MEASURING OUTPUT FROM THE PUBLIC SECTOR: A CRITICAL EXAMINATION OF THE ATKINSON REVIEW

In 1993 a new page was turned in national accounting. The United Nations Standards of National Accounting recommended a new standard for the measurement of output from the public sector. Implementation has recently begun in many countries, in Europe based on a European Union directive. In the U.K. the Atkinson Review in 2005 came up with a series of recommendations. This article examines its recommendations concerning the definition and valuation of government outputs. For the non‐market sector a market analog is recommended by the Review. However, several of its recommendations are inconsistent with that, championing social value as a basis for definitions and measurement. If taken seriously it will lead to arbitrary and politically controversial factors inserted into national accounts. The article highlights the norm that GDP is a measure of production, and advocates adhering to the market analog and following well recognized practices of national accounting.     

DATA REVISIONS AND FORECASTING ACCURACY: AN ECONOMETRIC ANALYSIS BASED ON PRELIMINARY AND REVISED NATIONAL ACCOUNTING ESTIMATES*

This paper entails an investigation of the effects of data revisions on forecasting accuracy, through use of preliminary and revised national accounting data compiled by the United Nations. A small model was estimated for each of fourteen countries and ex post“forecasts” generated for each country and each year of the period 1957–1964, using first preliminary and then revised data. A prior analysis of the data revisions indicated a strong and widespread tendency for the preliminary estimates to understate both levels and year-to-year changes. This is consistent with the findings of other studies. Two sets of forecasts obtained from the reduced form of the model were considered in relation to “actual” levels and changes, obtained from the revised data, and also in relation to each other. A strong downward bias was observed in the forecasts of levels based on preliminary data, and a weaker one in the forecasts of changes. The forecast discrepancies for different variables were found to be significantly correlated. The results suggest that a tendency toward understatement in preliminary data may account in part for the general tendency toward understatement in forecasts noted in other studies.     

COMMENT MESURER LA CONTRIBUTION DU SECTEUR NON STRUCTURE A LA PRODUCTION NATIONALE DANS LES PAYS DU TIERS MONDE?*

This article discusses methods of integrating the “informal sector” in the national accounts of developing countries. This sector, defined generally as composed of producers who do not keep formal accounts, is difficult to capture by usual statistical collection techniques, and therefore is often neglected. The paper develops the requirements for a direct inquiry approach to obtaining data for this sector, emphasizing the need for national, exhaustive, and periodic coverage. It then proceees to propose methods of analysis for informal sector enterprises with and without fixed locations, tailored to the specific characteristics of each trade. The final section presents some results of application of the proposed methods in Tunisia and Niger.     

Measuring the Labor Income Share of Developing Countries: Lessons From Social Accounting Matrices

This paper addresses the challenges of measuring the labor income share of developing countries. The poor availability and reliability of national account data as well as the fact that self-employed—whose labor income is hard to capture—account for a major share of the workforce and often work in the informal sector render its computation difficult. Consequently, measuring the labor share requires assumptions. I consult social accounting matrices in addition to national account data to gain information on the production structure and self-employed incomes in developing countries. The final data set covers about 90 developing countries from 1990 to 2011. The data suggest that the finding of declining labor shares of previous studies also applies to the sample of low and middle-income countries. Furthermore, I find the labor share in developing countries to be about one-half in size and hence less than the standard “two-thirds” in economic literature.     

AN EXAMINATION OF THE FEASIBILITY OF USING MONETARY DATA FOR NATIONAL INCOME ESTIMATES

In a number of underdeveloped countries today, adequate statistics for estimating national output by traditional national accounting methods are unavailable or unreliable. However, many of these same countries do publish data on monetary variables at an early stage in their development. These data can now be used to estimate national income.
In this study the money supply was defined to include all currency in circulation, private deposits subject to check at all banks and postal systems, all government deposits, and unused overdrafts less float. The national accounts data were taken from United Nations sources and data supplied by various foreign statistical offices. To make the accounts more comparable in terms of coverage and to limit reported income to the monetized sector of the economy, non-monetary imputations were deleted.
The monetary and national accounts data were combined in a multiple, stepwise regression. National income was used as the dependent variable and money supply and other data were used as the independent variables. The final estimating equations explained about 96 per cent of the variation in income between countries. Other tests were conducted using the currency ratio, transactions velocity, population, and per capita consumption. However, these variables did not augment the explanatory power of the regression equations.
When the equations were used to estimate national income for twenty-two under-developed countries, the derived estimates showed a high degree of concordance with reported income where it existed for comparative purposes. The results indicate that monetary data can be used to estimate national income for underdeveloped countries with a relatively high degree of accuracy, between countries, and from year to year within a country.     

