earnings and the level of employment among African birth cohorts using labour force data from 1997 to 2011. We find that the association between an increase in the proportion of unskilled employed in a birth cohort and earnings is mediated by the sector of employment. While some sectors exhibit the expected negative association, there is a robust positive relationship between the first two quartiles of the earnings distribution within birth cohorts and the proportion of the birth cohort who are employed in unskilled occupations in the manufacturing and trade sectors. Because a range of market forces determine this relationship, further research is needed to unpack the reasons for such varied outcomes in order to better inform the debates on labour market interventions like the proposed National Minimum Wage and to appreciate the potential impact of such policy interventions on wages and employment.     

Reconsidering Women's Role in the Professionalisation of the Economy: Evidence from the Australian Census 1881–1947

Scholarly histories of the professions have generally ignored the role of women in most professional work. This article uses data from the Australian Census to analyse patterns as the professions grew to occupy a significant portion of the labour force. The article discusses the strengths and limitations of the Census, especially for women. It finds a relatively high proportion of women professionals as a percentage of the female labour force throughout the period. Much of the professional work done by women was derived from social, household-based work. This suggests a need to reconsider the role of women in the professionalisation of the wider economy.     

Social Transfer Benefits and Retirement Decisions: Evidence from South Africa

Population aging poses a new challenge to the fiscal sustainability of social security programs around the globe. As life expectancy increases, among other reasons, many governments in developed countries have begun to reform key features of their programs, such as increasing the eligibility age for access to social benefits. However, as in the case of South Africa, some opt to decrease the eligibility age for access to such pension benefits. The South African old age pension, which is one of the most expansive cash transfers in developing countries, puts a significant monthly cash transfer in the hands of its recipients. This cash transfer is conditioned on age and a means test that is very generous to most South Africans. In this paper, we seek to understand the impact of such an increase in non‐labour income on the labour force participation of older men by exploiting a phased‐in reduction in pension eligibility age. We estimate that, at the median predicted market wage, pension age‐eligibility reduces the probability of labour force participation by approximately 9.85% points for single males and 15.45% points for married males.     

劳动力结构变化影响制造业结构升级的实证研究

运用1996-2015 年省级面板数据,构建FGLS 模型,本文实证检验了劳动力结构变化对制造业结构升级的影响效应。结果表明：在劳动力年龄结构中,新生代劳动力占比上升能促进制造业结构升级,即对劳动、资本密集型制造业影响效应为负,而对技术密集型制造业影响效应为正且作用强度较大;在劳动力素质结构中,知识型劳动力占比上升对制造业结构升级具有一定推动作用,即对劳动密集型制造业影响效应为负,而对资本和技术密集型制造业影响效应为正,但作用系数较小;在劳动力性别结构中,男性劳动力占比上升阻碍了制造业结构升级,即对劳动密集型制造业影响效应为正,而对资本和技术密集型制造业影响效应都为负。最后根据实证结论, 就如何顺应劳动力年龄、素质与性别结构变化顺势推进制造业结构升级,提出了相应的政策建议。     

Determinants of Labour Force Participation by Married Women: The Case of Jakarta

This study seeks to identify the determinants of female labour force participation (FLFP), by assessing the influence of a set of socio-demographic, economic and cultural factors on educational class differentials in the LFP of married women in Jakarta A J-shaped pattern of association between education and FLFP is prevalent in many developing countries: less educated women often show LFP rates close to those of well educated women, whereas moderately educated women have lower rates. The study concludes that education is a strong determinant of women's participation in the Jakarta labour force. The J-shaped pattern of association between education and FLFP persisted after standdrdisatton by age, although it was less marked than the literature suggests Few variables were consistently significant for all educational classes, with a different mix of variables influencing FLFP in each group Children below five living at home, however, had a significant negative association with FLFP in all educational classes.     

Demographic changes and local public expenditure in a macroeconomic perspective. Some Norwegian examples

The impact of demographic aging and changes in the age structure on local government expenditures for social services in Norway is analyzed and projected. "To model the production of the local government sector, we have developed a macro model which reflects the coverage of different services according to demographic characteristics and standards defined as man-hours per client.... The results of a simulation show that demographic changes are of minor importance for local government expenditures in most sectors when compared to changes in standard and coverage rates....Results [also] indicate that a shift in standards and coverages in different client sectors would have rather important effects on the Norwegian economy."     

