Dynamic disequilibrium: demographic policies and trends in Asia

The authors present an overview of anticipated population trends and policies in the developing countries of Eastern and Southeastern Asia. Attention is given to various population projections to the years 2000 and 2025, the sources of these projections, and the assumptions on which they are based. The population policies of 14 countries in the region are then discussed. It is noted that those countries with no commitment to support family planning are not likely to reach fertility levels in line with those on which U.N. population projections are based. Changes in population policies in China, Singapore, Malaysia, and the Philippines are summarized.     

Fertility projection based on birth order data--a Swedish approach

"The decreasing fertility rates in Sweden during the 1970s can be explained as postponement of childbearing. An increasingly larger part of each generation has chosen to bear children at a late age, after education and some years of occupational work. As a consequence, the yearly age-specific rates will, in years to come, change systematically towards relatively high rates for women in the second half of the fertile period; changes which are important in population projections. To predict the future rates a model based on birth order data and assumptions about the final family size is used. The model and its application in the 1989 projection of the Swedish population is discussed in the paper. Alternative projections and the assumptions behind the alternatives are specified."     

Projecting the U.S. gender wage gap 2000–40

This paper projects the gender wage gap for 25–64 year old Americans for the period 2000–40. The analysis uses data from the Panel Survey of Income Dynamics (PSID) for 1995 and 1996 together with the U.S. Census Bureau demographic projections. The method combines the population projections with assumptions regarding the evolution of educational attainment in order to first project the future distribution of skills and, based on these projections, the future size of the gender wage gap. The main set of projections suggests that changing skill characteristics—specifically educational attainment—will continue to close the gender wage gap. However, even in 2040, a substantial pay gap of at least 75 percent of the size of that in 1995 will remain.     

LONG-TERM PROJECTIONS FOR CEYLON, 1964–1973

Part I deals with projections over ten years of exports and imports based on certain assumptions regarding growth in gross domestic product, population, terms of trade movement, etc. Part II considers the possibilities of import substitution in the agricultural sector with a view to bridging the trade gap. Part III analyses the implication of the assumptions made in Parts I and II on the domestic sector of the economy and the sectoral rates have been estimated. The final section deals with the investments required in the different sectors to achieve the growth rates derived in Part III.     

The Lost Race between Schooling and Technology

We study the evolution of wage inequality between skilled and unskilled workers in the Netherlands for the years 1969-2020. Our analysis is based on estimates of the production structure in the Netherlands, projections of the relative supply of skilled workers, and projections regarding shifts in relative demand for skilled workers. Wage inequality will increase under plausible assumptions because relative demand for skilled workers will increase more rapidly than the relative supply of skilled workers. We study the potential of education subsidies to higher education in order to stimulate the supply of skilled workers thereby off-setting the increase in projected wage inequality. Our findings suggest that education subsidies are not very effective in combatting increases in wage inequality.     

Estimates of Indonesian population numbers: first impressions from the 2010 census

This note provides a critical perspective on the preliminary results of the 2010 population census, which were announced by President Yudhoyono on 16 August 2010. It explores the concepts of population used and the adjustments made to increase the accuracy of census estimates. The assumptions underlying various official population projections in the last decade produced estimates for mid-2010 that were substantially below the figure of over 237 million persons counted in May. The note argues that, far from reflecting a ‘population explosion’, this is due to the achievement in the 2010 census of greatly increased coverage of people residing in Indonesia on the census date.     

Implications for Indonesia of Asia’s Rise in the Global Economy

This article projects Indonesia's production and trade patterns to 2020 and 2030 in the course of global economic development under various growth and policy scenarios. We support our projections of the global economy by employing the Global Trade Analysis Project (GTAP) model and version 8.1 of the GTAP database, along with supplementary data from a range of sources. Our baseline projection assumes that trade-related policies do not change in each region, but that endowments and real GDP do change, at exogenously selected rates. We use this baseline and its assumptions to analyse how potential global changes may affect the Indonesian economy over this and the next decade. We then consider the potential impacts of three policy reforms by 2020: an increase in global rice exports, associated with the opening of Myanmar; the recently imposed export taxes in Indonesia on unprocessed primary products; and the implementation of Indonesia's new food law.     

