Population policy: do we need it? Prospects and problems

A 1983 report by the Whitsun Foundation called upon the Government of Zimbabwe to recognize the urgent nature of that country's population problem and to devise and implement a comprehensive population policy aimed at reducing morbidity and mortality among women and children, reducing the population growth rate, and reducing the fertility level. This article challenges the Whitsun Foundation's view that population pressure is the primary cause of poverty in Zimbabwe and that family planning is a feasible remedy. It is argued instead that poverty in Zimbabwe can be traced to capitalist development policies that have removed from rural people the means to produce their own subsistence. More important that large-scale birth control programs are radical structural and institutional changes aimed at achieving social and economic progress and directly attacking poverty, unemployment, and inequality. Those countries where marked declines in birth rates have been achieved have usually been those that spread the benefits of development throughout their populations. Moreover, the Whitsun report implies that there is no family planning program in Zimbabwe. In fact, in 1982, an estimated 200,000 people received contraception through the Child Spacing and Fertility Association of Zimbabwe's program. It is unlikely that an expanded birth control program and educational campaign to persuade the rural and urban poor to practice family planning will be effective. Policy makers will have to address the cynicism brought about by the colonial regimes' genocidal efforts in the 1960s and 1970s to introduce birth control measures.     

Population growth and economic and social development

This article sets forth 3 positions on population growth: 1) rapid population growth is a central development problem that implies lower living standards for the poor; 2) proposals for reducing population growth raise difficult questions about the proper domain of public policy, yet it is acceptable for governments to attempt to influence private decisions about family size; and 3) the experience in many developing countries shows that quick, effective measures can be taken to reduce fertility. Rapid population growth has slowed development because it exacerbates the difficult choice between higher consumption in the present and the investment needed to bring higher consumption in the future. As populations grow, larger investments are needed just to maintain current capital/person. It further threatens the balance between natural resources and people and creates severe economic and social problems in urban areas. Public policy must provide alternative ways for poor families to secure the benefits provided by large family size. That is, governments need to provide tangible evidence that it really is in the best interests of parents to have fewer children. Also required is greater infomation about and access to fertility control. When family planning services have been widespread and affordable, fertility has decline faster than social and economic progress alone would predict. There is a need for immediate action to improve women's status and to make education, family planning, and primary health care more available. Although economic and social progress help to slow population growth, rapid population growth hinders development. Thus, governments must act simultaneously on both fronts. Accumulating evidence on population growth in developing countries shows that is the combination of social development and family planning that reduces fertility.     

"The government must not dictate": rural-urban migrants' perceptions of Zimbabwe's land resettlement programme

"In the 1990s analyses of [Zimbabwe's land resettlement program] by both supporters and critics of land reform have generally been negative. Yet there is evidence that resettled people themselves have made real welfare and income gains. Strong support for the programme was also expressed by a large sample of rural-urban migrants in Harare in 1994. Their views, reported in this article, showed an appreciation of most aspects of the academic and policy debates, but clearly also tended towards the perception that redistribution of land in Zimbabwe is a moral issue."     

关于深入研究社会主义劳动和劳动价值论的几个问题

本文提出深入研究社会主义劳动和劳动价值论的基础性工程是对劳动的含义进行拓展。在此基础上 ,本文认为 ,从总体上来说 ,第三产业的劳动应视为创造价值的生产性劳动 ;科技劳动往往含有知识财产因素 ,科技劳动在经济发展中具有独特的创新力 ;管理劳动是高级的智力劳动 ,它体现了人类劳动独具的组织力。因此现阶段我国的分配制度必须正确对待生产要素参与价值分配的现实性和合理性以及资本在经济增长中的贡献。     

Women with large families: a sociodemographic analysis

Results of a 1976 sample survey of 1616 mothers of 4 or more children in Tashkent are presented. The high natural increase of the Central Asian populations will largely determine the dynamics of Soviet population growth for the foreseeable future. For indigenous Central Asian families, having many children is an expression of the traditions of the ethnic community, which are highly conservative and change only under the direct impact of socioeconomic conditions. More than 1/2 the surveyed mothers were under 40. No substantial differences were noted in the average number of children among mothers of large families with different educational levels. 19.2% of mothers of large families have specialized secondary education or above. The average number of children of mothers of large families with a higher education is close to that of groups with no specialized education and of the whole surveyed group. The survey revealed that the average number of children/mother was 5.6 in Tashkent compared to 7.3 in rural areas. 92.5% of the mothers were married and most were still in 1st marriages. 40% had married before age 20 and 81.1% before age 25. The average age at marriage of women declined by 11 years between 1915 and 1954, reflecting socioeconomic changes and a steady rise in material well-being. 53% of the mothers are employed in social production, with employment rate steadily increasing with woman's age. More than 1/3 of nonworking women in the survey reported they wanted to find a job. Only 30.9% of the women had never worked. The employment of most of the surveyed women in low-skilled or unskilled jobs suggests that the quality of the labor force is not high, but the positive aspects fostered by large families such as industriousness and collectivism should also be considered in assessing population quality.     

