立足扩大内需坚持科学发展努力保持经济平稳较快增长

一、2008年经济运行的基本情况 2008年以来,在自治区党委、政府的正确领导下,全区各地坚持以科学发展观为指导,全面落实国家扩大内需的各项政策措施,积极支援抗灾保煤、抗震救灾和北京奥运,在国内外经济环境日益趋紧的形势下,全区经济总体实现较快增长,经济结构进一步优化,民生状况进一步改善.2008年经济运行呈现以下特点:     

主要国际组织对世界和中国经济的预测

2008年4月,国际货币基金组织、英国共识公司、亚洲开发银行、亚太经社理事会等纷纷发布了2008年世界和中国经济的最新预测。与去年相比,这些预测均下调了2008年世界经济增长率,上调了世界消费者价格上涨率。2008年世界经济增长进一步放缓,但呈前低后高变动格局;消费者价格基本呈持续上涨的趋势;世界贸易受经济     

2008年广西资源环境监测统计报告

2008年，我区全面贯彻落实科学发展观，稳步推进和谐社会建设，全区居民生活质量不断提高，环境状况进一步改善，2008年广西环境保护和生态建设取得新进展。     

着力推动上海国企科学发展

2008年以来,特别是自2008年9月上海市委市政府颁布《关于进一步推进上海国资国企改革发展的若干意见》以后,国资系统各单位认真贯彻落实市委市政府要求,积极推进国资国企改革发展,取得的成绩值得充分肯定。     

前沿政策

■天津市2008年1月1日起提高增值税起征点为进一步贯彻落实市委、市政府有关部署,加大力度促进个体经济发展,鼓励下岗失业人员再就业和提高个体经营者收入,市国税局决定自2008年1月1日起提高增值税起征点。     

科技——全球创新挑战“2008中关村论坛”在京召开

2008年11月14-15日,主题为“科技——全球创新挑战”的2008中关村论坛在北京隆重召开。本届论坛旨在进一步加强国际创新区域合作,不断提升中国在国际科技创新舞台上的影响力。     

日本央行：下调2008财年经济增长预期

日本中央银行——日本银行在4月30日公布的经济展望报告中，将2008财年（2008年4月至2009年3月）日本经济增长预期由此前预测的2．1％下调至1．5％，预计通胀将进一步加速。     

辽宁,11个展位“风景”最迷人

2008年11月20至23日,由国家旅游局、中国民用航空局、上海市人民政府联合主办的2008中国国际旅游交易会在上海新国际博览中心隆重举行。本届旅交会展览规模空前,参展商数量再创新高,国际化进程进一步加快,参展国家     

项目动态

青海:湟中县2008年将投资30多亿元实施建设项目2008年,青海省西宁市湟中县将进一步把项目建设作为促进全县经济社会发展的根本来抓,计划实施各类项目204项,总投资30多亿元,力争年内完成投资7.8亿元。     

国家信息中心:2008年财政政策结构性特征将呈现七个特点

国家信息中心日前发布报告称,2008年财政政策的结构性特征将更为明显,表现在以下七个方面: 第一,加大保障措施,减轻居民的后顾之忧,促进消费结构升级.2008年,国家将进一步加大对民生事业的财政投入力度,让广大人民群众共享改革发展成果.     

Trend analysis of Russian Banks’ qualitative composition

The paper offers an approach to the typification of homogeneous groups of banks, using some revenue source dominance criterion applied to Russia’s banking sector and a database for the 2008–2011 period. The authors define the major trends in changes in the structure of Russia’s banking sector under the conditions of crisis-related phenomena.     

Bank dependence and financial constraints on investment: Evidence from the corporate bond market paralysis in Japan

This paper investigates whether firms are able to substitute bank loans for public debt when the latter become less available to firms. To do so, this paper utilizes the 2008 financial crisis and its impact on Japanese markets as a natural experiment. Because the Japanese banking sector remained functional while the corporate bond markets were paralyzed, the data from Japan during this period provide us with an ideal environment to examine this hypothesis. I specifically examined whether firms with large holdings of corporate bonds maturing in FY2008 were financially constrained, by comparing the changes in their capital investment expenditures and borrowing conditions with those of bank-dependent firms. The main empirical results indicate that (1) firms with large holdings of corporate bonds maturing in FY2008 did not reduce investment expenditures; (2) instead, they exhibited higher increments in bank loans; and (3) firms that maintained relatively close bank-firm relationships had greater access to bank loans with low borrowing costs. These findings demonstrate that Japanese firms were able to substitute bank loans for public debt during the crisis and imply that the Japanese banking sector worked efficiently to replace public debt markets during the crisis.     

Competitive Conditions in the Tanzanian Commercial Banking Industry

Abstract: Since 1991, Tanzania has made important improvements in reforming its financial sector, dismantling the state‐dominated banking sector and allowing foreign bank entry. Despite this, the banking industry is still concentrated with low accessibility to financial services. Large foreign banks dominate the financial landscape, preventing competitive dynamism to permeate the sector. This paper analyses the competitive nature of the Tanzanian banking industry from 2004 to 2008. Utilizing a rich bank level data set, we employ the Panzar–Rosse methodology to compute the competitive index, taking into account risk, efficiency, regulatory and macroeconomic factors. The results show that banks in Tanzania earned their income under conditions of oligopolistic conduct. Moreover, the competitive index derived from an interest revenue equation was not significantly different from that obtained using an aggregate revenue measure. This suggests that the degree of contestability from traditional intermediation activities approximates overall bank behaviour. The overall message is that greater market contestability can be achieved by adopting measures aimed at stimulating competitiveness in the banking sector, including consolidating gains on the macroeconomic front and allowing more foreign bank entry so as to increase the spread of banking services.     