新疆劳动力产业分布结构研究

改革开放以来,新疆劳动力产业分布结构不断变化。利用Moore变动系数来测定了劳动力的产业分布结构,利用历史数据分析劳动力产业分布变动趋势,确定新疆产业结构是＂三、一、二＂格局。新疆的劳动力变动结构并没有加速产业变动结构,新疆产业结构的非正常发展导致了新疆产业劳动力分布结构不合理状态,对新疆经济社会长远发展产生显著影响。     

Poverty,gender and migrancy: Lesotho's migrant farmworkers in South Africa

During the 1990s, eastern Free State vegetable farmers increasingly relied on migrants from neighbouring Lesotho for seasonal labour. This coincided with a major downsizing of the mine labour force in South Africa, hitherto the major employer of Basotho migrant workers. However, there was no simple process of transfer of unemployed migrants from the mining to the farming sector; rather, decisions were mediated by domestic relationships and household poverty in Lesotho. Basotho women and girls have been a major casualty of mine retrenchments and the drying up of remittances, and those with domestic skills but little formal training have been forced into the labour market, mainly domestic work in towns and labour on farms. This article examines the Basotho migrants' experiences and conditions of employment, the regulatory environment within which they are recruited and employed, and their future in the context of changing immigration and migration legislation in South Africa.     

The effect of universal pre-kindergarten policy on female labor force participation—A synthetic control approach

This paper examines the effect of universal pre-kindergarten (pre-k) on the labor force participation of mothers with pre-k-aged children in Oklahoma and Georgia. I apply the synthetic control method (SCM) to Current Population Survey (CPS) data to identify the causal relationship between universal pre-k and female labor market outcomes. I find that the universal pre-k policy has a positive impact on the intensive margin of the labor supply of mothers with pre-k-aged children in Georgia, which provides full-day child care services for all pre-k programs. However, Oklahoma's universal pre-k policy has little effect on the labor outcomes of mothers with 4-year-old children. The empirical results also suggest that universal pre-k has heterogeneous impacts on subsamples stratified by education level, marital status, poverty status, and the age structure of children in the household.     

China’s expansion of higher education: The labour market consequences of a supply shock

In the decade 1998–2008 China expanded enrolment in higher education almost six-fold. For the examination of its short term labour market consequences, this unprecedentedly huge and sudden policy change might be regarded as a natural experiment. After providing a theoretical framework for analysis, the paper uses urban labour market surveys to analyse how the labour market adjusted to the supply shock. Three outcomes are examined: the effect of the expansion on wages, on unemployment, and on access to ‘good jobs’. The shock is found to reduce relative wages, raise the unemployment rate, and reduce the proportion in good jobs, but only for the entry-year or entry-period cohort of graduates. The effect is fairly powerful for entrants, especially university rather than college graduates, but incumbent graduates are largely protected from the supply shock. An attempt is made to examine the labour market effects of the quantitative expansion on educational quality. The paper provides insight into the operation of China's labour market in recent years.     

International migrant remittances and labour force participation in Nigeria

This study examines the effect of remittances inflow to Nigeria on labour force participation in the country using the propensity score matching and Heckman two‐step benchmark model. With data sourced from Nigeria's 2015/16 General Household Survey, results reveal that receipt of remittances increased both labour force participation for non‐farm economic activities and labour force participation in urban areas, perhaps as a result of investing received remittances in new business ventures. In addition, remittance inflows raised economic activeness of the younger members of the labour force who constituted a greater percentage. The study recommends the proper functioning of institutions aimed at facilitating remittance inflows as well as enhancing the utilization of such remittances in industry‐based business start‐ups.     

‘Fit to play’: Labour market behaviour in a cohort of public-sector antiretroviral treatment patients

Given the rapid scale-up of antiretroviral treatment (ART), it is necessary to explore the impact of ART on labour force participation, employment and labour productivity. This article investigates labour market outcomes in a prospective cohort of public-sector ART clients in the Free State province of South Africa. Empirical results suggest that labour force participation increased markedly as the proportion of those too ill to work declined, becoming indistinguishable from participation rates in the general population. Unemployment rates, however, remain above those reported for the general population. ART and its health-related benefits therefore translate into increases in labour force participation, but not employment. Employment status at HIV diagnosis strongly predicts absorption in the labour force. Public-sector ART clients should be referred to vocational rehabilitation and occupational therapy programmes, and to welfare-to-work programmes, and the unskilled to adult education and training and further education and training programmes.