失地农民中的女性再就业研究——一个城郊村落的个案呈现

随着中部地区承接产业转移、城镇化加速和区域经济发展,失地农民的人数快速增长。失地农民离开了土地,失去了传统的劳动方式和生活保障。他们中的适龄劳动人口不得不转向非农再就业,其中的女性也是如此。受到社会性别差异的限制,失地农民中的女性不仅要面对再就业问题,还要平衡其与自身角色和家庭责任的关系。在该群体还缺乏有效劳动就业保护机制的情况下,政府、企业和社会组织共同构建社会性别主流化的劳动就业服务具有重要现实意义。     

The dynamics and structure of the population of the USSR over the last sixty years

Changes in population trends and structure in the USSR during the past 60 years are reviewed, with a focus on the effects of the Socialist system on population growth and socioeconomic development. The impact of industrialization, urbanization, female labor force participation, educational improvements, and the need to encourage population growth in order to meet future labor force requirements is emphasized, and suggestions for demographic policy directions are offered.     

Growth Miracle or Endangered Development? Vested Interests,Policy-Making,and Economic Development in the Dominican Republic

The Dominican Republic is often considered among the most successful developing countries, based primarily on its high and relatively sustained growth rates over the last two decades. On the other hand, indicators of human and social development, healthcare, and education have been particularly poor. I argue that the polarization of economic power plays an important role for this development. Furthermore, I analyze the structure of the Dominican economy in order to show that the country has relied on tourism, services, and special economic zones to obtain relatively high growth rates. These activities do not require high-skilled labor and will not allow the economy to generate high incomes for the population, but benefit a few families who control most conglomerates. In turn, this explains low investment in education and social spending, as well as low taxation rates.     

Theoretical problems of demographic policy in the USSR

The recent emphasis in the USSR on long-range economic and social planning, as well as the country's current demographic situation, necessitates the adoption of demographic policies to create the type of population reproduction which is in the longterm interest of the society. Socioeconomic policies may have bothnegative and positive effects on demographic processes, and these effects may be delayed for 25 years or more. In the past, when economic and social plans covered only 5-year periods, the impact of these plans on demographic factors could be ignored. In longterm planning these consequences cannot be ignored. Population policies must address the longterm consequences of socioeconomic development, the regional variations in population parameters, and the complexities of the relationship between demographic and socioeconomic factors. As socialist societies evolve they eventually reach a stage where it is necessary to develop a theory and a methodolgy for managing demographic processes. The development of appropriate demographic goals and policies will require the cooperation of not only demographers, but of medical professionals, sociologists, and economists. The initial tasks of a goal oriented population program should be to stabilize the birth rate, to prevent further declines in fertility rates, to increase life expectancy to its biological limits, to reduce death rates, to equalize regional living standards, to control immigration, and to improve resettlement programs. Eventually policymakers must address the problem of developing an optimal and uniform level of reproduction for the nation as a whole. An organization structure, both at the national and regional level for developing and implementing the population program must be specified. Regional programs must be coordinated at the national level and developed in accordance with national goals.     

Economic consequences of an aging population

Europe and Japan are experiencing the aging of their populations. Aging implies a restructuring of the economy. Political issues which arise in an aging society include 1) a voting majority for the interests of the elderly, 2) a voting majority of females, 3) the domination of the decision power in corporate and similar ruling bodies, and 4) unemployment or a long wait for promotion for younger people. Economic issues of an aging society include 1) population aging often occurs under reduced rates of growth of per capita national income, 2) the relative economic status of the elderly very much depends on the currently existing tax transfer systems, and 3) the income of families whose head is over age 65 has generally been more unequally distributed than the income for younger families. Issues concerning the labor supply of the elderly include 1) the availability of pension income and health limitations strongly influence decisions to retire and 2) older workers become disheartened and choose early retirement when facing bad reemployment prospects. In general, population aging is likely to have its most substantive effect on the overall level of productivity in an economy where technical knowledge is changing rapidly and strong competition necessitates a high degree of adaptability of the labor force.     

