Export variety and export performance: empirical evidence from East Asia

Does product variety matter for export performance? This has been suggested by the new trade theory. In the present paper, we investigate empirically whether increasing export variety has contributed to the export growth of 10 East Asian countries. In the paper we calculate direct measures of export variety and estimate pooled annual export equations for 10 East Asian countries. The econometric results suggest that producing highly differentiated export goods gives a competitive advantage which allows to sell more products.     

Trade openness and air pollution: City-level empirical evidence from China

We seek to contribute to the debate over trade openness and the environment by taking specific account of the endogeneity of trade openness. We use exogenous geographic determinants of trade as instrumental variables as well as distance to Huai River for identification which is based on China's heating policy. Using air quality measure from NASA, we find that trade increases three measures of air pollution: SO₂, NO₂, and Aerosol concentration.     

Linguistic and Religious Influences on Foreign Trade: Evidence from East Asia*

Using a modified gravity model and the cross‐sectional data of East Asian economies, the present paper presents evidence that supports the view that the effect of distance‐related transaction costs on trade tends to fall over time. Overall religious influence on foreign trade exists in the post‐Cold War period but not during the Cold War period. The effects of language on inter‐regional trade and of religion on intra‐regional trade both weaken over time. In all cases, religion tends to have more significant influences on intra‐regional trade than language, and language tends to exert more significant influences on inter‐regional trade than religion. Finally, from 1985 to 1995 there is an indication that: (i) English becomes more important for inter‐regional trade; (ii) Bahasa, English and Khmer become less important for intra‐regional trade; and (iii) Chinese plays an increasing role in both intra‐regional and inter‐regional trade.     

Asia/Pacific Regional Trade Agreements: An empirical study

At the same time as the General Agreement on Tariffs and Trade (GATT) and the World Trade Organization (WTO) have been encouraging trade liberalized, there has been a proliferation of Regional Trade Agreements (RTAs). These RTAs also aim to reduce trade barriers, but they do so it in a preferential way. There is continued debate as to whether such RTAs are an effective way of achieving free trade, or if increased trade among members causes less trade with non-member countries? If RTAs increase total trade, this is known as ‘trade creation’, whereas if the extra trade occurs at the expense of non-members, this is called ‘trade diversion’. Trade creation implies improved welfare, whereas ‘trade diversion’ may adversely affect welfare. This paper examines five different RTAs using a gravity model to see if they have been trade creating or trade diverting. Annual data from 26 countries covering five RTAs in the Asia and Pacific region for the years 1980–2000 was used.The results show that the effects of the different RTAs varied remarkably. The Association of South East Asian Nations (ASEAN) and the Australian and New Zealand Closer Economic Relations (CER) fostered greater trade with trading partners and with the rest of the world. While the Asian Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC), the Southern Cone Common Market (MERCOSUR) and the North American Free Trade Association (NAFTA) tended to be trade diverting, that is, they expanded intra-bloc trade at the expense of trade with others.     

Tracing Trade Interdependence between EU and East Asia

Abstract

There have been two related trends shaping global trade during the past couple of decades: the increasing role of international supply chains and the rise of China. Increased complexity in global trade has generated a need to construct more processed trade data — trade in value added — in order to deepen our understanding of trade relations between countries. In this article, we present a broad picture of trade in value added between the EU28 and East Asian countries. We find that East Asia is important as a final demand and supply chain export destination, especially for Northern European countries, while for CEE countries it is more important as an import source for both final demand and supply chain trade. Trade with East Asia is least important for Southern European countries. The production structure of an EU country seems to be one of the main factors explaining the importance of supply chain trade with East Asian countries. The data also suggest that supply chain trade could support the growth of domestic value-added exports to the supply chain trade partner country as well as to other countries.     

Measuring trade creation effects of free trade agreements: Evidence from wine trade in East Asia

East Asia has experienced an unprecedented expansion in its wine market over the past two decades. This paper examines the extent to which import tariff reductions through bilateral free trade agreements (FTAs) have contributed to an increase in wine imports to Japan, China, and South Korea. Our empirical method involves estimating an augmented version of the gravity equation by the Poisson pseudo-maximum likelihood (PPML) technique. Analyzing a panel dataset for 1990–2016 covering 27 exporters, we find that overall a 1 percentage point reduction in tariff among FTA member countries is associated with an increase in the wine import volumes by 0.042%, which is seven times higher than a similar reduction in tariff on an MFN basis. The strongest trade creation effects are founded for bottle wine. The results are robust to various specifications.     

Trade intensity and business cycle synchronization: East Asia versus Europe

This paper provides a comparative analysis of the relationship between trade intensities and synchronization of business cycles in East Asia and Europe (EU-15). It extends the work of Shin and Wang, 2004, Shin and Wang, 2005 by providing a comparative perspective between East Asia and Europe. The paper finds that intra-industry trade, rather than inter-industry trade, is the major factor in explaining business cycle co-movements in both regions. The paper also supports the hypothesis that the relationship between trade intensity and output co-movement is stronger in East Asia than in Europe. The major policy implication of this finding is that East Asia needs to further strengthen macroeconomic policy coordination within the region.     

