Time,space and competition. Formulations for the development of marketing strategy

Marketing strategy has been based on principles of general equilibrium which has not served decision-makers well. The present discussion argues that are more dynamic and unique elements which must be considered in the development of strategy. The thesis is that competition should be examined in temporal and spatial elements, both of which are highly subjective. It goes on to link these concepts with the entrepreneurial perspective that the environment is a variable which can be shaped. This reinforces a central theme, namely, management's need to recognize and exploit the vast heterogeneity found in markets. Unlike much present theory, the present argument stresses the importance of heterogeneity.     

FINANCIAL DEVELOPMENT AND ECONOMIC GROWTH: A META‐ANALYSIS

We analyze 1334 estimates from 67 studies that examine the effect of financial development on economic growth. Taken together, the studies imply a positive and statistically significant effect, but the individual estimates vary widely. We find that both research design and heterogeneity in the underlying effect play a role in explaining the differences in results. Studies that do not address endogeneity tend to overstate the effect of finance on growth. While the effect seems to be weaker in less developed countries, the effect decreases worldwide after the 1980s. Our results also suggest that stock markets support faster economic growth than other financial intermediaries.     

Internal vs External Financing of Acquisitions: Do Managers Squander Retained Profits?

It is often argued that managers who have control over investment finance are more likely to pursue their own goals while those who have to raise funds externally are effectively monitored by the financial markets. One implication is that externally finances investment should be more profitable than internally financed investment. We focus on investment in acquisitions and show that its negative net impact on profitability (as seen in previous studies) derives from externally, rather than internally, financed acquisitions. Our results therefore do not support the hypothesis that managers squander internal funds on poor investment projects. Indeed, the evidence suggests that capital markets and financial institutions do not appear to generate the anticipated beneficial effects.     

The no-arbitrage condition and financial markets with heterogeneous information

This paper examines the role of the no-arbitrage condition in financial markets with heterogeneous expectations. We consider a single-period, state-contingent claims model, withM risky securities andS states. There exist two types of heterogeneously informed investors, where the information heterogeneity is defined with respect to either the security payoff matrix, the state probability vector, or state partitions. When the information heterogeneity is defined with respect to either the security payoff matrix or state partitions, the no-arbitrage condition imposes a constraint on the dispersion of information between informed and uninformed investors. Further, the no-arbitrage condition is useful in ascertaining the patterns of heterogeneity among investors that are consistent with equilibrium. However, when the information heterogeneity is defined with respect to state probabilities, the role of the no-arbitrage condition is severely restricted. Finally, the no-arbitrage condition may have important implications for the (necessary and sufficient) conditions for the existence of an equilibrium price vector in financial markets with heterogeneous expectations.     

CEO财务背景丰富度对成本粘性的影响研究

以2012—2021年沪深A股上市公司为研究样本，探讨CEO财务背景丰富度对成本粘性的影响。研究发现，CEO财务背景丰富度对成本粘性有抑制作用，CFO财务执行力在CEO财务背景丰富度对成本粘性的影响关系中具有正向中介作用，环境动态性和环境包容性具有负向调节效应。异质性分析发现，CEO财务背景丰富度对成本粘性的抑制作用在成长期企业中更加显著，但不存在企业规模异质性；CFO财务执行力对中位数以下规模企业和成长期企业的中介作用更加显著；环境动态性和环境包容性对中位数以下规模企业和成长期企业的负向调节效应更加显著。     

WHO SHOULD REGULATE FINANCIAL INSTITUTIONS?

Financial market transactions involve complex decisions and significant amounts of information have to be processed by consumers. Economists often call for statutory regulation to overcome so-called 'information asymmetries.' However, the market will generally develop sophisticated institutions that are able to deal with such problems in financial markets. It is important that regulators do not impede the development of such institutions. The liberal market structure may not look like the market structures in many textbook models of so-called 'perfect' markets. However, the structure may well be efficient and welfare enhancing.     