适应可持续发展战略要求,建立综合环境─经济核算体系

可持续发展是环境与经济发展的有机统一体，它要求一个与之相适应的核算体系。现行的国民经济核算体系，由于其固有的缺陷，不能完成这一任务。1993年联合国出版的《综合环境与经济核算手册》（即SEEA）提供了环境与经济核算相结合的核算体系，可供借鉴。     

A REVIEW OF SELECTED ASPECTS OF THE UNITED NATIONS SYSTEM OF NATIONAL ACCOUNTS IN THE LIGHT OF COUNTRIES’ EXPERIENCES*

A review of the United Nations System of National Accounts and its implementation by countries is presently being conducted at the United Nations Statistical Office. This article presents a personal and selective account by the author of the results of that review and its consequences for the present structure of the SNA. Information is included on the level of response by countries for the tables of the SNA national accounts questionnaire. It shows that this response is at present sparce, except for the tables on GDP by end use, cost structure and kind of economic activity. On the more detailed level the feasibility of introducing integrated sector accounts into the system has been examined and different approaches compared. Country practices suggest that one way of facilitating the introduction of such accounts would be to eliminate one essential feature of the dual classification of the SNA, i.e., the distinction between quasi-corporate and other unincorporated enterprises. Other modifications of the SNA structure implied below are the introduction on a limited scale of articulation of transactions, the inclusion of additional aggregate income and balancing items, a reallocation of data between the main accounts and the supporting tables, and a better integration of the SNA matrix with the accounts and tables of the system. A reduction of the present number of independent classifications in the SNA is suggested, based on links between categories of different classifications that are assumed in country responses to the questionnaire. A suggestion is made for a uniform valuation of goods and services and income flows, to replace the present complex valuation guidelines on approximate basic and factor values and producers’ prices.     

PROBLEMS OF DETERMINING AND MEASURING THE RELIABILITY OF THE NATIONAL ACCOUNTS: HUNGARY'S EXPERIENCES

Economic realities can be described in national accounting only by certain approximative means and presumptions; therefore they cannot be measured with absolute accuracy. However, because of their great importance these investigations must fulfil as far as possible the reliability required for the economic control and planning of the national economy, in accordance with predetermined concepts and methods. The reliability of national accounting is favourable in Hungary, as they are based mostly (92 percent) on the bookkeeping data of enterprises, cooperatives and institutions. The bookkeeping system is uniform in all economic organizations, in conformity with central regulations, and it takes into account the demand of computations for national accounting. Despite these favourable conditions lesser or greater contradictions can be found in the national accounts every year. The absolute measure of the differences is not significant; however, if compared to the annual increase it results in uncertainty of 15 percent. The uncertainty is reduced by the fact that the sign of differences is the same every year. The author classifies the causes of uncertainty in national accounts into four groups: 1. problems of the time shift of the connected economic processes and of their accounting; 2. effect of the enterprise interests; 3. inadequacy of methodological regulation; 4. inaccuracy of data surveys and processing. The study deals with the special factors of inaccuracy occurring in constant price accounting. Inaccuracy of the most important aggregates, for instance that of the volume index of the national income, comes to 0.5-0.7 percent which results, in the case of a yearly 5 percent “real” increase in the index, in reliability limits of 10 to 15 percent. In the concluding part of the study the author points out that in Hungary the unexplored contradictions are not shown as “statistical discrepancy” but they are included in the various aggregates on the basis of considerations discussed in the study.     

The ministry as the maximizing unit in Soviet industry

Microanalysis of Soviet industry has customarily chosen the enterprise as unit of analysis. This paper recommends that choice of the unit be made according to the criterion of the lowest hierarchical unit customarily receiving plans that hold unchanged for the entire planning period. It experiments with use of the ministry as unit of analysis. Conclusions from statistical data are (1) absence of “taut” planning during normal years of the 1969–1977 period, of with the situation during 1949–1956; (2) absence of any ratchet effect in planning during either period, with greater statistical confidence in this result for the 1969–1977 period.     

Planning and coordination of economic policy in market economies

The purpose of the paper is to analyze the experience of capitalist countries in implementing national economic planning. Planning procedures are examined in order to ascertain whether plans have succeeded in coordinating economic policy. Five operational criteria are formulated that must be satisfied by planning procedures if policy coordination is to be achieved. The planning experience of four capitalist countries, France, Japan, The Netherlands, and Sweden, is then evaluated in the light of the five operational criteria. The conclusion is that planning has been far from successful in coordinating policy.     

