Host countries’ growth opportunities and China's outward FDI

In 2014, China proposed the Belt and Road policy, which has pushed China's outward foreign direct investment (OFDI) to over tens of billions of US dollars. However, existing studies have not reached a consensus about the decisive factors in China's OFDI. To verify whether China's OFDI activities are motivated by profits, this paper applies a measure of country‐specific growth opportunities adopted by Bekaert et al. (2007) to measure the growth opportunities of the target countries for China's OFDI. A multinational panel data model, based on data from 51 countries from 2003 to 2012, is used to explore the relationship between host countries’ growth opportunities and China's OFDI. Overall, the analysis finds that China's OFDI does not follow the host countries’ growth opportunities but exhibits different features toward developed countries and developing countries. For developed countries, China's OFDI follows host countries’ growth opportunities to some extent. In the case of developing countries, China's OFDI does not follow host countries’ growth opportunities. When we consider factors such as a host country's financial development and political stability, improvement in these factors improves the attractiveness of the host country to China's OFDI. It is also found that the 2008 global financial crisis did not have a very significant impact on China's OFDI activities.     

对外直接投资对投资国经济效应的文献综述

随着跨国投资规模的日益扩大,中国作为积极谋求发展的发展中大国及世贸组织成员,资本流向模式正发生着转变,从"吸引外资"到"对外投资",这是中国经济对外开放的战略转折点.从国内外两方面对国际投资的主要理论观点和实证研究进行梳理,对中国对外直接投资具有重要的理论和现实意义.     

FDI与中国能源利用效率:政府扮演着怎样的角色?

文章以政府为切入点,利用1998～2016年中国省际面板数据与动态面板的共同相关估计(DCCE)模型,研究了全球化进程中FDI的流入在政府效率与环境规制的作用下对中国地方能源利用效率的影响。研究发现,全球化背景下,FDI的进入可以通过技术溢出等效应降低地方的能源强度从而改善能源效率,中西部地区的能源效率在FDI的作用下有向东部地区收敛的趋势。此外,为了验证政府在能源问题当中所扮演的角色及发挥作用的机制,文章将政府效率与环境规制强度纳入到模型中进行检验,检验结果表明,一方面,政府执政效率与环境规制强度的提高同样可以起到改善能源利用效率的作用,另一方面,在提高能源利用效率的问题上政府与FDI之间表现出一定程度的替代效应。由此可知,强化政府在市场中的作用,提高其配置资源的水平与效率,将是解决中国能源问题的重要一环。     

China's FDI and non-FDI economies and the sustainability of future high Chinese growth

This paper presents and assesses of the contribution of inward FDI to China's recent rapid economic growth using a two stage growth accounting approach. Recent econometric literature focuses on testing whether Chinese growth depends on inward FDI rather than measuring the contribution. Foreign Invested Enterprises (FIEs), often (but not exclusively) are joint ventures between foreign companies and Chinese enterprises, and can be thought of as forming a distinctive subpart of the Chinese economy. These enterprises account for over 50% of China's exports and 60% of China's imports. Their share in Chinese GDP has been over 20% in the last two years, but they employ only 3% of the workforce, since their average labor productivity exceeds that of Non-FIEs by around 9:1. Their production is more heavily for export rather than the domestic market because FIEs provide access to both distribution systems abroad and product design for export markets. Our decomposition results indicate that China's FIEs may have contributed over 40% of China's economic growth in 2003 and 2004, and without this inward FDI, China's overall GDP growth rate could have been around 3.4 percentage points lower. We suggest that the sustainability of both China' export and overall economic growth may be questionable if inward FDI plateaus in the future.     

中国对外直接投资的发展趋势与政策展望

中国已是世界上对外直接投资最大的发展中国家,也是全球第五大对外直接投资大国。中国对外直接投资与发达国家和发展中国家过去的投资模式不同,而是遵循一种价值链延伸型的发展趋势。中国的对外投资政策,已经朝着符合中国对外直接投资发展趋势的方向改变,但是,不管是战略层面,还是核准与管理制度层面,以及促进政策方面,要有效地支持中国当前和未来相当长一段时期内的价值链延伸型为主的对外直接投资,还需做出一些调整。     