Is there one safe-haven for various turbulences? The evidence from gold,Bitcoin and Ether

This paper aims to investigate the safe-haven properties of gold and two cryptocurrencies, Bitcoin and Ether. Safe havens are the financial assets that allow investors to protect their portfolios within the market turmoil. The research sample covers five years and includes several downturns on the financial markets, starting from the Chinese stock market turbulences in 2015/2016 and ending up with the recent pandemic outbreak in 2020. We find that only gold used to be a strong safe-haven against the stock market indices. Yet, this property evaporated during the crisis caused by the COVID pandemic. Occasionally, cryptocurrencies could have been considered weak safe-havens against the examined instruments. Ether acted more often as a weak safe-haven against DAX or S&P500, while Bitcoin played this role against FTSE250, STOXX600 and S&P500.     

Impact of investor’s varying risk aversion on the dynamics of asset price fluctuations

While investors’ responses to price changes and their price forecast have been identified as one of the major factors contributing to large price fluctuations in financial markets, our study shows that investors’ heterogeneous and dynamic risk aversion (DRA) preferences may play a more critical role in understanding the dynamics of asset price fluctuations. We allow an agent specific and time-dependent risk aversion index in a popular power utility function with constant relative risk aversion to construct our DRA model in which we made two key contributions. We developed an approximated closed-form price setting equation, providing a necessary framework for exploring the impact of various agents’ behaviors on the price dynamics. The dynamics of each agent’s risk aversion index is modeled by a bounded random walk with a constant variance, and such dynamics is incorporated in the price formula to form our DRA model. We show numerically that our model reproduces most of the “stylized” facts observed in the real data, suggesting that dynamic risk aversion is an important mechanism for understanding the dynamics of the financial market and the resultant financial time series.     

The impact ofThe Wall Street Journal’s closely watched reports on short-term interest rates

Using a reduced-form macroeconomic model, suggested by the Real Economic Activity hypothesis, in this study the authors examine the effect of certain economic indicators, published weekly byThe Wall Street Journal, on interest rates, for the period November 1987–November 1989. The results suggest that unexpected M3 announcements significantly affect market interest rates. However, there is no evidence of significant announcement effects for the other government statistics (new jobless claims, auto sales, M1, and M2). The evidence suggests that financial markets have not considered information in these economic announcements to be particularly newsworthy, in the face of M3 announcements.     

Global Financial Transmission of Monetary Policy Shocks*

The paper analyses the transmission of US monetary policy shocks to global equity markets and the macroeconomic determinants of the underlying transmission process. We show that there is a substantial cross‐country heterogeneity in reactions across 50 equity markets worldwide, with returns falling on average around 2.7% in response to a 100 basis point tightening of US monetary policy, but ranging from a zero response in some to a reaction of 5% or more in other markets. As to the determinants of the strength of transmission to individual countries, we test the relevance of their macroeconomic policies and the role of real and financial integration. We find that in particular the degree of global integration of countries – and not a country's bilateral integration with the United States – is a key determinant for the transmission process.     

Noise Trading and the Management of Operational Risk; Firms,Traders and Irrationality in Financial Markets*

abstract Efficient market models cannot explain the high level of trading in financial markets in terms of asset portfolio adjustment. It is presumed that much of this excessive trading is irrational ‘noise’ trading. A corollary is that there must either be irrational traders in the market or rational traders with irrational aberrations. The paper reviews the various attempts to explain noise trading in the finance literature, concluding that the persistence of irrationality is not well explained. Data from a study of 118 traders in four large investment banks are presented to advance reasons why traders might seek to trade more frequently than financial models predict. The argument is advanced that trades do not simply occur in order to generate profit, but it does not follow that such trading is irrational. Trading may generate information, accelerate learning, create commitments and enhance social capital, all of which sustain traders' long term survival in the market. The paper treats noise trading as a form of operational risk facing firms operating in financial markets and discusses approaches to the management of such risk.     