ACCOUNTING FOR THE PUBLIC SECTOR IN DEVELOPMENT PLANNING

This paper seeks to set out in some detail an accounting structure for the public sector of developing countries which will provide the information essential for development planning. The public sector is of course of special importance in planning because of its sheer size and its pivotal position for altering the contours of the entire economy. Yet the information available for this strategic area often falls far short of what is needed, and also of what could be provided with more effort.
The paper is divided into a number of sections, the first two of which are concerned with demarcating the public sector and with the nature of the accounting framework proposed. These are followed by sections dealing with the distinction between development and other expenditures; the need for separate financial information; public enterprises; the grouping of expenditures according to the purposes served; and income distribution. A final section touches briefly on some of the data problems involved in implementing the system. In addition, a full set of accounts for the public sector and its components is appended.     

Introduction to the Special Issue on Understanding the Current China-U.S. ‘Trade War’

ABSTRACT

One of the most important international economic events in 2018 was the China-U.S. “trade war.” With China’s growing role in the worldwide economy and geopolitical impacts, the United States has labeled China as a strategy competitor. This notes briefly introduce the six articles covered in the volume. We highlight the causes and possible economic consequences from the perspectives of the United States, China, Japan, the Europe, and even East Asian countries like Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) countries.     

THE SOCIAL ACCOUNTS FROM A CONSUMER'S POINT OF VIEW

After a short introduction, the first part of this paper (section 3 through 9) provides an outline of the revisions proposed to the System of National Accounts (SNA) of the United Nations which are now under discussion. These proposals were considered by an expert group at the end of 1964 and were accepted by the Statistical Commission of the United Nations in 1965 as the basis for further work on the extension and revision of the SNA. The aim of the revision is to provide a fully integrated system of accounts and balance sheets in which input-output, flows-of-funds and sector balance sheets are incorporated in a generalised accounting framework. Whereas the real side of the economy has been studied analytically in many countries (input-output analysis, demand analysis and so on) much less experience is available on modelling the financial side of the economy, apart from econometric work on saving behaviour, which is fairly widespread. Accordingly, the second part of the paper (sections 10 through 14) contains a discussion of financial model-building in which a number of possibilities are explored. The final topic discussed (section 15) is demographic accounting, by which is meant a framework for recording and analysing human, as opposed to economic, flows and stocks. The development of such a system arose out of the emphasis placed by the expert group on the integration of demographic and economic information.     

THE ESTABLISHMENT, REFORM, AND DEVELOPMENT OF CHINA'S SYSTEM OF NATIONAL ACCOUNTS

This paper provides a systematic and comprehensive account of the establishment, reform, and development of China's System of National Accounts, focusing on important changes in concepts and methods in national accounting during China's transition from the Soviet-type Material Product System to the United Nations System of National Accounts, as well as existing problems and challenges that must be faced in the further development of the system.     

THE PRESENT STATE OF NATIONAL ACCOUNTS IN LATIN AMERICA

This document attempts to give an overall review of the present situation of national accounts in Latin America, and deals essentially with the statistical basis and procedures used in their preparation. The purpose of these comments is to place the main problems common to all countries in order of priority and, in view of the need to advance and in the face of the task of establishing the present SNA, to discuss briefly the main lines which future work might follow. The stage of development so far reached by national accounts in Latin America is unsatisfactory if compared with the former system recommended by the United Nations two decades ago, and their recent evolution indicates that the rate of progress has fallen behind the advances made in the theoretical field in this connexion, and in relation to the increasing requirements of macroeconomic information for economic planning and policy. This whole picture becomes more meaningful if the objectives, structure and content of the present SNA, that has already been in force for five years, are compared with the present state of national accounts estimates in the region, which reveals the long road that lies ahead and the magnitude of the effort required if the present situation is to show a change for the better. Clearly, little progress can be made unless the basic statistics are expanded in scope and improved. This is the crux of the problem, towards which the greatest efforts and resources should primarily be channeled. It is necessary to adopt a critical approach and concerted action with respect to four aspects which characterize the national statistical systems in Latin America:

• (a) organizational problems and the shortage of human and financial resources;
• (b) the lack of co-ordinated programmes of basic statistics;
• (c) the limited use of efficient methods of collecting data; and
• (d) the insufficient recourse to administrative records.