东亚双边出口贸易流量与潜力:贸易引力模型的实证研究

本文利用东亚1995-2004年面板数据建立东亚贸易引力模型,对东亚区域内出口贸易流量的影响因素和潜力进行研究。研究显示,经济规模、中国-中国香港地区更紧密经贸关系(CEPA)、中国-东盟自由贸易区(ACFTA)、经济制度、经济发展水平差距、国际直接投资、国家间地理距离和金融危机是东亚双边出口贸易流量的主要影响因素。     

中国在东亚地区贸易结构中的地位和作用——基于零部件贸易的研究

本文从零部件贸易的角度分析了中国在东亚贸易结构中的地位。文中计算了中国和其他东亚经济体1992～2005年的零部件贸易额,在大量事实数据的基础上得出结论:中国在东亚地区以零部件进口为主,而与区域外市场之间以最终产品出口为主。同时,随着中国经济逐渐融入到东亚地区的生产网络中,东亚地区的"三角贸易"模式发生了转变:中国成为东亚地区的出口平台,进口来自于区域内较发达经济体的中间产品零部件,进行装配加工后将最终产品销往区域外市场。     

东亚地区贸易时间与贸易持续优势研究

在各国关税已经下降到很低的水平及中间产品贸易盛行的情况下,贸易时间对国际贸易的影响愈发明显。本文把贸易时间分为贸易便利时间和物流时间,通过研究发现,贸易时间与贸易量呈现显著的负相关关系,而且物流时间比贸易便利时间的影响更大。此外,贸易时间对时间敏感产品贸易的影响,比时间不敏感产品更加显著。     

东亚产业内贸易发展状况及原因分析

近年来,东亚地区产业内贸易发展十分迅速。本文对东亚10个主要经济体1992-2005年的产业内贸易发展状况进行了实证分析。研究结果表明,产业内贸易已经成为东亚的主要贸易形式。在各类产品中,机械和运输设备(SITC7)的产业内贸易程度最高,且提高最快。产业内贸易发展的原因在于东亚地区产业内分工的不断深化以及基于生产环节专业化分工的产品零部件贸易的迅速发展。     

"浅层次"易一体化:东亚区域经济合作新模式

以东亚为代表的"异质"结构成员间的区域一体化进程,不仅表现出制度协调的特征,同时体现出一段较长时期的基于垂直专业化分工的"浅层次"贸易一体化的阶段.贸易一体化是"异质"结构成员间区域经济合作的初级阶段,"浅层次"贸易一体化是贸易一体化的阶段之一,是东亚区域经济合作新的模式,建立区域生产网络是目前东亚进行"浅层次"贸易一体化,从而推进区域经济合作的主要形式.     

区域贸易协定的非传统收益:理论、评述及其在东亚的应用

区域贸易协定(RTAs)在数量、范围以及深度上的迅速发展是当今国际经济领域中的一个重要现象。对于RTAs大量涌现的原因,传统的国际经济一体化理论已不能很好地做出解释了。本文介绍了区域贸易协定的非传统收益理论,即区域贸易协定在保持政策的连贯性、发信号、提供保险、增强讨价还价能力、协调一致机制等方面为成员国带来的新的收益,并对该理论进行了简单评述。笔者认为,对于用传统国际经济理论所不能解释的现象,这种理论提供了新的视角,具有很强的解释力,但也存在着一些不足。另外,本文还运用区域贸易协定的非传统收益理论对东亚自由贸易区进行了分析。     

中国在东亚区域内的进口贸易分析

从"三角贸易"到"新三角贸易",东亚地区贸易模式都未能摆脱对外部市场的高度依赖,特别是对美国市场的依赖。中国作为区域内经济贸易大国,随着经济改革的日益深入及增长方式的转变,其在东亚区域贸易分工模式转变中的地位及作用将不断增强。本文以中国在东亚区域内的重要贸易伙伴国为研究对象,从世界和东亚两个区域范围入手,以进口份额分布与进口增长率分解指标按进口来源地和按产品分类的分布分别进行静态和动态分析,在此基础上对中国市场在东亚区域内的地位及作用进行深入研究。     

国际贸易理论的新发展与东亚实践

企业活动的国际化在东亚日渐形成的国际分工体制中是个极其重要的关键因素,探索其为何要走向国际化,对我国参与国际分工、特别是积极实施"走出去"战略,显然具有适时和现实的实践意义.在当前分工最活跃的东亚地区,这些理论的新发展正在被实践所证实.     

北美自由贸易区与东亚贸易和投资关系的实证分析

当前学术界关于区域经济一体化的研究中,关于区域间经济关系的研究、特别是实证分析很少。笔者通过近一年的研究,尝试以北美自由贸易区和东亚区域贸易和投资关系作为突破口,通过大量数据计算分析两区域贸易和投资的现状,并希望所得出的数据和结论对将来的区域间经济关系研究有一定帮助。     

Linkages between Trade and Financial Integration and Output Growth in East Asia

The effects of trade, financial and other variables generally seen as indicative of the degree of economic integration on movements in industrial production growth among countries in East Asia are assessed using the common component of movements in industrial production growth in the ASEAN 5 + 3 countries as a business cycle benchmark for the region. The results show the dominance of trade-related variables, as well as the world price of oil, in driving regional industrial production growth. Financial variables, while important, are not as robust.     

中国和东亚经济:从过去展望未来

如果我们想了解中国最近的经济增长以及它所面临的问题,一个非常有用的信息就是要参考过去的一些趋势,尤其是东亚经济过去发展的一些模式,因为我们可以看到中国与东亚的日本、四小龙以及这些国家和地区三十年前的发展是非常类似的.