Life-cycle hypothesis, propensities to save, and demand for financial assets

In recent decades, the United States has not only experienced great economic changes in the financial markets but also undergone tremendous social and demographic transformations. Based on the life-cycle theory of consumption and saving, Keynes’s concept of marginal propensity to save, and Friedman’s theory of asset demand, this study shows that changes in sociodemographic conditions have significant impacts on the saving behavior of individuals in the financial markets. Findings indicate that the amounts of savings held in financial institutions for transactions, precautionary, and speculative motives differ substantially among individuals with divergent socio-economic characteristics. Regression results also show that individuals with different demographic backgrounds differ greatly in their propensities to save and hold financial assest with different degrees of liquidity and risk. The author is grateful to an anonymous referee for many valuable comments and to Thomas Palumbo, Michael Davern, Stephanie Shipp, and Arthur Kennickell for their suggestions. This paper reports the results of research and analysis undertaken by Census Bureau staff. It has undergone a more limited review than offical Census Bureau publications. This report is released to inform interested parties of research and to encourage discussion.     

The integration of international financial markets: an attempt to quantify contagion in an input–output-type analysis

ABSTRACT

The increasing integration of international financial markets means that credit defaults in one country have to be covered by creditors in other countries. If the principle of creditor liability were applied systematically, the financial losses incurred by the financial institution that provided the credit and is thus directly affected by the default would be ‘passed on’ through its domestic and foreign shareholders and debt holders, as well as their creditors, to the original savers. In this paper, this contagion effect will be estimated by taking international capital linkages into account. Analogously to an input–output analysis of inter-industry linkages, savings used for investments in one country are traced back to the countries from which the funds originated. This also reveals the important role of international financial centers, which essentially serve as distributors of investment risks, while the financial losses are ultimately borne by larger countries with higher levels of savings.     

The (im)possibility of ethics in the information age

This paper is concerned with the possibility that the ethical claim of the other, that sense of being bound to the other, may becoming more and more difficult to experience as information technology increasingly mediates our social being. The paper will support the supposition of Don Caputo that obligation does not emanate from codes, imperatives or moral arguments. Rather it will argue that obligation takes hold of us from within disaster. Obligation, our being bound-to, finds us when we come face to a face in disaster. The paper will argue that electronic mediation is inducing a sense of hyperreality into our world (Baudrillard). It will argue that this hyperreality is making our ethical sensibility nebulous to the point that we are not coming face to face with our obligations. An analysis of the Baring bank disaster will be used to demonstrate the point. The paper will show that Nick Leeson was in a hyperreal world in which he was not able to come face to face with the victims of the disaster. The electronic hyperreal world of financial markets, where traders deal in abstract numbers, movements on the screen, made it possible for him to look over and past the faces and proper names of the victims; their claim became diffused in the numbers on the screen, not real cash only numbers, not real people with faces and proper names, just numbers. If this supposition seems tenable what are we to do? The paper argues that we do not need more codes, imperatives or moral arguments, as such. Rather we need to keep our lives at the resolution, of faces and proper names—if obligation happens this is where it is likely to be.     

Institutions for Financial Development: What are they and where do they come from?

Abstract.  Among the fundamental causes of long-run economic performance, differences in 'institutions' have received considerable attention in recent years. At the same time, a large body of theoretical and empirical work shows that financial development can have a big effect on economic performance. This raises the more fundamental question as to why some countries have developed financial markets while others do not. This paper reviews the theoretical and empirical research on this issue and shows that one of the channels whereby better institutions may have an effect on economic development is through the consolidation of larger and better financial markets. An issue that is left aside in this paper relates to what regulations and policies lead to better functioning capital markets. At some level, one can think of regulations and policies as particular types of institutions. Nonetheless, institutional problems are deeper causes leading to poor economic performance; bad policies might simply be part of the channels through which they influence performance. Thus, addressing the question of what determines the emergence of 'good' institutions – i.e. institutions that promote financial development – seems particularly important. Recent research providing some answers to this question is also reviewed.     