Labor resources and the current economic development of the USSR

The key task in creating balanced employment in the Soviet Union at the present time involves reducing the number of jobs to a level that corresponds to the actual potential for filling them. Such a step will serve as the basis for a more systematic organization of all aspects of the socialist expanded reproduction of labor power and of general social and economic progress. In the future, however, the mass release of workers from material production as a result of the scientific-technological revolution may create a manpower surplus. The labor shortage should be eliminated by the year 2000, and the working age population will have expanded, requiring expanded employment opportunities. The socialist system of employment must guarantee the systematic employment of the able-bodied population at any qualitative level of social production. The experience of other European socialist countries suggests several guidelines for employment policy. Bringing payroll costs closer to the actual cost of reproduction of labor power can be an important factor in the saving and release of workers in conjunction with the technical and organizational improvement of production. A special system must be formed in advance for the retraining, material support, and redistribution of released workers. Finally, cadres must by psychologically prepared for a much higher level of labor mobility.     

Methods and results of constructing a typology of families based on level of material well-being. Example of the rural population

A methodological approach is developed to analyze the well-being of family households among the rural population of Altai Krai, USSR. Well-being is defined in both material and nonmaterial terms, and various factors are assigned components to construct an integral typology of families. Implications for the development of social policy to improve the socioeconomic status of poor families are discussed.     

户籍对价、劳动力迁移与土地流转

土地流转的根本目的在于社会经济发展方式的转变,需要城市化的大力发展,劳动力迁移和土地流转是城市化发展的一个重要环节。然而,在中国目前的制度约束下,户籍制度成为劳动力迁移的退出和进入壁垒。户籍制度之所以成为城市化的一个障碍,就在于附着于其上的福利价值,所以,要消除这一障碍必须交换其福利价值。本文认为,在农村劳动力城市化迁移中,通过户籍对价来解决迁移劳动力的土地退出和城市安置,不仅能够鼓励劳动力迁移,而且也有利于土地流转。这是一种可行的户籍改革措施和城市化的发展策略。     

我国小城镇可持续发展战略思考

发展小城镇是我国国民经济和社会发展的大战略,本文肯定了小城镇发展的意义和作用,并分析了其发展中存在的问题。文章认为在我国人口不断增长、自然资源短缺、环境问题突出等现实约束下,小城镇必须提升发展质量,走可持续发展之路,并提出相关努力方向。     

美国的农业政策对中国农业发展的启示

美国直接从事农业生产的人口只有600万,却生产了世界约20%的粮食,劳动力素质高、生产技术水平高、劳动生产率高,尚且需要高额农业补贴。中国要用不到世界10%的耕地养活占世界22%的人口是极不容易的,而要使8亿农民脱贫致富更加困难,所以“三农”问题一直是我国经济建设中的焦点。美国2002年新的农业法大幅度提高了政府对农业基础设施建设、农业科技和农产品的补贴,虽然两国的国情大不相同,其作法却值得我国借鉴。我国的农业基础差、农业人口基数大、人均拥有资源少、农业生产率低,要彻底解决“三农”问题,必须大量减少农业人口,以实现规模化生产、集约化经营。     

How efficient is maize production among smallholder farmers in Zimbabwe? A comparison of semiparametric and parametric frontier efficiency analyses

The controversial Fast Track Land Reform Programme in Zimbabwe that redistributes commercially-owned farmland to smallholder households has caused concerns about the efficiency of agricultural production in the country. In this paper, we estimate the efficiency of resource use among smallholder farmers in Zimbabwe when producing maize, the staple crop in the country. Using both a semiparametric model and a fully parametric stochastic frontier model, we find significant production shortfalls for smallholder maize production. While labor, capital, and land all significantly affect the total output, the estimated mean efficiency score for farms with less than 10 hectares of land (A1) appears to be under 0.75, and for the entire sample (A1 and A2) it ranges between 0.595 and 0.772. There clearly exists a great potential for maize farmers to improve the technical efficiency and increase the total output. Gender and age of the household head, access to extension services, and activities of other crops significantly affect the technical efficiency of smallholder maize production in Zimbabwe. We also find that all farms operate under increasing returns to scale and that the technical efficiency score tends to increase with the level of output.     