Trends in energy expenditures by black households

Summary This paper presents an analysis of the projected trends in direct energy expenditures among black and white households classified by location, age, and sex of the household head, and income. Estimates of changes in the distribution of energy expenditures among groups of Black and white households are compared for 1974 and 1985. On the average, black households have lower income, larger families, drive older cars, and live in older and less energy-efficient homes. The analysis pursued here is intended to show how these determinants of energy consumption are reflected in black/white comparisons of energy expenditures. The 1985 projections are based on the mid-term 1985 energy Projection Series A through F prepared by the Energy Information Administration (EIA) for its 1977 Annual Report to Congress. The EIA energy Projection Series were based on differing assumptions with regard to: (1) growth rates of economic activity; (2) the probable levels of recoverable U.S. oil and gas resources; and (3) oil import prices. Then present energy policy was assumed to continue. This analysis utilizes a microsimulation approach to project household energy expenditures and other household energyrelated variables.     

Oil demand in the US and Japan: why the demand reductions caused by the price increases of the 1970's won't be reversed by the price declines of the 1980's

This paper analyzes the imperfect price-reversibility (‘hysteresis’) of oil demand in the US and Japan. We test econometrically oil demand data, disaggregated into transportation oil and non-transportation oil uses.The oil demand reductions following the oil price increases of the 1970's will not be completely reversed by the price cuts of the 1980's. The responce to price cuts in the 1980's is perhaps only one-fifth that for price increases in the 1970's. This has dramatic implications for projections of oil demand, especially under low-price assumptions.We also consider the demand effects of a price recovery in the 1990's, especially whether the effects would be as large as for the price increases of the 1970's or only as large as the smaller demand reversals of the 1980's. On this the results are inconclusive.     

A clay-clay vintage model approach for sectors of industry in Netherlands

Summary To confirm on a more disaggregated level earlier macro-economic studies in the field, an attempt is made in this paper to find out whether a vintage model of the clay-clay type also provides a framework for a plausible explanation of long-run sectoral developments of production capacity, labour requirements and employment. Nine sectors are considered, comprising the total enterprises sector. For this total enterprises sector an (amended) clay-clay vintage model is also (re-)estimated. The results indicate that in the process of adjustments, real labour costs are the strategic variable, though capacity utilization is also recognized as a factor affecting employment directly and indirectly. Projections of employment with the macro vintage model are satisfactory. Specifically, they are more satisfactory than the extrapolations for either manufacturing or non-manufacturing taken separately, and the macro projections compete fairly well with those based on an overall aggregation of employment projections over all nine sectors considered.     

Physical capital accumulation in Asia 12: Past trends and future projections

The pace of capital accumulation in East Asia has simply been stunning. In this paper, we investigate sources of this fast accumulation and make projections for the future. We estimate a “convergence” equation for physical capital per capita, which is derived from an open economy growth model, using a pooled cross-country, across-decade sample of the entire world. We also conduct projections for the next two decades. We find that an economy with a low level of capital stock per capita tends to experience faster accumulation subsequently. Asian economies have certainly benefited from this “convergence effect”. But on the other hand, other factors such as a low rule of law score and high investment goods prices have worked against them. Our projection shows that, if those economies wish to maintain their current pace of fast capital accumulation, the keys would be to reduce distortions in the domestic market and to improve the quality of institutions.     

Structural Changes in a Reforming World Economy: Implications for Indonesia

How will rapid East Asian industrialisation and international trade policy reforms affect Indonesia's economy? Taking an economy-wide perspective and drawing on projections to 2005, based on a global applied general equilibrium model (GTAP), we show the impact of Uruguay Round implementation, and explore other international influences on Indonesia's and neighbouring economies. Trade reforms likely to accompany China's (and Taiwan's) membership of the WTO are projected to boost the competitiveness of Indonesia's primary sectors at the expense of light manufacturing and the overall economy, while failure by OECD countries to honour Uruguay Round obligations to open their textile and clothing markets would reduce industrialisation in the region, slowing growth in its net food imports. The benefits to Indonesia of APEC liberalisations are also reported. All projections were completed in 1997 before the enormity of the financial crisis became clear; follow-on research should quantify the growth slowdown's impact on these results.     