环境管制对中国FDI的影响研究——基于直接和间接两个效应视角

现有研究一般仅考虑环境管制对FDI的负面直接影响作用,却忽视了考察环境管制通过刺激企业提高环境技术水平而影响FDI这一间接效应,此外,大多数文献将环境管制作为绝对的外生变量,因而造成了估计结果的有偏且不一致。基于此,文章从理论层面上研究了环境管制对FDI的影响机制,从实证层面上应用动态面板模型(GMM)考察了环境管制对FDI的直接和间接两方面效应并试图缓解内生性。研究发现,从直接效应上看,环境管制对FDI仍然存在较大的"门槛效应",间接效应的存在虽然在估计中降低了环境管制对FDI的直接负面影响,但总体上看直接效应仍然是影响环境管制与FDI关系的主导效应。由此可见,在我国产业结构不断优化的同时,合理使用环境管制政策作为"筛选"和"调配"外资的重要工具对于优化外资结构、营造和谐文明的生态环境具有重大意义。     

Institutions and FDI location choice: The role of cultural distances

Using an extensive data set on foreign invested enterprises (FIEs) in the Chinese mainland, we compare the sensitivities of the location choice of foreign direct investment (FDI) from six major source countries/areas (Hong Kong, Taiwan, US, EU, Japan and Korea) toward the variation in the strength of economic institutions across China's regions. It is found that FIEs from the source countries/areas that are culturally more remote from China often exhibit a stronger aversion to regions with weaker economic institutions. Moreover, this pattern is often more salient when FDI takes the form of fully-owned enterprises (FOEs) than when it takes the form of joint ventures (JVs).     

分割生产、外商直接投资与中国进口

关于分割生产的研究表明,直接投资和国际贸易的关系既非单调的,也非确定不变的。如果考察的国家或行业之间引发直接投资的原因不一样,或者处于不同的分割生产发展阶段时,得出的直接投资和国际贸易的关系是不一样的。现实中的直接投资和国际贸易关系实际上是一个实证问题。基于1987～2006年中国29个省市数据变系数模型的研究表明:对于绝大多数省份来说,FDI引起进口的增加;从不同省份看,FDI对进口的影响程度是不同的;近年来FDI对中国进口的促进作用在减弱。     

外商直接投资对我国资本形成影响的实证研究

FDI在直接给东道国带来一定资本增量的同时,还会对国内资本产生一定的“挤出”或“挤入”效应。因此,FDI对东道国资本形成的影响是确定的,取决于它最终“挤入”还是“挤出”了国内资本。本文实证研究的结果表明,FDI虽然对我国国内资本的“挤出”效应和“挤入”效应并存,但总体上有一个“净挤入”的效果,因此,FDI促进了我国的资本形成。     

The role of FDI in domestic exporting: Evidence from China

This paper investigates the impact of FDI on domestic exporting firms. We show that domestic firms respond to an increase in the presence of FDI by increasing their exports even though the increase in foreign presence can drive up production costs and make the domestic market more profitable. Our test case for this hypothesis is China, where we confirm the significant positive impact of FDI on domestic firms’ exports. This finding sheds light on the massive exports and rapid inflow of foreign investment that have been observed in China in the past three decades.     

FDI与中国公共行政改革关联性分析

中国公共行政改革的动力源是多元化的,外商直接投资(FDI)与中国行政改革的相互作用不易描述,两者的关联性较为模糊。FDI催生了经济环境中新的非官方政策活动者,间接推动公共行政制度创新,客观要求政府经济治理方式转变,执行"优异治理"或"善政",并通过对思想库的贡献影响公共政策,对这些关联性的分析和认识有助中国公共管理改革进一步发展。     

FDI and productivity convergence in Central and Eastern Europe: an industry-level investigation

This paper presents empirical evidence of the effect of FDI inflows on productivity convergence in Central and Eastern Europe, using a new and harmonized industry-level data set. Four conclusions stand out. First, there is a strong convergence effect in productivity, both at the country and at the industry level. Second, FDI inflow plays an important role in accounting for productivity growth. Third, the impact of FDI on productivity critically depends on the absorptive capacity of recipient countries and industries. Fourth, there is important heterogeneity across countries, industries and time with respect to some of the main findings.     

多维视角下FDI流入的中国贸易条件效应

最近十几年,FDI流入对中国所产生的贸易条件效应出现了新的变化。FDI流入对中国产生了"工资外溢"效应,但并没能通过该效应改善其价格贸易条件;FDI流入没有从根本上改善中国的贸易结构,从而导致较大的价格贸易条件波动性。FDI流入的大幅增加,使得中国对外贸易出口数量也大幅增加,从而在很大程度上弥补了中国价格贸易条件的恶化,带来了其收入贸易条件的改善。相对而言,FDI流入对中国的单要素及多要素贸易条件的改善幅度远小于收入贸易条件,因此,中国在大量引入FDI的同时,应大力提高生产率和技术水平,实现其单要素贸易条件和双要素贸易条件的改善最大化。     