中国外资银行服务贸易自由化的经济影响研究——基于可计算一般均衡SIC-GE模型的定量分析

本文利用2005～2009年以来我国逐渐取消外资银行进入壁垒的实际数据,通过设立银行业收益和成本方程发现并估算出消除壁垒带来的两方面行业直接效应,即外资银行服务价格水平下降1.9%和国内银行业经济效率改进1.8%。在此基础上利用国家信息中心可计算一般均衡模型(SIC-GE)就壁垒消除对整个经济体的影响进行了系统评估。测算结果表明,两个直接效应中,改进国内银行业经济效率的经济影响是主要的;从宏观层面上看,短期内能够带来就业和GDP相对基准情景增长,同时居民消费、投资和出口有所增长。进口随着国内需求的扩张略有增长,净出口明显扩大。总体上,研究结果表明,2005年以来我国逐渐取消外资银行贸易壁垒是一项较为有效的政策举措,具有较好的示范作用。     

Banking Sector Development and Energy Consumption in Nigeria: Exploring the Causal Relationship and its Implications

This study examines the causal relationship between banking sector development and energy consumption in Nigeria over the period 1971–2013 incorporating crude oil price and indicators of economic performance. An autoregressive distributed lag bounds testing approach to cointegration provides evidence of long‐run relationship among the variables. The long‐run and short‐run estimates suggest that a non‐linear inverted U‐shaped relationship exists between banking sector development and energy consumption in Nigeria, indicating that initially, energy consumption increases as the banking sector develops and then declines as the banking sector matures to generate efficiency in energy consumption. In addition, this study explores the direction of causality between the variables using the Toda–Yamamoto Granger causality test procedure. The results suggest that a unidirectional causality runs from crude oil price to banking sector development, from banking sector development to energy consumption and from energy consumption to economic growth. It may therefore be necessary for policy makers in Nigeria to incorporate banking sector development in the energy and sustainable economic policies.     

Banking Sector Fragility and the Transmission of Currency Crises

We assess whether, complementary to trade and financial linkages, banking sector fragility helps explain the transmission of currency crises. We attempt to strike a balance between the precision of measurement of banking sector fragility on the one hand and its consistent measurement across various crisis episodes on the other. We find that while the role of trade and financial linkages is robust over time, the independent role of banking sector fragility is rather weak and unstable across crisis episodes. Consequently it is difficult to extrapolate observed banking fragility transmission channels from one crisis to another. As a corollary we cannot conclude that during future crisis episodes economies characterized by fragile banking sectors are more prone to crisis transmission.     

Competition and Efficiency in the Banking Sector in South Africa

Abstract: We analyse the evolution of competition and efficiency of the banking sector in South Africa using firm‐level data for the period 1999–2008. We adopt a three‐step estimation approach. First, we measure efficiency using the data envelopment analysis (DEA) methodology. Second, we use the Panzar–Rosse approach to derive the H‐statistic for competitive conditions in banking. In the third stage, we take into account the role of managerial ability in competition by re‐estimating the Panzar–Rosse model, with the DEA efficiency scores as an explanatory variable. Overall, the results show that although average efficiency was trending upwards over the period, the number of efficient banks was falling. Also, it is found that for the period 1999–2008, the structure of the South African banking industry was characterized by monopolistic competition. This result may reflect domination by five large banks, which together account for over 85 per cent of total banking assets.     

Testing the Validity of the Simultaneous Openness Hypothesis in Nigeria (1990–2015)

Since the seminal paper by Rajan and Zingales in 2003, a plethora of studies have been motivated to establish whether the simultaneous opening of trade and capital borders leads to financial sector development. We test whether the simultaneous openness hypothesis is valid for Nigeria, with a focus on the banking sector and stock market. Using annual data from 1990 to 2015 and an instrumental variable regression estimation technique, we show that the simultaneous increase of trade and financial openness limits banking sector and stock market development. Thus, there is no empirical evidence to validate the simultaneous openness hypothesis in Nigeria. It also shows that trade openness is more beneficial for banking sector and stock market development in Nigeria than financial openness.     

中国银行业市场化改革的五个阶段及特点

改革开放以来,中国经济社会转型不仅是中国银行业改革的大背景,也是银行制度市场化演进的推动力。与此相适应,中国银行制度受强制性制度变迁的影响不断缩小,而受市场主导下的诱致性制度变迁的影响不断扩大。银行体制、运行机制、市场结构的市场化变迁过程呈现五个不同的阶段性特点,经历了一个从计划经济体制下的银行制度到基本符合市场经济要求的现代银行制度转变的过程。     

ECONOMIC GROWTH, CONVERGENCE CLUBS, AND THE ROLE OF FINANCIAL DEVELOPMENT

This paper aims to show and test the existence of a povertytrap linked to the development of the banking sector. Our theoreticalmodel exhibits multiple steady state equilibria due to a reciprocalexternality between the banking sector and the real sector.Growth in the real sector causes the financial market to expand,thereby increasing banking competition and efficiency. In return,the development of the banking sector raises the net yield onsavings and enhances capital accumulation and growth. The aimof our econometric tests is to check the existence of multiplesteady states associated with financial and educational development.