Economic growth in Asia: Determinants and prospects

Using a growth accounting framework, we find that developing Asia grew rapidly over the past three decades mainly due to robust growth in capital accumulation. The contributions of education and total factor productivity in the region's past economic growth remain relatively limited. We also make long-run growth projections for developing Asia by combining the growth accounting framework with growth regression approach. Our baseline projections based on the model of conditional convergence show that the gross domestic product (GDP) growth rates of the 12 developing Asian economies covered by this paper will be consistently lower for the next two decades than their historical performance. However, policy reforms in education, property rights, and research and development can substantially raise GDP growth in the region and partly offset the slowdown in growth caused by the convergence phenomenon. Even under the baseline scenario, the region's share in the world economy will increase from the current 34 percent in 2009 to close to a half in 2030.     

Projecting meat and cereals demand for China based on a meta-analysis of income elasticities

There are many projections for China's food demand, and the projection results differ significantly from each other. Different values for income elasticities could be a major reason. This study projects meat and cereals demand for China based on a meta-analysis of the income elasticity estimates using a collection of 143 and 240 income elasticity estimates for cereals and meat products, respectively, from 36 primary studies. We find that income elasticities for most cereals (general cereals, rice, and coarse grains) and all meat products (general meat, pork, poultry, beef & mutton) tend to decline as per capita income increases, except for wheat, which increases. Taking this into account, differences between consumption projections based on time-varying income elasticities and values based on constant elasticities are substantial in quantities and increase over time.     

Cost prospects for hydrogen centralized production

This paper looks at the most promising technologies of hydrogen production and transportation. Specially developed economical-technological models were used to develop projections of the expected cost of hydrogen in centralized systems of production and transportation. The projections reflect the wide variation of initial parameters and the uncertainty of technological and market conditions. The authorsÙ analysis identified the most promising technologies of centralized production of hydrogen, which can secure its entrance to the Russian domestic market within the next 15–20 years.     

Improving Auditors' Consideration of Evidence Contradicting Management's Estimate Assumptions

Auditors have difficulty evaluating the assumptions underlying management's estimates. One source of these problems is that auditors appear to dismiss evidence contradicting management's assumptions because their initial preference to support management's accounting biases their preliminary conclusions and, thus, their interpretation of evidence. We experimentally examine whether auditors with a balanced focus (i.e., a focus on documenting evidence that supports and contradicts their preliminary conclusion) are less likely to dismiss evidence that contradicts management's assumptions than auditors with a supporting focus (i.e., a focus on documenting evidence that supports their preliminary conclusion). We expect and find that, compared with auditors with a supporting focus, auditors with a balanced focus create documentation that is less dismissive of evidence contradicting management's estimate. Importantly, a balanced focus changes auditors' cognition and affects how auditors interpret contradicting evidence rather than merely increasing their documentation of this evidence. The effects of reduced dismissiveness persist to improve auditors' evaluations of a biased estimate and subsequent actions, improving audit quality in an important and difficult area.     

Directing the Directors: Assumptions about the Effectiveness of Corporate Law

Directors are important economic actors. In recent years there has been considerable debate between Australian judges, legislators, and law reformers about the formulation of appropriate liability rules for company directors. This debate relies on a number of assumptions about the effect which law can and ought to have on directors' behaviour. This paper reviews the law, examines these assumptions, and concludes that we have little clear empirical information about the effect of the law in this area.     

Global migration in the twentieth and twenty-first centuries: the unstoppable force of demography

Review of World Economics - This paper sheds light on the global migration patterns of the past 40 years, and produces migration projections for the 21st century. To do this, we build a simple...     

角色管理对服务质量影响的实证研究

文章从员工角色理论出发,提出从角色冲突,角色模糊,角色负荷三个维度来衡量角色管理对员工服务质量的影响作用,并提出相关假设及验证假设的理论模型。最后采用规范的研究方法与结构方程模型对样本数据和运行结果进行了分析和评价,最终得出至少在电力服务企业,缓解角色冲突、角色模糊、角色负荷的角色管理对其所提供的服务质量有不同程度正向的推动的作用,其中缓解角色模糊问题对服务质量影响最大。从而为服务企业的服务质量的改进和企业形象提升提供理论依据与实践模型。     

Elasticity pessimism,expectations, and stability of the foreign exchange market

Conclusions This note has shown that, when trade volumes do not respond sufficiently to deviations from equilibrium of the exchange rate, and when speculative demand for foreign currency is assumed to be a stock demand, the dynamic stability of the foreign exchange market depends crucially on expectational assumptions. Of the expectational assumptions investigated here, only perfect myopic foresight is capable of providing dynamic stability, and then only when the sensitivity of speculators to capital gains is larger than a threshold value determined by other parameter values in the system.