Capital intensive education policy issues and problems

This paper describes some of the problems of today's mass schools and suggests that the technology is already available to replace them with more effective and efficient ones using capital intensive man-machine methods of instruction. It discusses some of the political and labor problems that may impede implementation and makes suggestions how these may be overcome.Research findings on the development of such schools are examined. A generalized model of such schools is presented based on a number of studies suggesting it will be substantially more cost-effective than its contemporary counterparts. The politics of change is discussed and specific strategies for implementation are suggested, the most immediate of which is the provision of federal or state funds for development of operating models of capital intensive schools. The key role of teacher union negotiations in facilitating or impeding changes is considered along with the present teacher union posture of opposition. It is suggested that teacher unions can best serve their own interests by cooperating in the development of capital intensive schools while bargaining to assure that their members share appropriately in the benefits of the improvements they bring.     

Insider,outsider and information heterogeneity

In financial markets, although the insider has superior information relative to the outsider, the outsider may possess some information the insider can’t precisely observe. This work investigates the impacts of information heterogeneity between the insider and outsider based on Foster and Viswanathan (1994). It shows that the less the insider knows about the outsider, the more she commits to aggressive trading, enabling her to earn more at the cost of outsider’s losses. Meanwhile, information heterogeneity improves the liquidity and benefits noise traders.     

Overnight stock returns and realized volatility

The information flow in modern financial markets is continuous, but major stock exchanges are open for trading for only a limited number of hours. No consensus has yet emerged on how to deal with overnight returns when calculating and forecasting realized volatility in markets where trading does not take place 24 hours a day. Based on a recently introduced formal testing procedure, we find that for the S&P 500 index, a realized volatility estimator that optimally incorporates overnight information is more accurate in-sample. In contrast, estimators that do not incorporate overnight information are more accurate for individual stocks. We also show that accounting for overnight returns may affect the conclusions drawn in an out-of-sample horserace of forecasting models. Finally, there is considerably less variation in the selection of the best out-of-sample forecasting model when only the most accurate in-sample RV estimators are considered.     

管理层过度自信、独立财务顾问与业绩承诺可靠性

以我国2008—2016年A股上市公司发起的并购重组交易事件为样本,研究了管理层过度自信的上市公司在并购和重大资产重组交易中是否具有更低的目标企业业绩承诺可靠性,以及选聘独立财务顾问是否有助于抑制管理层过度自信对于目标企业业绩承诺可靠性的不利影响。同时,进一步探究了不同特征独立财务顾问的差异及经济后果。研究结论显示：管理层过度自信的上市公司更大可能会对目标企业虚高的业绩承诺水平和盈利能力过于乐观,因而在并购交易完成后更容易面临业绩承诺不可靠的风险;整体而言,上市公司聘请独立财务顾问并没有使目标企业的业绩承诺不可靠问题得到有效缓解,独立财务顾问并没有发挥其应有的风险过滤职能;选聘独立财务顾问确实能显著提高存在管理层过度自信上市公司的业绩承诺可靠性,说明独立财务顾问确实能有效抑制管理层过度自信对目标企业业绩承诺可靠性的不利影响;进一步区分独立财务顾问的特征后发现,选聘目标企业所在地的独立财务顾问能更有效地缓解业绩承诺不可靠问题,但高声誉的独立财务顾问并没有呈现出更大的优势,表明上市公司在选聘独立财务顾问时,更注重地域特征,而非高声誉的独立财务顾问。     

Modelling contagion of financial crises

Inspired by the empirical findings, we include international traders to capture linkage between markets and propose a two-market heterogeneous agents model to simulate financial crisis with contagion effect. This paper manages to calibrate sudden crash behavior of US and UK stock markets during “Black Monday” of 1987 besides smooth crisis and disturbing crisis categorized in literature. It is implied that financial crisis and its contagion could be endogenous, which supports a scenario of over-valuation causing a financial crisis. In addition, the model shows that financial system could be fragile in which small shock(s) hitting individual market’s fundamental could cause financial crisis spreading to the other market. This also supports a scenario of external shock triggering a financial crisis. Lastly, to demonstrate the relevance of our model to financial markets, we manage to match typical stylized facts, especially cross-correlation which is exclusive to a multiple-market case.