Financial Development in Asia: some analytical issues

Twenty-two years ago, Ronald McKinnon and Edward Shaw highlighted some of the deleterious effects of financial repression-interest rate ceilings, high reserve requirements, directed credit policies, and discriminatory taxation of financial intermediaries. Both books presented some theoretical underpinnings for policy recommendations, based in large part on reforms in Taiwan (early 1950s) and Korea (mid-l960s), that were already in vogue. Since 1973 there has been a literature explosion in the field of financial development, much of it focused on the Asian experience. This article constitutes the third in a series of articles which surveys the literature on financial development in Asia for the period 1988–94.     

Forecasting the structure of population expenditures on goods and services

This article highlights the results of studies on modeling and forecasting the structure of population expenditures on goods and services. The demand function properties are analyzed, the information support problems of model calculations are considered, and the estimation results of the parameters of demand regression equations on the basis of goods and services are presented.     

Incorporating population issues in agricultural extension

The rate of population growth in Malawi is very high and has become a cause of concern for development planners. The Child Spacing Programme is supposed to promote family planning with the ultimate goal of slowing down population growth. This article argues that the success of any family planning programme in Malawi hinges on the active involvement of males, who are the key decision‐makers in families as well as the larger community. One way of getting males to appreciate the necessity for small families is to demonstrate the real and potential danger that a large family poses to its livelihood, which depends on the availability of adequate fertile land and regular rainfall. This calls for the inclusion of population education in agricultural extension.     

Social and economic issues facing seniors: Humanitarian dimensions of aging and social support in old age

The article considers different ways to provide social services to seniors and addresses government social spending on old age.     

Age structure of the population in Belgium and social security

The effects of demographic aging and of various socioeconomic factors on the social security system in Belgium are explored. "Special attention is given to the impact of the ageing of the population on the pension problem. Based on a simple formula a series of percentages of taxation have been calculated as a function of shifts in the proportion of retired vs. active population and in the proportion of the average income vs. the average amount of pension. One of the conclusions is that the progressive ageing of the population will become the most significant factor in the growth of social expenditures."     

Optimal population growth and the social welfare function

The social welfare function criterion offers an approach to the theory of optimal economic growth that is intermediate between the 2 most frequently used utilitarian models--those that maximize per capita utility and those that maximize total utility. According to the welfare criterion, societal welfare depends not only on the level of per capita consumption, but also on the population density in the area in which an individual resides. The model postualtes that, for a given level of per capita consumption, total utility increases with increasing density, reaches a maximum, and then declines with further population increases due to the deleterious effect of overcrowding on the quality of life (e.g., the quality of education, recreational facilities, and environmental factors such as clean air and pure water). The overall objective of the model is to identify the optimal per capita consumption and population size that maximize the discounted social welfare. Optimal population growth occurs when the increase in the discounted social welfare resulting from the introduction of a new member equals the reduction in welfare created by that addition (modified Meade Rule), while per capita accumulation equals the sum of the population growth rate and the social rate of time preference (modified Golden Rule). This model could be extended to consider technological change more explicitly and its effect on optimal outcomes.     

Aging of the population in Japan and its implications to the other Asian countries

"The speed at which Japan's population is aging is mainly a result of its rapid economic development, which is common to many other East Asian countries. Two aspects of the aging of the population are an increasing share of the elderly and a declining labor force. The larger the number of elderly, the more the transfer of income between generations, and the fiscal burden rises. The shrinking workforce will lower the economic growth directly, and indirectly through the falling saving ratio. However, the negative impacts from aging can largely be offset by stimulating participation of older persons in the labor force."     

Project evaluation and social‐cost benefit analysis in LDCs: Awkward issues for a useful approach∗

This paper outlines some limitations of social cost‐benefit analysis (CBA) and reviews the advocacy of its use in LDCs. It argues that account should be taken in social CBA of the optimality of imperfect decision‐making and the costs of information gathering and processing. This supports the view that simple may be optimal. It is pointed out that because of informational requirements and institutional factors, the technique may lead to bias against small projects, small countries and to urban bias. Furthermore, in the past the technique has overstressed the (economic) evaluation phase of the project cycle in comparison for instance, to the identification phase. The importance of taking account of environmental spillovers and externalities in LDCs in project evaluation has not been recognized in the past by a number of economic analysts but this is changing. Many criticisms of social CBA appear to be based upon unreasonable expectations about the perfectability of decision‐making. The technique has social value if it ensures that socially unsatisfactory projects are not selected and that those selected are satisfactory, if not optimal.     

The effects of social security on population and output growth

"In this paper we have considered two unfunded social security programs. Under the conventional system, benefits are related to aggregate fertility; under the hypothetical fertility-related system, benefits are directly linked to individual fertility. The effects on fertility and per capita growth rates of the two social security systems are examined in the context of endogenous growth." The relative merits of the two systems for developing and developed countries are considered. The authors conclude that "the conventional social security system existing in many developed nations may be desirable to...developing countries in reducing population and promoting economic growth. On the other hand, the hypothetical fertility-related system may be useful to developed countries as far as increasing fertility is concerned."     

Inflation,interest rate policy,and currency substitutions in developing economies: A discussion of some major issues

This paper deals with the management of interest rates in an open economy under rapid inflation and reviews the links between interest and exchange rate policies.To prevent current substitution the rate of interest paid to lenders must equal the equivalent rate after adjusting for differential taxation and intermediation costs. This would probably induce capital inflows and consequent monetary growth. Exchange risks are also considered in this context.The paper concludes that under inflationary conditions it is difficult to use only interest rates to achieve both proper resource allocation and prevention of currency substitution. Some policy measures to cope with this problem are discussed.     

Developments in social accounting methods as applied to the analysis of income distribution and employment issues

Research into the design, construction and use of social accounting matrices (SAMs) for the analysis of income distribution issues in development policy and planning is generally discussed. Specific case studies for Swaziland, Botswana and Kenya are considered and the accounting classifications are compared, especially those for households. The use of the Swaziland and Botswana SAMs to analyse some of the distributional effects of certain exogenous impacts (such as the outbreak of a foot and mouth epidemic in Botswana) is also discussed. This includes a presentation of methodology as well as some results of the analyses.     

人口老龄化:影响、特点与对策

面对日趋紧迫的人口老龄化形势,我们必须全面落实科学发展观,坚持走可持续发展的道路,更加重视人口老龄化问题,积极探索具有中国特色的人口老龄化应对之策。要尽快完善城镇养老保障体系,健全农村养老保障制度,解决好农民工的养老问题,充分发挥家庭养老的主导作用,加大老年人健康教育和疾病预防力度,发挥中医药在养老和医疗服务中的作用,积极发展为老服务产业,有区别、分步骤地提高退休年龄,尽快研究有利于减缓老龄化问题的生育调整政策。     

Sphere of paid services to the population in the context of social and economic development

This paper examines the technical and economic situation in the sphere of services, long-term and recent tendencies, and the proportion of development among services in connection with the income of the population. Factors of the inequality in the consumption of paid services and the results of cross-country comparisons, as well as reasons for the slow growth of this sector, are investigated