Manufacturing productivity in China and India: The role of institutional changes

In this paper we undertake a comparative study of productivity in the manufacturing sector for China and India using data from survey of manufacturing industries for the two countries. We find that productivity of manufacturing industries in China relative to that in India improved substantially over the 1998–2003 period. Specifically, the average total factor productivity (TFP) growth for the manufacturing sector over this period was about 11% higher in China than in India. We document two substantial changes in government policies in China that were not witnessed in India. First, the late 1990s saw an enormous wave of ownership restructuring due to the formal endorsement of private property rights by the Chinese central government. Second, in 1997 a large scale labour retrenchment program was launched to address the long standing problem of labour redundancy in the public sector. Using data from the Chinese survey of manufacturing industries, we quantify the impact of these large scale institutional changes on TFP of Chinese manufacturing industries. We find that these policy changes can explain about 30% of the growth in TFP of manufacturing industries. Hence we conclude that these institutional changes in China can account for a significant part of the gains in productivity of manufacturing industries in China relative to that in India over the 1998–2003 period.     

外商直接投资与中国制造业的污染排放:基于行业投入-产出的分析

本文基于环境投入-产出模型,选取我国制造业15部门为研究对象,利用中国2002年和2005年可比价投入产出表以及3种环境污染物排放数据,全面衡量FDI流入我国制造业对3种污染物排放的直接和间接影响。研究结果发现:(1)我国制造业单位产出3种污染物的排放数量逐年降低;(2)FDI主要流入制造业中相对清洁的部门;(3)FDI大量流入的清洁部门通过产业关联导致其他制造业部门污染物排放增加,"污染避难所"假说在中国并不成立的论断存在一定局限性,需要重新修订;(4)从产业投入产出的角度来看,制造业中相对污染密集的行业其污染排放受到其他行业的需求拉动影响较大,而相对清洁行业对其他行业污染排放的拉动较强。     

FDI促进中国各地区产业结构优化的门限效应研究

本文以市场化程度作为主要制度因素,分析了制度在FDI影响中国各地区产业结构优化升级中所发挥的调节作用。本文用1999~2009年全国30个省(市)的市场化指数作为门限变量,以第三产业占GDP之比作为产业结构优化的代理变量,实证检验了外资进入程度对各地区产业结构优化升级的门限效应。结果显示,外资进入程度对中国各地区产业结构优化的影响存在显著的市场化门限效应,市场化程度越高,外资进入对产业结构优化升级越具有促进作用。     

我国港口业跨国直接投资的动因及策略

本文运用邓宁提出的国际直接投资经典理论,梳理港口业海外投资的动因,检讨中国港口业海外投资的现状及问题,并在此基础上对国内港口企业走出去策略提供建议,包括循序渐进,以非投资形式先行积累海外经验;适当运用跨国并购,获取所缺的海外投资必备优势;与当地港口运营商和大船公司等结盟;格外关注区位选择及其风险防范等。     

Heterogeneous multinational firms and productivity gains from falling FDI barriers

This paper quantitatively assesses the impact of falling foreign direct investment (FDI) barriers on individual firms and its implications for intra-industry reallocation and aggregate productivity. We calibrate the firm-heterogeneity model of Eaton et al. (Econometrica 79(5):1453–1498, 2011) to match micro-level data on Japanese multinational firms facing fixed and variable costs of foreign production. We demonstrate that the calibrated model can be used to replicate the entry and sales patterns of Japanese multinationals. Counterfactual simulations show that declining FDI barriers lead to a disproportionate expansion of foreign production by more efficient firms relative to less efficient firms. A hypothetical 20 % reduction in FDI barriers is found to generate up to a 26.8 % improvement in industry-level productivity through global market-share reallocations within the industry. Compared with fixed entry barriers, reallocation effects and productivity gains are larger for a reduction of variable costs of foreign production.     

Agglomeration and productivity: Firm-level evidence from China's textile industry

Is the spatial concentration of manufacturing activity able to enhance firm-level productivity? This question is particularly relevant to production in China, which has a huge territory and population, but a skewed distribution in terms of urban–rural development. This paper aims to examine the dynamics of industrial agglomeration and the impact of agglomeration on firm-level productivity in China's textile industry by using a firm-level panel dataset from 2000 to 2005. First, the average value of the Ellison–Glaeser (EG) index (city level) is found to be approximately 0.00019. Moreover, the calculated city EG index of spatial concentration for each year exhibits a decreasing trend of spatial agglomeration for garments and other fiber products, but an increasing trend for the textile industries' agglomeration in China. The above findings are similar to the findings of Lu and Tao (2009). Secondly and importantly, this study finds an inverted U-shape relationship between agglomeration and productivity. It suggests that while industrial agglomeration enhances firms' productivity, agglomeration diseconomies may appear if the degree of agglomeration is too high.