经济政策不确定性、资产可逆性与固定资产投资

本文利用2012年139部门国民经济投入产出表测算行业资产可逆性,并依据证监会行业分类匹配至非金融类A股上市公司,进而考察资产可逆性如何影响经济政策不确定性与固定资产投资的关系。考虑到资产可逆性与项目投资失败时的清算价值正相关,本文从经济政策不确定性上升会增加项目投资收益率波动的视角构建理论分析框架,并利用2007—2017年季度数据对理论假说进行实证检验。结果表明,随着所处行业的资产可逆性提升,经济政策不确定性对企业固定资产投资的抑制作用被弱化,且该效应在融资约束严重的企业更为凸显。特别地,在控制经济周期特征、投资机会和抵押担保效应后,上述研究结论依旧成立。此外,考虑到模型内生性、经济政策不确定性和资产可逆性的度量方式、行业匹配度及模型设定形式等问题,系列稳健性测试均证实资产可逆性这一传导渠道的重要性。本文结论表明,资产处置成本是企业投资决策的重要决定因素。     

资产专用性、淘汰落后产能政策与上市公司资本投资

基于投资支出——投资机会模型,分别考察资产专用性、淘汰落后产能政策及其交互作用,对工业企业上市公司资本投资的影响。研究结果表明：拥有越高资产专用性的企业,其资本投资越大;淘汰落后产能政策加速了政策所属行业企业的投资;但对于拥有较高资产专用性的淘汰落后产能政策所属行业企业,淘汰落后产能政策抑制了其资本投资,这种情况在公司所在地地方政府环境政策支持度较高的地区尤其明显,而在地方政府环境政策支持度较低的地区则不显著。     

经济政策不确定性与垂直整合——基于供应链视角的传导机制解释

垂直整合指企业控制产业链上、下游环节,将上下游企业间交易内化为企业内部的生产和管理活动.不同于以往专注企业独立个体的研究,文章从供应链视角出发,探究经济政策不确定性对企业垂直整合的影响,利用2000-2018年A股制造业上市公司作为研究样本,并手工整理、测算垂直整合指标,研究发现,经济政策不确定性程度越高,企业越倾向于垂直整合.分企业、行业和区域三个层面的异质性检验结果显示,对于非国有企业、资产专用性较高的企业、高科技行业、竞争性行业、动荡性行业以及东部地区,经济政策不确定性对垂直整合的影响效应更为明显.稳健性检验及工具变量估计结果一致显示,该结论稳健成立.进一步,文章从供应链角度诠释了经济政策不确定性促进企业垂直整合的传导机理.结果显示,经济政策不确定性会削弱上、下游企业的投资强度,导致更高的融资约束,从而推动企业加速垂直整合、完善供应链管理.文章从供应链管理的视角为地方政府和企业应对突发事件以及由此导致的政策不确定性提供了有益启示.     

经济政策不确定性与房地产投资

中国房地产市场向来被称为"政策市"。房地产市场的波动受到经济政策的显著影响。理论上看,经济政策不确定性的上升并非等同于政策风险的增加,其对房地产投资的影响并不确定。基于边界协整检验的实证研究表明,在控制产出、利率和房价的影响后,经济政策不确定性会显著影响房地产开发投资和住宅投资,但出人意料的是,其对房地产投资的长期影响是正面的。在短期内,政策不确定性的波动会对房地产投资的增长有负面影响。进一步,财政政策、货币政策、汇率政策和贸易政策的不确定性对房地产投资的影响存在异质性。     

不确定性、资产专用性和服务业中关系导向的营销战略

服务具有无形性 ,易变形 ,不可分性 ,不可储存性。服务的特殊性质往往容易形成交易中双方较高的不确定性 ,以及较高程度的资产专用性 ,如果仅进行一次交易会导致资源配置扭曲 ,社会福利受损。文章借助不完全信息动态博弈理论中的声誉模型和交易费用理论对服务业选择关系导向的营销战略作了解释 ,并给出关系导向的营销战略的定义。     