Economic-demographic interactions and the impact of investments in population control

The interaction between economic and demographic factors in the Philippines was examined, analyzing the effects of investment in fertility control on the birthrate, population size, and such economic variables as gross national product (GNP), wage rate, and family income. A family planning model that was constructed and is used to project population program cost and births prevented is grafted to and simulated with a larger economic/demographic model. The simulation results are anayzed. The economic demographic model to which the family planning subsystem was grafted is a modified version of the model constructed by Encarnacion et al. (1974). It is basically a neoclassical model, a closed economy in which the real wage rate is determined by the intersection of the demand and supply of labor. The demand for labor is derived from a Cobb-Douglas production function on the assumption that labor is paid the value of its margin product, and the labor supply is determined by age and sex specific labor force participation rates and population. Capital accumulation is influenced by population size through its effect on government and private consumption expe nditures. Fertility rate is determined by duration of marriage and the level and distribution of family incomes. The model was used to develop projections from 1970 through 2000. Results show that the effects on per capital income and real wage rate seem significant, yet family income appears largely unaffected and the effect on the traditional investment to output ratio (I/Y) seems minimal. One of the outcomes of the projection without family planning is that, if the economy were to depend solely on its own savings, the average annual rate of growth of gross national product (GNP) would be only about 4.32%, which is less than the historical growth rate of 6% and the present government longterm target of 8%. The result suggests that foreign investments and loans would have to play an increasingly important role in the economic growth of the Philippines unless the gross domestic investment of GNP ratio is increased substantially. Aggregate output is reduced due to a relatively smaller labor force. Thus, it is suggested that if population control programs are accompanied by an increase in the labor participation rate, particularly of women, the payoffs from family planning may be larger. Closer examination of the nature of the payoffs from the family planning program would reveal that they basically stem from the decrease in the number of persons sharing in national output and not from increased production and saving. The observation suggests that population control does not necessarily lead to more rapid economic growth defined as sustained increase in total output.     

经济结构调整过程中农村土地制度的创新

二元经济结构的改善需要农地制度的创新.农地制度改革目标模式的设计必须兼顾社会保障与效率两重功能,国有制、个人所有制、土地股份制都不符合这一原则.作者的产权分析框架认为,产权效率取决于权利的界定及实施.中国农地制度改革的方向,是坚持集体所有制的前提,通过农地权利的界定、农村集体经济组织决策制度的创新,进一步理顺乡镇政府、村集体组织与农民的关系.     

The position of women and demographic policy

This article analyzes the effect of women's social roles on fertility and the possibilities of influencing fertility by means of demographic policies in the USSR. The most important influences on the birth rate are related to the changing social position of women and the functions of the family which have resulted from social, economic, and cultural transformations in the Soviet state since the revolution. The processes of industrialization, urbanization, higher labor productivity, and rising educational and cultural standards have removed the productive functions of the family and have also altered its consumer functions. The upbringing of children is increasingly labor intensive because of the need for more educated, higher quality workers. In 1970, 82% of women of working age were employed; their greater involvement in social production and reduced free time, combined with the prestige and economic and social independence gained from outside work, have encouraged a small family orientation. Comprehensive demographic policies including measures to help women combine work in social production with motherhood are needed to promote 2 or 3 child families. Along with measures aimed at the population as a whole, specific measures are needed that take into account the distinctive life styles and behavior of separate local population groups. A socialist society with a planned economy can utilize diverse methods of encouraging childbirth, including material assistance to families with children and sociopsychological measures to promote larger families.     

人口老龄化影响财政与货币政策的有效性吗?

文章将人口结构、财政支出结构和货币政策引入新凯恩斯动态随机一般均衡框架,重点分析了人口老龄化对我国宏观调控经济政策的影响.研究结果显示:除了人口老龄化自身对经济增长的负面影响,留给宏观调控政策的腾挪空间也越发有限?影响政策调控的有效性,增加政策实施的成本.(1)除了加重财政养老负担,人口老龄化更损害财政刺激效果和财政绩效质量,限制政府实施反周期政策的能力,压缩财政政策发挥的空间;(2)老年人主导的社会对通货膨胀的容忍度将不断下调,势必削弱货币政策刺激总需求能力,增加政策实施成本,迫使中央银行改变货币政策操作方式,可能采取更激进措施以实现相同效果,强化金融脆弱性;(3)相比增加人口生育率,提高劳动参与率既是缓解短期财政养老负担、保障养老融资可持续性的关键,也是有效增加劳动供给、改善政策发挥生态环境,进而提高财政政策与货币政策有效性的权宜之计.