     

SURVEY OF COUNTRY PRACTICES IN COMPILING BALANCE-SHEET STATISTICS

From a survey of the 150 members of the United Nations it appears that only one country could at present provide the full range of balance-sheet statistics called for in the United Nations guidelines on this topic. Seven countries could compile balance sheets confined to conventional types of assets and liabilities–excluding assets like consumer durables and mineral deposits. A further 31 countries presently publish some statistics on certain balance sheet items, but as the data have generally not been collected with a view to constructing national balance sheets they tend to be deficient for such purposes both in coverage and valuation. In other countries only rather trivial kinds of balance-sheet data are available, such as certain banking statistics collected by the central monetary authority for purposes of bank regulation.
A review of sources and methods shows that for financial assets and liabilities extensive use is made of company accounts and enterprise surveys. The estate multiplier method is used in several countries for measuring household assets and net worth. As regards producers' fixed assets, countries with centrally-planned economies generally take direct surveys of assets, while in countries with market economies the perpetual inventory method is preferred.
It is noted that many of the purposes for which balance-sheet statistics are used can be adequately served without constructing a complete set of accounts. To date balance-sheet statistics have therefore tended to be developed in a piecemeal fashion with priority going to those parts of the accounts whose uses for economic analysis are most obvious. Chief among these are statistics on the financial assets and liabilities of corporate enterprises and statistics on the stock of producers' fixed assets. These two areas also predominate in countries' plans for the future development of balance-sheet statistics.     

The rise of supplemental lending at the World Bank

World Bank projects sometimes receive supplemental loans months or years after initial project approval. Largely unnoticed, supplemental lending has mushroomed in the last decade, accounting for nearly 30% of all new loans in some years. These loans can serve important functions, as they come without the bureaucratic delays associated with new projects. We argue that supplemental loans are potentially useful foreign policy tools for powerful donors in settings where time is of the essence. Consistent with this, we find that countries receive significantly larger supplemental loans while serving a two‐year term on the geopolitically important United Nations Security Council.     

DEVELOPMENT OF THE NATIONAL ACCOUNTING SYSTEM IN HUNGARY

This paper presents the characteristics of the National Accounting System of Hungary and outlines its development in the last decades and the insufficiencies still existing. Hungary has joined with great interest in the work performed within the frame of the United Nations Statistical Commission concerning the development of the Systems of National Accounts, being interested in applying—as far as possible—the results of the revision of the SNA and MPS in its national practice. The paper first presents a conceptual matrix containing all the major items in the MPS system in order to explain the contents of the items and the interdependencies among them. In this connection a brief account is given of the major differences between the SNA and MPS. The following part of the paper presents the National Accounting System introduced in Hungary in 1968. It is put also within the framework of a matrix, which supplies the items of both the SNA and MPS by means of simple aggregation as well as satisfying the national requirements, so that it is possible to compare the structure and development of the Hungarian economy with those of any other countries. The major differences between the Hungarian system and the current MPS and the revised SNA are then presented.     

European Sector Returns and Capital Market Integration

The paper tests European capital market integration at the sector level. It examines the recent trend of sector‐level returns for four European countries, France, Germany, Italy, and the UK, using “return on assets” of a panel of listed firms of these countries for the period 1988–95. Initial findings suggest that sector returns have converged across countries over time. However, when integration is tested within a capital‐asset pricing model framework, the country effect remains strong. The overall results support the view that European capital market integration is under way, but is far from complete.     

SUGGESTIONS FOR TREATMENT OF HUMAN CAPITAL IN NATIONAL ACCOUNTS—WITH ILLUSTRATIONS FROM INDIAN DATA*

After giving a brief discussion of the biases that exist in the conventional estimation procedures followed in the construction of national accounts, this paper argues for restructuring of national accounts so as to treat human capital formation as investment rather than consumption and suggests that a beginning should be made in respect of schooling. The argument is based on the notion that “investment” or “capital” is that which yields future income streams and also on the rather obvious point that treating as consumption large outlays that really constitute investment distorts analyses of resource allocation, growth and income distribution, and obscures intersectoral relations. It is pointed out that the proposed restructuring of national accounts is more relevant and important for developing countries, many of which are embarked on investment planning. Another major point emphasized is that the input of students’time should be properly measured and included in the estimates of capital formation by schooling. To illustrate what these proposals imply, revision has been attempted of the estimates of (a) educational outlay (or activity in the education sector), (b) gross capital formation, and (c) gross national product, pertaining to the national accounts of a major developing country, namely India, for the years 1960–61 through 1965–66. The modified estimates, though first approximations and covering only a part of the human capital formation and having a systematically downward bias, nevertheless indicate an upward revision of the estimate of activity in the education sector by about 200 to 300 percent, of gross capital formation by about 50 percent and of the gross national product by 4 to 7 percent. These magnitudes show the substantial order of distortion involved in the conventional procedures.