全球经济不确定性对另类资产投资影响研究——基于艺术品和黄金投资视角

面对百年未有之大变局,世界经济不确定性明显增加,另类资产逐渐引起全球投资者的关注,成为当今世界资产配置的重要组成部分。作为典型的另类资产,民间有在经济繁荣时期购买艺术品、在经济不确定时期投资黄金的经验总结。这一传统民间智慧在当今开放市场时代是否可以古为今用,值得深入探讨。本文采用最近20年全球中国艺术品拍卖市场微观数据和上海黄金交易所黄金现货数据,将艺术品和黄金放在统一框架下进行分析,探究国际和国内宏观经济对两类另类资产投资的影响差异,以及在不同经济周期情况下两类资产的资产配置效应。研究发现：艺术品市场受国内宏观环境影响较大,艺术精品市场与股票市场的替代效应更强;黄金作为全球认可的准货币,全球黄金市场受国际市场（汇率、全球经济政策不确定性等）影响较大;艺术品和黄金在当今全球化市场下呈现出新的投资特征,艺术品抗内部通胀、黄金抗外部风险,艺术品和黄金市场组合具有“双重避险效应”。在全球经济政策低（高）不确定性时期,两类资产相关性负相关（接近于0）,在不同经济周期时期两类资产都能够降低资产组合的风险来提高资产配置的投资表现。     

经济政策不确定性与实体经济投资效率

选取2007—2020年中国沪深A股上市实体企业数据,实证探究经济政策不确定性对实体经济投资效率的影响及作用机制。结果发现,经济政策不确定性对实体经济投资效率具有显著提升作用,交易成本效应、内部融资效应、科技创新效应是经济政策不确定性提升实体经济投资效率的主要途径。同时,经济政策不确定性对实体经济投资效率的影响存在企业与区域异质性,在私营企业、技术密集型企业以及东部地区企业中,经济政策不确定性对实体经济投资效率的提升作用更为显著。由此,提出优化内部金融资源配置效率、积极发挥资本市场有效调控作用、打造差异化实体经济价值投资机制的对策建议。     

Economic policy uncertainty,CEO characteristics and firm R&D expenditure: a Bayesian analysis

ABSTRACT

This paper applies a linear Bayesian regression model to study the effects of economic policy uncertainty (EPU) and Chief Executive Officer (CEO) characteristics on firm Research and Development (R&D) expenditure. We specifically analysed data from 1,163 Chinese companies listed as A-shares from 2008–2016. EPU is believed to curtail firm investments as it causes unexpected market conditions. Yet, our findings obtained with Bayesian analysis show a positive relationship between EPU and firm R&D expenditure. Specifically, we found that some CEO attributes (e.g., age, tenure and marketing/sales experience) led to a negative relationship between EPU and firm R&D expenditure, whereas other attributes (e.g., education, overseas study/work experience, product R&D experience, and process engineering experience) lead to a positive relationship. Our findings provide nuanced insights into how different CEO characteristics influence firms’ R&D expenditure in a context of uncertainty.     

Economic policy uncertainty and firm investment: evidence from the U.S. market

This paper examines the impact of economic policy uncertainty on firm-level capital investment, by not only delving into the long-term investment-uncertainty relation like previous studies, but also analyzing the short-term investment-uncertainty relation for the U.S. market. The empirical investigations show that firms decrease short-term, long-term, and total firm investments when encountering higher economic policy uncertainties. The research also explores the non-linear investment-uncertainty relation based on various theories. Our findings present a U-shaped relationship between short-term, long-term, and total investments and uncertainties. Policy implications are provided from our empirical results.     

经济政策不确定性对企业创新持续性的影响——基于非线性视角的实证分析

创新是经济发展的动力之源，而创新持续性则是企业保持竞争优势的关键。本文以2009—2020年A股上市公司为样本，探究经济政策不确定性对企业创新持续性的影响。研究发现：经济政策不确定与企业创新持续性之间具有“U型”非线性关系，且研发投入在其中发挥部分中介作用。进一步研究发现：经济政策不确定性对企业创新持续性的“U型”非线性影响在不同区位因素及知识产权保护力度差异下表现出异质性；多个大股东持股及较为宽松的货币政策能够缓解经济政策不确定性对企业创新持续性的“U型”影响。故政府在采用宏观经济政策调控经济发展时要谨慎把握政策调控的尺度，进一步完善我国多层次的资本市场体系，从而不断提升企业的创新持续性水平，推动我国经济的高质量发展。     

Economic policy,the new economy and the social rate of return to R&D in UK manufacturing

This article focuses on the question of whether public policy changes and/or the new economy have influenced the social returns to R&D expenditure in UK manufacturing over the three decades up to the end of the millennium. The basic methodology is reasonably straightforward, to estimate a production function in which, in addition to labour and fixed capital, R&D appears separately in a form that directly enables estimates of the social return to investment in knowledge and how it has changed over time. The results suggest that neither changes in government R&D policy nor the new economy have raised social returns to R&D.     

俄罗斯研发投入述评

俄罗斯对研发的投入分国家预算资金投入、企业部门投入、国外资金投入和其它投入，业已形成成熟的研发投资机制。在联邦专项计划的框架下，俄政府更加注重创新基础设施发展、科研成果商业化机制建设、优秀科学流派的扶持和科技人才问题的解决。联邦政府还采取多种措施吸引预算外资金，鼓励工业、企业界等资助研发。与世界发达国家相比较，俄对研发投入的结构性特点是政府投入的比重在国内研发支出中占主导地位。     

Effects of asset purchases and financial stability measures on term premia in the euro area

We study the effects of the announcements of ECB asset purchases and of financial stability measures in the euro area in the wake of the global financial crisis and the euro area sovereign debt crisis on 10-year government bond term premia in 11 euro area countries. We find that the term premia of euro area countries with higher sovereign risk, as measured by sovereign CDS spreads, decreased more in response to the announcements of asset purchases and financial stability measures. Term premia of countries with lowest sovereign risk either increased as in Germany, or were not significantly affected or fell slightly, as in the Netherlands and Finland.     

Growth effects of FDI in 80 developing economies: the role of policy reforms and institutional constraints

Theoretical and empirical literatures have identified several channels through which foreign direct investment (FDI) influences economic growth. This paper examines the impact of FDI on economic output growth per worker using aggregate production function augmented with FDI inflows, economic policy reforms and institutional constraints. The paper covers 80 developing countries over the period 1980–2006. We use panel data and employ fixed, random effects and GMM methods for estimation. Our results highlight the importance of FDI, policy reforms and institutional development for growth in developing economies. Finally, we demonstrate that irrespective of reforms and institutions, an increase in FDI affects output growth positively.     

Economic policy uncertainty and the Chinese stock market volatility: new evidence

This study investigates the impacts of the economic policy uncertainty (EPU) indexes of China and the G7 countries on Chinese stock market volatility and further constructs a new diffusion index based on these indexes using principal component analysis (PCA) to achieve enhanced predictive ability. The in-sample results indicate that the EPU indexes of China and some of the G7 countries show a significantly negative impact on future volatility. Moreover, our constructed diffusion index also has a significantly negative impact. Furthermore, the out-of-sample results show that this diffusion index exhibits a significantly higher forecast accuracy than the EPU itself and combination forecasts. Finally, various robustness checks are consistent with our main conclusions. Overall, we construct a new and useful indicator that can substantially increase forecast accuracy with respect to the Chinese stock market.     

R&D intensity of investment across Europe before and after the crisis

In this paper we investigate the comovements between the R&D intensity of private investment and GDP growth in different European Union (EU) areas over the period 1999–2014. Our empirical analysis shows that only core countries display a common countercyclical mechanism leading to an increased intensity of R&D over prolonged downturns. The lack of an effective countercyclical pattern of R&D intensity over the evolution of GDP growth in periphery countries makes this area highly vulnerable to persistent recessions, with potentially harmful consequences for long‐term growth. For recent EU members the evidence of acyclicality should be evaluated in the light of the catching‐up process still at work in this area. Our analysis suggests that any successful EU innovation policy should not disregard the potential divergence in R&D performance due to the dispersion of the countercyclical properties of the investment intensity in productivity enhancing activities in the different EU areas.     

外国直接投资、经济规模与二氧化碳排放关系研究

外国直接投资在我国经济发展过程中发挥了巨大的作用，然而随着经济规模的发展，我国的环境问题也日益突出。通过对外国直接投资与经济规模以及经济规模与二氧化碳排放之间的格兰杰因果关系进行检验，发现外国直接投资是我国经济规模增长的格兰杰原因，而经济规模是二氧化碳排放的格兰杰原因，也就是说外国直接投资增加可以通过经济规模导致我国二氧化碳排放量的上升。